Brasileirão 2023 - Brazilian Championship Serie A

[rdluffy]

I did bet on Botafogo tonight as they can win exactly because of Santos really bad form.It takes time to recover from such awful performance and normally you will not do it against the top performer of the league.Botafogo on the other hand is in great form and I think they have to continue this form if they want to win the league this year.

Sorry for your loss, nobody believed in a draw, but after 15 matches, Botafogo drew their match against Santos. Incredible how the two teams are very far from each other in the table, but Santos was still the first team to draw with Botafogo.
First one (Botafogo) and 14th place (Santos) 

Fluminense will play Coritiba away this week. Coritiba have managed to collect 7 points from their last 3 games in the league. They have 11 points and are 18th in the league. They had a really bad period until the last weeks. On the other hand, Fluminense drew with Flamengo last week. I think they are getting inconsistent results. But they are 7th in the league with 25 points, even though they have one game less. If they win this match, they can suddenly move up to 3rd place. It's hard to predict the result of this match. But I think it will be under 2,5 goals again. Fluminense are very consistent in this regard.

Congratulations to bet on under 2,5 goals, if I were to bet on this match, it would be on Fluminense
Many matches in the Brazilian championship are extremely difficult to predict, these two macthes that I commented on in this post were two examples in which logic was not confirmed


I'm happy because yesterday Corinthians beat São Paulo 2-1 for the Copa do Brasil
The next match would be on August 16 and is worth a place in the grand final
A shame that I did not make any bets on this game for leaving for the last minute and not getting

[Slow death]

Tomorrow we have games, maybe I'm writing some nonsense, but in my opinion Botafoto in their last game in which they tied against Santos didn't seem to me to be the same team, maybe because they had a new coach, but in my opinion the owner of the club Cláudio Caçapa should have been promoted to the interim coach to be head coach, he showed good performance by making the team win and move farther away on the table, but with this new coach it started badly, Botafogo tied in a game in which this even close to losing and it was a game against a fragile team

In this round I won't place any bets, I'd rather watch only the games, especially in Botafogo, I want to see how this new coach will do when playing against Coritiba who, despite being at the bottom of the table, in the last 5 games they only had one defeat, and comes into this game with a sequence of 4 games without losing, and in the last 3 games they have shown to have a good defense, I see a very difficult game for Botafogo and the second test for the new coach, a defeat in this game will be bad for the new coach

[rdluffy]

Tomorrow we have games, maybe I'm writing some nonsense, but in my opinion Botafoto in their last game in which they tied against Santos didn't seem to me to be the same team, maybe because they had a new coach, but in my opinion the owner of the club Cláudio Caçapa should have been promoted to the interim coach to be head coach, he showed good performance by making the team win and move farther away on the table, but with this new coach it started badly, Botafogo tied in a game in which this even close to losing and it was a game against a fragile team

In this round I won't place any bets, I'd rather watch only the games, especially in Botafogo, I want to see how this new coach will do when playing against Coritiba who, despite being at the bottom of the table, in the last 5 games they only had one defeat, and comes into this game with a sequence of 4 games without losing, and in the last 3 games they have shown to have a good defense, I see a very difficult game for Botafogo and the second test for the new coach, a defeat in this game will be bad for the new coach

It was an atypical match so far for Botafogo, so much so that it was the first draw after 15 rounds.
It may be a matter of adaptation with the new coach, and I think it will soon return to normal since the team is intact, no changes, just continue the work

For the matches of the next round I have to bet on my Corinthians because I started to believe that there is hope for improvement in the championship.
I think the odds are good, 1.90 playing at home



The matches of Fluminense x Santos, and Botafogo x Coritiba can be good maches to make a multiple, giving 2.64, but if you are afraid to bet on this round, it is better to follow your intuition hehehe

[Slow death]

at each round botafogo has increased the points advantage in the table, now they have a 12 point advantage and when I look at the performance of the team that is in the second and third position, I am more convinced that this advantage of botafogo can still increase a lot every round. I will start talking about Flamengo, in the last 5 games Flamengo won only 1 game and had 4 draws, and a disappointment for the fans this poor performance by Flamengo, they were playing against São Paulo who is also going through a bad phase, with 5 games and they only won in just 1 game, even so Flamengo did not manage to leave this game with a victory, something very regrettable because they lost 3 points and with that they are leaving Botafogo with 12 points ahead, honestly I very much doubt that Flamengo manage to win the brazilian this season

while Flamengo is wasting points, the same cannot be said about Botafogo who played against Internacional, in a game in which Botafogo managed to score 3 goals and they won the game, funny that in this game Internacional was the first to score a goal against 18 minutes, but Botafogo managed to reverse this result in the second half by scoring 3 goals and winning the game. with this victory, botaogo is 12 points ahead, I think that in this scenario if it continues like this, botafogo can become champion this season, they need to take advantage of this season very well because the other teams are not doing well, so botafogo needs to strive to stay with a big difference in points in relation to all other teams

Fortaleza destroyed Santos, in a game in which Fortaleza scored 4 goals and did not concede a single goal, and an unexpected result, given that Fortaleza had not won for 4 consecutive games, and precisely in the game in which they won they managed to score 4 goals, It is true that his opponent was a weak opponent and that he is not in a good situation either, but I have to congratulate Fortaleza for this victory. grêmio won in their game against Fluminense, in that game grêmio managed to score two goals and conceded a goal, but this victory allowed grêmio to stay in second place

[rdluffy]

at each round botafogo has increased the points advantage in the table

I read (I don't remember now where it was, I'll try to find it) that Botafogo's chances of being champions are already over 80%
Incredible 


Today there's a big match in Brazil, the semi-finals of the Copa do Brasil
São Paulo vs Corinthians
Whoever qualifies will be in the grand final, and the first match was 1-0 to Corinthians, playing at home.

Will anyone be watching? The match starts in 1 hour

the chances are 52% Sao Paulo win, 28% a draw and only 19% Corinthians

[uneng]

at each round botafogo has increased the points advantage in the table, now they have a 12 point advantage and when I look at the performance of the team that is in the second and third position, I am more convinced that this advantage of botafogo can still increase a lot every round.

Botafogo is unbeatable this season. Who could guess it before the competition started? Botafogo had been showing average or poor performance for a long time already that nobody had any expectations they would smash every other clubs this year. Right now I think Botafogo is already taking advantage of a psychological effect of superiority against other teams. When they play against Botafogo they don't manage to play efficiently, because there is a high pressure when facing the leader. Sometimes they play fine at the beginning of the match, but Botafogo always overcome them after all.

[rdluffy]

Botafogo is unbeatable this season. Who could guess it before the competition started? Botafogo had been showing average or poor performance for a long time already that nobody had any expectations they would smash every other clubs this year. Right now I think Botafogo is already taking advantage of a psychological effect of superiority against other teams. When they play against Botafogo they don't manage to play efficiently, because there is a high pressure when facing the leader. Sometimes they play fine at the beginning of the match, but Botafogo always overcome them after all.

To be honest, nobody believed that Botafogo would do so well in the Brazilian championship. I didn't believe it myself and I didn't see any person saying that too.
When a team is in first place with such an advantage (13 points more than second place) it certainly has an extra factor when other teams play against them, especially since Botafogo have only lost 2 games so far.


I found the news I was looking for, according to this website: HERE Botafogo have 90.7% of chances to be the champion 
The second with the most chances is Grêmio with only 2.8% followed by Palmeiras with 2.2% 

Detail, it's only the half of the championship yet, 19 matches

[Slow death]

Today we have a match between Botafogo and Sao Paulo, it won't be an easy game for Botafogo, that's because Santos, who in the last 5 games had mixed results, had 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, and they are 4 games without a win , so in this game Santos, who will be playing at home and with the support of their fans, will make an effort so that they can win this game, but I also suspect that Santos will spare players because in the next game they will play in the South American Cup and Santos knows that they have no chance of being champions of the Brazilian, so the coach of santos could choose not to put some good players in this game looking at the next game of the south american cup, because santos can go far in the south american cup

while botafogo is in a somewhat delicate situation, they are at the top of the table, a victory in this game would make them more distant from their opponents, but also botafogo has a game in the south american cup, which means that the coach of botafogo could choose to play with only a few good players to save all the best players so that he is strong in the next game of the south american cup, that is, botafogo can look for a draw in this game than to keep striving for a victory and have players sold out in the next game of the South American Cup, in any case only the lineup will tell us the posture of Botafogo

Palmeiras has a very difficult game today, a victory in this game and a defeat by Botafogo would put Palmeiras 10 points behind, which up to a certain point we could consider Palmeiras as another candidate for the title, but a defeat in this game is a victory from Botafogo, it would make things very difficult for Palmeiras, having a difference of 16 points with the first place would not be a good thing if Palmeiras wants to be champions again, but their opponent today is strong, in the last 5 games the cuiaba lost only 1 game, and cuiaba has the strength to get a draw in today's game. Tomorrow Flamengo will play against Coritiba, who in the last 5 games have won only 1 game and come into this game with 3 consecutive wins. so I see Flamengo winning this game

at each round botafogo has increased the points advantage in the table

I read (I don't remember now where it was, I'll try to find it) that Botafogo's chances of being champions are already over 80%
Incredible 

despite the difference in points being 13 points, I still think these 80% chances of them being champions are exaggerated, because there are still many games ahead and a lot can happen, if they were 30 points apart then I would agree with these 80%

at each round botafogo has increased the points advantage in the table, now they have a 12 point advantage and when I look at the performance of the team that is in the second and third position, I am more convinced that this advantage of botafogo can still increase a lot every round.

Botafogo is unbeatable this season. Who could guess it before the competition started? Botafogo had been showing average or poor performance for a long time already that nobody had any expectations they would smash every other clubs this year. Right now I think Botafogo is already taking advantage of a psychological effect of superiority against other teams. When they play against Botafogo they don't manage to play efficiently, because there is a high pressure when facing the leader. Sometimes they play fine at the beginning of the match, but Botafogo always overcome them after all.

I am also surprised that they are at the top, I thought that Palmeiras would be champions or Flamengo again, but these two teams are unstable

[rdluffy]

despite the difference in points being 13 points, I still think these 80% chances of them being champions are exaggerated, because there are still many games ahead and a lot can happen, if they were 30 points apart then I would agree with these 80%

I know it's hard to believe because there's a lot of possibilities and variables to consider
I'll post another example, look at the chances to be the champion updated:

Botafogo – 90,7%
Grêmio – 2,8%
Palmeiras – 2,2%
Red Bull Bragantino – 1,1%
Fluminense – 0,94%
Flamengo – 0,84%

Source

Mathematicians from UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) who made this calculation

I am also surprised that they are at the top, I thought that Palmeiras would be champions or Flamengo again, but these two teams are unstable

Me too, I thougt that Palmeiras would be at first place right now, but they are prioritizing the Libertadores, and that's caused them to lose important points in the Brazilian championship.
At least in the Libertadores they're the best team

Flamengo is another explanation, they're really unstable. Sometimes they play very good matches, win difficult games, but in other theoretically easier games, they are losing, and with that they can no longer reach the title in my opinion

[Slow death]

the games of this round have already ended, the results of the games involving the candidate teams for the title were results that did not cause surprises. Palmeiras played against Vasco da Gama, in a game in which Palmeiras came as a favorite in my opinion, Palmeiras in the last 5 games only lost 1 time, coming from 2 consecutive victories and needed to win this game because they played in at home and also because they couldn't let Botafogo increase the points difference in the table, while Vasco had 1 loss, 1 draw and 2 wins, they were 2 games without losing, it was a game in which Palmeiras did not manage score more than 1 goal which in my opinion showed that palm trees had difficulties in this game

honestly I'm amazed how palm trees managed to recover and are currently in second place, in their games they have scored 1 or 2 goals and they win, they are not a team that keeps crushing their opponents, they are not winning games with great superiority , they are winning in a more intelligent way, they score few goals and strengthen themselves in defense, this is the type of strategy that can make them champions again if Botafogo makes mistakes, there are still many games ahead so nothing is decided when it comes to deals with who will be the champion of this season

Botafogo played against Bahia, in this game Botafogo had 2 draws and 2 wins, playing at home and against an opponent that in the last 4 games had mixed results or like 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, it would not be a game easy for Botafogo, at least that was what I thought, that in this game Botafogo would win but with some difficulties, but on the field Botafogo crushed their opponent, there were 3 goals scored by Botafogo and their opponent couldn't score a single goal . with this result, botafogo manages to maintain an advantage of 11 points in relation to second place, but this advantage is still not something that gives comfort to botafogo, which with the 2 draws it had in the last 5 games made it lose points, if they want to be champions then need to win all games to have a big difference in points with second place

[rdluffy]

honestly I'm amazed how palm trees managed to recover and are currently in second place, in their games they have scored 1 or 2 goals and they win, they are not a team that keeps crushing their opponents, they are not winning games with great superiority , they are winning in a more intelligent way, they score few goals and strengthen themselves in defense, this is the type of strategy that can make them champions again if Botafogo makes mistakes, there are still many games ahead so nothing is decided when it comes to deals with who will be the champion of this season

At the start of the season I thought that Palmeiras would be in first place and that they would be champions, but the team is very focused on the Libertadores da America and this has affected some games in which they have lost important points
In my opinion, if Palmeiras were only playing in the Brazilian championship, they would be very close to Botafogo.

We're now 21 rounds into the championship, there are still 17 rounds to go, with 51 points at stake for each team
Botafogo have an 11 points lead, and mathematically it's possible to catch up, but so far the team has only lost 2 games, I think it's very difficult to take the title away from Botafogo, especially as they've just been eliminated from the Sudamericana, and will focus entirely on the national championship


And tomorrow will be one of the biggest derbies in Brazilian soccer: Corinthians vs Palmeiras. This is the kind of game that's worth more than three points, and fans take it very seriously
Palmeiras is the favorite of course, but I'm going to bet on Corinthians hehehe
If you can, go and watch it because there's a lot of chance it'll be a great game

[Slow death]

yesterday's games had very surprising results, Botafogo played against Flamengo, without a doubt that it would be a difficult game, Flamengo is an unstable team that came into this game with mixed results in the last games, they had 1 defeat, 2 draws and 1 victory while Botafogo who played at home came into this game with 2 draws and 2 wins, I looked at Botafogo as the favorite, but on the field Botafogo had a lot of bad luck, firstly they scored a goal in their own goal in the 2nd minute of the 1 half, in a game of great importance like this, something like an own goal happening greatly affects the entire game, but Botafogo managed to score the equalizer in the 19th minute and it looked like they were ready to score the second goal and leave the game with victory

but Flamengo scored a goal and thus took the lead and Botafogo had to make up for the loss, something they couldn't do and even after the game ended, the Botafoto player received a red card, something that in my opinion was not smart on the part of the team. Botafogo player, because the game was already ending, it was obvious that they had already lost so there was no reason to risk receiving a red card, now it hurt the team in the next game

Gremio is having a good campaign this season, they played against Cuiba and won, it was a game in which Gremio came as favorites, firstly because they were playing at home and secondly because in the last 4 games they had 2 defeats and 2 victories, with the Their opponent, Cuiaba, was coming off 3 consecutive defeats in this game, so Gremio's mission was very easy. Palmeiras played against Corinthians and couldn't come out of the game with a win, but at least they managed to come away with a draw, even so, they wasted a great chance to stay close to Botafogo in the table.

[rdluffy]

... Palmeiras played against Corinthians and couldn't come out of the game with a win, but at least they managed to come away with a draw, even so, they wasted a great chance to stay close to Botafogo in the table.

Derby games are very difficult to predict and the results don't always reflect the teams' situations.
Palmeiras are having a much better campaign than Corinthians, and yet they haven't managed to win at Corinthians' stadium.
Just as Botafogo are much more stable than Flamengo, and still lost the game.
In my opinion, these are the most difficult games to bet on, regardless of the teams' positions in the league.

Guys do you also have the same opinion about derby matches?


Botafogo are holding firm because Palmeiras have really "wasted" 2 points and the gap is 10 points

[Ondekinecakabilirim]

Botafogo are holding firm because Palmeiras have really "wasted" 2 points and the gap is 10 points

Botafogo are widening their points gap with their rivals in the Brazilian Serie A. Last week they lost to Flamengo but we can see that they are the strongest candidate for the title.

I read in the press today that Fluminense renewed the contract with Felipe Melo. His contract was extended until December 2024. He's 40 years old now. I'm sure he has a lot to pass on to the young players of Fluminense. After he leaves football, I would like to see him among the technical team of Galatasaray. With his ambition and passion for football, he is a character who can provide the motivation that football teams need.

[Slow death]

the next games will be very interesting. Flamengo will play against Athletico, although Flamengo is playing at home, this will not be an easy game because Athletico has come from 5 games without losing, and in the last 5 games they had 4 draws and 1 victory, and that comes of 3 consecutive draws, while Flamengo had 2 draws in the last 5 games. With these data, I would be very careful in betting on Flamengo's victory in this game, most of the time when you are facing a scenario like this in which we have a team with 4 draws in the last 5 games, it has a greater chance of winning in the next game as well. have a draw

In my opinion, Flamengo could end up with a draw in this game, so if I were to place a bet on this game, I would choose Flamengo to win or draw if the odds were above 1.50 and it would be worth making that bet. São Paulo will play against Internacional, this will be a game between two teams that have not been doing well in recent games, so in my opinion the result of this game will be very unpredictable, which is why I will not make any predictions. Gremio will have a complicated game against Bragantinho, because in the last 5 games Bragantinho only lost in 1 game, while Gramio had 2 defeats in the last 5 games. I see a difficult game for Gremio, but I believe they will come out with at least 1 draw

palmeiras will also have a very difficult game against goiais who have not lost in 5 consecutive games, goiais come from 3 consecutive draws while palmeiras had 1 draw in their last game, I won't be surprised if palmeiras comes out of this game with another a tie. Botafogo will also have a difficult game, but I see them coming out with victory. it will be interesting to see how the top teams fare in this round

[rdluffy]

And to my surprise (I think everyone's) Botafogo lost yesterday to Atlético MG. That's two defeats in a row, which hasn't happened to the team until now
The lead, which was 10 points, has now dropped to 7 points. Botafogo wasted 6 points

They were games against tough opponents of course, Flamengo and Atlético MG are very strong, and the next game will be against Corinthians, so it's good to keep an eye on them because if they lose again, the lead could drop to just 4 points.

My team, Corinthians, will play against Gremio tomorrow, who are in 3rd, but even so, because Corinthians are playing at home, the odds are favorable, with 2.55 odds for a win, 3.20 for a draw and 3.0 for a Gremio win.
To make it more exciting, I'm going to bet just 4 or 5 dollars on Corinthians because I'm not so convinced that the team can beat Gremio, especially as they'll be using reserve players since they're focused on the semi-final of the Copa Sudamericana

[Slow death]

well, it seems to me that what could be a surprise in relation to the winner of the league this season seems to no longer happen, I'm talking about Botafogo where I even thought that they had a good chance of beating the Brazilian, but looking at For Botafogo's last games I see that things will be very different, Botafogo were lucky to stay at the top and that's because they were playing very well with the old coach, but a change of coach was not a good thing, you didn't feel that change in immediate, but now it is becoming very visible that with the current coach Botafogo is in a bad situation and it will be a matter of a few games for Palmeiras to stay at the top of the table and they will not leave the top until they become champions.

well, in the game the team that gets the most points always becomes champion, so it won't be by mere luck that palmeiras will win, they are showing that they are a strong team in defensive terms, just see that palmeiras has 8 consecutive games without conceding a goal. in all competitions, it is an excellent defensive performance, that is, in a game, Palmeira only needs to score 1 goal and this can guarantee victory because they are strong defensively. But we can't say the same thing about Botafogo, which in the last 8 games has conceded at least 1 goal in most games.

So this difference between these two teams, for me it shows that Palmeiras is a much more stable and strong team to beat the Brazilian, it was good to see Botafogo occupy the top for many games, but they won't last much longer in that position, probably within 6 games Palmeiras will be at the top and I don't know if Botafogo can reach second place, even in that they may not be able to do so, because there are still more than 10 games left until the end of the league, leaving room for other teams to finish in the top spot. second position and palmeiras in first position

[rdluffy]

So this difference between these two teams, for me it shows that Palmeiras is a much more stable and strong team to beat the Brazilian, it was good to see Botafogo occupy the top for many games, but they won't last much longer in that position, probably within 6 games Palmeiras will be at the top and I don't know if Botafogo can reach second place, even in that they may not be able to do so, because there are still more than 10 games left until the end of the league, leaving room for other teams to finish in the top spot. second position and palmeiras in first position

I still believe that Botafogo will be the champion
BUT...
I agree with you about the coach and with your post in general, Palmeiras is an excellent candidate for the title, they're not in first place because they're focusing on the Libertadores right now
Botafogo played against two very difficult opponents, Flamengo and Atlético MG, so it could be that the team needed one or two defeats to encourage them to improve and get back to winning like before

It seems that the championship is shaping up to be a great contest at the end, it would be very good if the champion was decided only in the last 3 games for example


Corinthians played an atypical game yesterday, it's been a long time since I've seen a game like that, it was 4x4 against Gremio, 8 goals in one game
And a detail: the 8 goals were scored by 8 different players

Yesterday must have frustrated many bettors

[Slow death]

So this difference between these two teams, for me it shows that Palmeiras is a much more stable and strong team to beat the Brazilian, it was good to see Botafogo occupy the top for many games, but they won't last much longer in that position, probably within 6 games Palmeiras will be at the top and I don't know if Botafogo can reach second place, even in that they may not be able to do so, because there are still more than 10 games left until the end of the league, leaving room for other teams to finish in the top spot. second position and palmeiras in first position

I still believe that Botafogo will be the champion
BUT...

It seems that this season the team that has the most luck will win, Botafogo who played against Corinthians, failed to win, on paper I already considered this game to be a very difficult game for Botafogo and during the game when the Botafogo player, Fernando got a red card, so Botafogo's defeat was already declared, with 67% possession of the ball, Corinthians would score a goal at any minute, something that happened in the 59th minute, then Botafogo just had to pray for the game to end So because at least then they would only concede 1 goal, but Botafogo was unable to reverse the result, with this defeat we have Botafogo with 3 consecutive defeats

another candidate for the title also lost, I'm talking about palmeiras who played against gremio, this was a very difficult game for palmeiras, this is because gremio this season is a team with good performance and can also be champion, this is because with this victory, Gremio has 43 points, 1 point away from Palmeiras and 8 points away from Botafogo, in the last 5 games Gremio only had 1 defeat, if they continue with this good performance and Palmeiras and Botafogo continue as they are with this bad performance so I see the club being champions

There are still many games for the league to finish, I don't see Palmeiras being able to improve much in the remaining games, Palmeiras have managed to stay in their current position because they have a good defense, and that also happens with Botafogo, thanks to their good defense they are at the top, but as they continue to lose games and if the club continues to win games, especially if they win games against Palmeiras itself (they have already won against Palmeiras) and Botafogo, then the club's chances of being champion will be greater.

[rdluffy]

It seems that this season the team that has the most luck will win, Botafogo who played against Corinthians, failed to win, on paper I already considered this game to be a very difficult game for Botafogo and during the game when the Botafogo player, Fernando got a red card, so Botafogo's defeat was already declared, with 67% possession of the ball, Corinthians would score a goal at any minute, something that happened in the 59th minute, then Botafogo just had to pray for the game to end So because at least then they would only concede 1 goal, but Botafogo was unable to reverse the result, with this defeat we have Botafogo with 3 consecutive defeats

Botafogo had three games against very tough teams in a row
The next game against Goias should be easier, then it's against Fluminense who are another very difficult team, but from then on there will be 4 theoretically easier games, and I think Botafogo will get back to winning
I'm glad my Corinthians beat Botafogo, at least they're off the bottom of the table and I've made a small profit.

The championship as a whole is better now, as the gap has dropped to 7 points and with Palmeiras' defeat, Grêmio are now very close to the top, just 1 point behind Palmeiras, like you said, and even better, the next teams on table are very close to each other.


São Paulo have just won the Copa do Brasil, an unprecedented title for the club, which they won against Flamengo
São Paulo will now prioritize the brasileirão and this could greatly improve the team's position in the league, while Flamengo seem to be entering a crisis again after they fired coach Sampaoli
The championship is going to be even more interesting from now