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Author Topic: Betting strategy question  (Read 6041 times)
SirLancelot
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July 13, 2023, 04:34:49 AM
 #601

If we talk about a long term prospect, we as a gambler will always lose. But if we talk about a short term prospect, we as a gambler could win some because bad luck isn't happen everyday. Just remember, before gambling we should know gambling is for entertain and never consider gambling as a daily income.
I don't agree with your statement. In my opinion, only some gamblers whose ratio of losses is greater than their ratio of wins, because gambling is not only a matter of luck, but a matter of analysis and time. Some gamblers use analysis on their games and this is what makes them win and even make gambling their main source of income, because they already know the flow of the game.
Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.

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len01
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July 13, 2023, 07:30:20 AM
 #602

Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.
even professional gamblers still experience defeat when trying to analyze carefully and bet on the chosen team. on the one hand using the arbitrage strategy on betting maybe someone thinks this is very easy to do but it is very difficult and too big a risk when the sportbook finds out its customers using the arbitrage strategy will immediately be banned from the sportbook and I call this a loss.
but even though luck is still very important here, at least using any strategy can minimize losses so that they are not too big.

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swogerino
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July 13, 2023, 08:04:45 AM
 #603

Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.
even professional gamblers still experience defeat when trying to analyze carefully and bet on the chosen team. on the one hand using the arbitrage strategy on betting maybe someone thinks this is very easy to do but it is very difficult and too big a risk when the sportbook finds out its customers using the arbitrage strategy will immediately be banned from the sportbook and I call this a loss.
but even though luck is still very important here, at least using any strategy can minimize losses so that they are not too big.

It is impossible to develop winning strategies,personally I have been losing in sport betting and decided to follow some pages where they usually boast that they are in profit overall and placed several bets yesterday night,most of them were lost games despite me betting on the so called favorites,USA lost to Panama in what it was a fixed game most probably as 5-6 is a result we rarely see,Houston Dinamo lost 0-3 and a couple of other games which were favorites and lost their games,this all to show that winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.

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Blitzboy
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July 13, 2023, 10:42:03 AM
 #604

If we talk about a long term prospect, we as a gambler will always lose. But if we talk about a short term prospect, we as a gambler could win some because bad luck isn't happen everyday. Just remember, before gambling we should know gambling is for entertain and never consider gambling as a daily income.
I don't agree with your statement. In my opinion, only some gamblers whose ratio of losses is greater than their ratio of wins, because gambling is not only a matter of luck, but a matter of analysis and time. Some gamblers use analysis on their games and this is what makes them win and even make gambling their main source of income, because they already know the flow of the game.
Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.
Gambling is unpredictable, whether its traditional or sports betting. No amount of study can calm luck's breeze.

Lets look at it from another angle. Isnt every life choice a risk? Arent we all playing the odds based on our information? We make these decisions nonetheless. Knowing the hazards, we gather information, analyse it, and act. I believe that gambling is a bad way to make a living, but I also think analysis is useful in gambling situations. Even if it doesnt win, it changes the game's parameters.

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Doan9269
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July 13, 2023, 11:58:58 AM
 #605

even professional gamblers still experience defeat when trying to analyze carefully and bet on the chosen team.

Should anyone come to inform us of the best strategy or gow to gamble without loosing is nothing but lies, gambling is a game of chances and how lucky we appear when doing it, no one can be so professional  enough in gambling without making some mistakes along the road, we cannot know it all but yet we can make a good performance in our gambling experience by having a better understanding of how we could minimize risk and increase chances of winning.

but even though luck is still very important here, at least using any strategy can minimize losses so that they are not too big.

That's true, we can reduce the risk to the bearest minimum level that it will not affect our gambling lifestyle, we can experience losses but when it's too much for us to cope with, we may decided to loose interest in gambling or rather have the opposite by being addicted to gambling on a move to make recovery back from the losses made but the more we are attempting the more the losses keep on increasing each day.

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carlisle1
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July 13, 2023, 02:53:46 PM
 #606

Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.
even professional gamblers still experience defeat when trying to analyze carefully and bet on the chosen team. on the one hand using the arbitrage strategy on betting maybe someone thinks this is very easy to do but it is very difficult and too big a risk when the sportbook finds out its customers using the arbitrage strategy will immediately be banned from the sportbook and I call this a loss.
but even though luck is still very important here, at least using any strategy can minimize losses so that they are not too big.

Yes, arbitrage betting always favors you as a gambler, but once the sports house finds about your practices, the chance of
freezing your account or void your bets can take place.

Not only that, the chance of closing your account without getting your money back is also possible, it's not easy access since
house also needs to protect their money.

Better to find other options or alternative that will give you some decent chance of winning.
nullama
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July 14, 2023, 04:37:32 AM
 #607

~snip~
Yes, arbitrage betting always favors you as a gambler, but once the sports house finds about your practices, the chance of
freezing your account or void your bets can take place.

Not only that, the chance of closing your account without getting your money back is also possible, it's not easy access since
house also needs to protect their money.

Better to find other options or alternative that will give you some decent chance of winning.

Yeah, I think arbitrage is not seen as a nice thing to do for most casinos, plus these days it's not as easy to get those opportunities anyway.

Plus, there are many fees involved that sometimes it doesn't make sense to do it.

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len01
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July 14, 2023, 03:01:18 PM
 #608

winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.
improving a winning strategy can be done and it will definitely get a win if you use an arbitrage strategy  Grin. but I don't recommend doing that.
TBH, several times betting on sports and other types of casino games I have tried to improve my strategy to be able to win but in reality I still get defeat. with this I'm thinking that maybe I don't need to think too much about improving my winning strategy but just bet a few times on a team match I know with a slightly larger amount. so that I have a little time to bet on sports betting but if I win I get a little big win.

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pawel7777 (OP)
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July 14, 2023, 03:41:03 PM
 #609

Yes, arbitrage betting always favors you as a gambler, but once the sports house finds about your practices, the chance of
freezing your account or void your bets can take place.

Not only that, the chance of closing your account without getting your money back is also possible, it's not easy access since
house also needs to protect their money.

Getting your account banned for arbitrage betting is a very probable option. If it wasn't we'd all be doing that and all betting sites would go bust. But no legally operating casino can seize your funds permanently as that'd be simply illegal. At very worst they could freeze your account for the time of investigation if they suspected any abuse, or they could not pay you your winnings if they had evidence of you violating the terms of service, but that would be pretty hard to do for arbitrage betting, as the betting site can't see your betting history on other platforms.



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July 14, 2023, 09:11:23 PM
 #610

~snip~

I'm not advocating for throwing all the money into one pot and going all in on one thing. Of course you need to budget for all life expenses and carefully plan to achieve your financial goals.
Personally, I do have multiple special purpose reserves (house repairs, holiday fund, car maintenance fund etc) and diversify my investments. But at the same time, I'm looking at it as one big fund and periodically would evaluate it to make sure I manage it in the most optimal way (to the best of my abilities). For example, I have separate funds for investing, but that doesn't mean I cannot also invest money held as a house repair fund. It doesn't make sense to keep it on a low-interest bank account and watch it get eaten by high inflation.

Back to the subject of gambling - what does it even mean to have your money split as "your own budget" and "the gaming budget"? Obviously your gaming budget should be a part of your own budget, unless you're gambling with other people's money. And what's the point of having a hard split (other than to make yourself feel better)? If your gaming budget is low or drained, but you spot an amazing betting opportunity - are you not going to take it (provided you have other funds and can afford to risk them)? Or if your gaming budget grows big (by luck) and you have a great investment opportunity - are you not going to take it just because you earmarked that money for gambling?
You claim to be optimizing all of your various financial resources. But, truly, are we just playing with numbers, like some sort of accounting game? Although I agree that it is prudent to set aside funds for specific purposes, your discussion of making such transfers freely presents questions. Let's say you're right and a fantastic chance to make money presents itself. You propose using money intended for home maintenance on this. What happens if the roof starts leaking and your sizzling investment starts losing money? Having distinct financial compartments makes a lot of sense, guy. It's all about self-control when it comes to your gambling budget. You're in for a bumpy trip if you try to mix and match different budgets. Sure, you might get lucky and become wealthy. The alternative is that you spend all your money and have to survive on quick ramen. Keep your self-control, bro!

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July 15, 2023, 05:14:31 PM
 #611

winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.
improving a winning strategy can be done and it will definitely get a win if you use an arbitrage strategy  Grin. but I don't recommend doing that.
TBH, several times betting on sports and other types of casino games I have tried to improve my strategy to be able to win but in reality I still get defeat. with this I'm thinking that maybe I don't need to think too much about improving my winning strategy but just bet a few times on a team match I know with a slightly larger amount. so that I have a little time to bet on sports betting but if I win I get a little big win.

Just a reality that even you try to find the strategy that you think might work the outcome most of the time still favor the house, not just because of the house edge but also with how they handle the odds, bookies are good in alluring bettors, and knowing that inside gambling there's no accurate or any assurance that you'll continue to win.

It's good to bet and wait for the outcome. If you win, then collect and withdraw your money, then enjoy celebrate your win.

If you lose, move forward and re-assess never to aggressively try to act real quick just to recover that money, it will lead you to a possible more loss if you keep pushing your way.

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July 15, 2023, 05:21:50 PM
 #612

winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.
improving a winning strategy can be done and it will definitely get a win if you use an arbitrage strategy  Grin. but I don't recommend doing that.
TBH, several times betting on sports and other types of casino games I have tried to improve my strategy to be able to win but in reality I still get defeat. with this I'm thinking that maybe I don't need to think too much about improving my winning strategy but just bet a few times on a team match I know with a slightly larger amount. so that I have a little time to bet on sports betting but if I win I get a little big win.

Just a reality that even you try to find the strategy that you think might work the outcome most of the time still favor the house, not just because of the house edge but also with how they handle the odds, bookies are good in alluring bettors, and knowing that inside gambling there's no accurate or any assurance that you'll continue to win.

Bookie usually sets odds based on the demand of the market. They are not deciding this on their own just to allure someone to place bet on an unusual odds since there’s still a possibility for that pick to happened. Bookies earned most of their profits on their house edge since they always have a profit no matter what the result is. There’s no odds gives 2.0 both side that will make bookie breakeven on a match but instead most picks has a negative EV in favor for bookie.

Those alluring odds on some cases is just very rare and some of them is just a result of bookie error. But most of the time, Bookie focus on house edge instead of trapping players on this kind of trap odds.

.
.DuelbitsSPORTS.
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fullhdpixel
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July 22, 2023, 07:46:05 PM
 #613

Yes, arbitrage betting always favors you as a gambler, but once the sports house finds about your practices, the chance of
freezing your account or void your bets can take place.

Not only that, the chance of closing your account without getting your money back is also possible, it's not easy access since
house also needs to protect their money.
Getting your account banned for arbitrage betting is a very probable option. If it wasn't we'd all be doing that and all betting sites would go bust. But no legally operating casino can seize your funds permanently as that'd be simply illegal. At very worst they could freeze your account for the time of investigation if they suspected any abuse, or they could not pay you your winnings if they had evidence of you violating the terms of service, but that would be pretty hard to do for arbitrage betting, as the betting site can't see your betting history on other platforms.
I wonder how they will suspect you for doing arbitrage betting if they can't share or receive information with other casinos and in arbitrage betting, you are doing nothing other than placing a bet on a team just like every normal user does, it can either be a win or a loss for you. I've always thought that maybe casinos have some global way of sharing information with each other about gamblers who are potential cheaters, and violating the terms and conditions.

So they will either not be able to suspect you for doing arbitrage betting or if they do suspect you, it simply means that they have some kind of contact between casino managements where they share information with each other for gamblers like you who try to cheat or do arbitrage betting which is against the terms and conditions of the casinos.

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carlisle1
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July 24, 2023, 12:51:17 PM
 #614

Yes, arbitrage betting always favors you as a gambler, but once the sports house finds about your practices, the chance of
freezing your account or void your bets can take place.

Not only that, the chance of closing your account without getting your money back is also possible, it's not easy access since
house also needs to protect their money.

Getting your account banned for arbitrage betting is a very probable option. If it wasn't we'd all be doing that and all betting sites would go bust. But no legally operating casino can seize your funds permanently as that'd be simply illegal. At very worst they could freeze your account for the time of investigation if they suspected any abuse, or they could not pay you your winnings if they had evidence of you violating the terms of service, but that would be pretty hard to do for arbitrage betting, as the betting site can't see your betting history on other platforms.

Maybe you can get a lite sanction by voiding the bet and let you earn that warning, but the thing is you losses the other part of your
bet as doing arbitrage needs another site to place your other bet.

If one of the site freeze/void your bet, meaning to say that you are on the losing side, like what we understand, if that's not prohibited, the
advantage is on the gambler's side.

You just need to take time to sort it out and find the value bet, but in reality it's not and most of the time you'll wreck your capital.
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July 24, 2023, 01:45:00 PM
 #615

It's good to bet and wait for the outcome. If you win, then collect and withdraw your money, then enjoy celebrate your win.
I don't think it's that easy because when we make a bet, we can't just stay silent, we also look for other betting options that can provide better odds.
After all, when we win, it's also impossible to collect winnings and then withdraw and enjoy them, the desire to bet again so we can win more will always come to mind so that in the end it doesn't collect but instead runs out entirely because of defeat.

It is best to really look for betting options that allow you to win and only use money you are willing to lose when betting.

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July 24, 2023, 02:03:28 PM
 #616

Maybe you can get a lite sanction by voiding the bet and let you earn that warning, but the thing is you losses the other part of your
bet as doing arbitrage needs another site to place your other bet.

If one of the site freeze/void your bet, meaning to say that you are on the losing side, like what we understand, if that's not prohibited, the
advantage is on the gambler's side.

You just need to take time to sort it out and find the value bet, but in reality it's not and most of the time you'll wreck your capital.


Arbitrage betting is very risky, they as in the paltform can easily block your account. They do mention it in thier T&C still, gamblers use it to an extent where they get caught. I have not encountered it but I did found out that while going through different platforms that arbitrage betting is possible. I did create a thread about it and everyone replied that it is a risky investment. Imagine you won but you cannot withdraw becaut multiple platforms found out what you were doing. It happens when a casino ask you to reverify your identity. I won't support it as it is prone to loss and it can be considered a bad idea.
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July 24, 2023, 03:41:12 PM
 #617

Arbitrage betting is very risky, they as in the paltform can easily block your account. They do mention it in thier T&C still, gamblers use it to an extent where they get caught. I have not encountered it but I did found out that while going through different platforms that arbitrage betting is possible. I did create a thread about it and everyone replied that it is a risky investment. Imagine you won but you cannot withdraw becaut multiple platforms found out what you were doing. It happens when a casino ask you to reverify your identity. I won't support it as it is prone to loss and it can be considered a bad idea.

I think the most platforms, if they have any T&S regarding arbitrage betting at all, would probably limit them to betting on the same event within the platform. Sure, they could restrict any form of arbitrage, but there's no way for them to know what bets have you placed on different platforms, so they could not enforce it anyway. And even if different platforms colluded and shared such information between themselves - it would be trivial to bypass by just teaming up with a friend etc.
So, to my best knowledge, what happens when you attempt to arbitrage is that you'll get banned but based on your unusual activity (betting large money on unpopular or unlikely events etc).



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July 25, 2023, 06:47:10 AM
 #618

~snip~
Arbitrage betting is very risky, they as in the paltform can easily block your account. They do mention it in thier T&C still, gamblers use it to an extent where they get caught. I have not encountered it but I did found out that while going through different platforms that arbitrage betting is possible. I did create a thread about it and everyone replied that it is a risky investment. Imagine you won but you cannot withdraw becaut multiple platforms found out what you were doing. It happens when a casino ask you to reverify your identity. I won't support it as it is prone to loss and it can be considered a bad idea.


There's also the technical risk that sometimes you are not able to put your bets in the other site for any reason, so it's not like it's free money with no risks.

And also, you need to spend time and effort to make this happen, which is of course not free. You could be doing something else instead that makes you more money, and is more valuable to society in general anyway.

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July 25, 2023, 02:16:47 PM
 #619

winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.
improving a winning strategy can be done and it will definitely get a win if you use an arbitrage strategy  Grin. but I don't recommend doing that.
TBH, several times betting on sports and other types of casino games I have tried to improve my strategy to be able to win but in reality I still get defeat. with this I'm thinking that maybe I don't need to think too much about improving my winning strategy but just bet a few times on a team match I know with a slightly larger amount. so that I have a little time to bet on sports betting but if I win I get a little big win.

Just a reality that even you try to find the strategy that you think might work the outcome most of the time still favor the house, not just because of the house edge but also with how they handle the odds, bookies are good in alluring bettors, and knowing that inside gambling there's no accurate or any assurance that you'll continue to win.

Bookie usually sets odds based on the demand of the market. They are not deciding this on their own just to allure someone to place bet on an unusual odds since there’s still a possibility for that pick to happened. Bookies earned most of their profits on their house edge since they always have a profit no matter what the result is. There’s no odds gives 2.0 both side that will make bookie breakeven on a match but instead most picks has a negative EV in favor for bookie.

Those alluring odds on some cases is just very rare and some of them is just a result of bookie error. But most of the time, Bookie focus on house edge instead of trapping players on this kind of trap odds.

Yes, and thank you for noting that, I just used the term alluring since bookies always find ways to bring attractive odds and always find success in bringing bettors, I get the point that they have basis when placing that odds and for sure they will not just place that like what you mentioned it's always possible that it will be pick by bettors, though in some cases, maybe mistake has been made.

It's good to bet and wait for the outcome. If you win, then collect and withdraw your money, then enjoy celebrate your win.
I don't think it's that easy because when we make a bet, we can't just stay silent, we also look for other betting options that can provide better odds.
After all, when we win, it's also impossible to collect winnings and then withdraw and enjoy them, the desire to bet again so we can win more will always come to mind so that in the end it doesn't collect but instead runs out entirely because of defeat.

It is best to really look for betting options that allow you to win and only use money you are willing to lose when betting.

And that's reality inside gambling. You can't resist that feeling to keep on betting, the desire to find value bets that may give you
chance to win, either to add more with your winnings or trying to recover what you already lost, not easy if you are already been
dominated by that kind of lust.

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July 25, 2023, 02:25:06 PM
 #620

It's good to bet and wait for the outcome. If you win, then collect and withdraw your money, then enjoy celebrate your win.
I don't think it's that easy because when we make a bet, we can't just stay silent, we also look for other betting options that can provide better odds.
After all, when we win, it's also impossible to collect winnings and then withdraw and enjoy them, the desire to bet again so we can win more will always come to mind so that in the end it doesn't collect but instead runs out entirely because of defeat.

It is best to really look for betting options that allow you to win and only use money you are willing to lose when betting.
If you can resist the urge to bet again after winning and prefer to rest, it will refresh your mind so that you are no longer emotional when you bet again. Sometimes we just need to analyze, place bets and wait for the results. And if the result is we win, we can rest and vice versa. Don't try to get another victory after we win but try to rest a while. And after resting, we can bet again; this time, if we win, we repeat as before while collecting the winnings. And if it reaches the minimum withdrawal limit, we can withdraw it and celebrate our victory.

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