Betting strategy question

[pawel7777]

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I highly agree, in all honesty, majority of people don't care about EVs may it + or -, what they have in their eyes is the price.  If the price is huge no matter what is the chance, they will bet on it.  After all, the bet wouldn't make them any poorer but the win will be a life changer for them (given in your example)

That's true to a large degree - apparently the majority of adults in the UK play some sort of lottery games despite very low odds of winning. Most people may not be familiar with the concept of EV, but they'd still care if EV was high enough, i.e. a lot of people would not be interested in taking a $1 bet when they could win $1 million, but the odds of winning were 1:10 million, but probably everyone (maybe except religious Muslims) would take it if the odds were 1:10 (not that it'll ever happen). So the higher the EV, the more they care.

[nullama]

~snip~
That's true to a large degree - apparently the majority of adults in the UK play some sort of lottery games despite very low odds of winning. Most people may not be familiar with the concept of EV, but they'd still care if EV was high enough, i.e. a lot of people would not be interested in taking a $1 bet when they could win $1 million, but the odds of winning were 1:10 million, but probably everyone (maybe except religious Muslims) would take it if the odds were 1:10 (not that it'll ever happen). So the higher the EV, the more they care.

The thing is that we humans are not great dealing with probabilities in our minds, so the casinos and other gambling companies simply use this fact in their favor.

It's not natural to think about probabilities, we are just not good at it. On the other hand for example we are great at thinking in terms of Newtonian physics, we don't need to calculate an equation to know how to throw a rock for example, yet we can think perfectly well how to do it. For probabilities you actually have to calculate the math behind it.

[pawel7777]

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The thing is that we humans are not great dealing with probabilities in our minds, so the casinos and other gambling companies simply use this fact in their favor.

It's not natural to think about probabilities, we are just not good at it. On the other hand for example we are great at thinking in terms of Newtonian physics, we don't need to calculate an equation to know how to throw a rock for example, yet we can think perfectly well how to do it. For probabilities you actually have to calculate the math behind it.

True, but that being said, every (or almost every) casino goer or other gambler is at least aware that odds are not in their favour and that's not the reason they engage in gambling.

The major appeal of casinos, be it physical or online ones, is probably the entertainment and the dopamine rush, while nation-wide lotteries with huge winnings sell people hope and possibility (statistically impossible but still) of changing their lives in an instant without any effort.

[madnessteat]

Personally, I prefer higher odds to win, but smaller winnings, than low odds but big winnings. In my opinion the lottery game has too negligible a chance of being involved.

A few years ago I stopped buying lottery tickets, although I used to buy them from time to time. There were times when I won, but it was ridiculous money, which barely paid back the tickets I bought.

If we talk about the terms offered by OP, I would not risk more than $100.

[pawel7777]

Personally, I prefer higher odds to win, but smaller winnings, than low odds but big winnings. In my opinion the lottery game has too negligible a chance of being involved.

A few years ago I stopped buying lottery tickets, although I used to buy them from time to time. There were times when I won, but it was ridiculous money, which barely paid back the tickets I bought.
...

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I've started a separate topic with a poll relating to national lotteries, if anyone's interested and want to vote and contribute to the discussion, you can find it >here<

[tokeweed]

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I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV?  One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.

Nope, you're teaching EV under the wrong premise.  The question you should be asking everybody is should they be taking the spot everytime it arises despite knowing that they're going to lose 83% of the time.  It's not supposed to be a one off as EV can only be realized over a large sample.

In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot.  Lol.  But let's be real here...

[virasisog]

Personally, I prefer higher odds to win, but smaller winnings, than low odds but big winnings. In my opinion the lottery game has too negligible a chance of being involved.

A few years ago I stopped buying lottery tickets, although I used to buy them from time to time. There were times when I won, but it was ridiculous money, which barely paid back the tickets I bought.
...

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I've started a separate topic with a poll relating to national lotteries, if anyone's interested and want to vote and contribute to the discussion, you can find it >here<

I used to bet with lower odds before but I didn't think it was all worth it. When I tried betting with higher odds I had a better hope of winning. Well, we all have different preferences based on the risk that we could take and the target profit that we want to gain. Some gamblers prefer to win big rewards despite the higher risk but what important is we could handle things as well as our emotions wisely.

[Saint-loup]

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The thing is that we humans are not great dealing with probabilities in our minds, so the casinos and other gambling companies simply use this fact in their favor.

It's not natural to think about probabilities, we are just not good at it. On the other hand for example we are great at thinking in terms of Newtonian physics, we don't need to calculate an equation to know how to throw a rock for example, yet we can think perfectly well how to do it. For probabilities you actually have to calculate the math behind it.

True, but that being said, every (or almost every) casino goer or other gambler is at least aware that odds are not in their favour and that's not the reason they engage in gambling.

The major appeal of casinos, be it physical or online ones, is probably the entertainment and the dopamine rush, while nation-wide lotteries with huge winnings sell people hope and possibility (statistically impossible but still) of changing their lives in an instant without any effort.

Odds are not in favour of the player for any games, even for lottery games. But having a negative EV doesn't mean nobody can make profits, in the same way as positive EV doesn't mean that anyone could get losses. It just mean that thousands of bets at this game, will bring money to the casino. But those bets are usually made by several different players, and some of them could get an insane winning streak while other could get a long losing one, some can win a big bet from a big stake, while other could lose all their bank roll within an all-in bet.
There are lucky players at all games of chance, along with unlucky ones, they are just fewer when EV is negative.

[Vaskiy]

Personally, I prefer higher odds to win, but smaller winnings, than low odds but big winnings. In my opinion the lottery game has too negligible a chance of being involved.

A few years ago I stopped buying lottery tickets, although I used to buy them from time to time. There were times when I won, but it was ridiculous money, which barely paid back the tickets I bought.
...

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I've started a separate topic with a poll relating to national lotteries, if anyone's interested and want to vote and contribute to the discussion, you can find it >here<

I used to bet with lower odds before but I didn't think it was all worth it. When I tried betting with higher odds I had a better hope of winning. Well, we all have different preferences based on the risk that we could take and the target profit that we want to gain. Some gamblers prefer to win big rewards despite the higher risk but what important is we could handle things as well as our emotions wisely.

What does this mean, maybe in the next match going with the higher odds will loss. Because, it is not about the odds it is about the luck. Risk is part of gambling, and without risking it is impossible to experience the outcome of gambling. One thing important is the emotional control, whether we're on the winning/losing streak we should have the emotional control. Only then we were able to have good gambling experience amidst the loss/win.

[jostorres]

The thing is that we humans are not great dealing with probabilities in our minds, so the casinos and other gambling companies simply use this fact in their favor.

It's not natural to think about probabilities, we are just not good at it. On the other hand for example we are great at thinking in terms of Newtonian physics, we don't need to calculate an equation to know how to throw a rock for example, yet we can think perfectly well how to do it. For probabilities you actually have to calculate the math behind it.

That is if we only calculate the probability in our heads but we can always use a calculator to know the exact chance we have. This is necessary so that we will know if it's worth it to continue betting on that game or we should stop fantasizing that huge win because we can only burn more money in the process. We can even lose more than the reward that we are chasing.

There is more than the odds that casino use to attract their customers. That can be the bonuses and other great services that they offer. There is no way that a casino can say that the odds for their game is is lower when in fact it is actually higher. Players will soon find it out and they will be reported.

[jakelyson]

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

I will definitely take this bet. A 17% chance of winning is already big enough for x12 profit. I bet on the lottery on a daily basis, and it is a way smaller chance of winning it. It is just a one-time deal, so I am willing to put in all available gambling funds that I have. Funds can be earned again, but this opportunity comes only once.

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I think gamblers bet on something because they are feeling lucky rather than having better odds. Of course, for a regular bettor, it will always be luck + good odds.

[Mauser]

Personally, I prefer higher odds to win, but smaller winnings, than low odds but big winnings. In my opinion the lottery game has too negligible a chance of being involved.

A few years ago I stopped buying lottery tickets, although I used to buy them from time to time. There were times when I won, but it was ridiculous money, which barely paid back the tickets I bought.

If we talk about the terms offered by OP, I would not risk more than $100.

Lottery is probably the most famous type of gambling that you will find in any country around the world with millions of people playing each week. My grandfather played lottery regularly for more than 40 years and never had any big win, he only lost money with it. That is probably why I am so against lotteries in the first place and try to avoid them as much as possible. Only when there is a big jackpot I am playing, and then is not really because of having a real chance of winning, it's rather the fear of being left out. All my friends play together lottery for the big jackpots and my fear is that if I ever wouldn't join them that they win the jackpot and all become millionaires and I get nothing. There is always the stories from some small towns playing together and a few people not joining them and they have to live in a street where they are the only non millionaire. Playing games that have much higher chance of winning with only a small payout are more appealing to me. It's more satisfying to play games where we can win on a regular basis than chasing a jackpot that we might never win. And if I ever come across a game that has a positive expected value for the gambler I will play as many rounds as possible. If only one round is allowed I would bet as much money as I can afford to lose without feeling bad about it.

[Cryptmuster]

Lottery is probably the most famous type of gambling that you will find in any country around the world with millions of people playing each week. My grandfather played lottery regularly for more than 40 years and never had any big win, he only lost money with it. That is probably why I am so against lotteries in the first place and try to avoid them as much as possible. Only when there is a big jackpot I am playing, and then is not really because of having a real chance of winning, it's rather the fear of being left out. All my friends play together lottery for the big jackpots and my fear is that if I ever wouldn't join them that they win the jackpot and all become millionaires and I get nothing. There is always the stories from some small towns playing together and a few people not joining them and they have to live in a street where they are the only non millionaire. Playing games that have much higher chance of winning with only a small payout are more appealing to me. It's more satisfying to play games where we can win on a regular basis than chasing a jackpot that we might never win. And if I ever come across a game that has a positive expected value for the gambler I will play as many rounds as possible. If only one round is allowed I would bet as much money as I can afford to lose without feeling bad about it.

For the sake of interest, I bought lotteries several times, but this is boring, I have never won, and only lost money, it was no avail. There are those who are constantly playing with the hope of winning Jack Pot, but it looks like an illusion, because there are very few winners and, to be honest, I even doubt that the choice of the winner will without the intervention of the organizers of this lottery. Therefore, I do not see the point of participating in lotteries.

[Moneyprism]

to be honest, i will take the bet because i can get many times what i bet,, and for that bet i will put 10% of my income, it is quite small but i don't want to be too greedy because even though the prize is very big i won't want to take a risk by putting quite a lot of my income on that bet because even if i lose the amount is only 10% of my income and it's not too much and i can let it go

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

I've tried, actually the chances of winning are even at 80% but I still lost, how much more than 17%.
Maybe that's possible if you have a lot of money to lose gambling.

But if you're just going to gamble to grow it and maybe you'll get lucky, I think it's a bit vague and too risky.

[Strongkored]

to be honest, i will take the bet because i can get many times what i bet,, and for that bet i will put 10% of my income, it is quite small but i don't want to be too greedy because even though the prize is very big i won't want to take a risk by putting quite a lot of my income on that bet because even if i lose the amount is only 10% of my income and it's not too much and i can let it go

10% of your income to 10% of your bankroll is quite a difference, and for me 10% of income is big enough to bet on one session bet and I probably wouldn't do that.
Regarding the Op's question whether to bet like that, I answered that I don't know because for me it was just theory and it would be very different when we did it.

[madnessteat]

to be honest, i will take the bet because i can get many times what i bet,, and for that bet i will put 10% of my income, it is quite small but i don't want to be too greedy because even though the prize is very big i won't want to take a risk by putting quite a lot of my income on that bet because even if i lose the amount is only 10% of my income and it's not too much and i can let it go

10% of your income to 10% of your bankroll is quite a difference, and for me 10% of income is big enough to bet on one session bet and I probably wouldn't do that.
Regarding the Op's question whether to bet like that, I answered that I don't know because for me it was just theory and it would be very different when we did it.

In general, people are very gambling creatures by nature and if they see a good offer, they take a risk. I think that if you take into account the condition that the proposed bet can only be made once, many would agree to try their luck. After all, it's not just about the odds and the risks, but also the opportunities. If the opportunity is given only once a gambler obviously will not miss it. I do not know whether it is greed or some other feeling, but it obviously attracts us.

[Betwrong]

~
As in OP, you can only roll once. Still taking it?
~

I would take it, but with a bet size of $2 max. Why not more? Because the probability of losing your bet would be still high, 83% chance of losing, and to have a good chance of taking advantage from those unique conditions, "you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6)", I think we need to make at least 100 rolls.

With that said, even if I was given 100 rolls, I wouldn't risk more money than I could afford to lose, because every dice player knows that finding yourself in a situation when you win only 3-4 times within 100 rolls playing with 17% win chance is easy, right?

[LUCKMCFLY]

The thing is that we humans are not great dealing with probabilities in our minds, so the casinos and other gambling companies simply use this fact in their favor.

It's not natural to think about probabilities, we are just not good at it. On the other hand for example we are great at thinking in terms of Newtonian physics, we don't need to calculate an equation to know how to throw a rock for example, yet we can think perfectly well how to do it. For probabilities you actually have to calculate the math behind it.

That is if we only calculate the probability in our heads but we can always use a calculator to know the exact chance we have. This is necessary so that we will know if it's worth it to continue betting on that game or we should stop fantasizing that huge win because we can only burn more money in the process. We can even lose more than the reward that we are chasing.

There is more than the odds that casino use to attract their customers. That can be the bonuses and other great services that they offer. There is no way that a casino can say that the odds for their game is is lower when in fact it is actually higher. Players will soon find it out and they will be reported.

Well, I have always thought that in casinos, whenever they deal with casino bonuses and promotions, they are based on success, what they will face in the short term, for us players it is something very nice when we see that there are good bonuses, and promotions, we get excited, especially because at some point we think we can get something for free, and newbies think so too, and newbies themselves are always the most excited, each casino can use this strategy as the best for them , but I am one of those who think that it is much better, to attract people with some cunning, that is to say, offer more things like rewards for playing more and loyalty prizes.

Obviously, the marketing strategies and many promotions are those that casinos offer to everyone, and here it must be determined that the most rewarded are the casinos and some other player who has his lucky touch and makes a great profit, in the In the case of stake.com, bitcasino.io, they are casinos that are old and make their players apply the strategies of having a VIP degree, and that is something that makes them family.

[pawel7777]

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In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot.  Lol.  But let's be real here...

The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10.
The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it?