Hmmm....No way!

[adaseb]

Discuss the events from the photos below.











It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?

[mk4]

Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.

..it didn't

[NotATether]

Though the crashes look almost identical, the reasons behind both crashes are completely different.

In 2018 it seems that there was just a natural bubble and an RSI smashed up against 70%. I wasn't around when this happened, so I cannot give an exact explanation beyond this.

In 2022 we had a series of unfortunate events (TM) instead of a natural bubble. Yes, $69,420 Bitcoin price was a bubble, so was $60K earlier before Tesla with Elon Musk popped it, but everything else was a completely artificial crash - from $40K or $30somthingK, some shitcoiner managed to indirectly bring the entire market at its knees.

[Stalker22]

I think it is just an interesting coincidence, nothing more. Unless CZ timed his tweet based on this. 

[carlfebz2]

I think it is just an interesting coincidence, nothing more. Unless CZ timed his tweet based on this. 

Lots had been speculating and anticipating that it was all part of the plan or simply in talks about being manipulation situation which i could not blame off for people to say so.

When we do tend to look back into those past years which people cant really that able to ignore nor avoid not to see these kind of patterns.I do agree on some explaination above about
bubble and incidents which it could be attached up with some events on some point and some which had totally that random movement.

Patterns could be formed but it wont really be assuring that it would be happening again in the future.

[UnDerDoG81]

Saw a video stating two times bottom reached the day after midterm elections. In 2014 and 2018.

[pixie85]

Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.

..it didn't

Patterns mean nothing. S2F is a good example but not the only one.

Benjamin Cowen, one of the most popular and respected cryptocurrency market analysts, has admitted that his flagship market model “is dead.” He did so in the context of Bitcoin’s falling price, while also falsifying the hypothesis he has been arguing for since 2019.
https://beincrypto.com/benjamin-cowen-lengthening-cycles-are-dead-end-of-a-great-narrative/



I like charts that you can find on https://www.lookintobitcoin.com They can give you a perspective of where we currently are compared to other years.

[STT]

Doesnt have to repeat, its a case of observation and contrast.   I do expect us to repeat this whole range from 20k possibly down to 10k as an extreme, simple reason being we lack volume in this area.   Theres little resistance when we previously briefly passed through every price in the teens.   As we move below 14k there are more prior BTC price points to slow us down but Im going to be surprised if we bounce right back up without any hesitation.



So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed.  At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed.   Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from.   In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.

[adaseb]

This is not like the 200WMA or the S2F which can overshoot. This was correct to the exact week.

Look how bad the sentiment is right now. People are abandoning crypto and retail adoption will be completely dead. Why wouldn't this be the bottom?

I don't know how many of you were around in bottom of 2015 or bottom of late 2018, but nobody was getting into crypto then. And since nobody was getting in, it was the perfect time to get in.

[pixie85]

So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed.  At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed.   Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from.   In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.

I don't think that it's as simple as you portray it in a market with no liquidity, driven by fear and emotion and a very small amount of bitcoins traded. On most exchanges it was a drop of about 4k BTC that made us go all the way from 19k to 17k. 4k is nothing when you compare it to the total supply which means the circulating supply worldwide is less than 10% of the total supply.

People who had money frozen on FTX sold in panic but their money remained frozen - they gained nothing.
Possible scenarios?

Their money gets unfrozen and they move to another exchange and buy back. If only half of them buys we'll be above 19k in an instant because we went from 16 to 18 on money from other sources than the dying exchange so other people bought the panic. If the panic calms down and get back on the market the situation will return to what it was before the drama.

Levered longs got liquidated so most people are now either shorting or out of the market. A short squeeze to 20k is possible.

It looked like BTC was bottoming at 17k and recovering. This situation is not a normal macro trend but rather a black swan event. I wouldn't look for macro lower lows here. If we get lows these are going to be a result of further drama with exchanges.

[Vinaa77]

Every time there is a high pile of ice it will melt. We small traders are just waiting for the time. There is nothing wrong on the chart. Every increase must be started with a mature plan, and so is the decrease in price must be started with a well-thought-out plan. They are shareholders just waiting for the right moment, and the right issue to make a change.

[OgNasty]

Don’t underestimate the power of fractals. While different market factors have made things not as clear cut as they’ve been in the past, I think the future will still rhyme with history. You can’t deny the block reward’s effect on the exchange rate over time and so far things are performing about as expected if you are a believer of the fractal pattern. I would feel better buying here than at $50K. Unless the crypto experiment is over, now is a time to be a buyer and not a seller.

[adaseb]

So technically this pattern didn't play out. If you zoom in you will see that on all exchanges price briefly dipped below the ATL (of the year) and quickly went up. So if this patterns holds it was off by 2 weeks.

I remember when we were heading for the lows in that week and honestly it looked bad and I assumed we would be at $12K by now judging by how quickly companies were declaring bankrupcy and it was bad news one after the other.

Hopefully it was indeed the cycle low.

[OgNasty]

Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.

..it didn't

Yes, but we now know the reason why it didn’t, so I wouldn’t count on the pattern being dead yet. Regulations will likely be implemented soon to keep exchanges from funneling money meant for BTC into shitcoins. FTX is the reason we didn’t hit $100K+ last cycle. The next cycle, if exchanges are banned from using customer funds to buy shitcoins and then go bankrupt, things could get wild. We may see a $500,000 BTC in 2025. I’m glad I’m not on the sidelines.

[franky1]

2013 and 2017 and 2021 are all ATH that are 1 year after a halvening event

its where prices speculate to premium bubbles and get too high. and then correct down back to value

the highs are pre bubble. the hype and premium. they are not sustainable prices.

the correction is back down to sensible sustainable value amounts

welcome to the world of the 4 year cycle

[fullhdpixel]

Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.

..it didn't

Yes, but we now know the reason why it didn’t, so I wouldn’t count on the pattern being dead yet. Regulations will likely be implemented soon to keep exchanges from funneling money meant for BTC into shitcoins. FTX is the reason we didn’t hit $100K+ last cycle. The next cycle, if exchanges are banned from using customer funds to buy shitcoins and then go bankrupt, things could get wild. We may see a $500,000 BTC in 2025. I’m glad I’m not on the sidelines.

The trend that they are expecting must be the down trend and it did happened actually and there are different reasons about it. The wars, economic crises, the collapse of the exchange. These are only the few id like to mention.

At some point, the decline would stop because people are also actively buying when the price dips and then there are now positive news that we are seeing. This brings a confidence again for the people to continue their crypto journey despite of the hardships that they are facing. Last year was a bull time and there's no FTX issues yet that time. It's only just a bear which prevented BTC from climbing at the $100k mark.

[Welsh]

2013 and 2017 and 2021 are all ATH that are 1 year after a halvening event

its where prices speculate to premium bubbles and get too high. and then correct down back to value

the highs are pre bubble. the hype and premium. they are not sustainable prices.

the correction is back down to sensible sustainable value amounts

welcome to the world of the 4 year cycle

Except this time we've got a major recession which will surely impact this cycle. I'm not a fan of studying patterns in the first place, but I hope that users are taking the recession, and the unprecedented times into consideration when they're investing, and managing their expectations based on that.

I imagine pre 2024 when the halving is coming, we'll see some optimism, but it might not be to the level that we've seen previously. Maybe, we will see the four year pattern once again, but at a much more diluted way.

[NeuroticFish]

It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?

Only two steps compared are - by far - insufficient to draw conclusions that the situation/chart will be matching.
As an overly simplified example is like seeing the first two numbers (1,1) in a Fibonacci and decide that the next values will all be 1.

However, adding that we do expect 4-year cycles match (hence Q4 2022 should bring the trend reversal and we're close to the end of that), adding that the halving is somewhere at the horizon and adding a significant amount of hopium can make us jump to the conclusion the bear market is over.

I wish you're right, but ... it's by far inconclusive data.
Nice charts though.

[LoyceV]

My TL;DR: prices go up, prices go down. If I could predict it, I'd be rich, but I learned a long time ago I can't time the market. So it comes down to long-term expectations, and I expect Bitcoin to do much better than dollars or euros.

[Welsh]

My TL;DR: prices go up, prices go down. If I could predict it, I'd be rich, but I learned a long time ago I can't time the market. So it comes down to long-term expectations, and I expect Bitcoin to do much better than dollars or euros.

Not a truer word spoken. I see a lot of talk about patterns, but none of us are ever able to capitalize on them. Since, as you correctly point out; if we did we'd be stinking rich. Obviously, you need the starting capital to make that happen, but I think a lot of users here rely on that four year cycle pattern a little bit too much.

Halving's are generally quite a exciting time though. Both prior to it, and after. That's simply just because people are optimistic, other than any sort of pattern though.