Bear market likely over?

[JayJuanGee]

If you learn what is bitcoin, and then you learn how to use bitcoin in a sentence, then it may well help you to better learn what is going on and to be able to figure out some investing strategies in terms of what are you going to do in order to attempt to build the size of your bitcoin holdings, whether the BTC price is down or up, and then surely once you are spending time building your bitcoin holdings, then at some point you can attempt to figure out whether or if you might invest into some other products that might fall into the category of "crypto" or shitcoins or gambling with some of your value...

Tips that are quite simple that do not experience the slightest obstacle to implement.
Hard for those who don't want to apply it and easy for those who want to do it.

Questions often arise in my mind when I'm doing nothing in front of a computer screen, why do they delude themselves too often by presenting themselves as if they are strong in holding Bitcoin, even though they often discuss price figures in the market based on charts.

By the way, given the ever-increasing conditions of Bitcoin transaction fees, perhaps the resulting hectic activity could be a reason to build Bitcoin ownership without having to care about rising or falling prices.

Of course there are a variety of ways to think about bitcoin without ONLY thinking about its price, but the BTC price tends to be a pretty decent long term free market indicator that reflects upon other things that are going on in bitcoin, and surely there are going to be times in which price is not very well lined up with "what it should be", but as long as bitcoin remains alive and remains a somewhat free market, it is likely that the price is just going to continue to go up, even if there could well be decently long periods of price suppression along the way.

So yeah of course, related to recent transaction fees, we are seeing a lot of clogging of the network right now, and it remains interesting to see how mining might respond to such increases in fees (that involve both the reward and the fees)... and sure there are also likely a lot of relatively pisses off bitcoiners who have been used to transacting on bitcoin's base layer, and if they want to continue to attempt to use bitcoin for transactions, then they likely may well need to figure out some alternative ways to transact, including either delaying their transaction(s) or perhaps looking at some kind of a bitcoin second layer, such as looking at lightning network as a possible alternative way to continue to be able to transact.

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[Dimitri94]

So yeah of course, related to recent transaction fees, we are seeing a lot of clogging of the network right now, and it remains interesting to see how mining might respond to such increases in fees (that involve both the reward and the fees)... and sure there are also likely a lot of relatively pisses off bitcoiners who have been used to transacting on bitcoin's base layer, and if they want to continue to attempt to use bitcoin for transactions, then they likely may well need to figure out some alternative ways to transact, including either delaying their transaction(s) or perhaps looking at some kind of a bitcoin second layer, such as looking at lightning network as a possible alternative way to continue to be able to transact.

I  just recognized that mirners get more fees than a single block reward. I just want to say It's rain without clouds for miners. As a lerner I want to know from you, is bitcoin network congestion caused by BRC20 or is there some other problem?

If miners receive more transaction fees than single block rewards, will they try to create such a situation by creating an artificial crisis in the future? In such a situation, those who used small amounts of Bitcoin on chain will no longer have that opportunity.

Another question is that the use of on-chain is only for those who  want to transact with more fess will only have the opportunity to use it? Can we finally go back to the previous position? Or do you think we should evolve our own system along with Bitcoin evolution?

[BTCGalaxyA12]

Tips that are quite simple that do not experience the slightest obstacle to implement.
Hard for those who don't want to apply it and easy for those who want to do it.

Questions often arise in my mind when I'm doing nothing in front of a computer screen, why do they delude themselves too often by presenting themselves as if they are strong in holding Bitcoin, even though they often discuss price figures in the market based on charts.

By the way, given the ever-increasing conditions of Bitcoin transaction fees, perhaps the resulting hectic activity could be a reason to build Bitcoin ownership without having to care about rising or falling prices.

Of course there are a variety of ways to think about bitcoin without ONLY thinking about its price, but the BTC price tends to be a pretty decent long term free market indicator that reflects upon other things that are going on in bitcoin, and surely there are going to be times in which price is not very well lined up with "what it should be", but as long as bitcoin remains alive and remains a somewhat free market, it is likely that the price is just going to continue to go up, even if there could well be decently long periods of price suppression along the way.

<...>

Rising and falling prices are a normal routine that occurs in the market, where if there is a lot of demand, the price can go up and if there are lots of sellers, the price can go down.
Price can be one of the benchmarks that can reflect the positive side behind Bitcoin's journey from the past to the future.
Isn't that enough for comparison in setting up and building Bitcoin holdings?

There is no need to spend time looking at price charts all the time if they know Bitcoin is a good asset for the long term because it can drain the positive energy of those with weak hands.

[JayJuanGee]

So yeah of course, related to recent transaction fees, we are seeing a lot of clogging of the network right now, and it remains interesting to see how mining might respond to such increases in fees (that involve both the reward and the fees)... and sure there are also likely a lot of relatively pisses off bitcoiners who have been used to transacting on bitcoin's base layer, and if they want to continue to attempt to use bitcoin for transactions, then they likely may well need to figure out some alternative ways to transact, including either delaying their transaction(s) or perhaps looking at some kind of a bitcoin second layer, such as looking at lightning network as a possible alternative way to continue to be able to transact.

I  just recognized that mirners get more fees than a single block reward. I just want to say It's rain without clouds for miners. As a lerner I want to know from you, is bitcoin network congestion caused by BRC20 or is there some other problem?

I doubt that I am studying the issue (or that I am even technical enough) to really provide you with any kind of meaningful assessment regarding how the blockchain is being used and the various spikes in the meme pools which results in higher fees, and of course we have had a recent increase in the various inscriptions that are connected with the BRC20 standard that recently came out, so yeah the actual spike seems to be coming from a pretty BIG rush to get a bunch of the various NFTs, inscriptions or whatever they are called onto the bitcoin blockchain - and so the fact that the fees are going up and people are paying high ass fees in order to transact on the bitcoin blockchain is likely attributed to demand rather than being described as a spam attack..

My understanding is that the first waves of the BTC transaction fees going up in early February and during that stage, the purging of the lower fee transactions did not allow the lower fee transaction (attempts) to be placed, and so the purging was in the ballpark of less than 5 satoshis per vbyte - however, this time around the purging of new transactions is going up and up and I believe getting into the area of 50 satoshis per vbyte and even higher for the ones being purged.. which is a sign that people are paying the higher rates.. the transactions are going through and if you want to call the transactions (that are going through) as spam, then people are paying a whole fucking lot of money to be spamming, and it seems that it would be quite difficult to keep up that level of spam, because miners are actually making money on those high fees so for me, it is difficult to call those spam, and let's see how long such high fees are sustainable.. or if various other alternatives might be reached to be able to increase development (and channels) for second layer solutions, such as lightning network and perhaps some other solutions that could evolve (develop) from the concerns that many normies are going to have regarding how much they have to pay to transact on the bitcoin network.

Actually, Mikeywith made a pretty decent post to show how it appears that ordinals are become more than 50% of the onchain transactions, yet again, there still can be questions regarding sustainability of the trend and then possible solutions that might come about because of the congestion and the level of the BTC transaction fees.

Here's a snip of Mikeywith's post from another thread, and he largely answers the question regarding whether bitcoin is broken from BRC20 tokens, as "no"... and at this time, I tend to agree with that current assessment of the situation (which he describes further in that post, and there are other similar kinds of talking points in that thread.. with some members seeming to disagree with him:

.....>>>>>>>>Is this a bad thing for many people? it is, but that doesn't mean BTC has changed. no, we can blame Ordinals and BRC-20, but if we look at the numbers

May 08 > 41.4% of transactions were non-Ordinals
May 07 > 34.2% of transactions were non-Ordinals
May 06>  46%    of transactions were non-Ordinals
May 05>  64.9% of transactions were non-Ordinals 

There is no doubt that these Oridnals caused the initial spike, but the data shows that there are many people willing to pay high fees to move their BTC around, they are okay with paying 1 sat if they could get away with that, but when it's 500 sats/Vbyte that doesn't seem to stop them.
......<<<<<<<<

If miners receive more transaction fees than single block rewards, will they try to create such a situation by creating an artificial crisis in the future? In such a situation, those who used small amounts of Bitcoin on chain will no longer have that opportunity.

You can come up with all kinds of scenarios in which you believe that there could be some "evil miners" but I doubt that the game theory is really working out like that in bitcoin - especially since it seems to be quite likely that mining remains quite competitive and spread out, so it costs a whole fucking lot of value (including acquiring the mining equipment and turning it on or off and gaming the system and trying to control the hash power, so it becomes quite difficult for miners to spend so many resources against their own interests).

Personally, I believe that it is more healthy to consider the more-likely theories in regards to what is happening and what might happen, rather than coming up with elaborate scenarios that would really be way more difficult to carry out than you seem to be suggesting that it might not be difficult and as if it were to be in the interest of the miners to spend so many resources in fringe plots that are not very likely to work anyhow, even if they could either get resources together or to get other evil miners to collaborate with them in such a plot to kill the golden goose.

Yeah, there are government and financial institutions with seemingly unlimited resources in terms of money and even abilities to manipulate information.. but still you are likely giving them too much credit to be able to achieve such a plot, even if they are likely involved in a variety aspects of BTC mining and the market and they would love to kill bitcoin.. but their mere desire and the level of their power (and even evil) still does not mean that they have enough resources and power to achieve such killing bitcoin objectives.

I am not even suggesting that there might NOT be a variety of limited successes along the way, and sometimes undermining confidence could last for years, but still?  I doubt that longer term history or truth is on the side of the bitcoin FUDsters, naysayers and/or bitcoin haters.

Another question is that the use of on-chain is only for those who  want to transact with more fess will only have the opportunity to use it? Can we finally go back to the previous position? Or do you think we should evolve our own system along with Bitcoin evolution?

Each person has to figure out their own options in terms of how to acquire bitcoin and how much and what they are believing are going to be their future transaction abilities through bitcoin, through second layers or through various shitcoins, fiat or other ways that they store and/or transact their value.

There are not any guarantees regarding how these various matters are evolving or going to evolve, so it still likely remains a good idea to try to create many options for yourself whether good scenarios or bad scenarios end up playing out.  So the longer that any of us is in bitcoin, we likely need to figure out various ways that we might want to hold our bitcoin, including if we learn how to use various kinds of private wallets (and even lightning network wallets), and yeah, perhaps sometimes we might even have to wait before sending transactions or we might buy through exchanges until some of the congestion clears (hopefully).  Sure it is also possible that fees will come back down to 1 satoshi per vbyte, but maybe they won't and we have to figure out how to transact with higher fees, such as 50 per vbyte or some other amount that ends up playing out to be the "going rate."

We are likely in a different position if we already hold plenty of BTC in a variety of places, as compared if we are still in the earlier BTC accumulating stages or if we had been engaging in a business that had relied upon the sustainability of low "on-chain" transaction fees, and so ideally the market is going to work out these kinds of matters, and it seems to me that it tends to not be making any kinds of rash  determinations regarding what to do based on circumstances and/or trends that might not last, even though of course, each of us should be attempting to account for information that we know about and what we can reasonably infer from it... including filtering through information sources (and descriptions of what is going on or what might go on) in terms of some being more/less credible than others.

[Mahanton]

Tips that are quite simple that do not experience the slightest obstacle to implement.
Hard for those who don't want to apply it and easy for those who want to do it.

Questions often arise in my mind when I'm doing nothing in front of a computer screen, why do they delude themselves too often by presenting themselves as if they are strong in holding Bitcoin, even though they often discuss price figures in the market based on charts.

By the way, given the ever-increasing conditions of Bitcoin transaction fees, perhaps the resulting hectic activity could be a reason to build Bitcoin ownership without having to care about rising or falling prices.

Of course there are a variety of ways to think about bitcoin without ONLY thinking about its price, but the BTC price tends to be a pretty decent long term free market indicator that reflects upon other things that are going on in bitcoin, and surely there are going to be times in which price is not very well lined up with "what it should be", but as long as bitcoin remains alive and remains a somewhat free market, it is likely that the price is just going to continue to go up, even if there could well be decently long periods of price suppression along the way.

<...>

Rising and falling prices are a normal routine that occurs in the market, where if there is a lot of demand, the price can go up and if there are lots of sellers, the price can go down.
Price can be one of the benchmarks that can reflect the positive side behind Bitcoin's journey from the past to the future.
Isn't that enough for comparison in setting up and building Bitcoin holdings?

There is no need to spend time looking at price charts all the time if they know Bitcoin is a good asset for the long term because it can drain the positive energy of those with weak hands.

If you are that someone who do love on checking or looking at charts and you do have that kind of doubt when it comes to your Bitcoin holdings then you would really be having that kind of impulsive emotions or
approach on things specially if there's a sudden decline on which you would really be that trying to look for some possible reasons on whats behind with those drops and this would really be a never ending kind of
emotional swings everytime the market do make out its move.
The time we could say that bear market is over is on the time that we do see that bull run effect or event which it is most likely be pertaining into that halving event which it would be neither months after
before it would kick in.
For now we could really just simply go with the flow or waves about these volatility and its not really that something new. You would be needing to be wise in regarding whether you would be securing yourself
on the bottom and would make out some profits later on when the market starts to kick in and going upwards. It is really just like that, better not to make yourself
that too emotional when it comes to price movement approach.

[mikeywith]

If miners receive more transaction fees than single block rewards, will they try to create such a situation by creating an artificial crisis in the future? In such a situation, those who used small amounts of Bitcoin on chain will no longer have that opportunity.

JayJuanGee quoted my post so I checked his post and found him answer your questions, not that his answer wasn't correct, but I thought I need to add an important fact that many people seem to be unaware of is that not all miners are friends, they don't know each other, they share one interest and one interest only (making the most profit).

If there was a universally agreed upon way to increase their profit, they won't even have to discuss it on forums or send emails, everyone would be doing it and it would just happen, and given that miners have been mining for over a decade, regardless of how miners as people change, the mindset is the same.

Many people like to come up with all kinds of different theories on how miners could do x to achieve z, you got a theory that suggests miners can intentionally shut down some of their gears to achieve.

1- Lower difficulty for the next epoch.
2- Fewer blocks found > larger amount of stuck transactions > more fees.

You got another theory that suggests, miners can shut down 90% of their miner gears, save 90% on operational and power costs, and still make the same money since the rewards are the same.

You got many more weird theories that all look great on paper, but can't be done simply because the nature of Bitcoin mining is decentralized, if 10,000 miners agree to exploit something based on one of the theories, I myself as a miner will make more money by exploiting their exploit, i.e if they shut down 90% of their gears, I will power 100% of my gears, a dozen thousand miners will do the same, so that 10,000 miners will actually lose money simply because they can't tell me or anyone else how to operate.

in fact, even if 90% of miners agreed to apply one of the theories, the remaining 10% can rekt the whole plan and eat the profit that 90% left on the table before any of their goals are achieved.

As long as you don't need a license from a single entity like the U.S., British or Russian government to mine BTC, there is exactly NOTHING miners can do to hurt BTC or its users without hurting themselves even more.

I rather worry about being hit by a lightning strike in the middle of the summer than worry about any of those theories surrounding miners becoming true in real life.


In the recent high fee waves, some serious hashrate was lost, it was as large as 10% and then quickly settled at 6% (could be lower or higher depending on the luck status which we can't tell), someone might assume that some miners intentionally did that to clog the network even more and cause fees to rise so the remaining hashrate they had left online would make more money, but that is just theory, if we run the math (we did so many times in the Mining section) you will see that that 6% would have made more money by just mining rather than playing any kind of games and taking a huge risk.


 

[BTCGalaxyA12]

If you are that someone who do love on checking or looking at charts and you do have that kind of doubt when it comes to your Bitcoin holdings then you would really be having that kind of impulsive emotions or
approach on things specially if there's a sudden decline on which you would really be that trying to look for some possible reasons on whats behind with those drops and this would really be a never ending kind of
emotional swings everytime the market do make out its move.
<...>

Price can be a benchmark for people to see what direction Bitcoin has taken or be a reflection of a long-term trading journey.
I tend to rarely look at price charts. Only once a week I see it to compare and analyze the suitability of the purchase price even in small quantities.

I agree with JayJuanGee that trying to build Bitcoin ownership without being too concerned with rising and falling prices is what I'm doing right now so I wonder why do people talk about prices so much when they know that Bitcoin can go up and down because most market participants already understand about crypto market volatility.

[rhodelmabanal]

Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

What do you all think about the sudden bounce back and price increase on Bitcoin of lately?

Well the price is better now than 15k$ and i believe that not too far from today we will see another all time high on bitcoin price together with the popular altcoins in crypto. It is now the best time to buy for good if we dont buy today we maybe need a big capital when bull market officially begin so lets prepare now.

[yohananaomi]

Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

What do you all think about the sudden bounce back and price increase on Bitcoin of lately?

Well the price is better now than 15k$ and i believe that not too far from today we will see another all time high on bitcoin price together with the popular altcoins in crypto. It is now the best time to buy for good if we dont buy today we maybe need a big capital when bull market officially begin so lets prepare now.

it's better to think about continuing to buy and keep it straight away, when the market situation is indeed unpredictable, of course the best thing to do is that. we already know that a halving era situation will occur, where the hope for a speedy recovery will also be realized. so that by buying, we will get the opportunity to be able to make a profit in time. don't be tempted to keep waiting for the market to go down and just buy because once again the market is difficult to predict.

[AnonBitCoiner]

it's better to think about continuing to buy and keep it straight away, when the market situation is indeed unpredictable, of course the best thing to do is that. we already know that a halving era situation will occur, where the hope for a speedy recovery will also be realized. so that by buying, we will get the opportunity to be able to make a profit in time. don't be tempted to keep waiting for the market to go down and just buy because once again the market is difficult to predict.

Yes exactly buying now will be full of fruitful results because this time the market price is not such high and everyone should buy bitcoin as the coming year will be beneficial for selling of bitcoin and reap the maximum cost from your investment.

The current situations are not so bad and not so good and everyone is in wait for enhancement of their cash by holding their bitcoin. Those who have taken sudden decision during these circumstances are not wise because under such circumstances waiting will be better as we all know about the Bull run is coming soon.

So those who don't have yet make investment should surely buy bitcoin and just wait for the appropriate price so coming year will be full of good return for you.

[Moshi Moshi]

Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

What do you all think about the sudden bounce back and price increase on Bitcoin of lately?

Well the price is better now than 15k$ and i believe that not too far from today we will see another all time high on bitcoin price together with the popular altcoins in crypto. It is now the best time to buy for good if we dont buy today we maybe need a big capital when bull market officially begin so lets prepare now.

Right now the market is still bearish and we still have a very big chance to buy at a cheap price,
if we miss this opportunity it is clear that in the bullish season everything will be very expensive,
even altcoins can increase up to x100 in the bullish season.

[monineklutak]

Technically, we can see that the price of Bitcoin is still very strong to stay bearish, because the price of the strongest Bitcoin resistance is at $ 30k,
some time ago Bitcoin had penetrated $ 30k but unfortunately $ 30k was still too strong and was corrected to $ 26 k, but indeed, if you look at history,
there is a possibility that we are at the end of the bearish market, so just prepare your best strategy to maximize profits during the bullish season.

[bestcoins1]

Well the price is better now than 15k$ and i believe that not too far from today we will see another all time high on bitcoin price together with the popular altcoins in crypto. It is now the best time to buy for good if we dont buy today we maybe need a big capital when bull market officially begin so lets prepare now.

If you are waiting and thinking about a price increase for Bitcoin. It would be better if you can focus on buying more Bitcoin than having to watch altcoins which may also increase simultaneously in the market, because you can buy altcoins with the remaining money you have after you buy a certain amount of Bitcoin at the time This. After all, it's much better than you looking at altcoins at the same time to expect simultaneous profits.

Right now the market is still bearish and we still have a very big chance to buy at a cheap price,
if we miss this opportunity it is clear that in the bullish season everything will be very expensive,
even altcoins can increase up to x100 in the bullish season.

Just use capital to buy Bitcoin even though you have to apply it gradually, because altcoins can still be obtained when someone has collected more Bitcoins. So the main focus for buying right now is for Bitcoin before any bullishness really comes in the market and it is also worth noting that altcoins still have to be chosen carefully and wisely as not all of them are good enough to buy in large quantities at the same time.

[Dollar_Hunter]

I am optimistic that the bear market will end soon because the bear market is part of a cycle,
so I think there will be time for us to be bullish again, I'm still calm because the Bitcoin price is very strong now,
different to the bear market in 2018 where the Bitcoin price was really very volatile, especially when there was calm news about the Corona virus.

[Kadal Ijo]

The bear market is not over, today might be the worst day on record since this year, the price dropped more than 6 percent and the chance to fall according to many predictions is still possible, but let's not panic and wait a while, investors who have a view of big profits then take this as an opportunity to continue buying.

[Maslate]

The bear market is not over, today might be the worst day on record since this year, the price dropped more than 6 percent and the chance to fall according to many predictions is still possible, but let's not panic and wait a while, investors who have a view of big profits then take this as an opportunity to continue buying.

It doesn't look good; Bitcoin is now down to the $25k level after reaching $30k earlier this year. We were hopeful that it was a positive sign for the market to shift back into bullish mode. However, if this downtrend continues, it may cause panic again, and it's possible that we may not see a bull run this year. It's still too early to tell, though. I hope people won't overreact and panic in the current situation. We already know how volatile the market can be, with sudden pumps and dumps. It has become quite normal for those who fully understand how the market works.

[Semar Mesem]

I think the bear market is not over yet, there is still a lot of pressure and it seems that the price is difficult to go up, last March I was sure that the bear market was over and the bull run was coming soon, unfortunately the market has continued to be corrected until now and looks difficult to rise again.

[yohananaomi]

I think the bear market is not over yet, there is still a lot of pressure and it seems that the price is difficult to go up, last March I was sure that the bear market was over and the bull run was coming soon, unfortunately the market has continued to be corrected until now and looks difficult to rise again.

I think it's possible that there will indeed be a sustainable bear market. If you look at this week, there has been a -4.7% decline for bitcoin, even for some of the leading altcoins, some up to -17%.
hoping for a bull run soon it is clear that it is very difficult to expect in a situation like this where indeed the world economic crisis has not yet improved. again, this is an excellent opportunity to continue buying and holding on to what you already have.

[fuguebtc]

I think the bear market is not over yet, there is still a lot of pressure and it seems that the price is difficult to go up, last March I was sure that the bear market was over and the bull run was coming soon, unfortunately the market has continued to be corrected until now and looks difficult to rise again.

I think it's possible that there will indeed be a sustainable bear market. If you look at this week, there has been a -4.7% decline for bitcoin, even for some of the leading altcoins, some up to -17%.
hoping for a bull run soon it is clear that it is very difficult to expect in a situation like this where indeed the world economic crisis has not yet improved. again, this is an excellent opportunity to continue buying and holding on to what you already have.

Many altcoins were dumped today after it was reported that the Robinhood exchange delisted several top altcoins.

I always say that the bear market is not over, even if we see bitcoin surge in the first 3 months of the year. But many people rely on that signal and subjectively believe that the bear market is over. Why do we always believe that history will repeat itself but are too hasty to conclude that bear season is over? Because if calculated according to a 4-year cycle, we are only halfway through the bear season, which means that the bear season will be very long, and there is no guarantee it will end this year.
Not only because Fuds is besieging the SEC case with exchanges, but I believe there will be many difficulties waiting for us this year. I won't think about a bull market until the halving happens.

[Dollar_Hunter]

The sign that the bear market is ending is a pump from Doge, and until now Doge has not experienced a pump,
so we could say Bitcoin is still bearish. It can also be seen that the Bitcoin price failed to break $30k, so strong resistance is still there,
it's better if you want to invest, it's better to wait until there is a confirmation bounce.