Will The FED pivot?

[Edwardard]

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

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[OgNasty]

The fed always goes too far. I don’t expect this time will be any different. Even though rates have started to come down and home affordability has become the worst it’s been in my lifetime, I expect they will raise rates again. The language will probably be positive as they’ll signal increases may be done, but I believe they want to cause a recession. You have to remember the government’s overall goal is to inflict enough financial pain to get citizens on board with universal income. A soft landing doesn’t move towards that goal.

[CageMabok]

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

If the recession can get worse as Elon Musk said in his tweet, I don't think the increase in the price of Bitcoin will also happen so easily and may even go in place by not increasing to a higher price than now. Personally I hope that the FED will not raise their interest rates again by the end of this year because doing so will trigger the impact of a global recession which may be very large. Let's hope that nothing bad can happen after the report is published in the near future.

[Baofeng]

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

Really up to what the report maybe,

- if it sound good, then obviously all market will have like a good short term run.

- if the news is negative, probably we will see the price < $17k.

Last month's CPI report though seems to be positive if I'm not mistaken and so we have some short term bump in the price.

[adaseb]

They are not going to pivot. If there is a pivot it will be sometime in the summer. All that was discussed during the last FOMC minutes is they are slowing the pace of the hikes and not pivoting.

So far inflation is still high. PPI came in high last Friday. The hikes are working but it will take time. So far it helped a little. It doesn’t help that the job market is just way too strong. So we don’t have any reasons to pivot just yet.

[Smack That Ace]

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

If the recession can get worse as Elon Musk said in his tweet, I don't think the increase in the price of Bitcoin will also happen so easily and may even go in place by not increasing to a higher price than now. Personally I hope that the FED will not raise their interest rates again by the end of this year because doing so will trigger the impact of a global recession which may be very large. Let's hope that nothing bad can happen after the report is published in the near future.

It is impossible to expect the Fed to stop raising interest rates , inflation in the US is falling, but it is still very high, so it is inevitable that interest rate hikes will occur. But the question is whether they will go up sharply as usual or will they start lowering rates gradually, that's what we're talking about.

But in my opinion, the rate hike no longer has too much impact on the market, the November rate hike did not cause bitcoin to drop as sharply as before. While the rate hike has not negatively impacted the market, with the world economy negatively affected, it is hard to expect bitcoin to recover.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

I didn't know Elon is a world-class economist. I thought he is making cars and manipulating markets using his twitter account. Why you care about his opinion in this field?

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
Market expects +75 at 21.8% and +50 at 78.2%

0% for pivot this month. I guess its 0% chance for next 2-3 months.

Why you care about pivot at all?

[adaseb]

Many want a pivot for many reasons.

For example say you want to buy a home. Do you buy now or wait 6-12 months when homes can be cheaper or event rates can be lower.

For speculators they want the fed to pivot because all assets including cryptos will rally. It will mark the bottom of the cycle.

[buwaytress]

Elon's tweet seems to ignore that Fed has said it will raise rates, just that they will dampen the rate, though the months ahead will still see hikes. So it's not so much a question of if rates will rise, but for how long and how hard -- Fed seems to suggest it will relent, if inflation does.

Bitcoin's just below 17k, which surprised me, thought the suits would be against shorting when inflation should be slowing down.

~~ I believe they want to cause a recession. You have to remember the government’s overall goal is to inflict enough financial pain to get citizens on board with universal income. A soft landing doesn’t move towards that goal.

I had a suspicion of this as well, that they want to see a recession. The middle class especially, and not just in US, looking at my own spending. They're not exactly hurting enough by inflation. I'm cutting back on a lot of things, even watching the energy meter more than normal, but still able to maintain most of the family lifestyle. I think they need more people -- the middle class especially -- to really hurt.

Sadly, it's always the majority who will bear the brunt of that but a move towards universal income could be worth it (to me).

[Gozie51]

You have to remember the government’s overall goal is to inflict enough financial pain to get citizens on board with universal income. A soft landing doesn’t move towards that goal.

Some times I'm also forced to think this way when the government policy is always harsh on the people and they won't make things easy for the masses to benefit from but only to get increased income. The government concern more is how to increase there revenue and they make excuses for using it to finance government projects but we know that the amount that is embezzled is far greater than how much going into project. The outcome of the FED is to increase interest rate and that will cause more poverty.

[STT]

Even if the FED raises rates, its the pace at which they have raised which matters overall.   A raise of say quarter percent would be perceived as positive overall.   Stock markets but not all markets are future facing which means they anticipate mostly the beginning of the end to the rises rather absolutely requiring no further rise in rates.
   Add in that inflation itself is some adjustment to the cost of money, Ive no doubt that Dollar will continually lose value for this decade and the next.   A future cost to currency which is lower then the value now invested gives bias to stocks and performing assets.   However all of this is speculation, every shock turn in the road will upset the market but a foreseeable negative is not quite as bad.  I see some relief occurring in these next 12 months, it could start now; the emphasis being on assets which do perform.

[Captain Corporate]

I HIIIIGHLY doubt that. They probably already decided to up a notch, not a whole lot but a bit, and I am guessing that its going to just keeping going up for a while longer as well, like the next one too, just smaller and smaller measure. Until everything is back to normal with inflation, there is literally no reason for them to keep it lower, they should be increasing it more and more so that the more money goes back to banks the better. Eventually inflation will go down, and they will lower it, and people will use that to invest again. That is how it has been for a looong time, doubt that it would change anytime soon.

[Edwardard]

Guys there's an update from US, The CPI data just came in lower than expected!! (7.3% expected vs 7.1% actual)! Bullish for markets!
This means the Fed will definitely not raise interest rates by 75bps this time, the tightening policies are working out finally. This time maybe 50bps and soon to 25bps in the upcoming months to come?!
BTC will rock to 30k with ease imo if fed pivots or even slows down with those nasty hikes ! 🙂

[electronicash]

Guys there's an update from US, The CPI data just came in lower than expected!! (7.3% expected vs 7.1% actual)! Bullish for markets!
This means the Fed will definitely not raise interest rates by 75bps this time, the tightening policies are working out finally. This time maybe 50bps and soon to 25bps in the upcoming months to come?!
BTC will rock to 30k with ease imo if fed pivots or even slows down with those nasty hikes ! 🙂

we can only hope in the next press con of Pal. a lot of users above are doubting this could happen. but one thing is for sure about this raising interest rate, people hate it. they are tired of having 2-3 jobs to meet ends. the news about 7.1% is believed to have made this BTC price to roll up.

meanwhile crypto congress committee is about to take place related to FTX investigation and its not normal to see BTC price go up instead while they are attacking cryptocurrency. FED is happy to see SBF in prison and not able to testify to congress. yay! and for holders to be happy as well, they better low interest rate too. double yay!

[fzkto]

Guys there's an update from US, The CPI data just came in lower than expected!! (7.3% expected vs 7.1% actual)! Bullish for markets!
This means the Fed will definitely not raise interest rates by 75bps this time, the tightening policies are working out finally. This time maybe 50bps and soon to 25bps in the upcoming months to come?!
BTC will rock to 30k with ease imo if fed pivots or even slows down with those nasty hikes ! 🙂

I don't think bitcoin usually reacted much to interest rate increases, or rather it was short-term. This time, of course, the reaction was positive, and the surprising thing is that bitcoin reacted much earlier than the data was announced. But I think there is a lot of other bad news in the crypto market that affects the price. Today, for example, the claims against Binance started.

[OgNasty]

Investors are cheering today’s inflation reading as a sign the fed is going to pivot and start lowering rates sooner than previously expected. I think that might be a bit premature but if the market is cheering and prices are going up I can’t complain. I think the fed is going to do a better job with their do-over of the 2008 attempt at a soft landing. Hopefully the inflation this time around will keep a Lehman moment from happening.

[Baofeng]

Investors are cheering today’s inflation reading as a sign the fed is going to pivot and start lowering rates sooner than previously expected. I think that might be a bit premature but if the market is cheering and prices are going up I can’t complain. I think the fed is going to do a better job with their do-over of the 2008 attempt at a soft landing. Hopefully the inflation this time around will keep a Lehman moment from happening.

Yeah, short of saying that the recession has somewhat stopped and inflation slowing down. 7.1% versus the previously expected 7.3%.

Sot it's good news to us, as we have seen the price is jumping around to $19k with this announcement.

Lots of FOMO so let's see if this is sustainable at least at the end of the year.

[LittleBitFunny]

Investors are cheering today’s inflation reading as a sign the fed is going to pivot and start lowering rates sooner than previously expected. I think that might be a bit premature but if the market is cheering and prices are going up I can’t complain. I think the fed is going to do a better job with their do-over of the 2008 attempt at a soft landing. Hopefully the inflation this time around will keep a Lehman moment from happening.

Yeah, short of saying that the recession has somewhat stopped and inflation slowing down. 7.1% versus the previously expected 7.3%.

Sot it's good news to us, as we have seen the price is jumping around to $19k with this announcement.

Lots of FOMO so let's see if this is sustainable at least at the end of the year.

I didn't miss it, the price since the CPI announcement until now is only $18k, and now it's a little under $18k, haven't touched $19k yet.
Despite the FUD around binance, the market has recovered slightly with a lower-than-expected CPI, and tonight we get news of the last rate hike of the year. If everything goes as expected, the Fed only increases 0.5% then I believe we will have a rally that lasts until the end of the year. And a price of $19k as you mentioned or higher than $20k is possible.

[el kaka22]

Considering it looks like it's better than expected, I am not saying that we won't have an increase, but it's true that it may not be 75 points, maybe 50? Something like that.

It is not really great for the markets though, I mean we are talking about a situation where it's still rising, meaning people will still make more money from interest, and that means money going into banks, and that means less money in the markets. That will continue to be the case until we reach to a point where they start to drop the interest rate, doubt that would be easy, so that means we are going to see the market be like this for a while until people are used to it at least.

[Edwardard]

Update: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% just now, and laid out the carpet for a slower pace of hikes ahead, but signaled that rates will have to move higher than previously projected as inflation remains well above target.
Source: Investing.com
BTC and stocks reacted not so great even tho 50bps was expected by everyone