A good observer makes a better speculator

[Zilon]

There are lot of criteria that must be considered to become good in price speculation but i will like to see how far an observer can go with speculating Bitcoin price and maybe some few good altcoin out there. When it comes to speculation been active with price movement and managing greed level can also play a big factor in deciding the level of accuracy and precision once speculation can go this two seems much more easier compared to becoming diligent in observation.

Observation is one aspect of speculation that even the pro-speculator still battle with. We will all agree that price is never consistent with the market because crypto assets are highly volatile and so therefore been observant on the regular changes as regards price, what triggered the change, how much of the effect was seen on the market as regard the cause of the change and how often this change in has occurred in the market.

As regards Bitcoin which has been ranging around $19k for a while now there is a long bullish candle formed on 23rd October 2022 around 18:00 GMT +1 where price moved from $19,200 to around $19,611 before the bearish engilfing candle pushed price down at a resistance zone keeping the trade on till the next day 24th October 2022. It might not be a very significant change but that long Bullish candle is sending a strong future message because since then we haven't seen a bearish candle that has contended with it till date. It can be a powerful signal to keep buyers at alert for possible bull run maybe a short one or a long term push.


Like i mentioned earlier the effect might not be immediate on the price but i believe it is a message for a some positive future moves

[Tytanowy Janusz]

long bullish candle formed on 23rd October 2022 around 18:00 GMT +1 where price moved from $19,200 to around $19,611

Its not that this candle was long or strong. Its the scale that makes it looks like that. Bitcoin is locked in consolidation for last 4 months. Volatility is constantly going down. Last 1.5 month bitcoin is going super flat. Thats why as small as 400$/2% daily candle looks so impressive on small scale. But not so long ago we've seen 5x longer candles -f.e 10% daily bullish candle 09.09.2022 19200-21300. Or 10x stronger -4000$ daily bearish candle 26500-22400 (-15%) in 13.06.2022

[Zilon]

Its not that this candle was long or strong. Its the scale that makes it looks like that. Bitcoin is locked in consolidation for last 4 months. Volatility is constantly going down. Last 1.5 month bitcoin is going super flat. Thats why as small as 400$/2% daily candle looks so impressive on small scale. But not so long ago we've seen 5x longer candles -f.e 10% daily bullish candle 09.09.2022 19200-21300. Or 10x stronger -4000$ daily bearish candle 26500-22400 (-15%) in 13.06.2022

If it is scale that makes it look like that as you claim meaning there way large amount of transaction in that very 4hrs candle trading time where the body is far bigger than the wick. Be observant enough the last time we had similar candle stick around 0ctober 19' on a 4hrs chart price hasn't close below that very candle you can check your chart to confirm. I am not saying this is a buy signal but it is a call for alertness we might be expecting a small price action anytime soon.

[_BlackStar]

It might not be a very significant change but that long Bullish candle is sending a strong future message because since then we haven't seen a bearish candle that has contended with it till date. It can be a powerful signal to keep buyers at alert for possible bull run maybe a short one or a long term push.

Say it's not financial advice, I hope people understand.
Zilon, you can believe in whatever you believe to be right and you are free to do it for yourself but try to send a message to the readers that all this is just an analysis that cannot fully guarantee a profit.

I'm not a day trader and I think I've been ignoring this for a long time. I tend to buy in dips, while trying to save my real-world monthly income for investment. In the short term or daily, I think the candle will really help the trader to maximize profit opportunities, but about the long term I think I really should ignore the small shocks.

[GeorgeJohn]

Actually you are right from the caution of the thread, concerning a observer makes a positive speculation, actually some traders might feel that they are good observer base on the way they interprets the movement of their candle sticks, and that is the perception i can disagree with the caution of the subject. In chat you can speculate due to your observation base your ability to decode the candles movement as i portray from initial.

[ginsan]

honestly it's worth considering in the context that every observer has their own pattern in every movement of the candles they paint. It's natural that there are many observers in this forum and outside the forum I mean on social media, Twitter, many observers share about the analysis of price movements today and tomorrow. but if we look at it at a glance everything is almost similar in the style of analysis that is shared. maybe for me as a futures trader it will be useful to compare with the analysis I use but the fact is that there are often discrepancies when the market situation changes rapidly. perhaps an important option, the more wise observers, the more helpful it is for traders to find the best level of accuracy.

[STT]

We've made 3 attempts in 11 days to break the weekly and monthly averages, its passed each time but failed to set above on any high, we have fallen back each time.    I dont know if some will take this as bearish because we've tried and failed, but I take that 3 occurrences to break this range occurred so close together is probably quite bullish to the energy BTC retains for movement.   It doesn't feel we are too threatened downwards. most sellers are already done and gone.   Anyone selling now most likely bought at a price nearby and just wanted a bet, it didnt pay off so they leave but sum total is that we dont move much as great belief to make big bets is not there.   The wider market is bone dry from a lack of liquidity, all we remain with then is a far slower more boring BTC trend minus the hot money hoping for large gains.
   Observation without bias is hard to do, my take from us going sideways is mostly patience is required and information hour by hour or even daily is not there; dont spin your wheels sitting at a red light.   Adjust your pace to suit the terrain its just a slow drift with an empty sky,   A steady price can be a positive for some business, I dont assume its a negative from our own personal bias of wanting to trade difference in prices when others just want this flat price and price stability helps them.   Underlying BTC continues on fine and this price only appears low if we ignore beyond 2 years.

[sheenshane]

People have a different approach to the market but that's right, an observer has more advantages than those people who didn't have an idea of how the market going on and dive into it easily thinking that they will gain profit as easily by investing in crypto.  Different sources might be useful too to predict the market price though isn't accurate but at least you know it already the possible consequences.

It's very crucial if you're a day trader, there are too many patterns that you need to watch and observe to be a better speculator.

[Fundamentals Of]

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

[GreatArkansas]

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

Yeah, because you will familiarize the market, how it moves, how it behaves, how it reacts.
Let's say for example there is a lot of news negative or positive news about Bitcoin or even FUD, then you will be ready for how the price of Bitcoin will react especially since you already experienced that multiple times and you are already used to it. It will really help you.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Though I agree that a good observation is necessary to verify knowledge, indicators you learn and recognize signals from the market, a good observer is not enough as you must be very disciplined to change your idea, plan to real order activities that work for you.

Bad disciplined is one of biggest drawbacks that prevent most of investors and traders can not get profit in the market. The majority are undisciplined, impatient and emotional responsive, hence they are losers.

You control your computer, laptop, smart phone and keyboard, touch pad so if you can not control what you are doing, nobody can help you.

[MainIbem]

Sorry to ask on what time frame are you making your view from, keep in mind you might not have same view with others if they aren't using same time frame with you. The bitcoin market is hard to be speculated mostly few people have gotten many conclusion in the past about the price and yet we don't still gets to what they said, so then I concluded bitcoin price are magical where none can predicts it the way it seems.

[EarnOnVictor]

Hope you will not scatter my brain with this observation and speculation conspiracy, just call it one as you deem best for you, yet I prefer to call it speculation. They are synonymous with each other so far they are good enough to spot a good trading decision for you. But you seem not to be a good speculator if your chart and explanations are still lacking the timeframe to back your point. Additionally, my advice to you is to use beyond price action if you want your accuracy to be high.

[_BlackStar]

Though I agree that a good observation is necessary to verify knowledge, indicators you learn and recognize signals from the market, a good observer is not enough as you must be very disciplined to change your idea, plan to real order activities that work for you.

Bad disciplined is one of biggest drawbacks that prevent most of investors and traders can not get profit in the market. The majority are undisciplined, impatient and emotional responsive, hence they are losers.

You control your computer, laptop, smart phone and keyboard, touch pad so if you can not control what you are doing, nobody can help you.

In fact nothing is perfect but at least a few things can help. Experience, expertise, observation, and courage in decision making, as well as emotional control are some of the things that will be very influential. Of course it is clear that these things will really help the trader to get good results, but not all of them will achieve perfect.

[aylabadia05]

In terms of market observations, each observer has a different view in his efforts to approach the profit point. I can say the speculation is born of those who choose to day trade. By any other name, they are day traders. Their strategies are also definitely different.
What you say is not wrong. For me, it is a part that must be considered as a form of caution. If we try to offer this kind of speculation to long-term traders, maybe they will refuse in a wise way to avoid misunderstandings.

[Queentoshi]

Observation is an important skill anywhere, A good observer of the market movement will make a good speculator. To become a good speculator, learning to be observant is a must. To become better in speculating, these are some advice from more experienced speculators.
Never act on tips, There are times when you should speculate and times when you should not, Anticipate the psychological effect of a particular piece of news on the mind of the public, Learn to recognize danger signals.

Learn more from professional speculators here: https://guerric.co.uk/how-to-speculate/

[Zilon]

Bitcoin has seen over +3.85% in the last 24hours. There is a strong indication 26th of October will end Bullish as well, After wards we enjoy a little of range market for a while before the market decides where next to move. A little profit for the buyers and more profit for the holders. Traders will have some fun night tonight especially the day traders who go long most often. After the first two candle stick breaking the morning of 26th it will be more riskier for day traders to join the trend except the 4 hrs candle stick keeps closing with a higher wick and a lower body.

[Fundamentals Of]

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

Yeah, because you will familiarize the market, how it moves, how it behaves, how it reacts.
Let's say for example there is a lot of news negative or positive news about Bitcoin or even FUD, then you will be ready for how the price of Bitcoin will react especially since you already experienced that multiple times and you are already used to it. It will really help you.

That's true. If you heard about a big bad news that is related to Bitcoin in one way or another, you would understand if the price would react negatively like what happened when Elon suddenly announced that Tesla has stopped accepting Bitcoin payment or when China announced it bans mining. But as somebody who has been with Bitcoin for a long time, you wouldn't panic or be worried. Such situations couldn't affect you anymore.

[jostorres]

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

I think it's more easier to predict short term than long term because a lot of things can happen in the long term which could affect the flow of the price. Not only newbies but all are affected whenever there's a correction and bears. All of our portfolio goes down but maybe it's true that more newbies can panic though it's also possible for a newbie to study the market first so that they will know what to expect on here.

A lot of us in the forum are experienced btc users but we are still hoping that the price will now recover. If you aren't really bothered then you aren't supposed to be here in this forum joining the discussion about the bears and correction.

[Fundamentals Of]

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

I think it's more easier to predict short term than long term because a lot of things can happen in the long term which could affect the flow of the price. Not only newbies but all are affected whenever there's a correction and bears. All of our portfolio goes down but maybe it's true that more newbies can panic though it's also possible for a newbie to study the market first so that they will know what to expect on here.

A lot of us in the forum are experienced btc users but we are still hoping that the price will now recover. If you aren't really bothered then you aren't supposed to be here in this forum joining the discussion about the bears and correction.

Are you a successful trader? Have you made a lot of money in trading? Because that's precisely the implication of what you're saying, that it is easier to predict short term price movements than long term. So tell me, what's your price prediction of Bitcoin tomorrow? In the next 3 days? Or next week? What's going to be the price of Bitcoin next month?

Here's my long-term prediction: Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2025. That's an easy prediction.

The forum is not exclusively made up of people who are discussing about bears and corrections. If that's what you think is the purpose of this forum, I'm sure you're wrong.