December Has always Proved to Be a Good Month For Cryptocurrency industry

[coolcoinz]

Looking over the uncontextualized data, price has a good behaviour on only one out of the past four Decembers, being December 2020 structural the path to the subsequent 2021 ATH:

Neverthless, I get the feeling that looking over the past monthly aggregate data does not really point to future trends for a given month, and that we’re much more prone to sway, in price in terms, to the tune of the large fundamentals that occur, which are mostly unpredictable.

Even the data you've posted proves that we shouldn't relay on it with our predictions.

For instance, if you followed the chart between 2013 and 2018 you'd say that out of the last 5 Junes 4 were good, you'd buy in May thinking the pattern would continue and get a 14% loss. Then next year you'd probably think that last June was so bad you'll stay out of it for that month and you'd miss out on a 26% increase.
 
As for Decembers, there's a clear pattern. 2014  and 2018 were the first years after ATH and they were red. Out of the winters that did not come in less than 12 months after ATH only 2019 had a very small 5% drop. All other Decembers were green. This time our December right after ATH was in 2021, so we already had our red month. If we follow the pattern, there's a high probability this one will be green.

I feel like I should add for people who are too euphoric about the green and red months, the way the chart works that even if there's a 1% increase in the average price for the given month, it will display as green month. A 20% drop in one month followed by a 5% relief rally will show the current month as green, even though in the last 2 months we've lost 15% and are in the red.
Technically, you can have 11/12 green months in a year and still be at a 50% loss.

[LogitechMouse]

I know I am not pro or old here but I know little bit. I was saying that Bitcoin is just had always proven good start in December month and in first Quarter of New year and If history repeats than this will also be like God start of crypto Rally and I hope in this timeframe btc might go Upto 36k dollars before May crash.
We know that we cannot speculate Bitcoin price But I can say that as history repeats we can get chance and also a better judgement and it can be very risky.
That's Why Do your own research before putting money.

Hum you might be right but we cannot take any kind of risks that could be the dangerous for us. Now a days Btc in Bear market and anything could happen like Terra Luna crash and also FTX Collapse and I think in near future Ethereum Or BNB might Crash to take down whole Market and it will be disaster.

Like a Domino effect?
BNB might crash but Ethereum will not.

The whole crypto market is on a bear market and yes, anything might happen, but I don't think that Bitcoin and Ethereum will crash like what happened to FTX and Terra Luna because both of the projects are failed ones and the ones behind it are scammers and any projects that has scammers behind it will absolutely fail because they will scam investors.

$36K? You might be dreaming while posting this one isn't you OP? Your first post is a thread like this though I agree with you that December has always been good for crypto and right now, Bitcoin is at the $17,000 price. Overall, the sentiment of the investors is negative, and they are in an extreme fear right now to invest. You might be thinking of the "Christmas Effect", but with what's happening globally, I doubt that it will have a huge effect towards the price of Bitcoin. Maybe we might see Bitcoin at $20,000 at the highest.

[franky1]

ok i did a bit of maths

grabbing the chart data of 2011-2022 from blockchain.info

i then took each years low and high, and then done

(low + high) / 2

to get the average price per year

then i looked at the prices per month of each year and seen which months were below or above that years average

and the results of how many months were above average

J   F   M   A   M   J   J   A   S   O   N   D

3   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   2   4   7

[justdimin]

Looking over the uncontextualized data, price has a good behaviour on only one out of the past four Decembers, being December 2020 structural the path to the subsequent 2021 ATH:



Neverthless, I get the feeling that looking over the past monthly aggregate data does not really point to future trends for a given month, and that we’re much more prone to sway, in price in terms, to the tune of the large fundamentals that occur, which are mostly unpredictable.

I love this image, I love the fact that none of the months in general look like a heavy green month aside from maybe February and October. The reality that we can learn from this image is this, you could have one month of 172% or something, and then 6 months of 5-10% drops, and that should tell you how bitcoin goes up. Maybe for the next 12 months we are going to have 5% drop each month until last month where we have 400% increase?

We do not know if that will be the case but this image shows it's also not impossible. Bitcoin usually slowly drops more and more and more, and then one day goes up straight like an arrow, we need to be ready for that and if we are not, we will always be too late to it.

[buwaytress]

^^ Franky, every day's closing price summed then / 365 is more "acceptable" of average yearly price, no? But ain't nobody got time for that!

Hihi, I remember all these posts:
- October has been bad for Bitcoin only in two years, always positive in double digits, we're going to have a huge bull run
- November has been positive for Bitcoin 6 to 3, expect a bull run, the last ATH was in November
 - And now it's December time, we had an ATH at that time in December 5 years ago, certainly bullish
The way some cherry-pick both data and memories is quite entertaining.

Ha nice catch on newbie of the year, enter the nominations!

I remember circa the same time also festive periods were good for Bitcoin. Christmas shopping, and then Lunar New Year after that supposedly bringing out the happy Chinese... though it never made sense to me as you'd be selling Bitcoin to buy people presents more than anything.

The Hindu and Muslim calendar traders probably also going crazy for different lunar/sun cycles.

[The Cryptovator]

If I recall correctly, the previous bull run began in December. But that doesn't mean that every year will be the same. To be honest, I don't see any reasonable grounds to pump Bitcoin in December. So this December would be different from others. A couple of incidents have occurred, such as Luna and FTX, and there is no good news to pump the crypto market. We will most likely have to wait another couple of months before the cryptocurrency market recovers. Everything will be fine, just don't expect too much and be realistic.

[kryptqnick]

When I read the post, I thought about those tables with months and how the price changed in different years, so it's great that DdmrDdmr posted it, and December seems to be a 50-50 kind of month historically, so even if we rely on the past behaviour to predict future behaviour, it's wrong to assume that it will be a good month. I hope it will be, but there's no reason it has to be. So far, we're just one day in, and maybe the market isn't ready to change the tide yet. We should be morally prepared for whichever outcome comes next.

[Adbitco]

Actually to every beginning of December may have it right to turn Green whenever it gets to January there is always a challenge sometimes it could be pure dip and then from February to May there is always a market correction.
I think @DdmrDdmr fully narrated it all.
I believe this December would likely be a good one, since market hit back to $17,200 today being 01-12-2022 so there is every possibility it would be around $25k to $30k by ending of 31 December to 1st January 2023.

[franky1]

^^ Franky, every day's closing price summed then / 365 is more "acceptable" of average yearly price, no? But ain't nobody got time for that!

your way.. i had time
J   F   M   A   M   J   J   A   S   O   N   D

2   5   4   4   6   3   6   7   7   8   8   8

enjoy

[serjent05]

I also don't think December has always proved to be a good month for Bitcoin, as far as I know, the December performance depends on the current situation of the Bitcoin fundamental.  As we see in history, whenever there is good news lurking around the Dec. month will be in green but this year, I do not think that we can see a greener Dec because of the recent event and FUD that is roaming around the market.  We had huge fiascos and scandals in the previous months, and aside from Brazil accepting Bitcoin as a payment option, there is no other good news that can outweigh the effect of the recent FUDs and fiasco that shakes the Bitcoin market.

But in fairness, the 1st of Dec. shows a bit of recovery of Bitcoin price since Bitcoin goes up to $17k.  It is short live though because the price goes down again at sub $17k.

[coolcoinz]

Actually to every beginning of December may have it right to turn Green whenever it gets to January there is always a challenge sometimes it could be pure dip and then from February to May there is always a market correction.
I think @DdmrDdmr fully narrated it all.
I believe this December would likely be a good one, since market hit back to $17,200 today being 01-12-2022 so there is every possibility it would be around $25k to $30k by ending of 31 December to 1st January 2023.

To me going back to 17 is a bad sign because there was no real recovery after what happened in November which is a sign of weakness. To talk about a reversal you need volume and a price attacking higher points, not dragging on for weeks with no volume. If we went from 21 to 16k and then back to a somewhat stable level of 19k we would've called it a sign of strength. An insignificant level of 17k acting like a resistance is really bad for the short term.

I wouldn't expect anything big in December. Even if FED pivots in 2 weeks the best we can hope for is 19k again, which again is a bad sign if it stops there because it's still below the 2017 ATH.

[noormcs5]

I know I am not pro or old here but I know little bit. I was saying that Bitcoin is just had always proven good start in December month and in first Quarter of New year and If history repeats than this will also be like God start of crypto Rally and I hope in this timeframe btc might go Upto 36k dollars before May crash.
We know that we cannot speculate Bitcoin price But I can say that as history repeats we can get chance and also a better judgement and it can be very risky.
That's Why Do your own research before putting money.

It seems like December will be a good month for crypto as we have started seeing some positive momentum in bitcoin recently. Also, people are hoping that this time again CPI data will be favorable and hence bitcioin may rise more. However i do not see it going 36,000$ in this month of December. Maybe 25 - 26$ can be the realistic target for bitcoin in this month.

Also, you mentioned, "Before May crash"  Do you mean that bitcoin will crash in May 2023 or you are taking about the past May 2022 crash?

[KennyR]

I also don't think December has always proved to be a good month for Bitcoin, as far as I know, the December performance depends on the current situation of the Bitcoin fundamental.  As we see in history, whenever there is good news lurking around the Dec. month will be in green but this year, I do not think that we can see a greener Dec because of the recent event and FUD that is roaming around the market.  We had huge fiascos and scandals in the previous months, and aside from Brazil accepting Bitcoin as a payment option, there is no other good news that can outweigh the effect of the recent FUDs and fiasco that shakes the Bitcoin market.

But in fairness, the 1st of Dec. shows a bit of recovery of Bitcoin price since Bitcoin goes up to $17k.  It is short live though because the price goes down again at sub $17k.

The market follows the fundamental, if there is good news circulating around the market then everything will be green as the entire cryptocurrencies were following the trend of bitcoin. Over the years there is a myth, close to the days of Christmas the market will start rising and the same gets carried forward to the falling year. Lets see, anything similar to that happens this year. The growth that happened in the past in the same time period can't be expected to come again this year. Because, market situation during those days and the present have got lot of variation.

[AmoreJaz]

I also don't think December has always proved to be a good month for Bitcoin, as far as I know, the December performance depends on the current situation of the Bitcoin fundamental.  As we see in history, whenever there is good news lurking around the Dec. month will be in green but this year, I do not think that we can see a greener Dec because of the recent event and FUD that is roaming around the market.  We had huge fiascos and scandals in the previous months, and aside from Brazil accepting Bitcoin as a payment option, there is no other good news that can outweigh the effect of the recent FUDs and fiasco that shakes the Bitcoin market.

But in fairness, the 1st of Dec. shows a bit of recovery of Bitcoin price since Bitcoin goes up to $17k.  It is short live though because the price goes down again at sub $17k.

The market follows the fundamental, if there is good news circulating around the market then everything will be green as the entire cryptocurrencies were following the trend of bitcoin. Over the years there is a myth, close to the days of Christmas the market will start rising and the same gets carried forward to the falling year. Lets see, anything similar to that happens this year. The growth that happened in the past in the same time period can't be expected to come again this year. Because, market situation during those days and the present have got lot of variation.

and that we will see if such scenario will be observed in the coming days. but every year has their own news and events, so we can't expect something similar will happen. we have been in the downside trend owed to news such as the FTX failure, BlockFi's bankruptcy and other things. but if a good news will come, we may start seeing the market to go up again. just a matter of time. but we can't assure that this month, we will finally see such increase.

[famososMuertos]

I think that at any time with bitcoin you is ever you make a risky decision, it is an investment, then the starting point does not always have to coincide with special months, although the historical show it, but it should not necessarily be so...

[davis196]

I know I am not pro or old here but I know little bit. I was saying that Bitcoin is just had always proven good start in December month and in first Quarter of New year and If history repeats than this will also be like God start of crypto Rally and I hope in this timeframe btc might go Upto 36k dollars before May crash.
We know that we cannot speculate Bitcoin price But I can say that as history repeats we can get chance and also a better judgement and it can be very risky.
That's Why Do your own research before putting money.

The Bitcoin price won't hit 36K USD just because you want this to happen. The crypto winter is here to stay and the investors aren't very positive about an upcoming bull wave in the Bitcoin market. There's no force that could possibly create a FOMO phase right now.
Statistically some months are "good" and other months are "bad" for Bitcoin, but the market is extremely bearish right now and the FUD news are coming from everywhere. Do you really think that the "average Joe" is going to invest his money into Bitcoin, when he reads all those news about crypto bans, crypto price crashing, crypto companies going bankrupt and scamming their investors? I don't think so.

[franky1]

I hope in this timeframe btc might go Upto 36k dollars before May crash.

The Bitcoin price won't hit 36K USD just because you want this to happen.

those predictions are less about the markets and more about the users revealing their buy in and exit plans

most users have a 2x in mind to exit out and a date they want to exit by

its why.. when the price went to a $50k amount after the ATH and stuck around there for a bit. people buying at $50k wanted a $100k exit within a year

those buying at about $17.5k want a $36k exit

they are just trying to suggest their exit and hope someone will tell them "yes your exit number is possible in a small timeframe of when you want to leave by" just to ease their mind

[Trouvaille]

I know I am not pro or old here but I know little bit. I was saying that Bitcoin is just had always proven good start in December month and in first Quarter of New year and If history repeats than this will also be like God start of crypto Rally and I hope in this timeframe btc might go Upto 36k dollars before May crash.
We know that we cannot speculate Bitcoin price But I can say that as history repeats we can get chance and also a better judgement and it can be very risky.
That's Why Do your own research before putting money.

December isn't always a good month for cryptocurrencies, and while Bitcoin has started to see positive moves recently, I think it's still in a bear market.
The crypto market is unpredictable. The nature of volatility makes it possible for all changes to occur in a split second. Now we just need to wait patiently and believe that the bull market will come soon.

[franky1]

I know I am not pro or old here but I know little bit. I was saying that Bitcoin is just had always proven good start in December month and in first Quarter of New year and If history repeats than

December isn't always a good month for cryptocurrencies,

the thing about history is.. everyone can see it and react to it to "never happen again"

meaning if traders see a pattern that a high happens at a certain time.. eventually enough traders plan to hedge that by selling in that historic suggested time. which then ends up with the suggested time sees less highs that due to mass sells taking advantage of knowing the pattern.. thus breaking the pattern

a pattern is only a pattern until to many people use pattern recognition trade bots to trade against the pattern

[pooya87]

the thing about history is.. everyone can see it and react to it to "never happen again"

meaning if traders see a pattern that a high happens at a certain time.. eventually enough traders plan to hedge that by selling in that historic suggested time. which then ends up with the suggested time sees less highs that due to mass sells taking advantage of knowing the pattern.. thus breaking the pattern

a pattern is only a pattern until to many people use pattern recognition trade bots to trade against the pattern

You are forgetting the first step of this process where the increasing number of people believing in the pattern start buying bitcoin because they think price is going high and at the same time they are seeing the signs of it going up. Just like what happens every 4 years in the weeks leading to halving where a lot of people panic buy bitcoin!