California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages

[Hydrogen]

• The electricity grid is being pushed to the breaking point and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls.
• The grid is being challenged as it goes through an unprecedented transformation from fossil fuel based energy to renewable sources of energy.
• NERC officials emphasized how important it is for grid operators to be very conservative in retiring generation, particularly in regions of the country where the system is at its max already.

America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.

“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.

The reasons for the shortfalls vary.

In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday. Energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018, Olson said.

In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10 hours during peak summer months in 2024.

Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.

“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.

The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy generation is low in the region.

‘Extraordinary times’

“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on Thursday.

Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).

Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from seven to 15 years, Moura says.

Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.

Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.

“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.

These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.

“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”

For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be worthwhile, according to NERC.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006. NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/california-midwest-at-high-risk-of-electricity-shortages-nerc.html

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In the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, are electricity and energy supply projected to become deflationary for the forseeable future?

If this is true. Is it fair to say economic trends post 2020 have become dominated by deflationary declines in supply? Our financial markets and trends are operating under a post abundance economy? If such an analysis can offer a clearer insight, into economic projections for the near future. It could help serve in an advisory role, in terms of which assets to invest in. And which financial policies to take.

To some degree bitcoin and crypto mining have become associated with hydroelectric and renewable sources of energy. Venezuelans used "free electricity" generated by the caracas dam to mine bitcoin in previous years. Currently today, we see US states like texas powering crypto mining ventures through their newly constructed wind farms.

We currently lack mobile options to serve as consumption for surplus renewable power. Perhaps this is a role which crypto can be utilized to fill in the future?

[1714909115]

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[1714909115]

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[Poker Player]

Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).

The bottom line is that Biden's energy policies want to bring the US closer to the model of Cuba or Venezuela where power outages are commonplace. Politicians are specialists in offering solutions to the problems they themselves create, so it is not surprising to see Biden pleading with Venezuela or Saudi Arabia about oil when it is a problem he himself created.

Our financial markets and trends are operating under a post abundance economy?

Rather, they are operating under a socialist political economy, like Carter's, who told people that if they were cold in the winter, what they had to do was cover themselves with a blanket.

As soon as someone comes into office who lowers taxes and removes regulations, energy production will return to that of a first world country.

[arabspaceship123]

How's blame pointing at Biden helping if it's state politicians guilty of policies? Wasn't America declared energy reliable so Biden doesn't have to import oil from Venezuela or Saudi Arabia. It's true America's sitting on energy reserves for Americans to use if a war starts. It's unfounded speculation blaming Biden.

The bottom line is that Biden's energy policies want to bring the US closer to the model of Cuba or Venezuela where power outages are commonplace. Politicians are specialists in offering solutions to the problems they themselves create, so it is not surprising to see Biden pleading with Venezuela or Saudi Arabia about oil when it is a problem he himself created.

[misterrtwisterr]

It's bound to happen when you push things like EV's without proper infrastructure. Not to mention ridiculous green laws that are going to ruin western economies. Especially Europe. Because Europe is particularly efficient when it comes to self sabotage.

[Flexystar]

Desperate time calls for desperate measures!
US will need to enforce proper stations and substations around the country. Though they have population under control they have high usage of the electricity. I don’t know why there is always negative news about US which is in the ratio of 2:5 considering US:World. This ain’t funny. How are they managing the entire nation if these are going to escalate day by day.
Is US not prepared for the worst ?
They are one of the powerful continent in the world I just hope they keep upgrading themselves with time and leave the “oldie” administration behind the lines.

[o48o]

Rather, they are operating under a socialist political economy, like Carter's, who told people that if they were cold in the winter, what they had to do was cover themselves with a blanket.

As soon as someone comes into office who lowers taxes and removes regulations, energy production will return to that of a first world country.

Lol, USA is so far from socialism that even mentioning the word gets them heated up. Anything that isn't Anarcho-capitalism seems to be socialism so maybe you need to chek what those words mean.
And removing regulations? You got to be kidding. Good luck with that, it would take 2 weeks until you would have total mad max anarchy and you would need to have another civil war just to build it all again
And how would power shortages have anything to do with socialist democracy politics?

[Gyfts]

Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).

The bottom line is that Biden's energy policies want to bring the US closer to the model of Cuba or Venezuela where power outages are commonplace. Politicians are specialists in offering solutions to the problems they themselves create, so it is not surprising to see Biden pleading with Venezuela or Saudi Arabia about oil when it is a problem he himself created.

Our financial markets and trends are operating under a post abundance economy?

Rather, they are operating under a socialist political economy, like Carter's, who told people that if they were cold in the winter, what they had to do was cover themselves with a blanket.

As soon as someone comes into office who lowers taxes and removes regulations, energy production will return to that of a first world country.

Not just Biden, the progressive fascists and/or socialists want fundamental changes to the global energy system based on fossil fuels and transition it to unsustainable renewables that wouldn't even come close to meeting global energy demand.

Rolling blackouts or government rationing of energy happens every year, usually in the winter, when they don't have enough energy to go around. The environmentalists would rather have people freeze to death rather than create the necessary carbon pollution in order to warm homes.

[NotATether]

Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at elevated risk (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.

As you can see, state grids are failing not because of any PoW mining, but because of air conditioners and heaters.

You'll be surprised at the magnitude of energy they generate when millions of people are running them, compared to a couple thousand ASICs.

[DrBeer]

In the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, are electricity and energy supply projected to become deflationary for the forseeable future?

If this is true. Is it fair to say economic trends post 2020 have become dominated by deflationary declines in supply? Are our financial markets and trends operating under a post abundance economy? If such an analysis can offer a clearer insight, into economic projections for the near future. It could help serve in an advisory role, in terms of which assets to invest in. And which financial policies to take.

To some degree bitcoin and crypto mining have become associated with hydroelectric and renewable sources of energy. Venezuelans used "free electricity" generated by the caracas dam to mine bitcoin in previous years. Currently today, we see US states like texas powering crypto mining ventures through their newly constructed wind farms.

We currently lack mobile options to serve as consumption for surplus renewable power. Perhaps this is a role which crypto can be utilized to fill in the future?

No, it's a bit of a misconception. Green energy will not be free or deflationary. and quite a lot. The main thing is that the cost of ownership of such technologies is quite high, or at least not at all zero.
And this equipment is not eternal, it requires both maintenance and replacement, and repairs.
The value of renewable energy is that it is less environmentally friendly, has a longer "extraction" period, since fossil resources are not unlimited and over time their extraction becomes more difficult.
Therefore, relying on a deflationary scheme is not worth it.

[pooya87]

It's true America's sitting on energy reserves for Americans to use if a war starts.

Didn't they already release a large percentage of their strategic reserves? I think it was about 40% to 50% of the it dumped on the market to decrease the price. Right now about 300 million barrels remaining and US consumes 19 million barrels per day. In other words if any war breaks out that cuts off their supplies they only have oil for 15-16 days!

[ancafe]

In the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, are electricity and energy supply projected to become deflationary for the forseeable future?

Likely to happen but not sure!!!
The electricity and energy supplies are potentially renewable, using a number of methods that are currently being tested or have been implemented. The increase in price per KWH for each payment will also increase each year, given the supply and the resulting deflationary value.

As far as I know deflation is adding value by reducing the amount in circulation with the aim of returning additional value. Provision of electrical energy will not have a major impact on deflation in the future, because the renewal concept can be carried out in an old way or is being developed.

If this is true. Is it fair to say economic trends post 2020 have become dominated by deflationary declines in supply? Our financial markets and trends are operating under a post abundance economy? If such an analysis can offer a clearer insight, into economic projections for the near future. It could help serve in an advisory role, in terms of which assets to invest in. And which financial policies to take.

For some sectors it may be true that deflation has influenced economic trends, with some supplies having either been abundant or diminished.

We can review the strength of an independent economy individually through the investment preparations that we make, the financial policies provided by the government cannot fully guarantee inflation or the recession that will take place in the future. So that preparing individually is more likely to be done, one way is by investing in bitcoin, because this asset has resilience in conditions of inflation and recession and most importantly bitcoin can maintain the value of the investment in the long term.

To some degree bitcoin and crypto mining have become associated with hydroelectric and renewable sources of energy. Venezuelans used "free electricity" generated by the caracas dam to mine bitcoin in previous years. Currently today, we see US states like texas powering crypto mining ventures through their newly constructed wind farms.

There is no authentic evidence regarding miners having used up some of the available electrical energy, haven't researchers said that there are still many other companies that use more electrical energy than bitcoin miners.

There are many ways to generate electricity independently, both by renewal methods and by using old methods, so that crypto mining is not always associated with a waste of electricity.

We currently lack mobile options to serve as consumption for surplus renewable power. Perhaps this is a role which crypto can be utilized to fill in the future?

As time goes by, technology is growing, it is possible that many things can be renewed, including cellular options as renewable excess energy consumption, when many people begin to open up to the concept of the challenges of modern life by combining technology.

[arabspaceship123]

Their supplies numbering 15-16 days protection isn't good governance from economy chiefs. Dumping reserves to decrease prices it's a short method for temporary solutions. Didn't America announce they're producing enough energy for themselves so their reliance on imported oil's over?

It's true America's sitting on energy reserves for Americans to use if a war starts.

Didn't they already release a large percentage of their strategic reserves? I think it was about 40% to 50% of the it dumped on the market to decrease the price. Right now about 300 million barrels remaining and US consumes 19 million barrels per day. In other words if any war breaks out that cuts off their supplies they only have oil for 15-16 days!

[adaseb]

Yes and they think that they can completely ban ICE in about 10 years. Maybe in an area where they had tons of nuclear plants but in California it will be a disaster.

Pretty much every year when there is a heat wave they got rolling black outs. So imagine how bad it will be when cars are completely banned which are gasoline powered.

[pooya87]

Didn't America announce they're producing enough energy for themselves so their reliance on imported oil's over?

Considering that they are still importing a large amount of oil and are still stealing oil from countries they illegally occupy like Syria and begging Venezuella and Arab countries to sell them oil and beg Iran to go back to JCPOA and dump its 10+ million barrels on Western markets, I wouldn't be so sure about US reliance on imported oil being anywhere close to being over.
Besides, US oil is very heavy and has low quality. They still need to import high quality light oil from West Asia and the side products needed for their refineries.

[franky1]

california are a leech on the US infrustructure

they set up in a land that is surrounded by desert, where they dont have a mountain top of their own to act as a watershed to funnel their own water to be self sustainable, they borrow electric and water from naighbouring states. (plural)

when it comes to electric. their business model a few years back was this
"purchasing electric from national grid is cheap, plus we have dams, lets turn off the coal power buffer and survive without it" (yep short sighted)
they went green before they were ready, thinking the national grid backup was affordable

now with their shoddy math of water quota, and over using their allotment, they are having issues with their dreams of self sustained power by hydro. and with national grid electric on higher prices. they refuse to buy that electric and instead want to use brownouts

if a business (any business) was to say we refuse to buy produce from a source instead people will have to just go without.. that business needs to be shut down they should not be continually asking money from consumers while telling consumers to just get on by with expected outages

california were too quick to shut down their energy buffer in coal "to be green" they cared more about wearing a green star on their chest rather than supplying goods/services to their customers

there is more then enough methods and amounts of ways to generate more energy than needed. california just refuse to pay for it,

california's problem is greed
as proven by them telling nevada, arizona and mexico to stop using as much water, while california still continued to use the most water and not reduce themselves

[oaz7t]

Franky1, I think they have good geolocation. I don’t know the map but if you are saying they are surrounded by the desert then they have an amazing opportunity to generate a solar power grid. What is making them stop investing in such a pure energy grid? Huge desert can be a geo advantage for them as they can deploy hectares of solar cell panels and generate electricity with it. It seems they are not interested in investing in an infra and maintaining them. But sometimes in the  future they will have to go for such options and create their own electricity otherwise the states from where they are borrowing it will also face the also face the same challenges and it could lead towards cold war between the two Funny how such rich states are not planning modern tech for their own benefits.

[el kaka22]

Two things; one of them is the high capital required to start, and they are already facing the issue so if they start doing solar panels today then they would have to spend tens of billions of dollars (which they do not have) and would cause a little bit of delay on getting it. Secondly it would be the improving tech, when you buy a solar panel today, even if you get the newest tech, in a year there will be a better tech because we haven't reached the pinnacle of that tech yet.

If you own iPhone 10 instead of latest 14 it wouldn't be too different, sure some difference but not a lot, but if you have nokia 3310 and use it for 10 years, then you are missing out on the newest things. Right now solar panels are at 3310 situations, not iphone 10 hence spending tens of billions means in a few years you spent it on useless old tech.

[arabspaceship123]

Didn't America announce they're producing enough energy for themselves so their reliance on imported oil's over?

Considering that they are still importing a large amount of oil and are still stealing oil from countries they illegally occupy like Syria and begging Venezuella and Arab countries to sell them oil and beg Iran to go back to JCPOA and dump its 10+ million barrels on Western markets, I wouldn't be so sure about US reliance on imported oil being anywhere close to being over.
Besides, US oil is very heavy and has low quality. They still need to import high quality light oil from West Asia and the side products needed for their refineries.

Thanks for educating me I didn't know oil's heavy or light. I've known what everyone else's known it's black & drilled