What do you think of gold price in long term?

[pooya87]

As fiat currencies dump, some countries are moving towards increasing the amount of gold they have in their reserves. More specifically some of them are dumping US dollar to replace it with gold. For example India recently bought 200 tonne of gold and there is rumors of more conversions happening. China has been doing something similar under the radar. So are others.

However, we haven't seen any significant changes in gold price yet to approve the above news.

I'm wondering what does everyone think about gold price in the long term, specially in coming year or two as the conflicts get worse and more economies crash which would push regular people to invest in gold and more governments to start increasing their gold reserves on larger scale.

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[odolvlobo]

Gold has not lived up to its role as an inflation hedge. Prices have risen about 25% over the last 10 years, but the price of gold is the same as it was 10 years ago despite that inflation.

I believe it is due to the falling demand for gold.

Only tradition has supported demand after the gold standard was finally abandoned in 1971. As time goes by, that tradition will continue to fade and people will have less desire to hold gold as an asset. Its falling value will also cause a reduction in demand by central banks, and that will eventually result in the abandonment of gold as a purely financial asset.

I decided all of this recently, and I plan to sell my gold as I don't see prices ever going up from here.

[NeuroticFish]

It depends what "long" term means 
For the next years, and not few, gold will remain the main "thing" used a reserve / wealth deposit, especially by (central) banks.
So unless something big happens in science (eg proving that earth contains much more gold than expected, or much cheaper means of extracting it), gold has it's place well defined.
We, bitcoiners, may expect a mentality change and adopting bitcoin as an alternative to gold. That will happen gradually, over long period of time.

So I'd assume that for the next 10 years at least, gold price is pretty much safe (i.e. no sudden moves, overall better chance to go up than down).
Still, as bitcoiner, I see no reason to care about gold now. Maybe some day as diversification...

[Rruchi man]

As fiat currencies dump, some countries are moving towards increasing the amount of gold they have in their reserves. More specifically some of them are dumping US dollar to replace it with gold. For example India recently bought 200 tonne of gold and there is rumors of more conversions happening. China has been doing something similar under the radar. So are others.

Many of them have still not accepted bitcoins, so it can be expected that in seeking an alternative to fiat, they choose gold.

I'm wondering what does everyone think about gold price in the long term, specially in coming year or two as the conflicts get worse and more economies crash which would push regular people to invest in gold and more governments to start increasing their gold reserves on larger scale.

Bitcoins are a better option to invest in if you are expecting the crisis to worsen and more will realize this. People will invest more in bitcoins but it will not make gold loose its value so soon in that two years window. Although bitcoins will become the generally preferred choice, gold still has the potential of becoming more valuable if it gets scarcer.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Why you need a safe haven (gold) when dollar is strong? That's why we don't see a gold rush right now. DXY is hitting new high day after day.

DXY vs gold:


And why dollar is strong now? I do believe its because of dolar milkshake theory - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa6UXR4hvgE&ab_channel=RealVisionFinance

I also believe that sooner or later we will see a "Plaza Accord 2.0" or "world de-dolarizing" playing a bigger role and DXY dump combined with GOLD pump. And the fact that average person is dumping because "gold is not going up in last years" while China and India are buying tons of gold makes me even more certain about my gold investment.

Gold is with us, as money, for more than 2500 years. Debt base monetary system is with us for last 50 years and everything points at its collapse as a "failed experiment". Average hause in US in 1920 was worth 6000$ !
"So starting with a nice good-size home the cost was about $6,300. If you got an apartment in NYC the rent was $60 a month."https://www.familytree.com/blog/prices-in-the-1920s/
 Dollar lost 95% of purchasing power in last 90 years.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-CUUR0000SA0R/

Don't dump gold to hold $ - "experimental currency" only because of short term price performance.

Dollar purchasing power vs gold price in last 50 years

Hell yea its inflation headge. Inflation is with us not only when it spike to 10% and the market (and asset evaluation) is dominated by panic and unrest creating "misevaluation" that we, smart investors, can take advantage of. Inflation was with us for last 90 years and gold worked well in long term.

[hugeblack]

200 tonne of gold will not change the price of gold, but from my point of view, the confiscation / freezing of money deposited in central banks, which happened recently from some countries, is the main reason that will push countries such as India, China and others to buy more gold and keep it instead of the dollar, and this is the reason I have more than inflation.

Another problem will appear, which is that these countries will want to receive gold in their CBs, which makes the process complicated.
 
In short, the more confidence in the current financial system weakens, the greater the value of gold, something that may happen in the future (if we ignore inflation)

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I decided all of this recently, and I plan to sell my gold as I don't see prices ever going up from here.

I've got no golden dog in this fight, so for your sake I hope you're right--and you probably are; I've been watching the precious metals market since the 2000s, and all of those claims (by people who want to sell you metals) that gold/silver are great inflation hedges are just blatantly false as a general rule. 

Sure, depending on when you bought in you might get lucky and gold could be acting as a hedge, but that same statement could be true of bitcoin, stocks, or anything else.  The key of course is what price you bought the asset at.  That's always the key point.

But who knows?  If people expect gold to hedge inflation, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if they start buying it.  Me?  I'm not touching it--not that I could afford it anyway.

[naira]

Bitcoins are a better option to invest in if you are expecting the crisis to worsen and more will realize this. People will invest more in bitcoins but it will not make gold loose its value so soon in that two years window. Although bitcoins will become the generally preferred choice, gold still has the potential of becoming more valuable if it gets scarcer.

When the crisis worsens, cash is needed to survive even if its value is exposed to inflation. Investing is also necessary but may not exceed the larger portion of the cash that needs to be saved during a crisis. Due to deteriorating economic conditions, you are forced to survive and have food supplies for at least the next 6 months. The economic crisis will not only have an impact on investment assets, but the price will increase and you need to be alert to bad conditions. Apart from setting aside a few percent in Bitcoins, reducing the lifestyle portion and keeping the base stock in mind is much more important. Decide in gold is also necessary as a value resistance in a certain period of time but in retail gold not in heavy form. In anticipation of a prolonged crisis. I think countries that are aware of closing their gold stocks have predicted that the value embodied in gold will still exist in the midst of a crisis that could allow banks to freeze withdrawals.

[Hydrogen]

Gold and precious metals have lost their luster and shine.

Gold was once considered a badge of authenticity, robustness and reliability. Today it is an archaic and potentially obsolete unit of exchange. People no longer trust or respect gold the way they did in previous eras.

There is no gold for the people. As an asset it is mainly accessible to central banks and the super wealthy. Banks like JP morgan are even going so far as to reduce accessbility to gold by closing safe deposit box services.

Gold lacks infrastructure and support for exchange in markets. It can't be used to buy a cup of coffee. There is no support for it in eras of natural disaster, war or emergency. The overwhelming majority would not know what to do with a bar of gold or silver if one somehow fell out of the sky and landed in front of them.

I think central banks amassing gold is a futile exercise. The public is too disconnected from gold for it to carry much trust or sway the way it did in previous eras.

Gold's day has passed and it is now other assets which will gain prominence.

[Wind_FURY]

Gold has not lived up to its role as an inflation hedge. Prices have risen about 25% over the last 10 years, but the price of gold is the same as it was 10 years ago despite that inflation.

I believe it is due to the falling demand for gold.

Only tradition has supported demand after the gold standard was finally abandoned in 1971. As time goes by, that tradition will continue to fade and people will have less desire to hold gold as an asset. Its falling value will also cause a reduction in demand by central banks, and that will eventually result in the abandonment of gold as a purely financial asset.

I decided all of this recently, and I plan to sell my gold as I don't see prices ever going up from here.

Plus the opportunity cost of HODLing Gold if you can HODL Bitcoin is very high. Think about HODLing Gold vs. HODLing Bitcoin from 2015 to 2022. I'm very sure you would have lost relative to Bitcoin.

Although, continuing to observe the Gold market could remain useful, because it's one of the leading indicators to know of the Dollar is going stronger or weaker. Gold Up = Dollar Weak, Gold Down = Dollar Strong.

[eightdots]

Gold and precious metals have lost their luster and shine.

Gold was once considered a badge of authenticity, robustness and reliability. Today it is an archaic and potentially obsolete unit of exchange. People no longer trust or respect gold the way they did in previous eras.

There is no gold for the people. As an asset it is mainly accessible to central banks and the super wealthy. Banks like JP morgan are even going so far as to reduce accessbility to gold by closing safe deposit box services.

Gold lacks infrastructure and support for exchange in markets. It can't be used to buy a cup of coffee. There is no support for it in eras of natural disaster, war or emergency. The overwhelming majority would not know what to do with a bar of gold or silver if one somehow fell out of the sky and landed in front of them.

I think central banks amassing gold is a futile exercise. The public is too disconnected from gold for it to carry much trust or sway the way it did in previous eras.

Gold's day has passed and it is now other assets which will gain prominence.

I think that the time of gold has passed long ago and it is no longer necessary to use it as an investment tool. As in the example I quoted, I do not find it right for central banks to invest in gold anymore. They must keep up with innovations. Even when we look at it as a boiler, gold could not exceed a certain rate. I don't see people around me investing in gold. Everyone is looking for innovation and more profit now. You can say that gold is a guaranteed investment, but at what rate will it be able to withstand inflation?

[pooya87]

200 tonne of gold will not change the price of gold,

I didn't claim this alone would change price of gold even though we are talking about $6.7 billion conversion which is a significant amount. My point is that I see a trend of more countries doing this.

Keep in mind that during WWII gold was in a way the currency of the world. United States kept building weapons and sold it to Europeans for gold not dollar or Pound, etc.
We are moving towards more global conflicts these days...

[zasad@]

As fiat currencies dump, some countries are moving towards increasing the amount of gold they have in their reserves. More specifically some of them are dumping US dollar to replace it with gold. For example India recently bought 200 tonne of gold and there is rumors of more conversions happening. China has been doing something similar under the radar. So are others.

However, we haven't seen any significant changes in gold price yet to approve the above news.

I'm wondering what does everyone think about gold price in the long term, specially in coming year or two as the conflicts get worse and more economies crash which would push regular people to invest in gold and more governments to start increasing their gold reserves on larger scale.

I heard an interesting idea that China's CBDC has 2 levels, by analogy with Ethereum. One level is an internal coin for all citizens and companies, and the other level is a world currency, the stability of which is provided by Chinese gold. And China buys a lot of gold. Welcome to the new gold standard
Buying gold in banks will be much more expensive.
Another point that the gold needs to be picked up. My friend told me his story about how he was running away from Ukraine. He was in another place and he did not succeed in picking up gold and other savings. Cryptocurrency helped him. Therefore, ask yourself an important question, but will you have time to collect your gold if you have to run away?

[ginsan]

The large-scale purchases of gold carried out by several countries were due to several factors of chaos triggered by the war that took place. well if there is no war and the economy is relatively stable and there are no indicators that show the impossibility of big inflation. so this step is certainly good for some countries in maintaining the economic cycle in their country by backing up gold in the preparation period if big inflation occurs but that's a convincing turnaround for us to follow. I think gold has quite good characteristics in investing and the price is relatively stable without any increase that has peaked over the last 20 years. If you see this as a pretty good step for an investment tool then you shouldn't hesitate to buy and keep it.

[Anonylz]

Speaking from a layman's perspective and seeing the utility of Gold, I think it will always be a valuable asset in all human existence (i would say). I mean there are several things that Gold is used for that will make it to be always valuable. Definitely not as valuable as btc in terms of price but no doubt it is worth holding long term.

[Vinaa77]

As fiat currencies dump, some countries are moving towards increasing the amount of gold they have in their reserves. More specifically some of them are dumping US dollar to replace it with gold. For example India recently bought 200 tonne of gold and there is rumors of more conversions happening. China has been doing something similar under the radar. So are others.

However, we haven't seen any significant changes in gold price yet to approve the above news.

I'm wondering what does everyone think about gold price in the long term, specially in coming year or two as the conflicts get worse and more economies crash which would push regular people to invest in gold and more governments to start increasing their gold reserves on larger scale.

If we look from several sources about gold reserves in several countries, of course 200 tons is not a high number. Because Australia has gold reserves of 10,000 tons last year. So that 200 tons will not affect the market price. While India is also not included in the list of countries that have high gold reserves. In this case, gold prices tend to be more stable than others.

In other terms, gold has no limited stock, or maximum stock. So that price conditions also tend to be more stable, or the price pump tends to be slow. We can also compare this with today's crypto. Why Bitcoin price is higher compared to Ethereum. Due to limited supply.

[el kaka22]

Gold has always been very valuable in history and will keep valuable in the future as well. I never agreed that it should be this valuable, sure there are things that gold is used for, but the idea of gold being a valuable thing became a bit more known after it was used as gold coins, since it was limited and not everyone could get their hands on it.

These days, there is really nothing backing it up as a valuable thing aside from people’s perception of it, if you are a company that buys iron, copper, or any other material and also gold to build something then it's valuable to you, but as an investment? I never believed it was valuable but the world still does, so it should be going up probably.

[glendall]

gold is an investment for people who don't believe in bitcoin, and I think gold can still be used as a long-term investment, even though the price of gold is not as high as bitcoin but the level of security value is safer than bitcoin
here I conclude bitcoin will be the best investment for the real version (object) even though the price rises not significantly and sometimes there is no increase,

[romero121]

These days there is regular fluctuation with the gold price. The same makes people have a small part invested on gold. As the risk is minimal, it is considered among the middle class people in large numbers compared to the rich and the elite class people.

Gold price in the long term won't move much big, because it have got certain limitations. Right now different things valueated against gold is the prime reason for the growth. The price of gold in 50 years have grown 15x which is good, but not that high when compared against different stocks in the same time period.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Central banks do not agree with the bearish views that most of you have expressed.

Central banks added 463 tons of gold to global reserves in 2021. That was 82% higher than in 2020.

A WGC survey found that “gold’s performance during a time of crisis and its role as a long-term store of value/inflation hedge are key determinants in the decisions of central banks to hold it.”

Last year was the 12th consecutive year of net purchases. Over that time, central banks have bought a net total of 5,692 tons of gold.

Central Banks Add Gold for Fifth Straight Month

What you are ignoring is that the price of gold is manipulated:

"The manipulation of gold prices began on 5 August 1993," the German analyst points out, and the reason was none other than an agreement between different central banks and the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve-FED, Alan Greenspan, "who did not want the price of an ounce of gold to exceed 400 dollars" because an uncontrolled increase in the price of gold could affect the "inflation thermometer". So this agreement was in place for several years, and materialised by acting on the markets with orders to sell and lend gold with the blessing and participation of other central banks, which, he recalls, "work closely with private banks and financial institutions".

The way of operating and manipulating prices was "very simple", because these entities possessed significant amounts of gold that they used to control, if not lower, the price of gold, "expelling potential buyers" of the metal from the market who did not see the expected return on their investments. For Speck, states are the first to benefit from these practices, especially the US because its currency, the dollar, "is the world's reference currency" and gold is the main rival to loan-based currencies. "A rising gold price accentuates the debt and deficits of states", especially in the US.

¿Quién manipula los precios del oro y por qué? (I have translated the quote from Spanish into English.)

Having a little gold is not a bad thing. You can't pay for your groceries with it but you can convert it to cash instantly in any medium-sized city in the world. And even in small towns, if there is a jewellery shop or similar, even if it does not advertise itself as a gold dealer, it is quite likely that they will accept it.