The world’s baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years

[Hydrogen]

“Demographic shifts” can mean many things. The composition of a body of people—median age, ethnic makeup, and more—all fall into the category.

But in the context of the labor shortage that has gripped the world economy since the pandemic began, it has coincided with one of Elon Musk’s big worries: The world isn’t having enough babies.

He has previously said the world’s declining birth rate is “one of the biggest risks to civilization,” which will “crumble” if the world doesn’t have more children. Now two major employment websites, Indeed and Glassdoor, are looking forward to 2023’s workforce (and well beyond that) to predict whether the “demographic shifts” of the last few years will continue. In short, yes—and it means the labor shortage is here to stay for a while.

Using World Bank projections and analyzing employment trends across several countries, economists for both job sites found the number of people of working age (15 to 65) is set to decline in the coming years. That means hiring will be more difficult and workers will have more leverage over employers.

The decline in people of working age will partly stem from an aging population, the number of deaths exceeding births, and reduced immigration. For example, the U.S. and U.K.'s population growth will be driven solely by net migration. And in the U.K., deaths are projected to exceed births by 2025.

The U.S., U.K., France, and Canada are all projected to see their working-age population decline by more than 3% from 2026 to 2036.

Meanwhile, during that same period, Germany is projected to see a decline of more than 7%—driven by its aging population and migration trends that haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Additionally, the report said Japan’s demographic prospects are “particularly stark,” with its population forecasted to fall from 128 million in 2010 to below 100 million by 2050—and the share of those ages 65 and older will soar.

“Without sustained immigration, an increase in labor productivity, or a focus on attracting workers on the sidelines of the labor force, these countries simply won’t have enough workers to fill long-term demand for years to come,” Indeed and Glassdoor’s chief economist wrote in a foreword to the report.

So despite warnings of a looming recession, and a potential decline in “employers’ hiring appetites,” finding candidates will be a challenge—giving way for workers to demand higher pay, stronger benefits, and flexible schedules.

“In a moment like this, with so many headlines about layoffs, it perhaps feels a little bit weird to talk about long-term hiring challenges,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, told Bloomberg. “But the reality is, it is precisely in moments like this when it's easy to lose the trees for the forest. It’s easy to conflate the near-term cyclical with long-term structural challenges in the labor market.”

But a declining birth rate isn’t necessarily bad news despite the hiring challenges it may present. It’s often a sign of economic progress: Women have more opportunities to choose their own path in life, whether it’s prioritizing school, a career, or a life without children at all.

While some demographers worry alongside Musk that this could create a workforce crisis down the line, it doesn’t have to come to that if society adjusts properly. This may vary from country to country depending on their economies, but it's at least the case in the U.S., as Christine Percheski, associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University, told Insider last year, the country would need to make structural adjustments like creating new policies that accommodate changes in population size.

Besides—while U.S. birth rates hit a record low during the pandemic, a new study from the Economic Bureau of Research found that there was a COVID “baby bump” after all. Whether this will hold steady is unclear, but it shouldn’t matter for the workforce if we shift our mindsets to view a lack of labor as more of a new norm than a shortage and adjust accordingly.

That might begin with paying attention to employees’ changing wants and needs. They care more about a company’s culture and its diversity and inclusivity initiatives, the report found. So to stay competitive in a challenging labor market, employers have to keep up with workers’ demands.

“Beyond a competitive wage, offering employees top-notch benefits, positive, engaging company culture, and commitment to DEI initiatives will remain incredibly important to help win talent in a competitive and changing labor market,” the report said.



https://news.yahoo.com/world-baby-shortfall-bad-labor-190124685.html

....


I seem to remember economic charts claiming average worker productivity has more than doubled from the 1950s to present day. If productivity continues to increase, the population and worker size needed to sustain construction, maintenance and development projects should shrink. On the opposite end of the spectrum, reports have claimed more than 50% of jobs are vulnerable to automation. People of today are caught somewhere in the middle of both trends. Not the most comfortable or stable place to be. And so perhaps begins the genesis of some of the future crisis we will face.

The unsaid argument would appear to be one where predominantly european nations attempt to produce more children. To maintain a majority in the face of high immigration. Not knowing that many 3rd world countries have families that produce 10 to 20 children as an ideal standard. If residents of european descent nations could produce that many children, I think they could not afford to feed, school and clothe them. The strategy is flawed on a fundamental level.

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

[STT]

Its true of China and alot of westernized countries that they become top heavy.  Its deceptively not important to the majority of people but it matters if you ever intend to retire.  Despite all your savings, a person who stops working is relying on a working economy of the young people of that nation to maintain a countries ability to buy goods from abroad and produce its own.  Especially if you own currency or bonds this is your future as a retired person but it applies to the whole of society, very few people can say they are fine no matter what; all of us import in goods for convivence and time.
  Ultimately without working young people the price to buy pre made goods will rise, if you arent doing it yourself you rely on others to do it so maybe you own it but a country becomes insecure.   Japan is quite advanced in this regard as a study of advanced average age in a population.
 
  China enforced 1 child policy for decades, this means the country has a declining working population.  Despite having alot of people, everyday China is becoming less competitive and Vietnam can undercut them today and in future many nations which leaves technology perhaps as a savior only maybe.

[Zlantann]

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

No continent or nation is an island, because we all need each other to survive. Currently Asia and Africa has population advantage than Europe, while Europe are more prosperous and technologically advanced. Europe would continually need immigrate workers because it seem that most families are not willing to give birth to many children. But most families in Africa can somehow afford to give birth and rise many children even in the face of economic hardship. It has been like this for many centuries and it would take a long time to change this population imbalance.

Europe don't need to compete with other countries regarding population because they might never win. Workable and productive immigration policies should be put in place to attract the right skills from other populated countries to Europe. Rich countries should invest on these developing and populated nations in areas like infrastructures, education and security. This would discourage illegal immigrations and also serve as a immigration pool where European nations can successful attract the needed manpower that might coverup for their population deficiency.     

[lovesmayfamilis]

As long as European society is democratic toward LGBT members, they should not expect an increase in the population. As for Asian society, there has always been overpopulation and a high birth rate. A good way out of the situation for all Europeans will be if they themselves are not able to give birth to children, help Asian countries educate children, and make them good specialists.

[Gyfts]

Normally the young workers subsidize the cost of of older retired workers but the ratio isn't proportional anymore with how high the life expectancy is and how low the birth rates are, so perhaps countries with lower birth rates could loosen up the immigration laws and import more labor for lower skilled jobs and allow immigrants to work up the economic ladder. There are millions of immigrants ready to immigrate to newer countries if given the opportunity -- cultural assimilation would be a barrier, but I figure it's a low cost to pay if your population isn't able to maintain itself.

[stompix]

As long as European society is democratic toward LGBT members, they should not expect an increase in the population.

Wow, thee must be a lot of LGBT members in Russia based on this assumption

As for Asian society, there has always been overpopulation and a high birth rate.

I wonder why here LGBT doesn't matter, of course, there are no such people in the Philippines or Malesia or Vietnam or Sarcasmland.
Let's throw in Mexico or Brazil?
You're going to have a shock once you realize there is different world outside what russiatoday is telling you.

But most families in Africa can somehow afford to give birth and rise many children even in the face of economic hardship. It has been like this for many centuries and it would take a long time to change this population imbalance.   

They afford to give birth, but they don't afford to actually grow them and provide the resources for studying and changing their lives, they will live in poverty, sharing the few pennies their parents earn, then marry at your age to split the costs of living then having more kids because that's how they were bought up and so on and on.
The same thing happened in Europe also, my grandparents combined had 21 brothers and sisters, and now only one of all my same-age relatives has 2 kids the rest, just like me have just one.

The focus has shifted from having a large family to supporting each other to having a smaller one that can afford everything without sacrifices.

In short, yes—and it means the labor shortage is here to stay for a while.

Oh wait, does this invalidate the other 10 articles you linked about the sky-high unemployment that will follow this "recession", and other predictions? 

[so98nn]

We are short of babies, dam that must be psychic assumption from Elon Musk. I think he does not understand each baby costs you food, money, health and living! From diaper changing to making him/her marry a right person it takes huge stuff from parents. 

Dude does not even know there is part of world which is vulnerable to higher death rate due to hunger and no water and no proper authorities to provide substantial healthcare.

And he wants to grow the population even more?

I have seen him stating that “AI are far more dangerous than Nukes” and that mean automatic industry is gonna take peak soon. Where would the extra babies work?

Oh yeah right may be Mars.

[Smartprofit]

We are short of babies, dam that must be psychic assumption from Elon Musk. I think he does not understand each baby costs you food, money, health and living! From diaper changing to making him/her marry a right person it takes huge stuff from parents.  

Dude does not even know there is part of world which is vulnerable to higher death rate due to hunger and no water and no proper authorities to provide substantial healthcare.

And he wants to grow the population even more?

I have seen him stating that “AI are far more dangerous than Nukes” and that mean automatic industry is gonna take peak soon. Where would the extra babies work?

Oh yeah right may be Mars.

In many countries, an increase in living standards leads to a decrease in the birth rate.  

People try to live for their own pleasure and have sex using condoms.  They eat delicious food, drink delicious drinks, buy expensive clothes and household appliances, attend theaters and concerts.  The uneducated poor have only one entertainment in life - to have sex without condoms.  Wealthier people in big cities have a million ways to entertain themselves.  

However, there are many different countries in the world and not all countries have a high standard of living.  There is also labor migration.  

People from poor depressed regions move to richer countries.

In my opinion, demographic problems are problems that can be solved, it is not fatal for humanity.

[gantez]

If Elon musk is needing more children, he need to know that they will be growing into youths that will need jobs additional to what the world feeling at current. He should plan of establishing more companies where can absolve more employees. Apart from Tesla employing 99,000 people
, tweeter is around 7,500 .



More real manufacturing company is needed from musk to back up his agenda for more children.

[kryptqnick]

Birth decline can be worse in some places and nearly nonexistent in others. Migration, as the article duly notes, can help with the labor shortage, so there's finally a good argument against the misguided anti-immigration rhetoric. I personally think that all should be welcome if they wish to relocate, and it's in the interest of those states that welcome immigrants to find them jobs and basic living opportunities. I've seen a lot of research that in the vast majority of cases, such investments pay off, so it's not only ethically but also economically desirable.
Not to mention a couple of positive things the article mentioned, such as fewer births indicating more opportunities for women being available and workers now having more leverage over employers due to labor shortage.

[DrBeer]

Given the increase in the level of automation and robotization of production, the demand will be left to educated specialists. The demand for a simple labor force is unlikely to grow, as the population growth in third world countries outpaces the growth in developed countries. Accordingly, the demand for a simple labor force will be covered by third world countries. The population growth in developed countries is already not high, but stable enough, and will cover the need for educated personnel at the same level as now. Yes, there will be a small drawback, but critical problems, subject to a higher level of automation, most likely will not happen

[Ultegra134]

We are short of babies, dam that must be psychic assumption from Elon Musk. I think he does not understand each baby costs you food, money, health and living! From diaper changing to making him/her marry a right person it takes huge stuff from parents.  

Dude does not even know there is part of world which is vulnerable to higher death rate due to hunger and no water and no proper authorities to provide substantial healthcare.

And he wants to grow the population even more?

I have seen him stating that “AI are far more dangerous than Nukes” and that mean automatic industry is gonna take peak soon. Where would the extra babies work?

Oh yeah right may be Mars.

In many countries, an increase in living standards leads to a decrease in the birth rate.  

People try to live for their own pleasure and have sex using condoms.  They eat delicious food, drink delicious drinks, buy expensive clothes and household appliances, attend theaters and concerts.  The uneducated poor have only one entertainment in life - to have sex without condoms.  Wealthier people in big cities have a million ways to entertain themselves.  

However, there are many different countries in the world and not all countries have a high standard of living.  There is also labor migration.  

People from poor depressed regions move to richer countries.

In my opinion, demographic problems are problems that can be solved, it is not fatal for humanity.

To be honest, I haven't thought of that. Now, due to the modern age, condoms are pretty much the easiest and safest method to prevent STDs and unwanted pregnancies. A few decades ago, their usage wasn't as widespread compared to now, which potentially also contributes to the birth deficit the West is facing. You can easily guess that 3rd world countries aren't keen on using them judging by how many children they're having, living in poor conditions, and often working since a very young age. 

People in the past had larger families but different raising standards. Children now require a lot more attention and activities, and we're focusing on their education. The total population is constantly rising; it reached 8 billion a few days ago, but this increase is not coming from the West. In the next few years, we're going to face extreme immigration issues, something we're already facing.

[2stout]

If this baby shortfall is indeed this bad, then perhaps robotics and automation could help fill the void.  Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on one's view, it appears 3rd worlds will continue to supply the bulk of the manual labor.

[KingsDen]

Re: The world’s baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years

Every excesses have something to curb it. The nature has a way to balance itself. If it is not balanced by nature, technology will balance it.
Can we say that since the land is fixed and the population is increasing, there will be a time that the world land mass will no longer contain the population of the world?

The more the world goes, the more physical industries collapse and pave way for amazon like industries that houses a large percentage of the world without a building.

Nothing to fear, technology and robotics is knocking so many people out of job. Presently there is a very large rate of unemployment, when will the shortage of labor happen?

[dothebeats]

Given how a lot of jobs are being automated right now, I guess the decline in birth rates wouldn't be any problem at all. In manual labor and trades where manpower is really needed, perhaps that will be the industry which would be hit the most. Outsourcing employees has been the go-to of Western countries for a long time if they want something done at a very cheap rate, and if Western employers are keen on extending their workforce without having to pick underqualified Westerners for the job, they can invest on some workers from Asia and other populous countries and fly them to where they wanted them to do the job. Quite expensive investment at first but it pays off knowing how a lot of Asian people have good work ethics even in this day and age of quitters and "quite resignation" trend.

[adaseb]

This is why many countries such as Canada are increasing immigration. Because it’s expensive having kids here, nobody is having them. If they are it’s usually 1 kid. Daycare and everything is so expensive nobody can afford kids.

The governments solution is to allow immigration. Which would solve the cheap labor issue but where will these people live? We got a bad housing situation in Canada. It will solve one problem and create another pretty much.

[siniminomorocomunisakito]

In my view, the most promising way to solve the demographic problem on Earth is to increase the average standard of living in underdeveloped countries, and equality of rights for women in these countries.

Any country that implements a social policy to help families, such as paid maternity leave, will have fewer demographic problems. In this case, demographic issues can be easily overcome.

[Ahli38]

But for now in my country the opposite is happening. i.e. we have a lot of human resources but we lack job vacancies. and the number of unemployed in our country is very large.
even technological advances have taken away the jobs of thousands of people in factories near my house. there is no link for proof because no one has reported it. namely shoe factories in my area initially absorbed nearly 25 thousand employees who worked in them. In the process of making shoes there is something called cutting. and the number of workers is thousands of people. and now almost everyone in charge of cutting at the factory has been dismissed. because the factory now uses machines/robots to process cutting materials for shoes. so that the presence of these machines or robots has caused thousands of people to lose their jobs in my area. and I think things like this don't just happen in my area but on other area too.

so for me for now we (in my country) are more worried about the fewer job vacancies. while undergraduate graduates continue to grow every year. and causing the unemployment rate to continue to rise.

on the other hand, MSMEs also continue to grow more rapidly because people who do not have a job prefer to make their own business. it looks good. but in fact the competition is getting tighter. so that the number of consumers is not balanced with the increasing number of traders. so that many of the MSME traders experienced bankruptcy.

I think worrying about the current declining population rate for some countries is unnecessary. but I also know that in some countries there is a shortage of workers and it is only natural for some of these countries to be worried about the decline in the population level in their country. but the solution is always there and has even been done.

namely countries such as Japan and Malaysia always bring in workers from other countries which do have excess workers such as from Indonesia.

Another solution to the shortage of workers is the use of robots which are now growing rapidly.

And it would be hilarious if one day the people who spoke about the concerns of the human population and workers. are those robot developers. which has replaced many human jobs.

Sorry if my discussion is a little off topic.

And what is noteworthy is that the Indonesian state has actually carried out a family planning program since 1957. That is, we were only advised to have 2 children per family. but population growth here is still out of control.
(Bkkbn.go.id)

[DrBeer]

A few words about what many do not like - automation and robotization of production. I often hear that "she is to blame for the fact that we were left without work." Today, automation in 99% replaces, not the most qualified, manual labor. Here's how the post above - about cutting blanks for shoes.
But people do not understand that this is a NATURAL process!
Mankind has already passed it a huge number of times. The first lifting machines - dampened the demand for primitive physical strength and a huge number of people. The first ICEs - replaced horse teams and removed almost completely a whole layer of the economy - horse breeding, forging, and others related to this process. That is what is happening now. But there are many people who, realizing the coming changes, have prepared - trained, invested, changed jobs ... No offense - but people more often choose the path of complaining and suffering about absolutely simple events and expected things, but they don’t want to do anything to change themselves, and don't suffer.

[Mauser]

The unsaid argument would appear to be one where predominantly european nations attempt to produce more children. To maintain a majority in the face of high immigration. Not knowing that many 3rd world countries have families that produce 10 to 20 children as an ideal standard. If residents of european descent nations could produce that many children, I think they could not afford to feed, school and clothe them. The strategy is flawed on a fundamental level.

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

I feel like the whole immigration policies we have in Europe for the last 10 years are not really working out in the way they are supposed to. It's been almost 8 years since the large migration from the middle east to Europe, and I am still not hearing about all the positive benefits which were promised to us. It's true that European countries are ageing and we need more young people over here. But what is more critical is that European countries try to get all their young people into universities. It became so common to have an Bachelor or Masters degree over here, that we are lacking a lot of young people doing the actual work. There are more than 1 million people missing from the workforce in specialised works like construction, nursing, electronics or other jobs where you don't need a long theoretical education but rather a practical education. And from what I have heard is that young people who are immigrating to Europe are also not keen to work in those areas. Many parents from abroad doing everything in their power to send their children to university over here. It also doesn't help that university education is for free and the government will give you money for your living expenses without any interest during your studies. This trend is going to get larger in my country, we will have more unemployed university graduates and not enough actual workers doing the necessary jobs. Hopefully with the double digit inflation we have now the income for the lower level jobs is going to rise exponentially to make it more attractive for younger people in school right now to switch career paths.