American EVs reduced gasoline consumption by just 0.54% in 2021

[Hydrogen]

The data is in a new report on EV use from Argonne National Lab.

Electric vehicles have never been more popular. Just about every automaker is in the midst of an electrification effort, spurred on by impending government regulations around the world aimed at reducing our dependency on fossil fuels. But is the movement having an effect? Here in the US, plug-in vehicles are selling better than ever, despite supply chain shortages and frequent hefty dealership markups.

According to Argonne National Lab, between 2010 and the end of 2021, the US had bought more than 2.1 million plug-in vehicles, including 1.3 million battery EVs. That sounds like a very impressive number, but bear in mind that's out of a total national vehicle pool of nearly 276 million cars and trucks. Argonne estimates that despite all these plug-ins, national gasoline consumption was reduced by just 0.54 percent in 2021.

In total, Argonne calculates that US plug-in vehicles have driven nearly 70 billion miles since 2010, consuming 22 TWh of energy in the process. That's displaced the use of more than 2.5 billion gallons of gasoline and 19 million tons of greenhouse gases, Argonne reports, although for context, the US consumed about 369 million gallons of gasoline a day in 2021. For 2021 specifically, plug-in vehicles saved about 690 million gallons of gasoline—about two days of consumption—and reduced CO2 emissions by 5.4 million metric tons, consuming 6.1 TWh in the process.

The biggest growth in plug-in sales occurred in 2021, more than doubling from the previous year from 308,000 vehicles to 634,000. That's probably not too surprising, given how many new EVs reached the market last year. In fact, BEV sales increased 92 percent to 457,000 vehicles, with plug-in hybrid EV sales increasing by 150 percent to 175,000.

Argonne assumed that plug-in drivers behave much like their gasoline-powered counterparts but applied a utility factor to PHEVs based on battery size and a mileage adjustment factor based on EPA-estimated range for BEVs, with the baseline being an internal combustion engine vehicle driving 13,500 miles (21,727 km), with a mix of 57 percent highway driving and 43 percent city driving. Proportional reductions in annual mileage due to COVID-19 were applied for 2020 and 2021 as well.

Given that plug-in vehicles represent almost 1 percent of all light vehicles on the road in the US, it's disappointing that the reduction in gasoline usage was just more than half a percent.

However, Argonne provides evidence against naysayers who think EV adoption will crash the electrical grid—in 2021, charging EVs accounted for only 0.15 percent of all US electricity consumption. Interestingly, Argonne found that while BEV efficiency has decreased marginally since 2018, PHEV electrical range efficiency actually dropped dramatically between 2019 and 2021, which Argonne blames on the increasing size and weight of electrified SUVs.

This report is not an argument against people buying EVs, of course; any gas saving is an improvement on turning that gasoline into atmospheric pollution that worsens climate change. But it should be clear now that EVs on their own are not a panacea to our transport-related climate problems, and the future will require many more people to walk, cycle, or take the bus to get to where they're going.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/11/american-evs-reduced-gasoline-consumption-by-just-0-54-in-2021/

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The following summarizes most of the article:

According to Argonne National Lab, between 2010 and the end of 2021, the US had bought more than 2.1 million plug-in vehicles, including 1.3 million battery EVs. That sounds like a very impressive number, but bear in mind that's out of a total national vehicle pool of nearly 276 million cars and trucks. Argonne estimates that despite all these plug-ins, national gasoline consumption was reduced by just 0.54 percent in 2021.

However, Argonne provides evidence against naysayers who think EV adoption will crash the electrical grid—in 2021, charging EVs accounted for only 0.15 percent of all US electricity consumption.

The following could help to put things into perspective:

Tesla Inc.’s most recent quarterly vehicle production volume came to 365,900 units. Tesla's production level in the third quarter of 2022 increased by just over 41.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, and grew by approximately 53.9 percent year-on-year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-production/

It seems that at current production levels, tesla would produce around 3.6 million EVs in 10 years. It would take decades for them to replace a significant number of fossil fuel burning vehicles on the road, without a significant increase in production.

Given recent targets for replacing fossil fuels in global economies, it would be interesting to see how targets were calculated.

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[franky1]

targets are set not due to what you think..

quick history
in the 1980's they realised fossil fuel reserves would deplete by 2050(no coincidence to climate deadline)

this triggered things like the gulf wars and many incidents of wanting to find new sources or take sources from others to stem the tide as long as possible

here is the thing though.
there will always bee a need for oil and gas after 2050 even if they took all normal utility away from the retail.consumer market.

and so they put a stop of "consumer waste" utility 20 years before so that the remaining 20years supply can extend for more then 100 years beyond the 2050 ultimate deadline

[el kaka22]

I guess it is clear that we need even more, but you can't just destroy all the other car factories and turn them into EV over a day, we have reached this level in 10 years, and in another 10 years it will exponentially grow, and in another 10 years maybe it will be the biggest one.

I am not expecting it to be 51%+ in 5-10 years, but in 20-25 years that is a reality. It was an important step, because world is on fire right now and climate change is causing all kinds of trouble, which means every bit helps and even at %0.54 that is a huge help with 22 TWh, and we should keep that growing as much as possible and that will be great for all of us.

[Flexystar]

That clearly suggests us that we are not producing the EV's at faster rates and neither there is good adoption of the same.

If you checkout the data then we only have around 6-7 million Electric Vehicles registered in the USA. If this data is compared with the conventional cars then it will blow your mind. The conventional cars that were registered by the year 2021 are around 289 million cars.

I mean that is sort of ratio which tells us why gasoline consumption is reduced by only 0.54% The article does not take into consideration the actual figures such EV vs Conventional car ratio.

Following is the data associated with conventional cars that were registered by the end of different years within America. That is obvious number considering the fact that EV's are brand new in the market and are not trend setter as of yet!


Source

However, if you checkout the number of Electric Vehicles that were sold in USA then they are literally in thousands and not in millions if checked brand wise.

With the current speed of production and also to achieve higher goals like selling more than 10 million EV's then they need to have more than 9 million EV charging ports spread across the country. This goal can be achieved by 2030 which is still far from the sunrise.

Though following data is old, then also there is not much hike in the sales of EV's which could be considered as trend setter so as to show us remarkable numbers in reduction of the gasoline consumption.

With the expected boom of the Electric Vehicles market, various measures need to be set up. For instance, in order to support the 18.7 million EV estimate in 2030, automakers must install about 9.6 million charge ports at workplaces, homes, and public places. This is a major investment in terms of EV charging infrastructure.

I dont think we should even expect to see reduction in the Gasoline Consumption with such tiny number of EV's running around the country as compared to the Conventional Cars.

[hyudien]

What America is doing is reducing its dependence on gasoline, which portion cannot last for a long time. Because America has observed that gasoline supplies are starting to run low, supplies from countries that own oil are also decreasing due to internal conflicts that have damaged America's harmony with other major gasoline-producing countries such as Iraq, Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. They also need long-term supply to be able to control the movement of petroleum in the future. This innovation makes us even more confident with the alternatives that have been provided for the next few years.

This is not a negative for future transportation growth because evidence of such savings can motivate other countries to try new things. In several countries, they are starting to experiment because they also realize that the supplies of petroleum they have are also running low.

[naira]

That clearly suggests us that we are not producing the EV's at faster rates and neither there is good adoption of the same.

If you checkout the data then we only have around 6-7 million Electric Vehicles registered in the USA. If this data is compared with the conventional cars then it will blow your mind. The conventional cars that were registered by the year 2021 are around 289 million cars.

I mean that is sort of ratio which tells us why gasoline consumption is reduced by only 0.54% The article does not take into consideration the actual figures such EV vs Conventional car ratio.

Following is the data associated with conventional cars that were registered by the end of different years within America. That is obvious number considering the fact that EV's are brand new in the market and are not trend setter as of yet!

You are right that the data ratios may not be completely balanced so fuel cost savings still cannot guarantee longevity. However, let's look 5 to 10 years into the future to have a much more efficient alternative, and we can see the results. Various innovations that have emerged do have a purpose for the environment. It's just that is it worth it when compared to the use of other conventional cars?

What America is doing is reducing its dependence on gasoline, which portion cannot last for a long time. Because America has observed that gasoline supplies are starting to run low, supplies from countries that own oil are also decreasing due to internal conflicts that have damaged America's harmony with other major gasoline-producing countries such as Iraq, Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. They also need long-term supply to be able to control the movement of petroleum in the future. This innovation makes us even more confident with the alternatives that have been provided for the next few years.

Trying to motivate other countries that have the same perspective as the US on energy consumption within a year and the results are quite promising. As I said above, one year's difference is still not enough to prove whether it is worth extending to all countries with not very high electricity supply. There are still areas that are not covered by the new type of car. In terms of price, it's definitely quite expensive.

[avikz]

We are still standing at a very nescent stage for EV market. We have very few global players in this market and Tesla is right now enjoying absolute monopoly. So the percentage that you see, is just the beginning!

So if you want to get rich in next few years, invest in some EV related stocks because this market is going to explode at some point of time. The percentage that you see now, are going to be higher in a very short period of time.

It's not easy to replace a century old system but EV market has started making its mark!

[adaseb]

You go to a shopping mall, how often do you see an EV? Almost never or you might see 1 tesla or 2. And this is compared to hundreds of cars. So this figure is not suprising. And most people never looked into an EV until last year when gas prices went thru the roof, before that people just kept driving their ICE vehicles.

The adoption is very slow. Takes a long time to make the batteries. Hence why so far EV didn't really solve nothing. In 10 years the figures will be different but now they just can't make them fast enough.

[Gyfts]

So it sounds like the folks that are purchasing EV's aren't the ones that are driving enough for it to make any dent in gasoline consumption which mean the pollution created by producing those EV's and charging them probably weren't worth it in the first place.

Folks tend to forget the amount of pollution associated with manufacturing EV batteries or even the energy required to charge them in the first place. All of it is fossil fuel based. Reduce gasoline consumption and the problem of carbon emissions doesn't magically go away.

[Hamphser]

So it sounds like the folks that are purchasing EV's aren't the ones that are driving enough for it to make any dent in gasoline consumption which mean the pollution created by producing those EV's and charging them probably weren't worth it in the first place.

Folks tend to forget the amount of pollution associated with manufacturing EV batteries or even the energy required to charge them in the first place. All of it is fossil fuel based. Reduce gasoline consumption and the problem of carbon emissions doesn't magically go away.

They are really just focusing on a single point of view on which they didnt really see up on huge scale or on general which they didnt realize on what are the things needed to make up these batteries or even

with that charging matter which do really still make out that use of fossil fuels on the first place which i do agree on what you had said.They are really just that covering or minding about
on smaller scale but not actually solving out the entire problem.

Its no surprise that these things doesnt really make out huge changes in numbers or into those intents that they are trying to solve out.
Somehow, this problem wont really be changed up nor can be resolved on a short time which it is really that somewhat anticipated that Fuel is still mainly
needed for most operations and it is really that connected on every industry and its existence is still relevant.

[DrBeer]

In order:
1. The American car market is not the most loyal to electric cars. There are still tastes and trends "with a gasoline aftertaste". The main consumer of electric cars is Europe, Asia. Asia also has its own, local and large-scale production of electric cars.
2. The demand for gasoline engines or gas technologies will remain. How in the 21st century we have left manual labor, horse-drawn carriage, and other technological and industrial atavisms of the past

[stompix]

Though following data is old, then also there is not much hike in the sales of EV's which could be considered as trend setter so as to show us remarkable numbers in reduction of the gasoline consumption.

Your data shows around 180k Teslas, 16k Chevy, and 12k Leafs, just the top sellers.
2021 has these numbers:
390,814 Teslas, with Hyundai 5, Ford Mustang Mach-E , Audi e-tron, or Kia EV6 making more than 10k sales, cars that weren't even there on your list in 2019.

Not much hike?
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-sales-and-sales-market-share-of-electric-cars-2010-2021
 

That clearly suggests us that we are not producing the EV's at faster rates and neither there is good adoption of the same.

Which part does "clearly" show this?

[darewaller]

They are really just focusing on a single point of view on which they didnt really see up on huge scale or on general which they didnt realize on what are the things needed to make up these batteries or even

with that charging matter which do really still make out that use of fossil fuels on the first place which i do agree on what you had said.They are really just that covering or minding about
on smaller scale but not actually solving out the entire problem.

Its no surprise that these things doesnt really make out huge changes in numbers or into those intents that they are trying to solve out.
Somehow, this problem wont really be changed up nor can be resolved on a short time which it is really that somewhat anticipated that Fuel is still mainly
needed for most operations and it is really that connected on every industry and its existence is still relevant.

The trick here is that if you have a car that runs on some sort of energy, doesn't matter what it is, are you providing that energy in a clean way or not. If you have electric car that runs on electric created by burning coal lets say, is that clean? Like my nation doesn't have that many EV.

Because, we do not have that much clean energy, like solar or wind, which means if you bought it, then the charging was done with some pollution creating method. Hence, it is not what you use, but how you fill it up that matters. Oil is still bad, gasoline that you use to fill up regular cars is still bad, just because EV is not enough, doesn't mean gas is fine, you still need to find an alternative.

[Findingnemo]

Even in my country most of the auto makers launched their EVs but the charging station infrastructure is not yet completed so the vehicle can't be used for longer distance and it isn't practical and reliable too with the current technology. Tesla is giving amazing numbers but they can't able to make all the cars required for their country people anyway they created an impact which forced almost all the common utility vehicle to launch their EVs so probably in 2030 we can see atleast 20 to 30% EVs on road.

[adaseb]

Another issue with ev is when their batteries can no longer hold charge or if they get damaged in any way, there is a huge repair bill and it’s not sustainable. Even with cars like the Chevy bolt which are cheaper.

For a model 3 the new battery is somewhere like $15K. And it’s needs to be new. Replacing one battery cell doesn’t always work. And most likely the battery prices will increase in the near future. MSRP was originally like $30k for model 3 and the battery is more than half the price.

[Hispo]

Another issue with ev is when their batteries can no longer hold charge or if they get damaged in any way, there is a huge repair bill and it’s not sustainable. Even with cars like the Chevy bolt which are cheaper.

For a model 3 the new battery is somewhere like $15K. And it’s needs to be new. Replacing one battery cell doesn’t always work. And most likely the battery prices will increase in the near future. MSRP was originally like $30k for model 3 and the battery is more than half the price.

Because of the prices of those spare batteries and other factors which have to do with the Lithium processing/availability, I have seen some speculation around the internet that in the near future, when EV start to replace gasoline vehicles by law, most of the people will have to opt for public or shared transportation, instead having personal vehicles, which I believe it makes sense to the environmental planning of many countries.

It is just speculation, tho.

[DrBeer]

Another issue with ev is when their batteries can no longer hold charge or if they get damaged in any way, there is a huge repair bill and it's not sustainable. Even with cars like the Chevy bolt which are cheaper.

For a model 3 the new battery is somewhere like $15K. And it's needs to be new. Replacing one battery cell doesn't always work. And most likely the battery prices will increase in the near future. MSRP was originally like $30k for model 3 and the battery is more than half the price.

Because of the prices of those spare batteries and other factors which have to do with the Lithium processing/availability, I have seen some speculation around the internet that in the near future, when EV start to replace gasoline vehicles by law, most of the people will have to opt for public or shared transportation, instead of having personal vehicles, which I believe it makes sense to the environmental planning of many countries.

It is just speculation, tho.

The time for lithium batteries is coming to an end... No, it will not be in 2023, but I think that by 2025-2027 the industrial production of lithium-based batteries will decrease, and the production of alternative batteries technologically close to supercapacitor technology will grow .
There are many reasons - the demand for lithium, its price, and processing technologies ... The industry (automotive in the first place) needs batteries that are easy to manufacture, do not depend on scarce resources, with a cheap production and processing cycle.

[Hispo]

Another issue with ev is when their batteries can no longer hold charge or if they get damaged in any way, there is a huge repair bill and it's not sustainable. Even with cars like the Chevy bolt which are cheaper.

For a model 3 the new battery is somewhere like $15K. And it's needs to be new. Replacing one battery cell doesn't always work. And most likely the battery prices will increase in the near future. MSRP was originally like $30k for model 3 and the battery is more than half the price.

Because of the prices of those spare batteries and other factors which have to do with the Lithium processing/availability, I have seen some speculation around the internet that in the near future, when EV start to replace gasoline vehicles by law, most of the people will have to opt for public or shared transportation, instead of having personal vehicles, which I believe it makes sense to the environmental planning of many countries.

It is just speculation, tho.

The time for lithium batteries is coming to an end... No, it will not be in 2023, but I think that by 2025-2027 the industrial production of lithium-based batteries will decrease, and the production of alternative batteries technologically close to supercapacitor technology will grow .
There are many reasons - the demand for lithium, its price, and processing technologies ... The industry (automotive in the first place) needs batteries that are easy to manufacture, do not depend on scarce resources, with a cheap production and processing cycle.

Well, as far as I know super capacitors also need production of minerals which are relatively rare on Earth crust.
Coltan (which is very relevant for the production of technology) is mostly concentrated in the Congo  and other few places while rare earths are readily found in China.

If the industry of electric vehicles in Europe/USA want to grow independent of foreign locations then those new generations of batteries should be high recyclable at the least.

[Argoo]

The main thing is that the process of switching to electric cars and increasing their power and efficiency has begun. After some time, when the quantity turns into quality, the states will first tighten the requirements for gasoline and diesel cars, and then completely ban their production and operation.
The fight against global climate change will take precedence over the corrupt interests of the gasoline corporations that have dictated their terms in this market for more than a century. This is a matter of human survival.

[n0ne]

The main thing is that the process of switching to electric cars and increasing their power and efficiency has begun. After some time, when the quantity turns into quality, the states will first tighten the requirements for gasoline and diesel cars, and then completely ban their production and operation.
The fight against global climate change will take precedence over the corrupt interests of the gasoline corporations that have dictated their terms in this market for more than a century. This is a matter of human survival.

This is a slow process and the same can't be achieved in a short time period. The switching process is happening all around the world. Another important reason behind the switching is the increased price. People who are able to afford an EV have decreased. In a third world country the price of EV is something high as that of a luxury car which the common man who want a car never think about. When the price starts decreasing the usage will increase.