[Ended] 0.003 BTC for the best analysis of this NLHE 6-max poker hand.

[Poker Player]

BTN: 101 BB
Hero (SB): 111 BB
BB: 100.5 BB
UTG: 102.5 BB
MP: 106 BB
CO: 83.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 9h 3d 6h

Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn : (14 BB, 2 players) Ts
Hero bets 9 BB, BTN calls 9 BB

River : (32 BB, 2 players) Kc
Hero checks, BTN bets 46 BB, Hero ?




I have exactly 0.003355 Bitcoin at the address I receive my signature campaign payments. I will give what I have there minus fees to the best hand analysis.

I have not put either the room or the level for privacy and because I think it can be analyzed regardless. I will only say that it is a room and a level where regulars abound, and that, from the few data we have, the opponent is a regular (he has a full stack and raises the hand instead of limping). No stats.

As it is money that I am going to give because I feel like it, my decision will be final and unappealable, although I have put three criteria in a signed message, which will be obvious to anyone with a certain poker level.

I will reveal the full message starting next Sunday.

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bc1q2z248q6kaasd549pjunjd6740hlf50wkvcu9s0
H+PIN/bvA5T1ENyG5k6PW2KcKTHNuILETGx0WMzNDilRPUUw/QTQ9g46K7H7oCF7o3DdgY26Ryyqk9efJBkoPAk=

-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

Address staked here.

I am not sure that I have not made a mistake with the message, because I did some tests and I screwed up, so I say that my decision will be final even if the message is not verified, but as I said, the criteria are obvious to anyone who knows poker and hand analysis with a certain level.

I will accept hand analyses until next Tuesday, November 8 Sunday, November 6, Saturday, November 5, at 23:59:59 forum time at the latest. If I see a very good or perfect analysis, I may end the game and give the prize to the person who does it, because once someone gets an analysis right, there is nothing to add.

If, when I look at the thread, I see several correct analyses, the prize will go to the one who posted the analysis first.

Good luck!

 

Edited to say that there are two requirements to participate: to be a Jr. member at least and to have at least neutral net trust (you can have 1 positive 1 negative feedback from DT).

[1714958567]

1714958567

[1714958567]

1714958567

[1714958567]

1714958567

[PawGo]

I am not really sure what you want to read, I did not do it for a very long time and I do not have the proper soft, so I will write how I feel it 

Statistically Hero has +-36% chances, button has 63%.
You have a pair, he plays 46BB which could be a little insane (is he kind of person who just wants you to fold, having nothing or almost nothing), or he rally has something. And it could be a lot, apart of high pair in hand or a pair which gave him 3, if he has QJ he has sure win (and it would make his previous calls reasonable, he was waiting for a higher pair and he assumed other players had weak cards, so he gave what you wanted him to give). Or maybe he has a pair higher than yours.
Or maybe he is just frustrated because he did not wanted to see K on river and he is afraid of something? Maybe he is disappointed because he was hoping for a color?

Anyway, there are 78blinds waiting, but should you call? I do not think so, you must spend 46 blinds (58%) while chances for win are much much lower. You invested a lot, it is not worth to continue. That's what numbers says, what is your feeling about that player could be something different.

[tokeweed]

Preflop:  Call is good as you have a decent hand and it's suited.  A 3bet could also be good in this spot as being a BU raiser he could have a lot of junk in his range.

Flop:  I would check/fold this spot vs that sizing or any sizing unless really small.  Sure you have A high so it's prolly worth a peel for the next card and you do have a T blocker for the straight and backdoor diamonds, but there's a heart draw on the board.  It could put you in a dicey spot if you turn top pair but it completes the flush or the straight.

Turn:  You call flop, hit T for top pair, top kicker on the turn and he bets around 3/4 pot.  It's getting dicey.  Lol.  He has less chances of having a T since you have it and he's representing strength here.  So he prolly has a value range of over pairs, sets, straights and if he does have the T, it's prolly with a weaker kicker.  Bluffs he has would mostly be heart draws.

River:  You check and he overbets with 46bb on a 32bb pot (is that a jam?).  Anyway, he's now polarized between the strongest hands a straight, sets and total air, mostly a missed flush draw.

So your question is prolly 'do we call or fold the river?'.  It's really dicey and this is where player history comes in and your reads or notes on him.  Has he been playing snug or has he been splashing around..?  It's a tough spot really and I wouldn't blame you for either calling or folding.  But in this spot and especially at lower stakes, this smells like the nuts and just fold unless I have a solid read that villain usually double barrels with a flush draw.

Edit:  I misread the hand at the turn.  You lead the turn around 3/4 pot showing strength and he just smooth calls.  This changes the dynamic and makes me really think he's now on the flush draw.  With how everything went, I reluctantly call on the river after checking.  It doesn't make sense unless he slow played a huge hand on the turn like a straight or a set but those hands usually raise for value and to let heart draws pay for the next card.

Yeah, it just doesn't make sense to me.  If he hit the K for top pair, would he really overbet and polarize his range between super strong hands and bluffs?  Smells like a busted heart draw..  I mean yeah he could have you beat but I def feel like it's a heart draw.

[Poker Player]

I am not really sure what you want to read...

So your question is prolly 'do we call or fold the river?'

I would like to specify that hand reading is normally done by analyzing from preflop to river. Apart from that, by leaving Hero's action in the river in question mark, the question there is what is the best course of action.

Do not edit the posts any further. My intention is to give the prize. If I were to end the week now or if during the week I have worse hand reads than I have here, I will give the prize to one of you.

[Mauser]

That is an interest hand you posted here, NL 6-max became my favourite game as you play more rounds than on an 9-max table and don't have to wait so long for action. A few observations before the round itself, it's probably a cash game round and not a tournament round which can make the analysis a bit different, like if we are close to the bubble and not have the option to stand up and leave. Our hero is chip leader at the table and all of the players have pretty big stacks with 5 people having more than 100 BB. The buyin range at the tables are usually 50-100 BBs, so all of the player must have sit down with around 100 BB I would assume.

Pre Flop: AT suited is a pretty nice hand in that position and we should prepare ourselves to play this hand almost 100% of the time as SB. There is no real option to let it go, except maybe an AllIn push in front of us. If the BTN hadn't raised this would be a clear raise against the BB. The BTN raise of 2.5BB is pretty standard in that position and usually an attempt to steal the blinds. The hero as chip leader should definitely defend it's blind here with almost any hand. We need to remember that it's a 6-max table, so the the starting hand ranges of the BTN are much larger. He is going to make this raise with almost any 10, Jack, Queen, King or Ace in his hand suited or not. Our AT suited is a strong hand and at this point I would believe we are ahead and have the stronger hand. That why I would already think about a small raise at this point to check the strength of the BTN. A call is fine, but at this spot we shouldn't always be calling only.

Flop: The flop is a decent one to keep playing, we don't like to see a heart but are holding two over cards that would let us win 37% withe Ace as high card. There is definitely value in the hand for us and the raise of 4 BB from the BTN seems a standard continuation bet. The BTN would make this bet with almost any hand again as he is trying to get you off your weak hands. The 4 BB call into a 10 BB pot seems a decent as we have a flush chance ourselves and an Ace high is also good for now.

Turn: Now the Ten comes and gives us the highest pair on the flop, but also ruins our flush chances. The BTN could already have the nuts with a straight which would be very rare. Also his possible flush chances are much lower now. We should be continuing our hand and expect to call a wide range of bets. What I don't like is the raise of the hero here. First of all the BTN raised two times into us, we should have raised before to check the strength of his hand and now we should react to him rather. Also it makes it too predictable that we just hit a ten and want to defend it, because a straight we would not bet. In case we hold the nuts at this point we would want the BTN to bet as much money into us. The bet size of 9 BB into 14 BB seems like an attempt to win the hand right here, but for that the bet size doesn't seem large enough, I would have checked here probably to see what the BTN does, or make a smaller bet to make sure flush draws don't get a free card. A bet of 6 BB would have been enough. His call gives us also a lot of information, as he is not trying to reraise and get us out of the hand. If we really wanted to win the hand right here on the Turn I would have choosen to reraise into a raise from the BTN. We are ahead here in most of the cases and have a 80% of winning.

River: Now the King we don't like so much, it makes things a bit more complicated again. It doesn't give us the top pair anymore if he holds a king, but would the BTN really call a 9 BB bet on the river with only holding King high? At least all flush chances are ruined and the chances for the BTN to hold a straight here are very small. We need to remember that it's a 6-max table and the BTN has a huge range of cards here. Our hero checks as he is probably afraid of the King. A check is fine, but we need to be prepared that a big raise will come from the BTN. The pot is already at 32 BB and BTN could try and steal the hand from us. A value bet would be fine as well here from our hero as he bet on the Turn before and has decent showdown value. Now the massive 46 BB from the BTN seems a bit strange, he is not going allin and saving around 50 BB in his stack behind. Our hero as chip leader is not put allin and the question now is do we only call or raise or fold. A fold is out of option in my opinion, there is no flush to represent and a value bet from a straight seems smaller. The BTN could have easily missed his hand completely and is only floating with nothing here. His two bets where all standard and don't give away anything. We are winning here in 75% of the cases and need to call 46 into a 78BB pot which gives us 59% pot odds. I would call here as there our hand is still good in many cases and the BTN bet size seems a bit off. It would also depend a bit on how long the hero has been playing on the table with the BTN. Maybe he has some notes on him, like does he play more losely or maybe he likes to bluff the river? In any case I would not be giving up my hand for a 1.4 pot bet. Calling seems like the best action here in my opinion.

[Betwrong]

First off, I'm going to suppose that the Villain(BTN) is not doing something stupid. Let's not underestimate our opponent, just in case.

Now, BTN raises preflop to 2.5 BB. He's probably having something, ok? Not much, maybe Q9 suited, but he's got to have something.

Flopping the top pair and seeing a check, BTN bets 4 BB, trying to avoid seeing possible unpleasant cards in the future. Also, BTN maybe has a backdoor flush draw.

Seeing Ts on the Turn, BTN calls 9 BB, hoping for another 9 or a Queen on the river.

After seeing Kc on the river and a check from Hero, BTN bets 46 BB, bluffing that he had K9 suited.

Hero, thinking that in the case of losing he will still have almost 50 BB, makes a hero call. And wins.

[SweetL0u]

Definitely 3bet preflop. Calling in the SB should generally be avoided because of the rake once you get to the flop, so it's better to 3bet your strong hands so that you have the chance to take down the pot right away. Realizing your equity (i.e. making it to showdown) also gets tougher if you just call preflop - BTN should be raising around 30% of hands here and it's hard to play OOP against such a wide range. Calling also opens you up to getting squeezed by BB.

As played, your flop play looks good. We shouldn't be folding to his raise with backdoor flush draw, backdoor straight draw, and two overs with an Ace.

There's no reason for you to lead the turn here. It allows BTN to easily fold his junk hands if he has nothing. This board is very connected so BTN will have a lot of hands that have decent equity to continue, which will lead you to have many difficult spots on the river. You also won't get any better hands to fold to this raise, so it's better to check/call for pot control.

As played, checking back river is good. Your hand has decent showdown value and it's hard to imagine BTN calling with a worse hand (maybe a fish would call with a 9, but even that seems unlikely). Checking also gives BTN the opportunity to bluff with his missed draws which he would otherwise fold if you bet into him.

Your hand is only a bluff-catcher by the river - what hands would villain bluff with? He would probably check back any flush draw that made a pair since he has showdown value and would block your folding range (i.e. if he has two hearts, then it's less likely that you were also on a flush draw that would fold to a river bet). He does have AhQh, AhJh, 6h7h, and maybe a few Qx and Jx suited hands that could definitely overbet a river like this.

It's funny though - I wouldn't expect to see an overbet for value from villain unless he has exactly QJ. 78 would raise your bet on the turn, and any of his non-nutted hands (sets, KT/K9, maybe AK) would probably bet smaller so that you would actually call his bet. Your hand looks very weak so it doesn't make sense for villain to overbet for value, so based on this I'm calling river. It's a very close spot though and you should still expect to lose to straights at some frequency here.

[Poker Player]

Since I'm going to be busy on Monday, there have been no analysis submissions in the last couple of days, and I already have a few to choose from, I'm going to close the game tonight.

Tomorrow I will reveal the encrypted message, expose my analysis and announce the winner.


Ok guys, so this is the signed message, I hope you can verify it (I just did).

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
For the prize to the best analysis of a poker hand, the criteria will be:

A) You have to talk about ranges. Not hands.
B) You have to narrow the ranges from preflop to river.
C) You have to talk about equity in the river.

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What I wanted to highlight with this analysis is the difference between old school poker theory and modern poker theory. In modern poker we talk about ranges, and even when we play we don't play our hand we play our range.

According to these criteria, the best analysis would be Mauser's, but I would also like to reward a little bit tokeweed's, as he also talked about ranges which was what I was looking for.

I propose to give Mauser 0.003 BTC and tokeweed the rest of what I have in that wallet, about 0.0008. I will PM Mauser to see if he agrees, because although in the title I talked about 0.003 BTC, then in the OP I talked about 0.003355 BTC for the best analysis.



I wanted to put my hand analysis separately for clarity. I would like to ask the moderators not to merge the posts, taking into account that these posts do not count for my signature campaign, and that I created this thread in an altruistic way.

----------------------------------

My analysis.

We can assume that the villain (rival) is stealing with 50% of the range. It may be more or less, but without more data, assuming 50% steal from BU is pretty safe. So, something like: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o

As for the flop, there is little to analyze. The villain makes a standard cbet, which on that flop he will do practically 100% of the time, so the range is the same. We could go into the range perceived by the villain of Hero’s call on the flop, because when he pays he has something, at least an underpair or overcards, as is the case, but I will not elaborate.

The turn comes and with TPTK, Hero decides to donk to extract value from worse hands like worse tens, some nines and also for protection against projects.
So, when the villain pays, with what range does he pay?

It's clear that he doesn't pay with hands like K5o, that don't connect anything on that board. I narrow the range to worse tens, some nines and draws. 78, sets and double pairs raise on that turn, because there are a lot of projects to protect from and to extract value. Of the monster projects, like TQd, I think most don't raise because there is only one street left, raising here isolates them against strong hands and makes bluffs fold. In short, the range of the opponent when paying is about 30% (I estimate), something like JJ+,ATs-A9s,K9s+,QTs+,Q8s,J8s+,T7s+,ATo-A9o,KTo-K9o,Q8o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o,87o

When the river comes, it makes no sense to bet again, weaker hands fold and stronger pay or raise. It is better to check call to catch bluffs. But when he bets 150% of the pot, he is polarizing, as Mauser and tokeweed pointed out. We need a minimum equity of about 35% to make a profitable call and even if we don’t narrow his range, with that river we have a 63% vs 37% equity, so it is a clear call.

But if we do things correctly, we need to narrow his range even further and we will see that the call is more profitable.
With that bet you only have bluffs or very strong hands. What strong hands does he have? Basically two. Sets and doubles have been discarded on the turn. The only ones I can see would be KK, that completes a set on the river and JQ that completes a straight. The rest are missed draws. So, we can see that calling on the river is extremely profitable.

I specifically wanted to emphasize with this hand that once we narrow the range of the villain, the hands we discard are not taken into account in the following streets. When we see the overbet on the river, someone without much experience in hand analysis, might think that the villain has completed a straight on the turn with 78 or that he has sets of 3, 6 or 9. But those hands have already been discarded, so we can not take them into account on the river.


And, btw, he happened to have J7o.


[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[SweetL0u]

I specifically wanted to emphasize with this hand that once we narrow the range of the villain, the hands we discard are not taken into account in the following streets. When we see the overbet on the river, someone without much experience in hand analysis, might think that the villain has completed a straight on the turn with 78 or that he has sets of 3, 6 or 9. But those hands have already been discarded, so we can not take them into account on the river.


And, btw, he happened to have J7o.

Hello OP,
Can you help me understand what do you mean by: those hands have already been discarded, so we can not take them into account on the river.

[Poker Player]

Hello OP,
Can you help me understand what do you mean by: those hands have already been discarded, so we can not take them into account on the river.

Of course, it is an essential element of hand analysis. It's just that instead of thinking of what particular hand the opponent has you'd better think of what range (multiple possible hands) he has in that spot. So depending on the actions at the table, you discard possible hands and when you discard them, you discard them for the following streets.

It is very common for regulars to bluff you when projects get completed, but if, for example, a tight regular raises from UTG, and on a Q28 A 5 board he reraises trying to make us believe that he has a straight with 34, we can pay for the raise with strong hands, such as AQ or sets, because we know he does not have 34. In the hand analysis when he raises preflop from UTG we put him in a range that does not include 34 at all. So if he doesn't have 34 preflop, he doesn't have that hand on the flop, turn or river.

I think it's better to have Alec Torelli explain it to you in a 5-minute video, in that he analyzes a hand quite similar to the one in this thread.

How to Put Your Opponents on a Hand Range

I call it narrowing but Torelli calls it funneling. Here you have a pdf example:

https://www.consciouspoker.com/handrangefunnelexample.pdf
 

[Mauser]

Just received my price and want to say thank you @Poker Player for this little analysis, it was fun and we should have more poker content here on the forum. Also congratulations @tokeweed for second place, it's better to share the price with more people. Have a great sunday   

[tokeweed]

I don't care about the prize tbh.  I love hand history analysis and have been doing it a lot back in the day.  Just make a football bet with the prize or something and we watch the match.  That'll be something that's going to make us happy.  

I suggest Liverpool to win and BTTS combo vs Tottenham.

And please post more of your hand histories here itt to avoid spam.  Would be glad to help as it helps me too in a way.  It's good practice away from the tables.

[Poker Player]

I don't care about the prize tbh.  I love hand history analysis and have been doing it a lot back in the day.  Just make a football bet with the prize or something and we watch the match.  That'll be something that's going to make us happy.  

I suggest Liverpool to win and BTTS combo vs Tottenham.

And please post more of your hand histories here itt to avoid spam.  Would be glad to help as it helps me too in a way.  It's good practice away from the tables.

I don't know about soccer or combined bets. I can bet it on Liverpool winning g and if I win I'll share the pirze with all of you who posted a hand analysis.

Btw I plan to open a thread about poker, putting my graphs, hands and statistics but I will open it in a few months.

I've just placed a 0.00082741 bet to Liverpool winning. If we win it won't be much, we'll see what happens with the winnings.

Edit: I've just thought of something better. If I win the bet, I think the prize will be around $35 in Bitcoin. I could create another game about poker but this time much more simple: It would consist of a hand but instead of making an analysis, it would be a matter of guessing that hand, the opponent's hand. That way it would be more fun and people who do not have much idea could participate, being able to perhaps guess correctly if they say a random hand.

[SweetL0u]

I don't care about the prize tbh.  I love hand history analysis and have been doing it a lot back in the day.  Just make a football bet with the prize or something and we watch the match.  That'll be something that's going to make us happy.  

I suggest Liverpool to win and BTTS combo vs Tottenham.

And please post more of your hand histories here itt to avoid spam.  Would be glad to help as it helps me too in a way.  It's good practice away from the tables.

I don't know about soccer or combined bets. I can bet it on Liverpool winning g and if I win I'll share the pirze with all of you who posted a hand analysis.

Btw I plan to open a thread about poker, putting my graphs, hands and statistics but I will open it in a few months.

I've just placed a 0.00082741 bet to Liverpool winning. If we win it won't be much, we'll see what happens with the winnings.

Edit: I've just thought of something better. If I win the bet, I think the prize will be around $35 in Bitcoin. I could create another game about poker but this time much more simple: It would consist of a hand but instead of making an analysis, it would be a matter of guessing that hand, the opponent's hand. That way it would be more fun and people who do not have much idea could participate, being able to perhaps guess correctly if they say a random hand.

Wow very clever, I think it will be more fun to guess a hand. I would participate and maybe eventually I would like to add my contribution to the prize

[Poker Player]

Wow very clever, I think it will be more fun to guess a hand. I would participate and maybe eventually I would like to add my contribution to the prize

Yeah, I think that's better. If we divide the prize between us here it will be like $7 each. I think it is more fun to create another game. Liverpool won btw.