Betting strategy question

[Jawhead999]

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

They just want to try their luck and to have an experience to play in the other games, after they found a gambling game where they're interested and mastered, they will stick with that's game. Most people will choose sports betting because you're have full control over your bet, so it's 100% depends on your analysis and decision. Gambling to make money and break the past record are really wrong, you need to have control and manage your emotion.

[xSkylarx]

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

They just want to try their luck and to have an experience to play in the other games, after they found a gambling game where they're interested and mastered, they will stick with that's game. Most people will choose sports betting because you're have full control over your bet, so it's 100% depends on your analysis and decision. Gambling to make money and break the past record are really wrong, you need to have control and manage your emotion.

There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

[nullama]

~snip~
There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

Yeah, but the luck really ends up being considered in the odds.

So, if you're able to estimate the odds better than the casino will make you better off.

That's assuming you keep playing for a long period of time though.

[Fredomago]

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

Well, it's because they want to win some money from gambling that makes them continue to gamble in many gambling games. And that will always happen because gambling can tempt them to continue playing and win money.

That's what makes many gamblers addicted because the temptation of the gambling game seems to be calling them to keep playing. But if people can limit themselves not to play gambling for too long or often, they will not be tempted and can leave gambling.

Setting limitations might help to avoid losing a lot, though temptations is really tough to beat when you already find yourself engaged with gambling, the lust to keep on trying to recreate strategy that might work and let you make some decent winnings. But, the chance is the same as casino always has the advantages, especially those who play around in the long process.

Betting strategy and all those ideas are mostly common with gamblers who really wanted to win and extend their stay.

Either casino or sports gambling, there are a strategy that gamblers believe that may work for them and will bring the win that they desired to earn.

[temple]

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

That is false

No, it's not.

It is, unless you call winning to be willing to bet billions to win the initial bet a winning strategy. In other words, you bet $1 initially and as you encounter losing streaks you have to keep doubling and doubling ad infinitum because the longer term the more likely you are to encounter extremely improbable losing streaks.

In your mental experiment you are missing something else: infinite time.

You don't say! Really?! Thanks for your wisdom and for letting us know. Keep it up!

Same here, keep us up to date with your genius thought experiments.

Getting lost in pure theory when we talk about these topics might not make any practical sense. You are of course right when you say that infinite time is required as well, but in the real world time won't be the issue. I guess you can role the dice several thousand times a day if you want.

I just did a quick google search and although I can't verify, this source says that 32 times consecutive words were recorded in an American casino.

Now if we take an initial amount of $1, you would have to bet 4.294.967.295 billion in order to win back that initial amount. I would say if you are a guy with deep pockets and you have a very unlucky day, you could be sitting at that table for just 60 minutes in order to try and win you dollar back by placing 4.3 billion on a color!

My advice would be to just play Mega Millions: the chance of winning is 0.000000330496188800575% whereas the chance of losing 32 times in a row in roulette is 0.000000009697304376323%

Some interesting numbers!

What you more often read are losing streaks of around 15. I think that's like a decade ago and I played for cents with a friend just to try it out and we had something like 11 or 12 consecutive red or so against us. But it was an online casino and we thought we just got scammed

[len01]

There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

in sports betting maybe the analysis will not be 100% correct and it still depends on our luck. but at least we do an analysis before choosing which team will win, it will bring us closer to that luck.
it is impossible for us to bet on sports betting only following low odds that usually win but not necessarily win. so we need to do this analysis and sometimes have to mix analysis and strategy to get bigger profits.
so the conclusion is that luck will be closer to us when we analyze before making a decision to choose a team that is worthy of our choosing.

[Saint-loup]

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

Correct, if the payout for correctly guessing the dice roll is x12 of your stake, while the odds of winning are 1 in 6, then the expected value can be calculated as follows:

EV = (1/6) * 12 - (5/6) * 1 = 1 - 5/6 = 1/6

The positive expected value suggests that over the long term, you would be expected to make a profit by taking this bet. However, in the short term, there is a high likelihood that you will lose your bet.

It's not the good EV calculation for me because x12 is usually used in the same way as @12.00 in decimal odds. For example at dice game or coin toss you say you are paid x2 if you win, you don't say you're paid x1. It means your stake back is usually included in the winnings while it's not a winning.
Then to get the EV of the game you need to do instead :
EV = (1/6) * 11 - (5/6) * 1 = 11/6 - 5/6 = 6/6 = 1

It means you will win $1 on average each time you bet $1 at this game. That's a +100% ROI.

If you want to include the stake in the calculations then it is :
EV = (1/6) * 12 - (6/6) * 1 = 2 - 1 = 1

Because you lose your stake every time you play and you get it back when you win, along with your winnings.

[SquallLeonhart]

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

Even in repetitive betting environment, I tried with martingale but I was unable to finish up my betting profitable. I have experiences of trying with only 10% chances for profits with higher multipliers still nothing worked for me. These all happened only in highly reputed crypto casino but at the end of the day, house was able to beat me.

For a single bet, even if you try with lesser multiplier, I am sure that you will be losing. If you go for martingale (this is not the case here still for discussion purposes I assume multiply betting is allowed) then in short run you may able to recover your losses and if you extend then you may lose all your capital for sure.

[BitcoinAccepted]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

I've never tried Martingale strategy on sports betting, I've only used it a couple of time on Casino games.
I personally do not think that this betting strategy would be good on sport betting, since like you already explained, sports is not an immediate result showing kind of game, its a game where as after betting, you have to wait for some time to see what the results is or are, Using a Martingale strategy for such kind of games really does not make any sense, and it would just make the strategy really boring to use.

Martingale is best suited for casino games where things happen really fast, where you can decide whether to still use the strategy in your next game or not in just a matter of seconds.

[nullama]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

The thing is that at the end of the day, you'll either run out of money, or you'll hit the maximum betting.

That's the problem, that the more gambles you make, the amount of money you're gambling increases a lot, for an ever smaller reward (considered as a percentage of what you bet).

I think it's one of those things that sound good on paper, but then if you do it without reading the fine print you're going to end up in a bad place.

[kotajikikox]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right?

of course it is applicable but I don't think that this is a best interest to not use and just do the normal way of betting of bet per team and per game.

I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

if he is really willing to use that strategy then he must choose to wait for 90 minutes or more that we knew it is gambling and everyone wanted to be at easy bet and win .

[Viscore]

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Lottery may give us huge amount of winning but the chances of winning is still low, so even if you keep on increasing your bet, that will not guarantee that you will eventually win in the end. I was addicted to lottery before but then I realized the more I keep on betting, the higher chances of losing bigger amount in my part. Same with martingale too, the prize really looks tempting, but I agree the more you increase your bet, the bigger amount of losses you will gain in the end.

[slapper]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

As a sports bettor, I've encountered the Martingale strategy, but I don't like it. The system may seem failsafe, yet it might harm your financially. Increasing your wagers after each loss may seem tempting, but it may start a terrifying cycle of chasing losses, and a few consecutive losses might wipe out your account.

I prefer to bet sports cautiously. Instead of using a random approach, I enjoy examining the data, assessing the statistics, and finding the best odds. It's less thrilling than a betting system, but it's a more reliable way to make money.

I always myself, "Does the risk genuinely justify the projected reward?" before trying a new betting system. I emphatically refuse the Martingale system.

[Plaguedeath]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

The odds is different, so you will get diferent return, I don't think it's possible except you're force yourself to bet on @1.5 or @2.00 odds, or calculate the odds in order to bet a correct amount stake which is time consuming. I think the result will be similar like slots, where you're run out of your money because martingale strategy only work if you have an unlimited money.

[Fredomago]

Has anyone ever tried a Martingale system at sports competitions? I know that this system is best known for using it in a casino, but in principle you can also apply it if you use it on a gambling site, right? I assume you don't want to delay success with this strategy, in which case you could consider betting on points in tennis or volleyball for example. You could bet on regular markets in football for example, but then you need a lot of patience because those bets are only processed for 90 minutes with a bit of bad luck. I don't think you want to wait for that.

The odds is different, so you will get diferent return, I don't think it's possible except you're force yourself to bet on @1.5 or @2.00 odds, or calculate the odds in order to bet a correct amount stake which is time consuming. I think the result will be similar like slots, where you're run out of your money because martingale strategy only work if you have an unlimited money.

Same concept even you will going to use it in sports betting, but there are always possibilities if you are really aiming to find success, martingale might work if you will take time to balance those sports that you'll be betting, if you have a better understanding of the game and you know how player/team are working then the chance is good to earn some money from this strategy.

Though, for sure the same risk is always there as same with casino games, sports betting always have unexpected outcome
and if losing streak takes place, keeping your bets doubled needs you to have unlimited bankroll.

[Betwrong]

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

That is false and even if it were true the conditions are unrealistic, so people better forget about Martingale, but no matter how many times that has been explained in this forum by several of us, and in a lot of places on the web, people misinterpret what they want and keep trying the strategy.

What were you going to do with unlimited money and no bet limits? Double the bet to win only the initial amount until you lose it all and start all over again?

The Martingale should be called the Rubbishgala.

First off, if you have "unlimited money", why bothering with making a bit more with such boring betting strategy as martingale?

Maybe it's a philosophical question, but I wouldn't say @pawel7777 was wrong in saying "Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy" under those conditions.

~ We can agree that there's no winning strategy for any games with a mathematical edge not being on your side (negative EV).
But if you still want to gamble on such, then martingale is just as good, or just as bad as any other betting style. You're just betting on not having a losing streak exceeding your bankroll.

Absolutely. For example, you can bet your entire balance on a single slot spin, and this strategy, although considered bad money management wise, wouldn't look so bad if you hit a high multiplier.

[SirLancelot]

I've never tried Martingale strategy on sports betting, I've only used it a couple of time on Casino games.
I personally do not think that this betting strategy would be good on sport betting, since like you already explained, sports is not an immediate result showing kind of game, its a game where as after betting, you have to wait for some time to see what the results is or are, Using a Martingale strategy for such kind of games really does not make any sense, and it would just make the strategy really boring to use.

Martingale is best suited for casino games where things happen really fast, where you can decide whether to still use the strategy in your next game or not in just a matter of seconds.

Martingale originated in dice games first but later on people use it on any other games so why not in sports betting right? The only problem is that sports betting matches takes too long to complete so the classic martingale feels that we are looking for might be incomplete. In sports betting, martingale isn't necessary because they mostly have smaller odds.

The only best way to play sports betting is by betting at larger amounts at once so that the win that we will get is also huge. People are less afraid of doing it because they are confident about their knowledge on the teams that are involved in the game. This is something that can't be done in casino games.

[Alisha-k]

It's fair enough afterall what's betting without risk and this isn't a bad offer afterall. I'll take it, but I think I'll bet just 5% of my value and in 10 payrolls I should have gotten a good return to carry me through the next round.

[freedomgo]

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

Well, it's because they want to win some money from gambling that makes them continue to gamble in many gambling games. And that will always happen because gambling can tempt them to continue playing and win money.

That's what makes many gamblers addicted because the temptation of the gambling game seems to be calling them to keep playing. But if people can limit themselves not to play gambling for too long or often, they will not be tempted and can leave gambling.

The urge to make money is clearly the reason why gamblers regardless of how many times they lose, are still trying their luck to make money and eventually want to double them. Although gambling is never bad, but the only time it gets too bad is when you reach to the point gambling all your money until your pocket becomes empty and then eventually take a loan just to fuel your gambling addiction. If you see it happening now, better leave gambling as early as now before it gets to ruin the life you have now.