Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum

[EdenHazard]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

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[wxa7115]

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

Some investors may even think that 100k for the next bull run is kind of low, but taking into account that the previous bull run was not as strong as the ones we saw before, it makes sense that investors are more cautious now and prefer to make more conservative predictions.

However it is entirely possible we have not reached the bottom yet as we never know if we could face more disasters like luna or FTX, or if another unexpected event happened and the world economy faced difficulties once again.

[TravelMug]

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

Some investors may even think that 100k for the next bull run is kind of low, but taking into account that the previous bull run was not as strong as the ones we saw before, it makes sense that investors are more cautious now and prefer to make more conservative predictions.

However it is entirely possible we have not reached the bottom yet as we never know if we could face more disasters like luna or FTX, or if another unexpected event happened and the world economy faced difficulties once again.

Yeah, that could be the base price for the next bull run, we all know that this is the target last bull run, but we just run out of steam. And so the next time, and as big as the previous runs, we could hit $100k.

As for the bottom, I do agree, still going to be very bearish next year and it's possible that we haven't seen the bottom. It's kinda scary, but we have to accept that and prepare ourselves for next year possible worst scenario.

[Stedsm]

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

[bitgolden]

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

I do not agree that it could be 10k, that is way too low and there is absolutely nothing realistic about the current bottom as well, it looks like it's already shaky grounds and will probably go higher, which means that lower is even more unlikely. Not many people could see this about bitcoin but it is not naturally growing lower, it is something that makes money only when it goes up, and shorting it is the only way to make money when it goes down, which is limited.

This means that people are aiming at making it go higher if they can, sometimes they can't but that's the goal of more people than keeping it low and that is why it naturally tends to grow bigger overtime, maybe few years but it always reaches higher.

[Yaunfitda]

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

I do not agree that it could be 10k, that is way too low and there is absolutely nothing realistic about the current bottom as well, it looks like it's already shaky grounds and will probably go higher, which means that lower is even more unlikely. Not many people could see this about bitcoin but it is not naturally growing lower, it is something that makes money only when it goes up, and shorting it is the only way to make money when it goes down, which is limited.

This means that people are aiming at making it go higher if they can, sometimes they can't but that's the goal of more people than keeping it low and that is why it naturally tends to grow bigger overtime, maybe few years but it always reaches higher.

That's pure speculation at this point, probably the legdown could be $13k, $10k? it's going to be the final capitulation if we eventually reach that price.

Nevertheless, it's hard to predict where the price will be $15k is already low for this bear market, but who can forget $3,200 around the initial scare during March 2020 that put the market to it's knees? So who knows, maybe history will repeat itself again and see the market going down hard this bear market.

But in exchange, the market will thrive in the next bull run, $100k could be just the tip and it could go very high for a next ATH.

[peter0425]

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

it is mostly happen , that in the so near end of the year? bitcoin price falling and even bad for that days like what I've seen for how many times now so what is the difference from this year and the previous?
and there is also no Hopes for 2023 so expect this long term and there are no soon big recoveries from the whole market .

[Davian144]

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I disagree a bit for the bottom line at $10K, because that doesn't have to happen for Bitcoin to see a higher rise to $100K with a target date of 2024. Bitcoin can still increase without going down to the bottom and also without having to make all people have become very frantic in holding Bitcoins. Because when everyone is panicking about holding Bitcoin, it will only slow down the price increase in the market for Bitcoin. So for a large increase, Bitcoin can still increase from its current price without dropping to $10K.

[GeorgeJohn]

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

it is mostly happen , that in the so near end of the year? bitcoin price falling and even bad for that days like what I've seen for how many times now so what is the difference from this year and the previous?
and there is also no Hopes for 2023 so expect this long term and there are no soon big recoveries from the whole market .

Bitcoin recovering is something that will come unexpectedly, so i believe that the price of Bitcoin going up and down can come just a day, so i believe that Bitcoin price recover in this 2023, let our prayers should investors should come in the cryptocurrency sphere 2023, but i know that they will different in cryptocurrency market in 2023 than 2022 that's remaining few days.

[Poker Player]

With the OP I agree on the message of buying Bitcoin for what it is, as an asset it is much better than altcoins, or the stock market, although I believe in diversification.

Whether this is the minimum or not, neither he nor anyone else knows. We have seen too many times already extremely detailed analysis, even very suffisticated theories, that failed miserably.

Yeah, that could be the base price for the next bull run, we all know that this is the target last bull run, but we just run out of steam. And so the next time, and as big as the previous runs, we could hit $100k.

To me, it looks like it's going to cost over $100k next cycle. The normal thing is that after the next halving it will clearly go above it, but I think it's going to take a lot of tries because of the psychological factor and the sell orders that are going to be placed around that figure. Under normal conditions the price could even go above $200k next cycle, but after what we've seen in this one, it's not so clear.

[STT]

Time is a correction as well as price, if anything I think the time element is more important then the price objective people might have.   The dollar price is not a fixed worth, every year the dollar itself has varied and usually on average there is value lost from dollar worth and costs of basic goods rise.    So its quite clear even if the price was steady the value would be altering and correcting over time.
  The cycle peak and low will take time to turn over, usually its when all have lost patience it starts over.   Im going to think of it as something like a camshaft or engine cyclinder cycle, lots of variables but the exhaust vs combustion stage is what I find comparable to how we process price over time.

[inthelongrun]

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

[salad daging]

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

That is a very significant growth if the next cycle is $200k but we always look at past history where bitcoin has always been a new record every cycle will in a few years we will see that price? Certainly expect something bigger for us to see regarding the price of bitcoin in the future.
The market cap will be bigger, it may even surpass the worldwide stock market with the highest capitalist, but I think bitcoin needs a strong run to reach the price of $200k while it's still a long way to go new records will surely be made again.
We already know that several countries have adopted bitcoin, it will gradually become a legal currency due to adoption.

[MoonOfLife]

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

I just hope bitcoin can hit $100k by 2025, $200k is a pretty high target but for bitcoin anything is possible. There's still plenty of room to get there, as our economy also recovered in 2025 and started a new phase of growth, so a super cycle is very likely. The current bitcoin capitalization is about 300 billion, so to reach the market capitalization of 4 trillion, bitcoin only needs to increase 12-15 times.

[pooya87]

The market cap will be bigger, it may even surpass the worldwide stock market with the highest capitalist, but I think bitcoin needs a strong run to reach the price of $200k while it's still a long way to go new records will surely be made again.

At some point we have to seriously stop using market capitalization to talk about bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency for that matter). Bitcoin is not a company or a stock in the stock market to have market cap. It is a currency and it has to be compared with currencies like a currency. Something like money supply is more suitable to use instead. You have to consider that bitcoin is competing with all fiat currencies in the world: dollar, euro, ruble, yuan, yen, pound,... Suddenly $200k total doesn't look like much, does it?

[kamvreto]

~snip~In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

there will be a lot of adoptions if indeed the price of bitcoin will reach $ 200k in 2025. when the price of bitcoin reaches the expected new ATh of $ 100k, many will start to look at bitcoin again and adoption will be more intensive. Developing countries will start doing research on bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies, or even create their own cryptocurrencies but remain bitcoin-centric. I don't expect more, I just want bitcoin to return to the previous ATH and then reach a new ATH in 4th halving cycle.

[Baofeng]

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

Yes, I think we all agree to that.

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

Doesn't matter if we hit $10k as the final capitulation in this bear market. This could be the worst scenario. But if it will catapult to $100k minimum or $200k maximum then I will  take it this bear market, continue to accumulate and wait for the next bull run. It might not sit with the majority in the beginning, but once they realized what had happen, then probably they will agree too that $10k is necessary.

[Emitdama]

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

$200k is not easy but it needs a lot of money so yeah. Once BTC reached it, it can now bypass other valuable stocks and other investment assets. Not only that but people will now value their BTC more. They will now hardly spend it and they will only stack more coins in their bags because they already have an idea that BTC has a lot of potential.

I do not think the growth of the stocks can rise because of that but it will decrease more actually because many stocks investors will be attracted to BTC. They think investing in stocks is a waste of time because they can only earn less after hodling it for a very long time but if only they do that in BTC, they can earn much more.

[justdimin]

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

It would be pretty difficult but it could happen. What we need to remember is that when bitcoin goes up that much, usually that means we are going to see stocks go up as well. Like Apple is worth 3+ trillion and so forth type of deal.

This means if bitcoin reaches 200k, it would be possible to be the most valuable thing and more valuable than all companies, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible for apple to be higher as well, that could happen too if the stock market goes up. However, as long as we are near the top that doesn't matter, it is important to keep bitcoin in the top 10 and as long as we can do that it's going to be fine.

[STT]

No price will move in isolation, we already acknowledge inflation is a common debasement of price accuracy.   Part of any BTC gain is this loss by other currencies, at some points in the cycle BTC makes far more sense to hold then Dollar or some other very risky currency even while BTC can go down it sometime on average realize quite reliable gains.   Long term we all know BTC has been far more able then almost anyone predicted.
  BTC at any six figures number will only be in a world that has changed and each cycle of BTC it doesnt seem able to go back fully because of this loss in value for other currencies.   My take on the last five years is currency lost half its value (apparent or not they cannot reverse back so it is lost), the central banks threaten to raise the cost of money but it would drive the fiscal budget to ruin if debt was properly serviced with rates above inflation, that doesnt happen what happens is constant prices rising including the use of BTC.