Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum

[_BlackStar]

Very true. Bitcoin also doesn't give any shit on other altcoins. This is also from my experience before. I got big regrets before, holding too many altcoins or swapping my Bitcoins before to altcoins were my biggest regret.
Now, I already learned the lesson.

I barely even owned any altcoin other than USDT, and it was only a few moments before I found another dip and invested. I only own bitcoin and that's the reason why I invest in crypto. Some altcoin I might also consider, but not at this time because I think maximizing opportunities to buy bitcoin cheaply will be more difficult in the future, and this is it.

When I feel the target or amount of bitcoin I have collected is sufficient for the long term ^{[according my budget]} then maybe I will consider 1-2 of the best altcoin for investment. I understand that some people may be skeptical of altcoin, but I'm not entirely. But now I think it's not the time to think about altcoin because I think this opportunity really should be put to good use.

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[redsun114]

It's okay to invest in other investments if the investor knows and understands what with it ahead from those investments. If he's from the stock market and then suddenly reverted his attention to bitcoin and started investing, I doubt it that he'll leave the stock market. But what he'll likely do is to maximize his capacity, resources and knowledge in investing in both areas because he understands pretty well the other one and starts to know more with the other one. However, we're all agreeing here that in summary, bitcoin's the best and is the king of this market and soon most assets will look after it.

There are investments who are ahead in terms of profit, I mean they can increase faster but the only problem is that they are only short lived. Investors must be careful on that kind of coins. if they don't know its mechanics or how to play its game, it would be better if they will stay away with it and stick with safer coins instead.

If someone is from stocks then I think there is only a less chance that they will get involved here in btc but if they do then I do not think they will leave stocks but if someone starts with crypto, they will surely stick on here because imo it was easier and more profitable. I know it's only risky a little bit but it can be handled as long as we learn the basics.

[maydna]

This can't be going on and on without end. We all know how Bitcoin goes bearish and bullish and bearish again and bullish again etc. What we are going through right now can be justified. This bear season is brought about by macroeconomic factors and then shit happened with FTX and several other crypto platforms. Many have probably felt it that there will be more room to fall for Bitcoin and they sold. But this doesn't mean that people are losing trust in Bitcoin. So this is just temporary. There are bullish days ahead.

That is why we must always be aware of the movement of bitcoin because we will never know where it will move even though we have tried to analyze it. No one can analyze 100% correct about the movement of bitcoin because, besides that, the current price of bitcoin has been influenced by global situations that we may not know. But the people who support bitcoin will not lose faith in bitcoin, and they will instead take the opportunity to buy more bitcoins. We're bound to see bitcoin take another big hit, and those bullish days will come again, so we'll have to be patient for a while.

[tabas]

It's okay to invest in other investments if the investor knows and understands what with it ahead from those investments. If he's from the stock market and then suddenly reverted his attention to bitcoin and started investing, I doubt it that he'll leave the stock market. But what he'll likely do is to maximize his capacity, resources and knowledge in investing in both areas because he understands pretty well the other one and starts to know more with the other one. However, we're all agreeing here that in summary, bitcoin's the best and is the king of this market and soon most assets will look after it.

There are investments who are ahead in terms of profit, I mean they can increase faster but the only problem is that they are only short lived. Investors must be careful on that kind of coins. if they don't know its mechanics or how to play its game, it would be better if they will stay away with it and stick with safer coins instead.

It's true that there are other investments that might perform better than bitcoin but they're not that guaranteed to stay for long. I've seen a lot of it and many have debated about how bitcoin underperformed as an investment but look where they are right now. Most of those projects where people have invested and said that they've made better money on it than bitcoin, they're nowhere to be found while bitcoin is staying at its past ATH as the low as of the moment.

If someone is from stocks then I think there is only a less chance that they will get involved here in btc but if they do then I do not think they will leave stocks but if someone starts with crypto, they will surely stick on here because imo it was easier and more profitable. I know it's only risky a little bit but it can be handled as long as we learn the basics.

I know people influencers and friends of friends that are into stocks but they can't ignore the profitability of having bitcoin. But as you've said, it's less chance but for them it's like they're not betting all in on bitcoin unlike us who have been into this game for years.

[pooya87]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

[bitgolden]

It's true that there are other investments that might perform better than bitcoin but they're not that guaranteed to stay for long. I've seen a lot of it and many have debated about how bitcoin underperformed as an investment but look where they are right now. Most of those projects where people have invested and said that they've made better money on it than bitcoin, they're nowhere to be found while bitcoin is staying at its past ATH as the low as of the moment.

If we are talking about just crypto world, the ones that could end up doing better than bitcoin for a short period of time are just products of a hype and that is never something that could be sustainable. Like there was a period when Shiba did better than bitcoin as well but that didn't really changed the fact that it would be standing there for long, and we have seen the crash it had.

So long story short I agree that any coin you see that does better than bitcoin for a while, will eventually do worse than bitcoin during crash as well. It is just a bull period situation where during bull period bitcoin goes to only a level and stays there whereas low cap stuff could grow bigger for smaller amount of investors.

[tabas]

It's true that there are other investments that might perform better than bitcoin but they're not that guaranteed to stay for long. I've seen a lot of it and many have debated about how bitcoin underperformed as an investment but look where they are right now. Most of those projects where people have invested and said that they've made better money on it than bitcoin, they're nowhere to be found while bitcoin is staying at its past ATH as the low as of the moment.

If we are talking about just crypto world, the ones that could end up doing better than bitcoin for a short period of time are just products of a hype and that is never something that could be sustainable. Like there was a period when Shiba did better than bitcoin as well but that didn't really changed the fact that it would be standing there for long, and we have seen the crash it had.

So long story short I agree that any coin you see that does better than bitcoin for a while, will eventually do worse than bitcoin during crash as well. It is just a bull period situation where during bull period bitcoin goes to only a level and stays there whereas low cap stuff could grow bigger for smaller amount of investors.

They can gain that much in short period of time, maybe a day or two, or a week or a month. But that won't depict them as something better than bitcoin. It's a fact that there were better performers than bitcoin in the past but it's really not that long and look where they're right now. All of them are being stomped by bitcoin's dominance and even if the market go side ways, bitcoin is staying and showing them as still the best of them all.

[afbitcoins]

Thanks for all the comments, I didn't see too much in the way of disagreement that we are around the low of the bitcoin cycle so far. It would be an interesting debate though if there are those who disagree.

On this long timescale I can't rule out another drop in price, I am not saying we have seen the low (although it is possible and maybe even likely)  however I still maintain this will be the region where the bottom is forming in this cycle, even if there is another leg down.  

There comes a point where the weak hands have all capitulated and strong hands more reluctant to sell. The collapse of FTX and all that may have been a way to flush out many of the remaining weak hands. (As I've seen in previous cycles with the FBI seizure of Silk Road) for example,.

Thought I'd share another chart showing some evidence things may start to turn bullish. This is a 1 day chart



Please note i nearly always use Heikin Ashi style candles and price on a log scale, as in this chart here.

What I am drawing attention to is a bullish divergence where even though the price is making lower lows. The RSI Relative Strength indicator is not. This can indicate that the bearish trend reverse is on the horizon.

What do you guys think? are there more bearish things I'm missing? Or bottom is forming here ready for new bull to start?

[fzkto]

Thanks for all the comments, I didn't see too much in the way of disagreement that we are around the low of the bitcoin cycle so far. It would be an interesting debate though if there are those who disagree.

On this long timescale I can't rule out another drop in price, I am not saying we have seen the low (although it is possible and maybe even likely)  however I still maintain this will be the region where the bottom is forming in this cycle, even if there is another leg down.  

There comes a point where the weak hands have all capitulated and strong hands more reluctant to sell. The collapse of FTX and all that may have been a way to flush out many of the remaining weak hands. (As I've seen in previous cycles with the FBI seizure of Silk Road) for example,.

Thought I'd share another chart showing some evidence things may start to turn bullish. This is a 1 day chart



Please note i nearly always use Heikin Ashi style candles and price on a log scale, as in this chart here.

What I am drawing attention to is a bullish divergence where even though the price is making lower lows. The RSI Relative Strength indicator is not. This can indicate that the bearish trend reverse is on the horizon.

What do you guys think? are there more bearish things I'm missing? Or bottom is forming here ready for new bull to start?

I don't like the amount of negativity within the cryptocurrency market. The S&P and NASDAQ seem to have bounced back nicely, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are breaking new bottoms. Had it not been for FTX, there probably would have been a bounce as well. Maybe it will happen with a delay when things settle down. As for your chart, it reminds me of May-July 2021 before bitcoin went to new highs.

[ajiz138]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

People who say "unachievable" are pessimists and I doubt they know bitcoin comprehensively or maybe they know nothing about bitcoin at all.
When it comes to the market, we won't see prices be on top forever, nor will we see prices be on the bottom forever. There are times when it goes up and gives profits, there are times when it goes down and gives us the opportunity to add assets to our portfolio.

But the problem is how people overreact to the market, when in fact, if they were a little bit patient they would also see the chart going up again.

[buwaytress]

I don't like the amount of negativity within the cryptocurrency market. The S&P and NASDAQ seem to have bounced back nicely, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are breaking new bottoms. Had it not been for FTX, there probably would have been a bounce as well. Maybe it will happen with a delay when things settle down. As for your chart, it reminds me of May-July 2021 before bitcoin went to new highs.

I'm probably guilty of some of that negativity, but I have to insist it's only for the short term, and only with due respect to cycles -- we're undoubtedly in a downturn. The problem now is no mitigating circumstance. Just industry-specific problems, FTX and others that are obvious, but I feel like there will be more, funds themselves are saying they expect surprises around the corners once liabilities are made known.

So I can't see us turning round the corner just yet.

Not saying there isn't a corner, and light at the end of that.

[STT]

gold, and silver are three of the better investment

I dont consider commodities as investment without any yield there is no deployment of capital in a working business or a return on revenue from that involvement.   Buying commodities is usually speculation and it has a cost to it usually with some decay factor, its an old trade done for centuries as farmers sell their crops ahead of harvest and other ideas to raise cash.    Its a natural thing to trade but I separate speculation from investment, the reason gold is not higher is this lack of yield I think and probably it will adjust for inflation but only over many years maybe a decade.
   BTC is far more liquid but also imo a commodity, global security commodity perhaps but there is no natural yield on that so thas why I come to that conclusion, and it also matches the volatility we see as holding is less favored then other investments.   I only state this so we can better understand the nature of what we trade and these cycles or season to BTC price action.

[afbitcoins]

gold, and silver are three of the better investment

I dont consider commodities as investment without any yield there is no deployment of capital in a working business or a return on revenue from that involvement.   Buying commodities is usually speculation and it has a cost to it usually with some decay factor, its an old trade done for centuries as farmers sell their crops ahead of harvest and other ideas to raise cash.    Its a natural thing to trade but I separate speculation from investment, the reason gold is not higher is this lack of yield I think and probably it will adjust for inflation but only over many years maybe a decade.
   BTC is far more liquid but also imo a commodity, global security commodity perhaps but there is no natural yield on that so thas why I come to that conclusion, and it also matches the volatility we see as holding is less favored then other investments.   I only state this so we can better understand the nature of what we trade and these cycles or season to BTC price action.

You sound like a devotee of Warren Buffet.  I view gold as money which might not really be a commodity, I don't know, maybe it depends who makes the definitions. Buying gold may not be investing. Gold is gold. Buying gold is like saving or protecting your wealth. This would all be good except the banksters long ago figured out how to manipulate the gold market via derivatives. This era may be coming to an end however, (or may not.. but i can dream). It seems the BRICS countries may be keen on moving away from fiat control by the west from things i hear about.  I always viewed bitcoin in a similar way to gold except there were no derivative markets and the banksters didn't yet own the market. I think this is still largely true (there are some bitcoin ETFs and futures markets now). For me physical gold, physical silver and bitcoin (holding your own private keys) are about stating your sovereignty. Taking your wealth outside the system and protecting it. In this era of global monetary 'easing' or printing you may well do better than just protecting wealth.  

[savetheFORUM]

People who say "unachievable" are pessimists and I doubt they know bitcoin comprehensively or maybe they know nothing about bitcoin at all.
When it comes to the market, we won't see prices be on top forever, nor will we see prices be on the bottom forever. There are times when it goes up and gives profits, there are times when it goes down and gives us the opportunity to add assets to our portfolio.

But the problem is how people overreact to the market, when in fact, if they were a little bit patient they would also see the chart going up again.

There are forum veterans who says that $100k for btc is not achievable this year. I guess that one is a valid claim right? Because, we are ending the year and prices as well as the economy are still very down. We can also add the negative news in cryptos happening around. This market is composed of different cryptos. If that crypto has no fundamentals then it will not be forever at the top but it will only be on the bottom forever.

For those cryptos which have a fundamental, it's only normal for them to go up and down. That is because people are selling at the top and then buying at the bottom. Just ignore those people who are OA and impatient. We can't get anything but stress if you will debate on them.

[Baofeng]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

[lizarder]

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Does the link between the world economic recovery have the right correlation with the recovery of bitcoin, what I know is that the achievement of ATH in 2021 is also the condition of the world economy that is experiencing massive inflation and recession, because at that time we were faced with the COVID-19 disaster.

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

The process of sustaining the COVID-19 disaster has gradually recovered, the world economy is entering the recovery phase, although not yet fully back to normal. Investors were again shocked by the case that befell FTX, then there was turmoil again in the bear market this time. Most observers have started to reconnect the bitcoin correction process with the case that happened to FTX.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

There is some truth to hitting $100k in that year, according to the four-year cycle scheme, or it could be that reaching that number could occur earlier in the year backwards before closer to 2025, as bitcoin's cycle has run in territory close to the next ATH and corresponds with the current scenario.

[darewaller]

We are bang on the low. Forget stock market correlation. Forget alt coins. Forget stocks and shares.

Buy bitcoin (and gold and silver)

Hold on tight

Yeah, I am also having thoughts like we may not get chances to buy bitcoins lower than $20k levels if we miss the current opportunities also the current prices may not last for long as we know bitcoin market may enter into bullish to sideways movement in the new year after year long bearish mode. So, I agree that we are about to see bullish markets and current market scenarios may become history.

Going by bitcoin cycle is highly recommended way to crack easy profits or to catch possible bottom prices of bitcoin markets. I am not sure how many of us going to make use of current market scenarios but I do keep suggesting this community to buy regularly for not missing out any good dips.

[franky1]

Thought I'd share another chart showing some evidence things may start to turn bullish. This is a 1 day chart

someone showing a chart. where they just draw a line.. is not evidence

you have to use real world metrics to have evidence. not a simple MSpaint doodle line

the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month*ⁱ period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet

calculate the 6mon-2year*ⁱ mining cost. where they have 6mon-2year*ⁱ contracts on electric so are mining constantly for that length. meaning averaging out the hashrate chart by that length too to get the average cost of low cost mining.. this also means calculate the hardware costs of current gen EFFICIENT asic needed to perform network hashrate. where you set them at a 2 year run-til-dead lifecycle

then plot out the costs per period and then you will see a 'step up' of a "bottom" that sits below the market.

yep use data outside the market. using stats found in real world data and cost. .. not just a silly mspaint line drawn on a chart

example math
if an asic was $4k for 140exa 3kwh
if network was 220exa year average(earlier in year)
=1,571,428.571 asics
     =$6,285,714,286 2 year hardware life cost
         =$1,571,428,571 6 month* hardware cost

if electric is base $0.04/kw =$0.12/asic per hour
=$188,571.4286 per hour electric
    =$823,680,000 per 6 month*

coins per block=6.25=164062.5 per 6 month*

=$1,571,428,571+$823,680,000 cost
/164062.5 coins = $14,598.76 cost per coin**
...
emphasis and repeating:
"the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet"

no one on planet wants to sell below the lowest REAL COST of real world bills on the planet

the public speculative market then has a price above this line. which is speculative due to peoples higher costs and sentiments of their desires(the premium above the value)

* efficient miners do not play to whims of daily hashrate or price changes. they have contracts of 6 months+ so mine constantly.
**miners look at their contract length cost. and the coins acquired in same time scale then calculate individual coin cost from that
ⁱ you can also do it the micro level of just one asic and its daily burn cost and its daily reward slice of sat amount and multiply it to a btc. which again also comes to a near on $15k efficient mining cost

[fullhdpixel]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

I think the chance is only slim because those dates you listed are so far. The economy must recover as soon as possible so that people won't struggle anymore. It's okay if the cryptos recovery is delayed. It wasn't our priority anyway but for those who do then, that was already their problem.

Many times we have been told that investments are only be treated as a kind of sideline or side hustle same with trading especially if that is about crypto because there are less regulations here and the value of cryptos are also highly volatile. Solid investors didn't leave the market and if there is the best time then it must be now when there is still a bear and not when everything is pumping.

[KingsDen]

This can't be going on and on without end. We all know how Bitcoin goes bearish and bullish and bearish again and bullish again etc. What we are going through right now can be justified. This bear season is brought about by macroeconomic factors and then shit happened with FTX and several other crypto platforms. Many have probably felt it that there will be more room to fall for Bitcoin and they sold. But this doesn't mean that people are losing trust in Bitcoin. So this is just temporary. There are bullish days ahead.

It is understandable that bitcoin is cyclical in nature and in the initial stages of Bitcoin this cyclical nature of Bitcoin was studied and followed up strictly such that the users of Bitcoin will know when each cycle will end and when next cycle will start. Peaple were not losing much money because of Bitcoin. But at a time in the history of Bitcoin when many adoption started coming into the systen and institutional traders entered into Bitcoin the cyclical nature of Bitcoin was altered such that some strong fundamentals and manipulations will alter a given circle, thereby giving a false cycle. This largely threw confusion in the Bitcoin industry and cryptocurrency that is why bitcoin investment turned to be as risky as it is now.