Betting strategy question

[Docnaster]

Winning a bet is not all about the amount being involved or staked down on a particular bet while gambling, it's goes along way either the strategy adopted and the pattern used in playing, it's good enough to see a numbers of strategies and techniques gamblers have shared as their experience which had work for them in one way or the other, but a gambler also need time to study his own unique pattern which may obviously be different from others' and develop it of which this same path is how others have also come up with their own recommended strategies that once worked for them, ifnyoubsense something then make moves.

I agree with you, it makes no sense to try and follow a strategy by someone else that we heard about and was sold to us as a successful gambling strategy. We need to invest our own time and make a decision for ourselves if the strategy suits our playstyle. When it comes to sports betting and casino gambling I would be careful to trust other people who want to sell us their profitable strategy. Just because they made money with it doesn't mean we are going to do the same. It could be that they were lucky in the past and the strategy is not really that good. It also comes down to our own gambling habits and how comfortable we are to stick to one strategy. For me it works best to switch around with different strategies. For example there are days where I blindly follow my martingale strategy, there is no real decision making to be done. When I am tired it's the best strategy for me. And then there are days where I want to be more active and change my strategy.

It is not that necessary that everyone should develop their own betting strategy
It is not everyone that has the capacity to develop their own strategies but to me what is very important is whichever strategy you adopted from someone should be tested and retested by you to be very sure that it is working for you then you can continue using this strategy. Do not follow any given strategy blindly because someone else won with it.

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[pawel7777]

...

It sounds like you were approached by someone through Telegram who claimed to have access to an AI that can make predictions about trading plans with Bitcoin. I also had the same offer. Very intriguing, indeed!
...

Guys, a thing to consider - if any of you had an access to a reliable tool that could accurately predict market movements (and alike), would you rather put it into action and become rich in a short time, or would you rather start pestering strangers on Telegram and try to sell it to them?
Exactly.

[bettercrypto]

~snip~
I believe in that as well, also sometimes I just let myself choose whatever I wanted I mean I don't think too much I am just playing and enjoying the game. Luck sometimes takes place and a little amount of being lucky may bring you success in a game. As I read in this forum, I now know that there's a thin line between being lucky and not being lucky. just have fund, who knows you may be lucky and win a game.

Luck is just the outcome of a single game. You can calculate the math of any gambling game you're playing and you'll see that in the long term the casino will win, always.

If you don't enjoy the game, then I see little point in gambling, because there won't be a massive payoff in the end in terms of money.

Every winning in gambling is all dependent on luck, this has been the case for decades whether online or physical gambling.

  When you find that you are lucky on the day you play, for sure no matter what games you play in the casino you will win and you will go home with money, the question of luck is that there will be no problem when you take out the money you won in gambling platform you played on? because this is where there are often issues, to be honest.

[LUCKMCFLY]

...

It sounds like you were approached by someone through Telegram who claimed to have access to an AI that can make predictions about trading plans with Bitcoin. I also had the same offer. Very intriguing, indeed!
...

Guys, a thing to consider - if any of you had an access to a reliable tool that could accurately predict market movements (and alike), would you rather put it into action and become rich in a short time, or would you rather start pestering strangers on Telegram and try to sell it to them?
Exactly.

I think that everyone has that answer, and it is to try it and earn quick money, if a person wants to help, they simply tell them how to do it and that's it, without charging any type of subscription for being VIP or special memberships, I think that now everyone takes advantage Because as ChatGPT bots or robots or similar are increasing, they want to do more things with those who know less, it is the classic action of those who "always want to be smart by cheating", when that person or bot still doesn't know if it was a bot, but it had a photo of a lady, it told me that the minimum investment was 50USD, which I told myself, and if it is true? And am I missing an opportunity? but at the same time I said to myself, she doesn't seem like a philanthropist, and since she was demanding money, well, I said to myself: "NO, this is just a newly created business model that looks for people who are not so smart and with some money to cheat", . The sad thing is that I am sure that just as they make people dizzy with that, there are those who fall into the trap, because I am one of those who think that "good things" are not enough, and when they offer you very good things, it is very likely let them be lies and it opens the way for scam, so it should happen with AI bots for casinos, sports betting and even for the same people who want to post here on bitcointalk with AI, making a fool of others.

[pawel7777]

I can imagine how to use AI for sports betting, but since Chat GPT's database is not updated regularly(in fact it's more than a year old, if I'm nit mistaken),we can't use the AI for that yet....

Correct, it cannot (yet) fetch any data from external sources, so it has to rely on the training data "fed" to him by developers. The most recent data is from Sep 2021.

... But my question is, how, even theoretically, we can use AI for the games of chance? I mean, it can tell you what part of your bankroll to stake at once to, theoretically, last longer, but in reality your very first bet can be that with the highest multiplier possible, and no AI can tell you for sure that it won't happen.

It won't be very useful for games with mathematically determined odds, where the house has an edge. But (when it's able to collect data from external sources) it could be good for things like looking for positive EV opportunities on numerous different gambling sites (i.e. with high enough Jackpot and low number of players, the mathematical edge can sway on your side). But it'd probably most useful for gambling with "judgmental" odds, i.e. sports betting, where it could be looking for arbitrage opportunities (but I think we already have that for quite a while) or it could run an advanced analysis on teams performance, past results, patterns etc and could help you find good value bets (i.e. with pay-out rates higher than they should be). Then it could help you decide on the size of the wager for best long-term effects.

The problem is, if such tools will be available to players, bookies will also be using them in order to not get screwed.

[LUCKMCFLY]

~

~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

The part highlighted by you refers to relatively safe investment opportunities. For the 17% single dye roll - I honestly don't know, that's essentially why I started this topic. I feel like I'd probably go with ~25% of the amount defined as "amount I can afford to lose" for the purpose of gambling as defined in the post you've quoted, aka 25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget. There's not much math involved in determining that stake size, it just *feels* right, it won't hurt much if I (likely) lose but still gives a sense of taking a proper advantage of the positive EV bet.

The most "logic" approach would be to go with 9.5% calculated by using the Kelly criterion, but it's just seems a bit low.

This brings to my mind the following, there are some casinos that have investment options, you should know the Betfury casino well that a few years ago gave the option to buy the BFG, but at the same time caused quite a lot of returns in other crypto, including Bitcoin, what do you think about it? Of course, now we have seen that they have some problems, hence a negative opinion of them in their profile, but they are insisting that they open signature campaigns, that they give more movies to the tokens, but currently do you see that this will be profitable? In itself it is a strategy of juice, because in some games the BFG can be posted and apart from that, if they multiply, it gives more profitability, what I think they have failed is that they have not looked for a good exchange, in the long run I think this type of casinos which is a good betting strategy.

I can imagine how to use AI for sports betting, but since Chat GPT's database is not updated regularly(in fact it's more than a year old, if I'm nit mistaken),we can't use the AI for that yet....

Correct, it cannot (yet) fetch any data from external sources, so it has to rely on the training data "fed" to him by developers. The most recent data is from Sep 2021.

... But my question is, how, even theoretically, we can use AI for the games of chance? I mean, it can tell you what part of your bankroll to stake at once to, theoretically, last longer, but in reality your very first bet can be that with the highest multiplier possible, and no AI can tell you for sure that it won't happen.

It won't be very useful for games with mathematically determined odds, where the house has an edge. But (when it's able to collect data from external sources) it could be good for things like looking for positive EV opportunities on numerous different gambling sites (i.e. with high enough Jackpot and low number of players, the mathematical edge can sway on your side). But it'd probably most useful for gambling with "judgmental" odds, i.e. sports betting, where it could be looking for arbitrage opportunities (but I think we already have that for quite a while) or it could run an advanced analysis on teams performance, past results, patterns etc and could help you find good value bets (i.e. with pay-out rates higher than they should be). Then it could help you decide on the size of the wager for best long-term effects.

The problem is, if such tools will be available to players, bookies will also be using them in order to not get screwed.

Well, what I might think and what first occurs to me is that it is as you say, the way that they can use that data, they can get some statistics, which will reveal some type of probabilistic style data so that they can get closer to a prediction, this through the mathematical modeling of some tools, but of course, this is somewhat difficult, this reminds me of the time I saw in the statistics university, when I read in a book that its prologue said that the reason I was in that book was to win the lottery, but even so it is very difficult to get ahead in time, according to telecommunications with signals it is possible to get ahead in time, but only there, in terms of this things can get complicated.

[pawel7777]

This brings to my mind the following, there are some casinos that have investment options, you should know the Betfury casino well that a few years ago gave the option to buy the BFG, but at the same time caused quite a lot of returns in other crypto, including Bitcoin, what do you think about it? ...

I haven't heard about them, to be honest, but I was away from the crypto space for a few years until recently, so still am a bit out of the loop. I'll try to take a look at them in more detail when I have time.
I do like the concept of investing in the bankroll though. But despite having a mathematical advantage, there's always some trust involved, which usually puts people off.

[len01]

~snip~
I believe in that as well, also sometimes I just let myself choose whatever I wanted I mean I don't think too much I am just playing and enjoying the game. Luck sometimes takes place and a little amount of being lucky may bring you success in a game. As I read in this forum, I now know that there's a thin line between being lucky and not being lucky. just have fund, who knows you may be lucky and win a game.

Luck is just the outcome of a single game. You can calculate the math of any gambling game you're playing and you'll see that in the long term the casino will win, always.

If you don't enjoy the game, then I see little point in gambling, because there won't be a massive payoff in the end in terms of money.

Every winning in gambling is all dependent on luck, this has been the case for decades whether online or physical gambling.

  When you find that you are lucky on the day you play, for sure no matter what games you play in the casino you will win and you will go home with money, the question of luck is that there will be no problem when you take out the money you won in gambling platform you played on? because this is where there are often issues, to be honest.

yes indeed in the science of gambling, luck is the main thing and the strategy that brings us closer to that luck.
sometimes a gambler forgets this knowledge and just bets without thinking about the strategy he has to calculate with mathematics. but almost all gamblers always use a strategy to gamble in one of the games to get profit or victory. although in the end it is luck that decides, but if you are good at calculating betting strategies, it will be closer to the luck you will get.

[justdimin]

Every winning in gambling is all dependent on luck, this has been the case for decades whether online or physical gambling.

  When you find that you are lucky on the day you play, for sure no matter what games you play in the casino you will win and you will go home with money, the question of luck is that there will be no problem when you take out the money you won in gambling platform you played on? because this is where there are often issues, to be honest.

yes indeed in the science of gambling, luck is the main thing and the strategy that brings us closer to that luck.
sometimes a gambler forgets this knowledge and just bets without thinking about the strategy he has to calculate with mathematics. but almost all gamblers always use a strategy to gamble in one of the games to get profit or victory. although in the end it is luck that decides, but if you are good at calculating betting strategies, it will be closer to the luck you will get.

I agree about the luck but for the strategy? I think it depends only on certain games. It can be applied on poker, blackjack, on some other card games and also in sports betting. For someone who is serious about winning and making a profit then there is no way they can forget adding a strategy to each of their games but there are some who just wants to test if how lucky they are, and there are newbies who don't know if what strategy is good to use so they just play the game directly.

Other than calculating the strategy, I think it's best to also calculate the odds or our chances of winning, so that we can decide if it's worth the risk or not.

[ethereumhunter]

This brings to my mind the following, there are some casinos that have investment options, you should know the Betfury casino well that a few years ago gave the option to buy the BFG, but at the same time caused quite a lot of returns in other crypto, including Bitcoin, what do you think about it? ...

I haven't heard about them, to be honest, but I was away from the crypto space for a few years until recently, so still am a bit out of the loop. I'll try to take a look at them in more detail when I have time.
I do like the concept of investing in the bankroll though. But despite having a mathematical advantage, there's always some trust involved, which usually puts people off.

Apart from Betfury, you have another casino option, namely Owl.games, where you also invest in Owl tokens which can give you additional Owl or BUSD tokens. This is interesting because you can try both casinos and see which is more profitable for you.

Betfury and Owl have their advantages and disadvantages, so you should choose one based on your research. But you can also choose both to find out. And only use the money you can afford if you want to invest in the two casino tokens.

[Beparanf]

I agree about the luck but for the strategy? I think it depends only on certain games. It can be applied on poker, blackjack, on some other card games and also in sports betting. For someone who is serious about winning and making a profit then there is no way they can forget adding a strategy to each of their games but there are some who just wants to test if how lucky they are, and there are newbies who don't know if what strategy is good to use so they just play the game directly.

Other than calculating the strategy, I think it's best to also calculate the odds or our chances of winning, so that we can decide if it's worth the risk or not.

Most of the game provides the theoretical RTP but calculating the odds of winning on games that is pure luck based like slots, dice, plinko and etc is still nonsense at all because hitting the winning bet is still based on chances despite you have the advantage with the odds. I do understand that we should balance the odds of winning to the potential profit when gambling but there’s still no way for us to determine when we will win to guarantee profit.

I think playing without doing some calculations and using normal bets is the best strategy to enjoy gambling on those luck based games.

[nullama]

~snip~
I think playing without doing some calculations and using normal bets is the best strategy to enjoy gambling on those luck based games.

Yeah, I think so to.

At the end of the day the casino always will have better odds, so you either stop gambling forever after a win, or you simply treat it as some entertainment.

As long as you don't put more money that you decided beforehand, it's all good.

[Betwrong]

... But my question is, how, even theoretically, we can use AI for the games of chance? I mean, it can tell you what part of your bankroll to stake at once to, theoretically, last longer, but in reality your very first bet can be that with the highest multiplier possible, and no AI can tell you for sure that it won't happen.

It won't be very useful for games with mathematically determined odds, where the house has an edge. But (when it's able to collect data from external sources) it could be good for things like looking for positive EV opportunities on numerous different gambling sites (i.e. with high enough Jackpot and low number of players, the mathematical edge can sway on your side).

Yes, it could be, but in reality, if using an AI for that you would likely to end up on a scam site with very favorable odds, but no intention to pay you out ever.

Another problem with positive EV games is that you need to make many millions of bets to really take advantage of that.

But it'd probably most useful for gambling with "judgmental" odds, i.e. sports betting, where it could be looking for arbitrage opportunities (but I think we already have that for quite a while) or it could run an advanced analysis on teams performance, past results, patterns etc and could help you find good value bets (i.e. with pay-out rates higher than they should be). Then it could help you decide on the size of the wager for best long-term effects.

The problem is, if such tools will be available to players, bookies will also be using them in order to not get screwed.

Yeah, bookies and other gamblers too. And this will change the odds in such a way that you will need to risk $100 in order to potentially win $5 with a 94% win chance. Sounds familiar? Yeah, those are the odds for a dice game.

[Inwestour]

Most of the game provides the theoretical RTP but calculating the odds of winning on games that is pure luck based like slots, dice, plinko and etc is still nonsense at all because hitting the winning bet is still based on chances despite you have the advantage with the odds. I do understand that we should balance the odds of winning to the potential profit when gambling but there’s still no way for us to determine when we will win to guarantee profit.

I think playing without doing some calculations and using normal bets is the best strategy to enjoy gambling on those luck based games.

In gambling, it is too difficult to talk about guaranteeing a win, perhaps even impossible, since in any case there is a factor of luck.

Even if it's not dice or roulette, luck still plays a big role. In the bet, all the same, it depends more on the player who chooses a certain event, but in events it also very often happens that something unpredictable can significantly affect the outcome.

For example, look at yesterday's Real Madrid match, how many things happened, the goalkeeper was injured before the game, they scored a goal for themselves and did not score a penalty. It definitely influenced the outcome of the event and it was a big setback for the team and for everyone who bet on Real, so luck still plays a role in gambling for everyone.

[BobK71]

Winning a bet is not all about the amount being involved or staked down on a particular bet while gambling, it's goes along way either the strategy adopted and the pattern used in playing, it's good enough to see a numbers of strategies and techniques gamblers have shared as their experience which had work for them in one way or the other, but a gambler also need time to study his own unique pattern which may obviously be different from others' and develop it of which this same path is how others have also come up with their own recommended strategies that once worked for them, ifnyoubsense something then make moves.

I agree with you, it makes no sense to try and follow a strategy by someone else that we heard about and was sold to us as a successful gambling strategy. We need to invest our own time and make a decision for ourselves if the strategy suits our playstyle. When it comes to sports betting and casino gambling I would be careful to trust other people who want to sell us their profitable strategy. Just because they made money with it doesn't mean we are going to do the same. It could be that they were lucky in the past and the strategy is not really that good. It also comes down to our own gambling habits and how comfortable we are to stick to one strategy. For me it works best to switch around with different strategies. For example there are days where I blindly follow my martingale strategy, there is no real decision making to be done. When I am tired it's the best strategy for me. And then there are days where I want to be more active and change my strategy.

It is not that necessary that everyone should develop their own betting strategy
It is not everyone that has the capacity to develop their own strategies but to me what is very important is whichever strategy you adopted from someone should be tested and retested by you to be very sure that it is working for you then you can continue using this strategy. Do not follow any given strategy blindly because someone else won with it.

Gambling requires strategy but it must be modified as needed. Applying the same strategy is unlikely to produce the expected results. Also, since it depends on luck, the strategy may not work very well. It is good if you can make your own strategy, but other's strategy must be well researched. How reasonable that strategy is should be seen at a loss. I think in some gambling 50 percent win based on luck and 50 percent depends on strategy and your intelligence.

[madnessteat]

^

Even though I have been gambling for a long time, I have not been able to find a single strategy that could bring profit on a regular basis. In gambling as well as in sports betting a lot depends on luck and I am sure only that if you do not favor the luck during the gaming session, no matter how professional you would be and what strategy you would use, you will just lose your money.

[Desmong]

Everyone of us should have our own betting strategy that would determine how we bet and make winnings.
There are some strategies that will work for a while giving us some profits and later stop making winnings for us.
We need to work on our strategies so that we can always modify it to help us make consistent profits from casinos.

[KTChampions]

Gambling requires strategy but it must be modified as needed. Applying the same strategy is unlikely to produce the expected results. Also, since it depends on luck, the strategy may not work very well. It is good if you can make your own strategy, but other's strategy must be well researched. How reasonable that strategy is should be seen at a loss. I think in some gambling 50 percent win based on luck and 50 percent depends on strategy and your intelligence.

So you think that there can be profitable (non-profitable strategies are not the subject of discussion, since obviously no one is interested) strategies? It seems to me that if the bookmaker/casino has not made a mistake anywhere (in the software, in the set odds, etc.), then no strategy will change the fact that the advantage is not on the side of the player.

[Lida93]

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

83% chance of losing that's a lot of unfavourable chance compared to the 17% chance of probability. Like no sane person would want to put in a good amount of cash for this as the chances of winning is far way too slim despite the what you have to profit in if you're lucky to win, but then,how do you know you would be lucky.
I think on a scale of 1-100 I'll put 10% of my money for such gamble for it's too risky to be tempted place a huge bet on it.

[pawel7777]

Yes, it could be, but in reality, if using an AI for that you would likely to end up on a scam site with very favorable odds, but no intention to pay you out ever.

Easy fix, we could just filter out untrusted sites, or instruct it to only use whitelisted ones.

Another problem with positive EV games is that you need to make many millions of bets to really take advantage of that.

Depends on what kind of bets are we talking about I guess. But yeah, generally speaking you'd need a large number of bets for your average profit/loss to be in line with expected value. Which doesn't mean you can't be profitable in just a few bets.

Side note: sometimes millions bets may not be enough. Looking i.e. at the BitVest's stats even after 4.7 billions bets, their profit is only at 47.6% of EV (assuming those stats are correct).