Betting strategy question

[nullama]

~snip~
I believe in that as well, also sometimes I just let myself choose whatever I wanted I mean I don't think too much I am just playing and enjoying the game. Luck sometimes takes place and a little amount of being lucky may bring you success in a game. As I read in this forum, I now know that there's a thin line between being lucky and not being lucky. just have fund, who knows you may be lucky and win a game.

Luck is just the outcome of a single game. You can calculate the math of any gambling game you're playing and you'll see that in the long term the casino will win, always.

If you don't enjoy the game, then I see little point in gambling, because there won't be a massive payoff in the end in terms of money.

[1714958763]

1714958763

[1714958763]

1714958763

[1714958763]

1714958763

[1714958763]

1714958763

[Betwrong]

~

~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

[348Judah]

Winning a bet is not all about the amount being involved or staked down on a particular bet while gambling, it's goes along way either the strategy adopted and the pattern used in playing, it's good enough to see a numbers of strategies and techniques gamblers have shared as their experience which had work for them in one way or the other, but a gambler also need time to study his own unique pattern which may obviously be different from others' and develop it of which this same path is how others have also come up with their own recommended strategies that once worked for them, ifnyoubsense something then make moves.

[AicecreaME]

Winning a bet is not all about the amount being involved or staked down on a particular bet while gambling, it's goes along way either the strategy adopted and the pattern used in playing, it's good enough to see a numbers of strategies and techniques gamblers have shared as their experience which had work for them in one way or the other, but a gambler also need time to study his own unique pattern which may obviously be different from others' and develop it of which this same path is how others have also come up with their own recommended strategies that once worked for them, ifnyoubsense something then make moves.

Indeed. In a player's gambling journey, player develops skills, patterns, and strategies from various experiences they had along the way. They acquire the necessary coping mechanisms to make a win or to recover from a loss. Most of the time, gamblers pick up some sort of pattern from their collective winnings and losses which they incorporate to test and rule out what can be done and what isn't supposed to be included in their betting strategy.

This way, they pinpoint what works for them and what doesn't. Some also incorporate other people's different tips and strategy plan to come up with their own. It's like a trial and error process that could be worth it if ever you'll get the grasp of it. But of course, this should still be done in caution as no strategy is one-solution fits all. Some things might work for them and not for us. It still depends on how you'll utilize the strategy and your situation at hand.

[pawel7777]

~

~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

The part highlighted by you refers to relatively safe investment opportunities. For the 17% single dye roll - I honestly don't know, that's essentially why I started this topic. I feel like I'd probably go with ~25% of the amount defined as "amount I can afford to lose" for the purpose of gambling as defined in the post you've quoted, aka 25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget. There's not much math involved in determining that stake size, it just *feels* right, it won't hurt much if I (likely) lose but still gives a sense of taking a proper advantage of the positive EV bet.

The most "logic" approach would be to go with 9.5% calculated by using the Kelly criterion, but it's just seems a bit low.

/snip/

/snip/

You two are just posting for the sake of posting, aren't you lol

[Betwrong]

~

~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

The part highlighted by you refers to relatively safe investment opportunities. For the 17% single dye roll - I honestly don't know, that's essentially why I started this topic.
~

Yes, it is an interesting topic, and I hope to see more of reasonable replies in this thread.
 

I feel like I'd probably go with ~25% of the amount defined as "amount I can afford to lose" for the purpose of gambling as defined in the post you've quoted, aka 25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget. There's not much math involved in determining that stake size, it just *feels* right, it won't hurt much if I (likely) lose but still gives a sense of taking a proper advantage of the positive EV bet.

I see. Indeed, when we are talking about an "amount we can afford to lose", we must define the period of time. To me personally, "25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget" would be too much for such a bet. But I probably would bet 25% of my daily fun and entertainment budget, because, you are right, with not much math involved, it just feels right for us gamblers to try out a positive EV game.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Strategies are just the calculated outcome...

Not really? Are you just playing around with changing definitions?
Strategy - a plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim.
e.g. Martingale is one of the most popular betting strategies but doesn't have much to do with calculating outcomes.

...
In such situation I'll go with the minimum bet value for the maximum outcome, ...

So if in the set-out scenario there's no defined minimum bet, would you just bet 1 satoshi hoping to earn 11 sats? Why even bother?

...
because few people in the world have that ability to spare money, ...

You're exaggerating a bit. No one in the developed world would go bankrupt or starve if they happened to lose $50 or $100. It could cause some inconvenience but everyone could manage. That's probably also true even for poor countries.

Average people tend to spend beyond their means (i.e. getting expensive cars on finance, buying low-nutrition junk food, paying for subscriptions they don't use etc), but that's a different story.

Although it sounds very strange to you, there are some people who live in my country and it costs them something to get the money, and 100 or even 500 usd if you can raise them a lot, at least so that they can buy their food supplies and basic things. Of course, not all of them are in the same conditions, but the vast majority are, due to the high inflation, to tell you that some people in their base salary is less than 10 USD, especially those who are professionals, the teachers are demanding that they raise their salaries. and apparently the government will not raise anything, in third world countries the problems can be very precarious, sometimes the countries in Europe and the USA are very privileged.

[pawel7777]

...
Although it sounds very strange to you, there are some people who live in my country and it costs them something to get the money, and 100 or even 500 usd if you can raise them a lot, at least so that they can buy their food supplies and basic things. Of course, not all of them are in the same conditions, but the vast majority are, due to the high inflation, to tell you that some people in their base salary is less than 10 USD, especially those who are professionals, the teachers are demanding that they raise their salaries. and apparently the government will not raise anything, in third world countries the problems can be very precarious, sometimes the countries in Europe and the USA are very privileged.

I'm not denying that there is poverty in the world, but you said, quote: "...few people in the world have that ability to spare money...". The "few" is a massive exaggeration. The vast majority of people would spend at least some portion of their money on the things they don't need or things that are not good for them (sweets, junk food, alcohol, tobacco etc), which proves that they indeed have some money to spare.
And even in a dirt-poor country, losing say $5 will not make any significant difference to your life.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Strategies are just the calculated outcome, but we don't know how far the expectation gets fulfilled. It needs luck. In such situation I'll go with the minimum bet value for the maximum outcome, because I've experienced massive losses going for roll above 2 and the dice rolls within 2. Gambling is all about luck and strategies are just a way to keep ourselves positive on the outcome. The strategy that worked for our friend won't be successful for us, which is the reality we need to understand.

There is no way to calculate an outcome in gambling but many are still trying. I guess it can give them a sense of confidence and they think it's better to play this way than just playing the game randomly. Sometimes the expectations can be fulfilled earlier if we are lucky but it can also be fulfilled at a much longer time. We can't end up in more losses if we won't stop or if we will continue to deposit more.

Your strategy is also my strategy as I think it's less risky but avoid those high win chance games as my experience isn't always pleasant on them. I think they are only an illusion for the players to hope and lose more money.

I think that each bettor before sleeping, when he sleeps and wakes up, always thinks about the best and most useful strategy to improve his way of betting, this is something that can be in the mind of any player, however, I have seen that the AI now It is widely used, of course some use some AI tools that allow them to make predictions, I don't know how accurate they are, but if we look at this data they can be much more precise, what I wonder is, it will be that in the future this will be ''Competition for betting platforms?'' Are we facing a possible formula to win all the time? even in sports?

[Eternad]

This topic already received tons of reply for a simple inquiry and most of the new discussion / new post is already off-topic to the one that OP is asking. Maybe it’s time to lock the thread since this topic already have 7 pager for a single question about betting strategy that already discussed on 1 to 2 page of this thread.

[pawel7777]

... I have seen that the AI now It is widely used, of course some use some AI tools that allow them to make predictions, I don't know how accurate they are, but if we look at this data they can be much more precise, what I wonder is, it will be that in the future this will be ''Competition for betting platforms?'' Are we facing a possible formula to win all the time? even in sports?

Nah. As long as the casinos have mathematical advantage - AI won't be a problem. Plus, casinos could also use AI to determine the best rates etc and identify any vulnerabilities in their systems.

To come up with a good strategy, you don't really need AI (defined as something that can "learn" on its own), all you need is a good system of processing and analysing data (i.e. for the sports bets) to help you detect any positive value bets or arbitrage opportunities.

But you gave me the idea of just asking Chat GPT the question from the OP:

Prompt:

If I can bet on a single, non-repetetive dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if I win I get paid x12 of my stake (instead of x6).
What's the best way to determine a stake for such bet, expressed as a percentage of a bankroll

Chat GPT reply:

The best way to determine a stake for such a bet would be to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps to determine the optimal amount to bet in order to maximize your long-term growth rate of your bankroll. The formula is as follows: (bp - (1-b)(1/r)) / b, where b is the probability of winning the bet, p is the payout ratio, and r is the probability of losing the bet. In this case, b would be 1/6, p would be 12, and r would be 5/6. By plugging these numbers into the formula, you can determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet on a single roll of the die.

Well, we already know that.

This topic already received tons of reply for a simple inquiry and most of the new discussion / new post is already off-topic to the one that OP is asking. Maybe it’s time to lock the thread since this topic already have 7 pager for a single question about betting strategy that already discussed on 1 to 2 page of this thread.

So you replied to say there are too many replies heh
I'm not locking it, it will die its natural death eventually. And there's nothing wrong with having side discussions, they could be interesting too.

[nullama]

~snip~
Prompt:

If I can bet on a single, non-repetetive dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if I win I get paid x12 of my stake (instead of x6).
What's the best way to determine a stake for such bet, expressed as a percentage of a bankroll

Chat GPT reply:

The best way to determine a stake for such a bet would be to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps to determine the optimal amount to bet in order to maximize your long-term growth rate of your bankroll. The formula is as follows: (bp - (1-b)(1/r)) / b, where b is the probability of winning the bet, p is the payout ratio, and r is the probability of losing the bet. In this case, b would be 1/6, p would be 12, and r would be 5/6. By plugging these numbers into the formula, you can determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet on a single roll of the die.

Well, we already know that.

Yeah, that's the thing with AI, it's impressive and all, but it's still a bit rough on the edges. It's a bit like an autistic kid, they might know the answer, but they don't know how to express it correctly in a manner that you're expecting.

In this case we see that the AI is not adding anything interesting to the conversation. I think it just focused on the math of it and not on the psychological aspect of it.

[pawel7777]

...
Yeah, that's the thing with AI, it's impressive and all, but it's still a bit rough on the edges. It's a bit like an autistic kid, they might know the answer, but they don't know how to express it correctly in a manner that you're expecting.

In this case we see that the AI is not adding anything interesting to the conversation. I think it just focused on the math of it and not on the psychological aspect of it.

That's true, but even when it comes to pure math, chat GPT can be wrong sometimes. I remember asking it about the probability of winning calculations for the UK's premium bonds, but the answer it gave me didn't seem quite right, so I started to quizz it a little bit more and eventually it just admitted to being wrong and apologised

Moral of the story - be careful when using it to develop any strategies involving real money, as it's just not there yet in terms of reliability.

[madnessteat]

^

I absolutely agree with you. Before the AI can learn to provide fully reliable information to the user, it has to use a huge amount of information to learn. Yes, as of today it has been a very short time for AI to be trained to this level, but I am sure that in a year or two AI will be used everywhere, including in predicting sporting events, as it is a very cool technology.

[LUCKMCFLY]

^

I absolutely agree with you. Before the AI can learn to provide fully reliable information to the user, it has to use a huge amount of information to learn. Yes, as of today it has been a very short time for AI to be trained to this level, but I am sure that in a year or two AI will be used everywhere, including in predicting sporting events, as it is a very cool technology.

There are people who have access to a type of AI where they say they can make predictions, but I really don't know if it's true or not, recently they wrote to me through tg offering me some trading plans with BTC, it caught my attention and I managed to get information that it was an AI that could predict movements, it really caught my attention, I don't know if it's true or not, but it made me very curious, however this is applicable to games of chance, sports and sports betting can be done but I really don't have that information, although I think there must already be many people who use AI to start predicting more I don't know with how much certainty.

[nullama]

~snip~
That's true, but even when it comes to pure math, chat GPT can be wrong sometimes. I remember asking it about the probability of winning calculations for the UK's premium bonds, but the answer it gave me didn't seem quite right, so I started to quizzed it a little bit more and eventually it just admitted to being wrong and apologised

Moral of the story - be careful when using it to develop any strategies involving real money, as it's just not there yet in terms of reliability.

Well, that's true for any source of information.

A person can be telling you a lie, or they might be wrong, etc.

A website might be created with a tool like GPT3, and the content not checked, etc.

Someone might post wrong information to try to persuade you or by a simple mistake, etc.

It doesn't matter if it's an AI or not, you should always confirm the validity of the information from first principles.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

The computation is very attractive having a 17% chance to win 1200% is huge enough considering most dice offer 580% return for 17% chance.  Definitely I will take the bet.  I would allocate 10% or 1/10 of my bankroll to stake for every roll, this way I will have 10 tries to get a win and hope for that 10 tries can hit 1 for a profit. 

Of course, if you are a gambler, you see and think this is an opportunity to win the gamble. Also, as long as a gambler is willing to lose his bet there is no problem in this matter.

But if you are a type of gambler whose decision is somewhat dynamic, all I can say is that he is not suitable for this type of gambling. Because it is only for those willing to take the risk no matter how much it costs, because gamblers like us always think of a positive result.

[Betwrong]

~ It's unclear whether or not the use of AI for predictions can be used to games of chance or sports betting without further data. Before putting your money into anything, it's important to conduct your research and keep an eye out for red flags that might indicate a scam. If you want to make a wise choice, it's best to do some investigating and get some second opinions. It's also likely that plenty of individuals are already making predictions using AI, but knowing that with any degree of accuracy would be challenging. When it comes to your personal finances, you should always err on the side of caution and put your own well-being first.

I can imagine how to use AI for sports betting, but since Chat GPT's database is not updated regularly(in fact it's more than a year old, if I'm nit mistaken), we can't use the AI for that yet. But my question is, how, even theoretically, we can use AI for the games of chance? I mean, it can tell you what part of your bankroll to stake at once to, theoretically, last longer, but in reality your very first bet can be that with the highest multiplier possible, and no AI can tell you for sure that it won't happen.

[klidex]

^

I absolutely agree with you. Before the AI can learn to provide fully reliable information to the user, it has to use a huge amount of information to learn. Yes, as of today it has been a very short time for AI to be trained to this level, but I am sure that in a year or two AI will be used everywhere, including in predicting sporting events, as it is a very cool technology.

I wonder why so many people believe in AL that they can make a bet. Are they unsure of their own predictions or unsure of themselves that they can win a bet without using AL.
So far I still don't believe in anything or even AL for me to be able to make a bet.
I have a principle that whatever the outcome is if it is the result of my own thinking it will be more satisfying and there is no disappointment behind if you lose the bet.
I am the type of person who is very difficult to believe in anything and anyone.

[Mauser]

Winning a bet is not all about the amount being involved or staked down on a particular bet while gambling, it's goes along way either the strategy adopted and the pattern used in playing, it's good enough to see a numbers of strategies and techniques gamblers have shared as their experience which had work for them in one way or the other, but a gambler also need time to study his own unique pattern which may obviously be different from others' and develop it of which this same path is how others have also come up with their own recommended strategies that once worked for them, ifnyoubsense something then make moves.

I agree with you, it makes no sense to try and follow a strategy by someone else that we heard about and was sold to us as a successful gambling strategy. We need to invest our own time and make a decision for ourselves if the strategy suits our playstyle. When it comes to sports betting and casino gambling I would be careful to trust other people who want to sell us their profitable strategy. Just because they made money with it doesn't mean we are going to do the same. It could be that they were lucky in the past and the strategy is not really that good. It also comes down to our own gambling habits and how comfortable we are to stick to one strategy. For me it works best to switch around with different strategies. For example there are days where I blindly follow my martingale strategy, there is no real decision making to be done. When I am tired it's the best strategy for me. And then there are days where I want to be more active and change my strategy.