In a post abundance economy, which commodities and assets would appreciate most

[Hydrogen]

We have recently witnessed firewood and wood stove sales rise dramatically in response to higher electrical bills and natural gas shortages.

Rising fuel costs spark rush to buy firewood and stoves for home heating

Earlier this year, National Grid, which supplies natural gas and electricity across much of the Capital Region and upstate New York, predicted that heating bills will rise 31 percent during the five-month winter heating period that starts in November. The average residential customer is expected to pay $651 over the five-month period, or an increase of $155. It’s the biggest increase in more than a decade.

Other forms of heating are going up as well.

Propane, derived from natural gas and which is popular in rural locations without gas line hookups, was selling for $3.46 a gallon in September, according to the New York State Energy Research and Development Agency, NYSERDA. In 2020 it was $2.46 a gallon.

Electricity is up almost 46 percent year over year as of June, according to NYSERDA.

With high demand, wood costs are also rising. Some providers like Advantage Tree Service in Delmar, have held prices at $395 per cord delivered (within a five mile radius) for the past two years.

But others are charging more this year, although some charged under $300 in past years.

A cord is 128 cubic feet of stacked wood, or 4-by-8 feet of 4-foot long split logs.

Homeowners also are shopping for more wood stoves.

Wood stoves are currently in short supply in part because of tougher EPA emissions rules that took effect in 2020. Stoves made prior to May 2020, when the new regulations took effect, had to be dismantled.

The newer stoves are far cleaner and more efficient than their older cousins, but the new regulations took tens of thousands of stoves, that had already been manufactured, off the market.

https://www.timesunion.com/business/article/Rising-fuel-costs-spark-rush-to-buy-firewood-and-17507751.php

It appears fire wood and wood burning stoves could be the next bitcoin. These trends emphasize high price volatility which can occur in response to market trends and shifting demand. If it were possible to purchase crypto tokens pegged to the value of firewood and wood stoves, it would be profitable. Although not the most ethical financial move given the profits would come at some expense of negative consumer sentiment.

With war in ukraine and other crisis on the horizon. It is possible markets will witness other such fluctuations in the future. While we cannot necessarily prevent these large scale crisis from occurring. We can prepare for the future by investing in things that will be future profitable to reduce negative fallout from inflation and other market losses of efficiency.

In the past I covered agriculture and food being one potential market to HODL if food shortages occur. Are there other examples of good HODL content for future market trends?

Given how the cost of lumber and wood has increased. Perhaps raw materials are worth looking into. Rising fossil fuel prices could negatively impact offshore sources of raw materials, which might increase demand in local markets. If this occurs, could it be leveraged and invested in for HODL motives.

While precious metals are often emphasized as being good recession and inflation performing asets. Due to metals like gold having real world application in electronics and aerospace indutriess in addition to limited supply. There is an angle to precious metals HODL where we lack a sound infrastructure for using precious metals assets as a form of barter or trade. Perhaps this could become a larger issue in the future if rolling blackouts and similar issues intensify.

Long story short do we have good buy ins aside from firewood and wood stoves?

[DooMAD]

I was wondering if a generator might be a shrewd investment, given talks of potential rolling blackouts in some areas.  The ability to have electricity when others don't certainly seems desirable.

[Zlantann]

I was wondering if a generator might be a shrewd investment, given talks of potential rolling blackouts in some areas.  The ability to have electricity when others don't certainly seems desirable.

I live in a country where the generator industry is a very big and profitable one. Electricity is an essential need, hence people would always seek for alternative sources of power if the supply is epileptic. Investment in that sector might be very viable.

But generators also need fuel to function and the price of fuel is also high. And generators that can power appliance such as heaters should have high capacity which makes them very expensive. The smoke from generators are very dangerous that it can kill an entire household slowly. The noise from these generator sets are also very annoying.

Investment in this sector might be very profitable but generators are one of the major contributors of global environmental problems especially in developing nation's. It is a major environmental pollutant.

[Lucius]

It appears fire wood and wood burning stoves could be the next bitcoin. These trends emphasize high price volatility which can occur in response to market trends and shifting demand. If it were possible to purchase crypto tokens pegged to the value of firewood and wood stoves, it would be profitable. Although not the most ethical financial move given the profits would come at some expense of negative consumer sentiment.

Well, you must be kidding yourself or you've completely lost your mind when you compare Bitcoin with firewood and wood stoves - I have to admit that this is perhaps one of the biggest pieces of nonsense you've written, although you never cease to amaze...

We have already concluded a hundred times that you cannot solve every problem with the creation of a new token, which is an idea that you have been promoting for a long time and which does not lead to anything useful.

[Flexystar]

That’s too big statement regarding bitcoin to wood conversion and as like @Lucius I’m also disagreeing to the same.

Anyways, we always compare every news to the bitcoin world that is little unwelcoming. Imagine the world without bitcoin or crypto currency’s; you had no option but to live with the grim reality of inflation. We don’t have to burden bitcoin all the time if bomb explodes in the Ukraine somewhere.

Let us accept that we are into recession, we are having worst leaders around the globe who are not handling the situation correctly post covid and in-war situations. They have missed few bricks along the way while building a wall. It was supposed to collapse.

Just save up money, keep bitcoin in HODL position, Stock up supplies and wait for the recession to dilute. That’s what we can do.

[gantez]

I was wondering if a generator might be a shrewd investment, given talks of potential rolling blackouts in some areas.  The ability to have electricity when others don't certainly seems desirable.

If we are to do analysis of op post and generator investment I will say it is still not putting price down regarding to household expenses to generating energy, electricity and cooking cost. Yes it is going to be shrew for the buyer or user but profitable to manufacturer.

Reasons to be shrew for user is

1. If we are considering cost in the home, the generator use does not cost less. You have to fuel it almost on the daily basis. Money to buy the fuel goes out from the house and regarding as extra expenses.

2. There is time when use for long it started to generate fault and you need to go to generator technician or mechanic for repair, that cost extra fees for the charge for labour and change of faulty parts.

3. Generator is leading to high noise in the environment that disturb your ear and you hear noise everytime and no peace.

4 Risk of explosion caused by the using of generator. This is possible from different angles like filling the fuel to the generator careless way.

5. Smoke and heat in the environment The smoke that come from generator is dangerous , deadly and can cause death

Fumes from generators are deadly: The fumes from generators contain carbon monoxide, a poisonous, invisible and odourless gas. When inhaled, carbon monoxide replaces oxygen in the tissues and can easily lead to death.

The manufacturer is the one to benefit from selling the generator and selling of the parts.

Generator is not reducing cost but I think electricity is cheaper.

It appears fire wood and wood burning stoves could be the next bitcoin. These trends emphasize high price volatility which can occur in response to market trends and shifting demand.

Firewood is not same with bitcoin. The use of wood burning to generate fire may be getting attention and demand for it can be on the increase but not to compare with bitcoin need. Wood burning is already having a limitation because of the global warming and ozone layer that is affected because of the activities of cutting down trees and bush for firewood, building and others. There is a big disadvantage to go back to that time, I don't see the possiblity and there are regulation on that against cutting down trees and bush burning.

For woodburning, the world is changing and major reason is cutting down trees. This can cause natural disasters flooding that is happening in the world is part of it. The US is giving help to some countries on flooding disaster already.

To compare demand and supply, bitcoin is far more in demand and wood fetching is already in disadvantage for global warming, heat, ozone layer effect.

Using of stove to cook is still expensive. You have to use kerosene and that is not cheap. Bitcoin transfer is cheaper, less than $0.1  

[Findingnemo]

The consequences of Russia - Ukraine war is affecting the UK nations before with the gas prices now rise in demand for alternatives supplies because it is mandatory to survive the winter or else they would freeze. Recently I saw some article related to this which states UK and Ukraine is going to affect a lot when winter begins and this maybe just a trailer for all of the future consequences.

Or even it can be the beginning of new era in the political and other economical perspective or some conspiracy theory stated beginning of China to be the superpower.

[DooMAD]

I was wondering if a generator might be a shrewd investment, given talks of potential rolling blackouts in some areas.  The ability to have electricity when others don't certainly seems desirable.

If we are to do analysis of op post and generator investment I will say it is still not putting price down regarding to household expenses to generating energy, electricity and cooking cost. Yes it is going to be shrew for the buyer or user but profitable to manufacturer.

Reasons to be shrew for user is

1. If we are considering cost in the home, the generator use does not cost less. You have to fuel it almost on the daily basis. Money to buy the fuel goes out from the house and regarding as extra expenses.

2. There is time when use for long it started to generate fault and you need to go to generator technician or mechanic for repair, that cost extra fees for the charge for labour and change of faulty parts.

3. Generator is leading to high noise in the environment that disturb your ear and you hear noise everytime and no peace.

4 Risk of explosion caused by the using of generator. This is possible from different angles like filling the fuel to the generator careless way.

5. Smoke and heat in the environment The smoke that come from generator is dangerous , deadly and can cause death

Fumes from generators are deadly: The fumes from generators contain carbon monoxide, a poisonous, invisible and odourless gas. When inhaled, carbon monoxide replaces oxygen in the tissues and can easily lead to death.

Or alternatively, some of those issues can be mitigated with one of those newer "power stations" which are solar-powered and use batteries.  They'll still make a fair amount of noise, but better than burning fuel.

[el kaka22]

I am very much sure that fire wood is a temporary thing and not a long term solution. It means that even though right now there is a problem in the world with energy and heating, and even though people are finding firewood as a solution for the time being, there will be a period where it won't be as god as it is right now.

We do have electric heating products available, and they work very very well too, but they require a lot of electricity, which means we need to produce more energy. European nations who do not want to work with Russia anymore, went with firewood for now because it's a short term solution, but they will find a way to produce more energy, and when they do firewood will not be needed anymore.

[serjent05]

It appears fire wood and wood burning stoves could be the next bitcoin. These trends emphasize high price volatility which can occur in response to market trends and shifting demand. If it were possible to purchase crypto tokens pegged to the value of firewood and wood stoves, it would be profitable. Although not the most ethical financial move given the profits would come at some expense of negative consumer sentiment.

I do not think firewood and wood-burning stoves will be the next Bitcoin.  This problem can be easily fixed if someone or some country devotes themselves to planting the sources of these materials.  In just 5 to 10 years, the problem or the supply of firewood will go up in scale.  This commodity has a possible infinite supply, unlike Bitcoin which has a fixed supply.  So I don't think the current increase in firewood demand is comparable to Bitcoin.

With war in ukraine and other crisis on the horizon. It is possible markets will witness other such fluctuations in the future. While we cannot necessarily prevent these large scale crisis from occurring. We can prepare for the future by investing in things that will be future profitable to reduce negative fallout from inflation and other market losses of efficiency.

In the past I covered agriculture and food being one potential market to HODL if food shortages occur. Are there other examples of good HODL content for future market trends?

It is also good to invest in lumber and building materials, if nations involved in war increases, we can see lots of infrastructures getting destroyed, so the demand for these building materials will surge.

Long story short do we have good buy ins aside from firewood and wood stoves?

I agree that firewood and wood stoves is a good investment for short term until countries catch up to producing this kind of materials.

[Hydrogen]

Well, you must be kidding yourself or you've completely lost your mind when you compare Bitcoin with firewood and wood stoves  

That’s too big statement regarding bitcoin to wood conversion

Firewood is not same with bitcoin.

I do not think firewood and wood-burning stoves will be the next Bitcoin. 

I was joking about firewood being the next BTC.

But as so many want to take it seriously a case can be made for it.

Firewood is the next bitcoin

• Humans have chopped down more than 50% of natural forests in the world to make way for highways, cities, agricultural land, etc
• It takes years to grow a tree and only minutes to cut one down, this makes trees and firewood deflationary assets
• As human populations expand there is less space in the world for trees to occupy
• We may be at peak trees in 2022, the current number of trees may be the most the world will have in coming decades
• Fossil fuel restrictions and nordstream pipeline being blown up could make returns to natural gas for europeans unfeasible, firewood could be here to stay for the long term
• Efforts to replenish and regrow forests have met with mostly negative results

Coupled together these trends could converge to make firewood a deflationary asset.

Firewood may not be produced at a rate faster than it is consumed to suit market demand.

Scarcity could arise which could produce long term tangible gains for firewood markets.

[Lucius]

I was joking about firewood being the next BTC.

There is no sign that you wrote it as some kind of joke, especially for all those who know very well the way you think.

• Fossil fuel restrictions and nordstream pipeline being blown up could make returns to natural gas for europeans unfeasible, firewood could be here to stay for the long term

You are living in an illusion created by the Russian sphere of interest, but the situation with gas in the EU is such that there is currently much more than the real needs, and there is no winter at all, so many enjoy temperatures up to 25 degrees Celsius. Firewood is only a transient thing, which cannot be used by a very large percentage of people in the EU anyway, because they live in housing units that do not have chimneys.

Also, have you ever tried storing wood for a long period of time? Such wood is constantly destroyed by pests that live inside the tree itself, the wood dries out and loses its energy value, and in a few years you get wood that literally falls apart in your hands and burns like straw without generating a sufficient amount of heat.

[Hydrogen]

You are living in an illusion created by the Russian sphere of interest, but the situation with gas in the EU is such that there is currently much more than the real needs, and there is no winter at all, so many enjoy temperatures up to 25 degrees Celsius. Firewood is only a transient thing, which cannot be used by a very large percentage of people in the EU anyway, because they live in housing units that do not have chimneys.

Dwelling spaces which lack chimneys could simply install a window exhaust vent similar to a window based air conditioning.

Everyone in the EU will know whether gas supply exceeds demand when winter hits.

What's the point in discussing it, everyone will know what the facts are soon.

Also, have you ever tried storing wood for a long period of time? Such wood is constantly destroyed by pests that live inside the tree itself

It takes many years for wood in a natural environment to decompose.

I think most sources you could find would consensus a 5 year minimum.

the wood dries out and loses its energy value

Wood must be dried to be burned indoors.

Wood containing moisture produces large amounts of smoke.

All wood burned in wood stoves is dry.

[Bananington]

We do have electric heating products available, and they work very very well too, but they require a lot of electricity, which means we need to produce more energy. European nations who do not want to work with Russia anymore, went with firewood for now because it's a short term solution, but they will find a way to produce more energy, and when they do firewood will not be needed anymore.

Firewood alternative for heat is temporary and the people who are benefiting are those who never expected it to become an alternative so soon. It will not remain so and the only alternative for a long time as to it, there are alternatives too, just that some are energy dependent at the moment. One good and ecofriendly alternative to Firewood fireplace for keeping the home warm this period where electricity and gas prices are high and with the energy concerns is the alcoholic gels that do not give out smoke or fumes, and you can form a fireplace for heating your home with them. They can be easily gotten at shops around that sell items for home improvement and they are very affordable.

[Lucius]

Everyone in the EU will know whether gas supply exceeds demand when winter hits.
What's the point in discussing it, everyone will know what the facts are soon.

There is gas and it will be enough for the whole winter, and unfortunately you, like many others, are too deeply immersed in the daily propaganda about how Europe will freeze and collapse economically. For someone who is on the other side of the world and lives in tropical conditions, you are pretty sure you know something, but things on the ground are completely different from what you read.

Still don't believe it? Here, read what @stompix post -> Eu gas and electricity prices drop 80% to 2021 level, another apocalypse averted

It takes many years for wood in a natural environment to decompose.
I think most sources you could find would consensus a 5 year minimum.

I am not talking about complete decomposting, but about the fact that wood loses its quality over time - it is a natural material that is subject to various influences even when it is properly stored.

Wood must be dried to be burned indoors.
Wood containing moisture produces large amounts of smoke.
All wood burned in wood stoves is dry.

Of course it has to be dry, but you obviously don't know what I'm talking about if you've never made a fire with wood that's been sitting in the shed for a few years and wood that's been cut and dried for a few months and then used.

[stompix]

• We may be at peak trees in 2022, the current number of trees may be the most the world will have in coming decades
• Fossil fuel restrictions and nordstream pipeline being blown up could make returns to natural gas for europeans unfeasible, firewood could be here to stay for the long term
• Efforts to replenish and regrow forests have met with mostly negative results

Nope:
https://resoilfoundation.org/en/environment/eu-forests-growth/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/forest-europe-environment/

Around the world, forests are shrinking due to deforestation, urban development and climate change, but in Europe that trend has been reversed.
Large areas of the continent have seen a forest boom that means today more than two-fifths of Europe is tree-covered. Between 1990 and 2015, the area covered by forests and woodlands increased by 90,000 square kilometres - an area roughly the size of Portugal.

So, real efforts are not futile, forest in Europe is growing which means it can be done elsewhere too if there is the actual will to do so.

Everyone in the EU will know whether gas supply exceeds demand when winter hits.
What's the point in discussing it, everyone will know what the facts are soon.

There is gas and it will be enough for the whole winter, and unfortunately you, like many others, are too deeply immersed in the daily propaganda about how Europe will freeze and collapse economically. For someone who is on the other side of the world and lives in tropical conditions, you are pretty sure you know something, but things on the ground are completely different from what you read.

Still don't believe it? Here, read what @stompix post -> Eu gas and electricity prices drop 80% to 2021 level, another apocalypse averted

Let me add something to what Lucius said.
Europe is not the land of reindeer, no we don't have 10 meters of snowfalls, we don't have blizzards that freeze everything for months, and no, no artic nights in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, France > insert all the EU countries except for a bit of Norway or Finland.

Just to throw some numbers here:

The snowy period of the year lasts for 3.2 months, from December 6 to March 13, with a sliding 31-day snowfall of at least 1.0 inches. The month with the most snow in Copenhagen is February, with an average snowfall of 1.8 inches.
vs
The average winter snowfall in New York City is about 25 inches

Second, stop being so dramatic about everything.
We've been through covid where everyone was hoarding bullets and toilet paper, we've been to another grab-everything food rush and the stores are full, we're going to go through this so-called gas shortage and the ones investing in wood will see they've bought a ton of overpriced wood that they will either see decaying or sell for a fraction of the price.

Remember what happened to lumber prices in the US?
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

[Mauser]

Long story short do we have good buy ins aside from firewood and wood stoves?

Firewood is a good idea to store if you have the space did it. You need large amounts of wood if you want to use it as the main source of heating during winter. People who live in an apartment and not a house will probably have issues finding enough space. Storing value in gold and silver is probably the best idea, as long as its in small amounts that would make it easy to trade. One thing that I have started to store at home more is food. If things are going worse in the world and we are going to see more wars and crisis than food could become a commodity by itself that everybody will accept for trading. I am a huge fan of the climbing/military food that is packaged without any water. It has no real expiration date if stored correctly and it takes up no space and is light to carry. Together with a water purification system that you can always filter and get clean water, this is great to prepare for bad times. This would also help a lot if inflation keeps making food even more expensive next year.

[hugeblack]

Are all these fears for this winter, or are there expectations that prices will continue to rise for several years to come?
It makes no sense for me to modify my house and buy a wood heater for one winter, especially since it will not be used for the coming years.
Do not forget that environmental legislation will be strict in the following years.

[Hydrogen]

There is gas and it will be enough for the whole winter, and unfortunately you, like many others, are too deeply immersed in the daily propaganda about how Europe will freeze and collapse economically. For someone who is on the other side of the world and lives in tropical conditions, you are pretty sure you know something, but things on the ground are completely different from what you read.

Still don't believe it? Here, read what @stompix post -> Eu gas and electricity prices drop 80% to 2021 level, another apocalypse averted

Gasoline prices in the USA declined due to strategic petroleum reserves being tapped to -temporarily- boost supply.

Whatever fluctuations in natural gas, commodities and power occur. You have to consider microeconomic vs macroeconomic trends.

Prices can temporarily increase or decrease. There is no permanence or stability without long term sustainability. Supply versus demand is one of the main indicators used with destruction of gas pipelines being associated with diminished supply and higher demand.

NATO and russia are discussing dirty bombs & nuclear war and you're claiming the apocalypse has been averted?

I think you have not been paying attention.

Nope:
https://resoilfoundation.org/en/environment/eu-forests-growth/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/forest-europe-environment/


So, real efforts are not futile, forest in Europe is growing which means it can be done elsewhere too if there is the actual will to do so.

Take a good look at the following image.



Image link:  https://i.imgur.com/Ve9ta2S.jpg

Above image - 50,000 saplings planted as part of an afforestation project in india in 2010.

Less than 2% of trees planted in these massive state sponsored afforestation programs survive long enough to become actual trees.

Which leads to claims of forest regrowth being exaggerated.

Old growth rain forest in the amazon and around the world are being devastated quickly.

With efforts made to grow new trees being poorly structured and designed and generally doomed to failure.

Are all these fears for this winter, or are there expectations that prices will continue to rise for several years to come?

Trees are a deflationary asset, being that they're chopped down at a faster rate than they're being regrown.

But of course markets can be manipulated through supply in centralized industries. We've seen this in past years with aluminum prices being controlled through artificially created supply shortages and shipping delays. The high volatility price chart for aluminum over the past 2 years makes it appear as a scarce commodity at times, even though it is always in abundant supply.

Chart volatility for many commodities and assets has skyrocketed in the past 2 years. Price charts in commodities have shown more volatility than bitcoin and crypto in some instances. Which is extremely strange market behavior. This will stand out more to those who remember when bitcoin's volatility was criticized by banks and others who boasted about the lack of volatility in more traditional markets.

[FanEagle]

Firewood is a good idea to store if you have the space did it. You need large amounts of wood if you want to use it as the main source of heating during winter. People who live in an apartment and not a house will probably have issues finding enough space. Storing value in gold and silver is probably the best idea, as long as its in small amounts that would make it easy to trade. One thing that I have started to store at home more is food. If things are going worse in the world and we are going to see more wars and crisis than food could become a commodity by itself that everybody will accept for trading. I am a huge fan of the climbing/military food that is packaged without any water. It has no real expiration date if stored correctly and it takes up no space and is light to carry. Together with a water purification system that you can always filter and get clean water, this is great to prepare for bad times. This would also help a lot if inflation keeps making food even more expensive next year.

Reverse could be possible as well. You are assuming that people who live houses do have spaces but considering how much wood would be required to heat up a whole house, and do that during all of winter, I do not think that they would have enough space to do it, maybe if they close off their entire backyard (and if they have a backyard to begin with) at the top and put it there, then I do not think that it would be possible.

Apartments on the other hand could have good basement for all the people, and also a parking space, combine those two together and then heat the apartment as a whole from within, then you may have that space. We have similar thing, it's heated water running through all the apartments in our building, and water doesn't require space because you can flush it down and get new constantly, but we would have enough space for wood to do the same thing as well.

In both cases, a warehouse specialized in this product could definitely be preferred option for everyone. Still substandard method compared to just using electric heating machines.