Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Charting

[CryptoDor]

Hello ladies and gentlemen. I am kind of new here to this forum, but I am not new to bitcoin.

I've been always thinking about ways to make more bitcoin. Some people prefer to "day trade" in order to gain currency (dollars) via the "instrument" of bitcoin itself.
And some say you should never marry to an asset and only care about profits. And you could imagine if one BTC was 10 million dollars everyone on this forum would be happy, as long as 1 roll of toilet paper is not 1000$ (USD) in the store (indicating there's huge inflation).

So let's get back to the topic, we're here to make money, some - to make more btc, others to make more USD by trading BTC, the end goal is to be "rich" or at least profitable.
What is the biggest benefit of trading in my opinion? The ability to "short - hedge" which means to preserve USD capital and make more bitcoins while FTX is crashing.




For anybody not knowing how shorting works - this is how it would look like in a real life example;

Imagine you go out on a walk in the city, you reach a certain street and see huge line with people - lining up to get the latest model of an iPhone.
Suddenly a dude who's just leaving the store comes to you and asks you if you want his iPhone, as long as you can return it back to him brand new (unopened) next year exactly on the same day.
You scratch your head for a moment and decide to take his phone while agreeing on the deal. Next moment you ask yourself - wouldn't it be great to sell instantly this brand new phone to somebody on the same line of people in front of the store, maybe for a dollar less, but still close to the original price (1998$) since it's brand new and has never been used.
The days pass by, around 360 days to be exact, you remind yourself you need to return back the unopened phone to that dude from 1 year ago. You rush to the store and buy that same old model so you can return it back.
It appears the price has fallen to 1299$ since the "next generation" model will be up in less than 5 days and people will want to buy it, good for you...
You just purchased it for 1299$ while still having those 1998$ from 1 year ago.

And now what happened? Literally 5 days later you return the phone to the cool dude which gave it to you just like that, and keep a profit of (1998-1299)=699$
Exactly, you won 699$ out of thin air.
Congratulations, that's your first short trade, you managed to sell something while it's at a high price and buy it back later for cheap while keeping the profit for yourself.

The same strategy can be applied to shorting bitcoin, if you did so before the fall of FTX, or before the start of a possible war conflict or any other bad news ... yes even without technical analysis.
Yes ... if you short, you actually make bitcoins on the way down. You protect yourself, you collect blood from the streets. It might be unethical but it might benefit you in the long term.


And here comes the technical analysis point, by having a chart in front of your face, you can determine (speculate) where the asset is overvalued at the moment and short it and buy it back lower when it's cheap.
Let me know what your thoughts are on this topic.
With best regards, CryptoDor.

[1714667768]

1714667768

[Tytanowy Janusz]

"In the stock exchange market, 90% of traders fail to be profitable yearly. Based on significant brokers' statistics, 80 percent of traders lose, 10 percent of traders are break-even, and 10 percent make money consistently."
https://www.forex.in.rs/why-traders-lose-money-in-forex/

Shorting is not as easy as borrowing iphone and giving back when new is about to be released. At least this example is way too simplified.

To short:
1- you have to have collateral
2- you are exposed to margin call
3- most inexperienced traders will sooner or later gamble with leverage
4- you are exposed to flash crash
5- you have to hold founds on exchanges (you are exposed to exit scams, haks, "liquidity issues")
6- you are exposed to short squeez

Shorting is for experienced traders. At least 5 years of trading/investing.

Yes ... if you short, you actually make bitcoins on the way down. You protect yourself, you collect blood from the streets. It might be unethical but it might benefit you in the long term.

There is nothing unethical in this. Every trader brings liquidity into market - helps other traders/investors. Thanks to your sell order someone who wanted to buy, bought cheaper (would fill in next order in order book, most likely with higher price). Thanks to you, closing your short position and your buy order someone who wanted to sell have liquidity to sell at higher price. Every trader brings net positive value for others. No mater if short/long trader.

[CryptoDor]

To short:
1- you have to have collateral
In order to invest in general, you have to have collateral

2- you are exposed to margin call
If you are not taught to use stoploss (and have proper risk management), you're not trading but gambling

3- most inexperienced traders will sooner or later gamble with leverage
That's why they need to chart and actually use demo paper money accounts before everything else.

4- you are exposed to flash crash
Flash crashing will only fill the pockets of short traders with money.

5- you have to hold founds on exchanges (you are exposed to exit scams, haks, "liquidity issues")
The best part being a trader is actually using leverage properly.
Let's say you have 100$ to trade or invest, but are afraid the exchange will "exit scam", you can allocate only 10$ on that exchange and cover the rest by using 10x leverage (thus trading with 100$, but having only 10$ on that particular exchange). Proper risk management and stoploss usage shall follow.

6- you are exposed to short squeez
Stoploss is your invalidation.

[STT]

A short is a future order to buy, thats the way I'd prefer to look at it.  Ironically the buyers who come in at the bottom when its not expected might well be the shorts closing out.
   Anyhow I would guess now is the time to short, its all ironic and we reached something of a low for the moment quite possibly.   Sellers can become exhausted and that is a time to dig for whatever optimism possible and vice versa, the short would come in when people are people too hopeful vs prospects.    Short is normally a brief time frame, its higher risk.
   I think BTC is building quite well right now its demonstrated good health since the lows, my target upside to solidify that gain as something genuine is 18k where we would be passing a monthly average.  Considering everything to be able to hold that level would be quite significant.

Gauge strength, progress by the low to high on 9th Nov  NYC time.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

To short:

[...]

Stoploss is your invalidation.

Yea i know that experienced trader will deal with these but my point was not to target shorting and calling it a bad thing that people should avoid. My point was that your story about iphone is nowhere close to shorting and I pointed risk that you seam to forget to mention in your post where you were talking about benefits only and how easy shorting is.