Is the bear market over?

[Questat]

Let's first see what will happen in this month and especially December. We all know there's a history of Bitcoin having an ATH at that month, and it could pull up all the altcoins if ever it does bring a pump, even a small one would suffice to counter the bear market that happened in this year.
But for now, all I could say is that it is quiet, like its resting or hibernating.
If only the war didn't happen between Russia and Ukraine, it could've been different. Sanctions and the pandemic really messed up the economy.

Not all have that event (ATH) during December and not even this year as well. But what we probably see is a few pumps due to a surge of market demand, yet this won't lead to a bull market as we'd still be staying at the current situation until the end of this year. In fact, if we take the economic crisis and market inflation as a factor that could affect crypto, it certainly drags the price down the hill than expecting the price increase this year. Because as long as we facing the current economic status, it was really hard to think about ATH, even it was shown in the past years.

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[omone1]

Bitcoin at $20k is still a bear, all these little pumps is just normal buy and sell for daily traders, when bitcoin moves 2x I'll agree the bear is over, some altcoins are still very over priced, they need to go down more. 2018/2019 bear season will understand this better. However, we may never see the bear of 2018/2019 which was too harsh. this is because more persons have joined crypto and the development of Defi has been very massive. There are some of fund I just can't pull out from the market even though TA and FA may be horrible because of Defi.

[fzkto]

Bitcoin at $20k is still a bear, all these little pumps is just normal buy and sell for daily traders, when bitcoin moves 2x I'll agree the bear is over, some altcoins are still very over priced, they need to go down more. 2018/2019 bear season will understand this better. However, we may never see the bear of 2018/2019 which was too harsh. this is because more persons have joined crypto and the development of Defi has been very massive. There are some of fund I just can't pull out from the market even though TA and FA may be horrible because of Defi.

yes compared to the previous years we can say that bitcoin is very low and we still in the bear market, but I think since December is approaching we can see slight changes in their prices a little pump will do as well and we can say that probably next year around Q3 we can say that we recovered from this crashes but who knows right? we can't predict it very accurately we just need to be prepared to get rekt or to be rich again after these dips.

I don't understand what the price increase in December has to do with it? Do you think that statistically December was a good month for cryptocurrencies? Similarly, it is not clear to me why the third quarter of 2023 could be positive. It seems to me that in a few years, after the halving, we can expect a reversal and growth. Right now it's guessing on a crystal ball.

[agustina2]

"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"

Whether the bear market is over or not, we should just stick with our strategy that is effective during that trend. If only for hold, then disregard the current market situation and focus on accumulation. Don't just hope that someday a bull market should now happen as that was all useless if, in the end, we don't have enough hold coins to feel the profit.

Take the current as an opportunity to fill up our wallets. Of course, always do DYOR and not just buy random coins around.

[trendcoin]

I can't give an answer to this question right now, but I think there is no less than 13k dollars this year. If we make a trip below $13k, altcoins could lose more than 50%, and many could be wiped out in a protracted bear season. I hope we can recover quickly and have a good time again like the old days, but for now I don't have much hope for the bull season. Also, I won't get my hopes up again until I see clear signs of bull season.

[Xal0lex]

"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"

It's too early to tell. Volatility in the market is still very low. Negative forecasts on various economic indicators continue to appear with enviable regularity. I don't believe a bear market can end with the continued trend of rising rates, rising prices and inflation. These are incompatible things. In order for the bear market to end, some initiatives are needed. For example, providing liquidity from central banks. Otherwise, where will people get the money to buy and invest in various assets, especially risky ones?

[Raflesia]

I think with the current conditions it seems that Bearish is still going on and of course this is the answer that it's still not over for this bear market.
Regardless of anything we still see a condition that is not too eye-catching even though there are indeed some improvements but this is still only temporary and we still don't know what will happen next considering that things like this are sometimes unpredictable.
What I still always do now is just keep waiting and of course hold our portfolio because this is my version of the best choice.

[Yamifoud]

The economic crisis and price inflations aren't over yet OP, such a big coincidence happen while the crypto market is down as well. With this stance, I have never seen by chance that the bear season will end this year. Perhaps, we never know when but as we can see with the current situation, it is somewhat we need more time to wait to see the price come back to rally again. Yet, I was not hopeless, I still have trust in the market and I am willing to wait for the next halving and bull market.

[Viscore]

"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"

We can only answer for cypto though, and the answer is that we are still in the bear market, and we are not even in the center of it. We still have the whole 2023, for a long and hard grind and we still might see some altcoin projects not surviving or barely arrived, -95% down or even the most is 99%.

And so we will have to wait in 2024, at least that year we will see the catalyst for the whole crypto market to go on a bull season, it's the bitcoin block halving.

We can only tell if the market has already turned bullish when all the coins are experiencing 20% consistent price increase. And since it’s not yet happening, so obviously we are still at the bearish market. And anything could always be possible like seeing bitcoin bottom prices in the next days to come. However, knowing bitcoin halving is set to happen, then definitely bullish season will take over the market and see all the good coins increasing their value.

[goinmerry]

"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"

I don't want to consider the current market situation as still in a bear market because it's been the same situation, maybe several weeks ago up to now. It's just that market is not showing any signs of a bull run that's why other people still consider the current market situation as a bear. Not showing any signs of a price increase doesn't mean a bear market is still in effect.

If we are in a bear market, we should see our portfolios in a bloody status every now and then but that's not the situation we are seeing today.

[Tony116]

...
If only the war didn't happen between Russia and Ukraine, it could've been different. Sanctions and the pandemic really messed up the economy.

I agree that war, inflation, economic crisis are directly impacting the market but do you remember we entered the bearish season at the end of last year after reaching ATH, when war and inflation has not started yet. I mean we're in a crypto winter cycle, a four-year cycle, so I'm not sure that without inflation, war, we would have green days. We cannot blame war entirely but we must accept that we are in a bear cycle every year, and that's why we look forward to 2024 rather than the end of this crisis.

[DeathAngel]

I don’t think so, not yet. We haven’t seen enough panic yet, cycle bottoms are usually confirmed by a massive red candle on high volume. It’s usually caused by some kind of big news in real world.

I still think we go lower before mid 2023.

[Silberman]

I don’t think so, not yet. We haven’t seen enough panic yet, cycle bottoms are usually confirmed by a massive red candle on high volume. It’s usually caused by some kind of big news in real world.

I still think we go lower before mid 2023.

I think the same, the price went down a lot and this may give the impression there is no more chances for the price to go down, and if we add that the price has been going up slightly during the last days then people are eager to think the bear market is over, but just as you do I believe there is still potential for the price to go down even further as a new round of panic takes over the market, now I could be wrong but if that happens I will take advantage and use all my spare cash to buy bitcoin at such a discounted price.

[Dimitri94]

A little uptrend in the market creates some kind of excitement among the investors. Looking at today's picture, it seems that the market may be bullish. But it depends on how long it lasts. But after being bearish for a long time, naturally we can expect bullish. By this picture we can not say that the bear market is over.

[Humility4sure]

Despite the fact that we have some positive movements in several altcoin including bitcoin, we're yet to enter the bull run. The market is bearish as we can see that the value of Bitcoin hasn't made any substantial gains. I'm only positive that we may have some positive indications towards the end of the year and hopefully we'll see a bullish trend in the market.

[asriloni]

Despite the fact that we have some positive movements in several altcoin including bitcoin, we're yet to enter the bull run.

Bitcoin has not yet even entered into the recovery phase. bitcoin pumped a little bit from 20k to the 21k. The signal for the bearish market to be over must be bitcoin got pumped gradually and this never goes down again.
Just take a look at the old chart of bitcoin before the bear market is over and the price would always slightly going up and down. The signal for bearish market to end came once bitcoin has been making a big push that can trigger people to massively buying bitcoin.

The market is bearish as we can see that the value of Bitcoin hasn't made any substantial gains. I'm only positive that we may have some positive indications towards the end of the year and hopefully we'll see a bullish trend in the market.

yeah and that's what i do believe about bearish market will stay even longer. That's probably for around 3 years from now. I don't even think bitcoin will go up at the end of this year. Global economic crisis will be still happening.

[traderethereum]

Despite the fact that we have some positive movements in several altcoin including bitcoin, we're yet to enter the bull run. The market is bearish as we can see that the value of Bitcoin hasn't made any substantial gains. I'm only positive that we may have some positive indications towards the end of the year and hopefully we'll see a bullish trend in the market.

We can hope so although it is not certain that it will happen.
However, seeing the movement of bitcoin getting better than before, there is a possibility that some altcoins will start to increase first.
And if that happens, maybe we will repeat the incident in the previous year where some altcoins immediately posted the latest ATH followed by bitcoin which also experienced an increase.
And before all the coins start to increase, we must prepare ourselves in advance so that it is not too late to get big profits again.

[doomloop]

"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"

Whether the bear market is over or not, we should just stick with our strategy that is effective during that trend. If only for hold, then disregard the current market situation and focus on accumulation. Don't just hope that someday a bull market should now happen as that was all useless if, in the end, we don't have enough hold coins to feel the profit.

Take the current as an opportunity to fill up our wallets. Of course, always do DYOR and not just buy random coins around.

It's clearly not over. One of the indications that is over is when btc moves into a price level which was higher than what we have in the previous months. We should have a two seperate strategy. One is being used during the bear and one is being used during the bull. Given that we are still in a bear then yes you can stick on your bear strategy. That would be buying and then hodling.

This year's bear market duration is longer than usual. That's the reason why many are wishing for it to be over because they think they already fill their bags but for someone who only have less then we shouldn't blame them just yet. Maybe that's only their capacity.

[Altryist]

We can hope so although it is not certain that it will happen.
However, seeing the movement of bitcoin getting better than before, there is a possibility that some altcoins will start to increase first.
And if that happens, maybe we will repeat the incident in the previous year where some altcoins immediately posted the latest ATH followed by bitcoin which also experienced an increase.
And before all the coins start to increase, we must prepare ourselves in advance so that it is not too late to get big profits again.

The last bull cycle just started with the growth of bitcoin, and the altcoins waited, and only after that they began to catch up with bitcoin. I think everything will be the same in the next cycle, because very often altcoins take a wait-and-see position when bitcoin starts to rise, and when bitcoin becomes more or less stable, then altcoins begin their movement.

[serjent05]

We can hope so although it is not certain that it will happen.
However, seeing the movement of bitcoin getting better than before, there is a possibility that some altcoins will start to increase first.
And if that happens, maybe we will repeat the incident in the previous year where some altcoins immediately posted the latest ATH followed by bitcoin which also experienced an increase.
And before all the coins start to increase, we must prepare ourselves in advance so that it is not too late to get big profits again.

The last bull cycle just started with the growth of bitcoin, and the altcoins waited, and only after that they began to catch up with bitcoin. I think everything will be the same in the next cycle, because very often altcoins take a wait-and-see position when bitcoin starts to rise, and when bitcoin becomes more or less stable, then altcoins begin their movement.

So what do you think?  Is the altcoin bear market over?

If we look for the history of market movement, 2022 should be the year of the altcoin bull run, since way back 2017 was the Bitcoin bull run which counterparts the 2021 Bitcoin bull run, and the altcoin surge in 2018, which should make 2022 an altcoin bull run but the opposite happen.  I think the bear market isn't over yet and probably will just follow the Bitcoin movement.  There is no indication that the altcoin market will transition to a bull market yet because there are no huge hype happening in the altcoin market and the sentiment is still bearish.

This year's bear market duration is longer than usual. That's the reason why many are wishing for it to be over because they think they already fill their bags but for someone who only have less then we shouldn't blame them just yet. Maybe that's only their capacity.

True, I still have a bad feeling the bear market will continue to extend, I hope I am wrong but I think we won't see an altcoin bull market surge this 4 year Bitcoin cycle, and may see it on next cycle.  We can observe some sideways and some small surge but it won't be as grand as the 2018 altcoin surge.