Betting strategy question

[pawel7777]

83% chance of losing that's a lot of unfavourable chance compared to the 17% chance of probability. Like no sane person would want to put in a good amount of cash for this as the chances of winning is far way too slim despite the what you have to profit in if you're lucky to win, but then,how do you know you would be lucky.
I think on a scale of 1-100 I'll put 10% of my money for such gamble for it's too risky to be tempted place a huge bet on it.

Well, that's the point of this topic, to figure out a way to determine the sensible stake for such bet. The only non-emotional approach is probably just to use kelly criterion which suggests the optimal would be 9.5% of your bankroll.
So your 10% call seems spot on 

[KTChampions]

~
Side note: sometimes millions bets may not be enough. Looking i.e. at the BitVest's stats even after 4.7 billions bets, their profit is only at 47.6% of EV (assuming those stats are correct).

Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.

[Newlifebtc]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

[nullama]

~snip~
Do you know that some people think that the best way of making or winning a gambling is to follow some people step by gambling winnings from a personal idea and some people does not no matter all these kind of gambling is base on a luck from the person not as a result of strategies or betting

Well, if the person is completely clueless, then just copying someone smart might at least reduce the odds of them losing everything.

For example, a smart person might be betting at a game with lower odds against him, whereas the clueless person would still bet on a machine with horrible odds.

So, I guess they might have something going on there...

[AicecreaME]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Some people have their very own strategies and techniques in gambling even before they achieve a winning. Some people are smart enough to compose and think about various ways to win without relying on the knowledge of other people, but merely relying on their knowledge, skills, and experiences. Although there are also many people who come up with innovated strategies from those existing ones and I think there's nothing really wrong with it as long as they crafted the idea of the technique improving and modifying the current ones based on their creativity and critical thinking skills.

[348Judah]

~snip~
Do you know that some people think that the best way of making or winning a gambling is to follow some people step by gambling winnings from a personal idea and some people does not no matter all these kind of gambling is base on a luck from the person not as a result of strategies or betting

Well, if the person is completely clueless, then just copying someone smart might at least reduce the odds of them losing everything.

For example, a smart person might be betting at a game with lower odds against him, whereas the clueless person would still bet on a machine with horrible odds.

So, I guess they might have something going on there...

I wouldn't but the idea of copying the entire betting ideas of a gambler and directly applying it without making adjustments before going further, you can only leverage on their idea and form out your own strategy to bet the same game, odd sometimes can be misleading but if you're experienced enough in dealing with it handlings then you can maneuver your way to use the odds to work perfectly as for you and not against your winnings provided that you come with something new from the strategy used.

[pawel7777]

Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.

This particular site has an option to invest, so I don't imagine they would reduce HE as a promotion toll, as they'd need to pre-agree such move with all the investors first, which is not feasible.
But maybe the "profit" figure is indeed stated after deducting some other expenses (i.e. referral commission) and that's why it's lower than it should be. But that would probably be accounted for on DiceSites.
I'd ask in their ANN thread, but it's no longer monitored by admins.

Other similar sire, Bustadice also is a bit off in the EV/Profit ratio, which stands at 82% after over 3 billions bets.

I think it's kind of expected for a low-edge games to have big swings i profitability. Max winnings settings also plays big part here, if you set it too high, if someone happens to win big, it could take a very long time to bring the profit close to the EV.

[madnessteat]

Everyone of us should have our own betting strategy that would determine how we bet and make winnings.
There are some strategies that will work for a while giving us some profits and later stop making winnings for us.
We need to work on our strategies so that we can always modify it to help us make consistent profits from casinos.

Do you know that some people think that the best way of making or winning a gambling is to follow some people step by gambling winnings from a personal idea and some people does not no matter all these kind of gambling is base on a luck from the person not as a result of strategies or betting

What kind of consistent casino profits are you talking about if in the long run almost any gambler is going to lose money, unless of course he is one of the lucky ones who can win the jackpot?
In my entire conscious life I have only met two people who could make money from sports betting and they were constantly under some kind of pressure from the outside. Earning money in gambling is much harder than the average job and it takes more than a dozen liters to perfect your strategy.

[jostorres]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Some people have their very own strategies and techniques in gambling even before they achieve a winning. Some people are smart enough to compose and think about various ways to win without relying on the knowledge of other people, but merely relying on their knowledge, skills, and experiences. Although there are also many people who come up with innovated strategies from those existing ones and I think there's nothing really wrong with it as long as they crafted the idea of the technique improving and modifying the current ones based on their creativity and critical thinking skills.

If we are a starter, we don't have our own strategy yet. Like me when I started playing dice, I seek help from my other co-dicers if what strategies are good to use. Luckily I've made a lot of friends there and they never hesitate to teach me. Until now I still use the strategy that my co-dicers gave to me and I can say that it has a nice winning rate.

I am not active anymore on that dice site and I already lost contact to my co-dicers but it feels that they are still here with me whenever I use their strategy. Many gambling sites right now can come up with an existing strategy. I guess this is built for the newbies to up the level of their gameplay because sometimes playing randomly is kinda pointless and risky.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Some people have their very own strategies and techniques in gambling even before they achieve a winning. Some people are smart enough to compose and think about various ways to win without relying on the knowledge of other people, but merely relying on their knowledge, skills, and experiences. Although there are also many people who come up with innovated strategies from those existing ones and I think there's nothing really wrong with it as long as they crafted the idea of the technique improving and modifying the current ones based on their creativity and critical thinking skills.

If we are a starter, we don't have our own strategy yet. Like me when I started playing dice, I seek help from my other co-dicers if what strategies are good to use. Luckily I've made a lot of friends there and they never hesitate to teach me. Until now I still use the strategy that my co-dicers gave to me and I can say that it has a nice winning rate.

I am not active anymore on that dice site and I already lost contact to my co-dicers but it feels that they are still here with me whenever I use their strategy. Many gambling sites right now can come up with an existing strategy. I guess this is built for the newbies to up the level of their gameplay because sometimes playing randomly is kinda pointless and risky.

Not just pointless and risky, it is actually direction-less, and nothing is more confusing and frustrating than this.
When I started gambling, I didn't know any gambler, I started all by myself, I did a lot of guess and errors, many days, I always end up frustrated each time I picked up my phone and decided to gamble,  and this was due to the fact that I lacked strategies.
But every thing began to change, and gambling became more fun when I started connecting and gaining ideas from other gamblers on this forum.

[carlfebz2]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Some people have their very own strategies and techniques in gambling even before they achieve a winning. Some people are smart enough to compose and think about various ways to win without relying on the knowledge of other people, but merely relying on their knowledge, skills, and experiences. Although there are also many people who come up with innovated strategies from those existing ones and I think there's nothing really wrong with it as long as they crafted the idea of the technique improving and modifying the current ones based on their creativity and critical thinking skills.

If we are a starter, we don't have our own strategy yet. Like me when I started playing dice, I seek help from my other co-dicers if what strategies are good to use. Luckily I've made a lot of friends there and they never hesitate to teach me. Until now I still use the strategy that my co-dicers gave to me and I can say that it has a nice winning rate.

I am not active anymore on that dice site and I already lost contact to my co-dicers but it feels that they are still here with me whenever I use their strategy. Many gambling sites right now can come up with an existing strategy. I guess this is built for the newbies to up the level of their gameplay because sometimes playing randomly is kinda pointless and risky.

Not just pointless and risky, it is actually direction-less, and nothing is more confusing and frustrating than this.
When I started gambling, I didn't know any gambler, I started all by myself, I did a lot of guess and errors, many days, I always end up frustrated each time I picked up my phone and decided to gamble,  and this was due to the fact that I lacked strategies.
But every thing began to change, and gambling became more fun when I started connecting and gaining ideas from other gamblers on this forum.

Playing gambling should really be for the sake of fun but it cant really be avoided for you to be that impulsive and get enraged considering that losing money is really that not giving a good feeling which it would

really be just that normal to have those kind of approach and reaction.We do normally seek out for some strategy because we do really have in mind that this would really be giving out that advantage but
it is not specially when dealing with luck based games.For strategic ones then it would be applicable but most of the time it wont really be that much 100% guaranteed.
It all matters with luck.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Some people have their very own strategies and techniques in gambling even before they achieve a winning. Some people are smart enough to compose and think about various ways to win without relying on the knowledge of other people, but merely relying on their knowledge, skills, and experiences. Although there are also many people who come up with innovated strategies from those existing ones and I think there's nothing really wrong with it as long as they crafted the idea of the technique improving and modifying the current ones based on their creativity and critical thinking skills.

If we are a starter, we don't have our own strategy yet. Like me when I started playing dice, I seek help from my other co-dicers if what strategies are good to use. Luckily I've made a lot of friends there and they never hesitate to teach me. Until now I still use the strategy that my co-dicers gave to me and I can say that it has a nice winning rate.

I am not active anymore on that dice site and I already lost contact to my co-dicers but it feels that they are still here with me whenever I use their strategy. Many gambling sites right now can come up with an existing strategy. I guess this is built for the newbies to up the level of their gameplay because sometimes playing randomly is kinda pointless and risky.

Not just pointless and risky, it is actually direction-less, and nothing is more confusing and frustrating than this.
When I started gambling, I didn't know any gambler, I started all by myself, I did a lot of guess and errors, many days, I always end up frustrated each time I picked up my phone and decided to gamble,  and this was due to the fact that I lacked strategies.
But every thing began to change, and gambling became more fun when I started connecting and gaining ideas from other gamblers on this forum.

Playing gambling should really be for the sake of fun but it cant really be avoided for you to be that impulsive and get enraged considering that losing money is really that not giving a good feeling which it would

really be just that normal to have those kind of approach and reaction.We do normally seek out for some strategy because we do really have in mind that this would really be giving out that advantage but
it is not specially when dealing with luck based games.For strategic ones then it would be applicable but most of the time it wont really be that much 100% guaranteed.
It all matters with luck.

Yeah, you are right, gambling should really be for fun, but like you said, there are times when one can not help it but try to make good profit out of it, and this is something that is common with every gambler out there, no single gambler is immune to this, except those who already made a whole lots of money and only looking for where and how to lavish and waste it.

Games that are based on pure luck requires no strategy, that is absolutely true, this is more reason why I try to avoid such games, since I consider myself not really lucky when it comes to things that would have me depend only on luck, I personally play games that require some level of strategy to win, strategy plus luck actually, since strategy still requires luck.

[pawel7777]

... in the long run almost any gambler is going to lose money, unless of course he is one of the lucky ones who can win the jackpot?

That's no-brainer, but surprisingly a lot of people here think that somehow it's possible to come up with a "winning strategy" for games with a mathematical edge on the side of the casino. The only way to be profitable in such games is pure luck. Simple as.

To have a true "winning strategy" means to shift the edge to your side, be it by counting cards in BJ, or taking advantage of high-cumulation jackpots.

In my entire conscious life I have only met two people who could make money from sports betting and they were constantly under some kind of pressure from the outside. Earning money in gambling is much harder than the average job and it takes more than a dozen liters to perfect your strategy.

Gambling (of any sort) as a main source of income is probably the worst and most stressful lifestyle one could choose. Even if somehow you manage to get consistent profits, there's always the sense of uncertainty creeping up, as well as other risks i.e. of being banned/limited by gambling sites.

[KTChampions]

Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.

This particular site has an option to invest, so I don't imagine they would reduce HE as a promotion toll, as they'd need to pre-agree such move with all the investors first, which is not feasible.
But maybe the "profit" figure is indeed stated after deducting some other expenses (i.e. referral commission) and that's why it's lower than it should be. But that would probably be accounted for on DiceSites.
I'd ask in their ANN thread, but it's no longer monitored by admins.

Other similar sire, Bustadice also is a bit off in the EV/Profit ratio, which stands at 82% after over 3 billions bets.

I think it's kind of expected for a low-edge games to have big swings i profitability. Max winnings settings also plays big part here, if you set it too high, if someone happens to win big, it could take a very long time to bring the profit close to the EV.

No fluctuations (large gains or losses of players) can matter over such a long distance.
As for investments, here is the thread: Snipie's gambling investment test In it, one of the forum participants describes his experience, and although he was an investor in one of the casinos, no one asked him (like the entire pool of investors) about holding bonus promotions. And there somewhere inside the thread describes the period when he suffered from these bonus promotions (players won a lot).

[LUCKMCFLY]

AI can be a useful tool, we all know the reach of ChaGPT so far, I read about OpenIA that they were making a much better version of chatgpt, which will now be much better and have more impact on what we would call better version than what already they've shown us, I would imagine that one of those things may have been at least updated with the 2022 data, it would be great if they could put everything aside, and they could make predictions with at least the first quarter of this 2023 to really disappoint us with what they can give us, that occurs to me, sure, I'm not sure, but it would be a great predictive tool.

[BitcoinPanther]

AI can be a useful tool, we all know the reach of ChaGPT so far, I read about OpenIA that they were making a much better version of chatgpt, which will now be much better and have more impact on what we would call better version than what already they've shown us, I would imagine that one of those things may have been at least updated with the 2022 data, it would be great if they could put everything aside, and they could make predictions with at least the first quarter of this 2023 to really disappoint us with what they can give us, that occurs to me, sure, I'm not sure, but it would be a great predictive tool.

It can be a useful tool for historic data, but for analyzing future events such as sport betting, I do not think it can be in compare with human minds that knows the ins and out of the sports he is betting with. And with the data being obsolete, It would be the worst decision in using an AI to predict an outcome of a sports.

... in the long run almost any gambler is going to lose money, unless of course he is one of the lucky ones who can win the jackpot?

That's no-brainer, but surprisingly a lot of people here think that somehow it's possible to come up with a "winning strategy" for games with a mathematical edge on the side of the casino. The only way to be profitable in such games is pure luck. Simple as.

True in a game of random result, it is the pure luck that determines the outcome but if we don't stop gambling when we are winning then, we wouldn't say that it is profit since gambling in the long run is proven to end in a lose.

To have a true "winning strategy" means to shift the edge to your side, be it by counting cards in BJ, or taking advantage of high-cumulation jackpots.

I believe there is no winning strategy in gambling that is planned to run in a long session except to quit while ahead.

In my entire conscious life I have only met two people who could make money from sports betting and they were constantly under some kind of pressure from the outside. Earning money in gambling is much harder than the average job and it takes more than a dozen liters to perfect your strategy.

Gambling (of any sort) as a main source of income is probably the worst and most stressful lifestyle one could choose. Even if somehow you manage to get consistent profits, there's always the sense of uncertainty creeping up, as well as other risks i.e. of being banned/limited by gambling sites.

I highly agree if you are the player, but if you are the one who owns the house, in most cases, would be the good source of main income.

[pawel7777]

...
I highly agree if you are the player, but if you are the one who owns the house, in most cases, would be the good source of main income.

Hmm, that kind of brings up a question: If the mathematical edge is on your side  (i.e. you own the casino), is it still gambling? In a way, your profit is still dependent on the luck factor even know you're likely to be in green in the long run.

But yeah, if you have a full-blown, established casino with a lot of drunk players - you'll be doing great. But things are not always that rosy i.e. for the ones invested in the sites' bankrolls (like some bitcoin dice sites still offer), with a small HE it can take a very long time to make a profit.

[len01]

I agree about the luck but for the strategy? I think it depends only on certain games. It can be applied on poker, blackjack, on some other card games and also in sports betting. For someone who is serious about winning and making a profit then there is no way they can forget adding a strategy to each of their games but there are some who just wants to test if how lucky they are, and there are newbies who don't know if what strategy is good to use so they just play the game directly.

Other than calculating the strategy, I think it's best to also calculate the odds or our chances of winning, so that we can decide if it's worth the risk or not.

this statement is more about the strategy of calculating the odds that we will get on sports betting.
actually sports betting doesn't require a strategy that is too complicated when we can see the odds we will choose. but we have to remember that in sports betting low odds are not guaranteed to win, sometimes low odds are like misleading.

on betting poker, blackjack and roulette, today I tried again to apply the martingale strategy to 2 games, namely blackjack and roulette.
In the game of blackjack, I managed to use the martingale strategy, but in the game of roulette, I failed to run out of funds after several consecutive losses.
I concluded that it would be easier and more promising to use the martingale strategy in the game of blackjack. if you want to use this strategy in roulette, you really have to have a big budget.
but if my conclusion is wrong, please let me know.

[Betwrong]

Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.

This particular site has an option to invest, so I don't imagine they would reduce HE as a promotion toll, as they'd need to pre-agree such move with all the investors first, which is not feasible.
But maybe the "profit" figure is indeed stated after deducting some other expenses (i.e. referral commission) and that's why it's lower than it should be. But that would probably be accounted for on DiceSites.
I'd ask in their ANN thread, but it's no longer monitored by admins.

Other similar sire, Bustadice also is a bit off in the EV/Profit ratio, which stands at 82% after over 3 billions bets.

I think it's kind of expected for a low-edge games to have big swings i profitability. Max winnings settings also plays big part here, if you set it too high, if someone happens to win big, it could take a very long time to bring the profit close to the EV.

To be honest, I din't expect that, and I'm very surprised that after billions of bets made on a site, we can have those numbers. How much is enough then? Trillions?

I do think they deducted some expenses when calculating their "Profit", and those expenses were big. Otherwise I don't know how to explain explain such a big deviation from the EV. It should be less than 1% after 100 million of bets, from what I know.

[klidex]

on betting poker, blackjack and roulette, today I tried again to apply the martingale strategy to 2 games, namely blackjack and roulette.
In the game of blackjack, I managed to use the martingale strategy, but in the game of roulette, I failed to run out of funds after several consecutive losses.
I concluded that it would be easier and more promising to use the martingale strategy in the game of blackjack. if you want to use this strategy in roulette, you really have to have a big budget.
but if my conclusion is wrong, please let me know.

I have also used the maringale strategy in blackjack and roulette, but I use it more often in roulette because it can provide even greater profits.
And as you said, it is true that martingale requires a budget or money to bet more compared to using other strategies, but the amount of money needed can make us get bigger profits than the money we spend.
Maybe there are also a lot of gamblers out there who use this strategy because it has proven to be successful if they can survive and believe they can have luck by winning one of the games.
Of course there is nothing wrong with what you have said and I agree with that.