Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative

[BlackHatCoiner]

you have things backwards

For all products in an economy, the cost to produce is a parameter of market value, because it determines the supply. If the cost drops, the supply increases. If the cost rises, the supply decreases. But difficulty doesn't allow that to happen. If you find the cheapest electricity on the planet, and it takes you $1,000 to mine a bitcoin, then you're just stealing other miners' income; you don't arbitrarily increase the money supply. The demand for bitcoins remain the same, the supply for bitcoins remain the same. You're just making the money other miners would.

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[Wind_FURY]

Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics and Germany falling down the economic ladder fast due to its reliance on ever-more expensive fossil fuels. So that's why Im torn on his views on crypto - hes usually right.

He sounds like a FUDster. China collapse by 2030? That would entail that every other country that relies on Chinese production would collapse too. A war would ensue before that could happen.

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

"Money is going away"? Did he mean to say Quantitative tightening? The Federal Reserve will pivot as early as March, 2023 if inflation would drop quick enough. The printer will be back, and the money will flow ser.

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one.

It's not "on the whim of the commercial banks", it's the FED.

On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

at 53min 20 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI

I believe that in a few more years, many countries will discover that, LIKE GERMANY, pursuing the dream of having their energy sources from mostly renewable sources is a MISTAKE. They are simply too unreliable.

[RahbabaKahn]

Most electric utilities will pass the cost of their carbon tax on to the consumer.  Therefore, a Bitcoin Miner would be operating at a loss, if they are consuming utility power.  So why mine Bitcoins?  For what purpose?  Bitcoins inherently have absolutely no tangible value (only perceived value).  The only thing that makes sense would be for a Bitcoin miner to consumer 100% renewable power from wind/solar/hydro.  Even then, renewable sources of power are not constant, so that would require the miner to install storage batteries that could provide power when there is no wind or sun.  Again, that requires more $$$ investments.  Given all of these costs to eliminate the bitcoin miners carbon footprint, why do bitcoin mining at all?  It appears to be a very unprofitable business, and environmentally hazardous if the miner is not consuming renewable power.  The truth demonstrates that the process is very inefficient.  SO why not utilize different blockchain technology, that is more efficient than Bitcoin?  In this year of 2023, there are many more crypto-tokens available that are more environmentally friendly, and can perform the same function as a Bitcoin.  Why mine bitcoins at all?  I'm very curious to know the benefits?

[franky1]

Most electric utilities will pass the cost of their carbon tax on to the consumer.  Therefore, a Bitcoin Miner would be operating at a loss, if they are consuming utility power.  So why mine Bitcoins?  For what purpose?  Bitcoins inherently have absolutely no tangible value (only perceived value).  

bitcoin has features and utility. and so people want bitcoin.
how they get it depends on their costs.
some miners can mine coin below the market rate. some not so much so they just buy it.

bitcoin is not tangible(physical in hand) as a currency but its method of creation is tangible. (dropping an asic on your head will hurt you)
spotify is not tangible(digital audio) but a server farm creating the audio is real. if a server rack falls on you, you'll feel it, as you would if you tried to walk up to an song artist and tell them they are fake. (enjoy the slap/punch)

bitcoin has intrinsic value. there is underlying cost in its creation and then as people acquire and pass on coins new buyers acquire at the sell rate too

there are 2 different markets and people dont realise that the public spot market of speculation is the premium(retail) market not the value(wholesale) market

[LegendaryK]

Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics

While aging demographics pose some problem, there's no way it'll make China collapse.

Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

This statement is ridiculous since miner could just mine with renewable/sustainable energy which has less carbon and it only has small impact on cryptocurrency which doesn't use PoW. Report by Bitcoin Mining Council also show majority Bitcoin miner use renewable/sustainable energy.

Looking at China , growing inability to keep the power on and growing inability to feed themselves , collapse is not out of the question,
part of the reason they started the PoW ban.

PoW uses an insane amount of energy , carbon taxes would drive up input costs for miners to increase bankruptcies that are already skyrocketing without carbon taxes.
Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.
IMO, it is because the VC money that kept the PoW miners afloat has dried up for the majority, and the VC money is what was propping up the price and that is going away.
Bitcoin Mining Council puts out alot of propaganda bullshit,
BTC miners are using power grids that have some renewables as a % of their total which include coal, nuclear, & natural gas as the bulk %.
The Polar Vortex in the US, just caused 30% of the bitcoin hashrate to go offline for 3 days to avoid grid failure, this caused a decrease in the speed of finding new blocks, the only thing saving BTC, is hardly anyone is using it's blockchain anymore.
The Lack of VC money will hurt all crypto, killing most and only the very strong top 20 Non-PoW coin networks will survive and any tokens running on those networks, the rest are just fubar.

[zander1983]

I believe that in a few more years, many countries will discover that, LIKE GERMANY, pursuing the dream of having their energy sources from mostly renewable sources is a MISTAKE. They are simply too unreliable.

If fossil fuels weren't depleting at 5% - 7% per year, and weren't causing catastrophic climate change, nobody would consider using anything else. Unfortunately, they are and a transition is something renewable is a good thing. The problem is there is a one big lie: there is no renewable technology that doesn't involve everyones standard of living dropping. Either way, we're fucked. But more fucked in the former case.

[zander1983]

This statement is ridiculous since miner could just mine with renewable/sustainable energy which has less carbon and it only has small impact on cryptocurrency which doesn't use PoW. Report by Bitcoin Mining Council also show majority Bitcoin miner use renewable/sustainable energy.

I agree. It does look like Zeihan and many others think because Bitcoin uses the same energy as Switzerland roughly, it can only ever function using this amount of energy. They dont understand the difficulty adjustment and game theory elements.

[franky1]

oh leg-end. .. im noticing how much you misunderstand about many things,
not just crypto value and utility. but also geo-politics.

ill start with geo-politics
china's issues is not about what you heard on fox news and then re-sung by some youtube video guy.

they have power. they actually are very efficient in their power production and end consumer utility..
its actually americans that waste more energy per person than china
heck even looking at the gas-guzzling cars in america compared to the UK. america waste alot of fuel

as for the mistreatment of the uyghurs, where the guy in the video mentions how china is being left out of international trade deals due to about 1m uyghurs detained and retrained..
of a chinese population of 1.4b vs 1m detainees 0.07%
america has 330m and 1m mexicans detained and retrained.. 0.3%

america have a bigger problem of people in jail/prison/detained immigrants/minorities

but lets return to the crypto stuff involving china
what china found is many people were residential mining(hobby mining) over running the neighbourhoods circuit breakers and causing localised brownouts due to stealing electric and tripping the neighbourhoods circuit breakers

also there were lots of unregistered and unregulated businesses. it became too much to handle/police.. so they had to shut it down. even the ones operating legitimately

the idea years ago was to prohibit bitcoin and then licence it through regulations. but they didnt see a easy path to police the malicious hobby miners

its the same as cannabis growers. people growing in their basements was a "war on drugs" that lasted decades

.. as for the other conspiracy that china is a dead country with dying population dying economy
thats just more BS you would expect to hear from fox news

if you actually bother to travel to countries you want to discuss you will see a different picture
you will see the "belt and road" which is forming new trade passages, things the EU would never dare invest in due to EU not affording such projects of such magnitude

but to try to say china is dead, based on stupid misunderstandings of GDP. is the same stupid misunderstanding of people trying to value crypto based on the nonsense number of "market cap"
GDP has become a nonsense number of meaningless relevance

Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.

not all miners mine for the same costs.
the value line is not "all miners" nor "average" its the BOTTOM cost. the most efficient miners.

the rest of them have higher costs.
EG hobby miners in hawaii have a $90k/btc cost to mine. so do you know what they do..
.. they dont mine right now and instead buy bitcoin direct.
why?.. well obviously its a 6x cheaper offer to just buy bitcoin than mine it.

if some idiot miners decided to continue mining at a loss.. that is on them.

also the recent news of a mining business going bankrupt was because they were doing scammy "cloud mining" but no one wanted to pay for the "contracts" due to the ask price being stupidly higher than market rate. they deserved to die


its this reason why for the last year the average hashrate has stayed around the 230 average hashrate(temp peaking to 310 and temp dipping to 160)

what you find is the most efficient mining is on the increase, and the less efficent mining is on the decrease
but its why there is no mass of hobby miners bringing the hashrate up to 350exa hash at a sustainable level which would have been the case if the price was higher because the hobby miners play to the whims of the market and jump off mining to become bitcoin market buyers.

but the efficient miners have been sustaining a level..
which if you look at the BOTTOMS of 2020-2022 prices
you will see we are at a higher bottom than 2020
and youll see a higher bottom of mining too in 2022 compared to 2020

which shows that increase of hashrate has caused an increase to the bottom

the rest of the speculative market ontop is just that speculations of different peoples viewpoints of their own individual decisions on when they want to buy.


your biggest mistake seems to be to the the 2021 ATH was a "sustained value" point where the price correction after was not a return to value(in your eyes) but a destruction of value.
you are wrong the value line of 2020 was about $3k and value in 2022 is ~$15k

again the speculative market above value is then the volatile premium of speculating based on random sentiment

[pawanjain]

Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics and Germany falling down the economic ladder fast due to its reliance on ever-more expensive fossil fuels. So that's why Im torn on his views on crypto - hes usually right.

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one. On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

at 53min 20 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI

Inflation is skyrocketing because the governments have been printing lots of money in the past few years.
All of this money is still present in the market and the whales are just moving it from one domain to other.
The money gets revolved from one kind of investment to others. Right now everyone is scared because of the on going inflation/recession and market crashes.
So the dust needs to settle down before people start pouring their money into crypto again.
I guess it will take another 2 years for that to happen.

[franky1]

Inflation is skyrocketing because the governments have been printing lots of money in the past few years.
All of this money is still present in the market and the whales are just moving it from one domain to other.
The money gets revolved from one kind of investment to others. Right now everyone is scared because of the on going inflation/recession and market crashes.
So the dust needs to settle down before people start pouring their money into crypto again.
I guess it will take another 2 years for that to happen.

exactly
the money print of 2020 was not a large push out to the citizens to trickle up. the amount that went to citizens in the covid cheques was small in comparison to the money print hidden away in darkpools of institutions. however in 2022 this started to "trickle down" meaning too much money in citizens hands and so businesses raise their prices to "trickle up" that money again. and thats the inflation part
and now that people have less money but prices are high we are now in recession era

[Wind_FURY]

Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics

While aging demographics pose some problem, there's no way it'll make China collapse.

Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

This statement is ridiculous since miner could just mine with renewable/sustainable energy which has less carbon and it only has small impact on cryptocurrency which doesn't use PoW. Report by Bitcoin Mining Council also show majority Bitcoin miner use renewable/sustainable energy.

Looking at China , growing inability to keep the power on and growing inability to feed themselves , collapse is not out of the question,
part of the reason they started the PoW ban.

PoW uses an insane amount of energy , carbon taxes would drive up input costs for miners to increase bankruptcies that are already skyrocketing without carbon taxes.

Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.

I believe the "so many miners" that are going bankrupt, you are saying they're all Bitcoin miners, not shitcoin miners? Can you show us a list of who those "so many miners" that went bankrupt?

IMO, it is because the VC money that kept the PoW miners afloat has dried up for the majority, and the VC money is what was propping up the price and that is going away.

Bitcoin Mining Council puts out alot of propaganda bullshit, BTC miners are using power grids that have some renewables as a % of their total which include coal, nuclear, & natural gas as the bulk %.

The Polar Vortex in the US, just caused 30% of the bitcoin hashrate to go offline for 3 days to avoid grid failure, this caused a decrease in the speed of finding new blocks, the only thing saving BTC, is hardly anyone is using it's blockchain anymore.

But what if Bitcoin keeps chugging along, producing block after block for decades? What if it lives longer than you? How old are you? 50? Average human life span is 70 to 75 years. What if Bitcoin keeps on running 10x longer than your remaining 20 - 25 years in the world?

The Lack of VC money will hurt all crypto, killing most and only the very strong top 20 Non-PoW coin networks will survive and any tokens running on those networks, the rest are just fubar.

Haha. That would truly indicate that it's going to be a Shitcoin World.

[pixie85]

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one. On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

What carbon taxes are they going to impose on nuclear power? It doesn't produce any carbon and there are hundreds of nuclear power plants operating worldwide. In fact, China is trying to make more as we speak.

Also, he's talking about "crypto". Bitcoin is not crypto, I hate when people are putting all coins in one basket even though they're often like apples and oranges.

I think that he's completely wrong about cryptocurrencies. Their benefits greatly outnumber the cost of using them, so even with some countries going all renewable there are going to be countries that say fuck that, we're building more nuclear plants or fuck that' we're going to keep using coal as long as we have it. Once we run out, then we'll go green.

I don't see India or China going green. Russia also doesn't care. The biggest countries talking about renewables are actually those that don't produce a lot of CO2. Those that produce the most don't care. As a result you'll have countries like Germany taxing people to build more wind mills and they'll reduce total emissions in the EU from 9% of the global emissions to 8% or something while China alone produces about 30%.

[LegendaryK]

I believe the "so many miners" that are going bankrupt, you are saying they're all Bitcoin miners?
Can you show us a list of who those "so many miners" that went bankrupt?

 

Bitcoin Proof of Waste miners going bankrupt just in the US alone.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-file-chapter-11-bankruptcy-cnbc-2022-12-21/

Austin, Texas-based Core Scientific attributed its bankruptcy to slumping bitcoin prices, rising energy costs for bitcoin mining and a $7 million unpaid debt from U.S. crypto lender Celsius Network

https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2022/09/30/bitcoin-minings-first-major-bankruptcy-creates-uncertainty-for-key-partners-opportunity-for-others/?sh=34de5dbb657d

Compute North, the second largest bitcoin mining hosting provider in the US, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/bitcoin-miner-greenidge-gree-btc-warns-of-bankruptcy-restructures-debt

Greenidge Generation Holdings Inc., once one of the largest public Bitcoin miners in the US, warned that it may seek bankruptcy protection

No one using Proof of Stake has had to declared bankruptcy because of lack of VC money to cover their ridiculous waste of energy.  

What if , you really need to think about?
What if the entire world places a carbon tax on btc?
What if the world governments just outright ban proof of waste?
What if, all of the btc cult members are wrong and btc only falls in price from now on?
What if, you were just an idiot that believe a outdated slow failing tech product was a deity?
When Ethereum become #1 on CMK, What if no one cared that btc died.  

[pixie85]

No one using Proof of Stake has had to declared bankruptcy because of lack of VC money to cover their ridiculous waste of energy.  

Because PoS is making money out of thin air. It doesn't require any money to be poured into it. It produces money with no value, inflationary money, diluting the supply in the process, just like ETH is doing.

I guess all those US mining companies that went bankrupt weren't really that big because bitcoin's hash rate is still 25% higher than it was in the peak of 2021.

Fear mongers want us to panic because the price went down 75%, one scam exchange went bankrupt and some miners in the US had to shut down due to Winter power shortages, but in the meantime the number of wallets containing 1 bitcoin is at all time high and hash rate is higher than it was at the all time high and 2 times what it was in the middle of 2021.

[BlackHatCoiner]

What if

What if you go outside, take a few breaths, eat a meal, take a walk to your town, visit the parliament, maybe stay there for a while and witness that it isn't consisted only of communists who'd cut the heads of those who'd have dared to spend energy in disapproved activities, and get back home?

When Ethereum become #1 on CMK, What if no one cared that btc died.

It's impossible for some people to not care if Bitcoin ever "dies" (you know, actually), because Bitcoin disappearing requires from the entire world to operate in the most oppressive manner, and I'm sure lots will care about that. Even you might.

[Flexystar]

Renewable energy isn’t problem here. If they wanted to have this infrastructure in place all over the world then they would have done it already. They would have done it for the fiat money production or may be for coffee machine too! What makes you think that they will do it for the purpose of fiat production? Things are mixing up here. It doesn’t mean anything but more than a dream that someday crypto will run on green energy and all the governments will accept the bitcoin as mode of payment. 

[LegendaryK]

What if

What if you go outside, take a few breaths, eat a meal, take a walk to your town, visit the parliament, maybe stay there for a while and witness that it isn't consisted only of communists who'd cut the heads of those who'd have dared to spend energy in disapproved activities, and get back home?

When Ethereum become #1 on CMK, What if no one cared that btc died.

It's impossible for some people to not care if Bitcoin ever "dies" (you know, actually), because Bitcoin disappearing requires from the entire world to operate in the most oppressive manner, and I'm sure lots will care about that. Even you might.

What if , Blockstream forgot to pay you for shilling btc and proof of waste.  

Nah, BTC can die tomorrow , and most won't care at all.
Only the fools that believe btc would make them rich if they only hodl. (Good Luck with that nonsense.)
Tulips fools did not see their collapse coming either.
 
Because all it freedom ideals died the day ASICS warehouse make sure the common man would never mine another block.
What you claim to care about in btc has already been dead for years, you're just can't see it thru your cult think.
Decentralization also died when the ASICS came online.
Only 3 mining pool operators hold BTC 51% fate on a daily basis.
Satoshi still has millions of BTC stashed away that no one knows of.
BTC onchain transaction capacity is shit, and no will to fix it.
Worldwide Proof of Waste bans are coming and BTC community too clueless to prepare for it.

[Finestream]

Simply stated, he believes that Bitcoin has no value because he is personally unable to see any utility, and everything else he said follows logically from that.

His statements prove his narrow-mindedness, his lack of imagination, his lack of vision, his ignorance, and most importantly his arrogance more than anything else.

If he is a fiat enthusiast, then he must be a bitcoin hater probably. Because the only thing that a single individual will not believe on bitcoin because he has not experienced any good thing about it, that’s why he will take opposite side of bitcoin. But we know the truth, we know how valuable bitcoin is, we know it has a great utility, so we should not fall on Peter Zeihan even if he has been doing great in most of his podcast.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Tulips fools did not see their collapse coming either.

Great analogy. It's just that plants don't let you send cash across the globe in a censorship resistant, private fashion, for a nickle. Maybe you could come up with something that isn't numerously debunked every once a few years? You know. Just to not look benighted.

Satoshi still has millions of BTC stashed away that no one knows of.

Evidence isn't your strong point, is it?

[Wind_FURY]

I believe the "so many miners" that are going bankrupt, you are saying they're all Bitcoin miners?
Can you show us a list of who those "so many miners" that went bankrupt?

 

Bitcoin Proof of Waste miners going bankrupt just in the US alone.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-file-chapter-11-bankruptcy-cnbc-2022-12-21/

Austin, Texas-based Core Scientific attributed its bankruptcy to slumping bitcoin prices, rising energy costs for bitcoin mining and a $7 million unpaid debt from U.S. crypto lender Celsius Network

https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2022/09/30/bitcoin-minings-first-major-bankruptcy-creates-uncertainty-for-key-partners-opportunity-for-others/?sh=34de5dbb657d

Compute North, the second largest bitcoin mining hosting provider in the US, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/bitcoin-miner-greenidge-gree-btc-warns-of-bankruptcy-restructures-debt

Greenidge Generation Holdings Inc., once one of the largest public Bitcoin miners in the US, warned that it may seek bankruptcy protection

No one using Proof of Stake has had to declared bankruptcy because of lack of VC money to cover their ridiculous waste of energy.  

What if , you really need to think about?
What if the entire world places a carbon tax on btc?
What if the world governments just outright ban proof of waste?
What if, all of the btc cult members are wrong and btc only falls in price from now on?
What if, you were just an idiot that believe a outdated slow failing tech product was a deity?
When Ethereum become #1 on CMK, What if no one cared that btc died.  

That's not so many. Hashng power is also at a level higher than the previous cycle.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#alltime

Plus calling Proof of Stake "better" than Proof of Work merely because it's "wasteful" shows that the person doesn't understand that Proof of Stake is a system for consensus by comittee. Proof of Stake will always be inferior than Proof of Work. It's simply the truth, ask any capable developer who is not a charlatan.