An IDEA for BTC ½ ing structure.

[philipma1957]

Eventually, the subsidy will be 0. It cannot be avoided. I don't think that delaying the inevitable accomplishes anything.

By slowing the cycle down the rewards continues at a reasonable pace for miners

Slowing down the pace does not help the miners, and increasing the 21 million limit only subsidizes inefficient miners.

and the incentive to use LN network to avoid fees on the chain is increase.

Creating artificial incentives to use LN will only hurt Bitcoin and LN as the value derived from those incentives must be taken from someone.

In no way have I ever said there would be more than 21 million coins.


And BTC has a real issue not very far away. By 2056 block reward is only 0.0122xxxx

Now if you want to argue BTC is a transitional digital coin that is leading the way for DOGE to be the currency coin of the future why delay this from happening I could see your pain.  But that is another thread.

I am simply questioning the wisdom of the current 1/2 ing speed.

If you want to argue

 BTC = POW
BTC + LN = hybrid
eventually all LN

topic for another thread.

I only look to slow the speed of 1/2 ing to 8 years or to 6 years or to 5 years.

Maybe BTC is designed to expire in the future if I recall 2144?

I simply see the compression to go to zero as too fast. Mostly due to 8 digits not 10 and high price of btc.

But I predicted the failure of the iPad so my guesses for the future can be really wrong.

[garlonicon]

Maybe BTC is designed to expire in the future if I recall 2144?

No, it is much faster. It is 2106 if you handle time as uint32. But it is 2038, if you use int32 (or even int64 in the middle), and you have some weird assertions in your code, see: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5365359.msg58166985#msg58166985

[odolvlobo]

And BTC has a real issue not very far away. By 2056 block reward is only 0.0122xxxx

What is the issue and how bad is it?

[pooya87]

And BTC has a real issue not very far away. By 2056 block reward is only 0.0122xxxx

It is actually not as bad as you think it is. This is also not a new thing, every halving cycle we have the same discussion on bitcointalk which they even have a fancy name for it called "bitcoin death spiral". What you are forgetting is that the block reward you are talking about is from 0.0244 to 0.0122 which is A LOT smaller than the drop from 50 to 25 BTC and we didn't have a big issue back then, we aren't going to have a big issue in the future either.

[LoyceV]

And BTC has a real issue not very far away. By 2056 block reward is only 0.0122xxxx

What is the issue and how bad is it?

I don't see an issue with this. Current mining hardware lasts only a few years before it's obsolete, so miners already work with much smaller time frames. Back in 2017, when fees peaked, I've seen blocks with 6 Bitcoin paid in transaction fees. Lower block subsidies are designed by Satoshi to make Bitcoin deflationary. That's one of the things I like about Bitcoin.

By 2056, maybe fees are 1 Bitcoin per block. That's a couple hundred sat/vbyte. Maybe blocks are much bigger by then. Maybe 0.0122 Bitcoin is worth more than a house. Those are all uncertain, but the one thing we can count on is that Bitcoin including halvings continues as scheduled.
The only real problem I can think of, would be if the total of block reward plus transaction fees is worth very little, in which case a 51% attack becomes too cheap. Then again, if that happens, Bitcoin hasn't lived up to it's promise. I don't expect this to happen, I expect miners to adjust to the new reality of future halvings.

[philipma1957]

Well like I said I will be 99 in 2056 very likely I do not get to see the problem I fear.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I just want to point out that 2056 is 33 years ahead. Thirty three. That's about twice and a half the age of bitcoin. I think we can just wait a few more years, and discuss with better history.

[NotATether]

I guess one method we can do to mitigate the fall is to somehow raise BTC prices back to normal levels, since we have technically already hit a "mini-halfing" and miners have lost 1/2 of their bitcoin value relative to normal prices. Elon Musk where are you?

[BlackHatCoiner]

I guess one method we can do to mitigate the fall is to somehow raise BTC prices back to normal levels

I have them above normal levels. It's just that nobody takes the offer. 

[philipma1957]

I guess one method we can do to mitigate the fall is to somehow raise BTC prices back to normal levels

I have them above normal levels. It's just that nobody takes the offer. 

Ahh I mine Doge and Hodl it basically because it has long term legs and BTC does not.


but I mine BTC just in case I am wrong.


The nice thing is I can do both and hedge my bets.