Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming?

[NeuroticFish]

I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.

$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.

In October I was already said that 8k is the worse case scenario, still, even then, I was thinking that we're late in the crypto winter and we will probably not touch that.
Since the 19k of October the current 16k is not so bad if we think in terms of going down, but I was expecting we will start going up...

So in January we may see 9k you say... and then what? Should I start asking like the newbies about the end of this bear market: are we there yet? 

[philipma1957]

guys here is a summary of  gold chart

feb 1992 = 353
feb 1993 = 329
feb 1994 = 381
feb 1995 = 376
feb 1996 = 404
feb 1997 = 347
feb 1998 = 297
feb 1999 = 287
feb 2000 = 300
feb 2001 = 201
feb 2002 = 296
feb 2003 = 358
feb 2004 = 405
feb 2005 = 423
feb 2006 = 554
feb 2007 = 665
feb 2008 = 924
feb 2009 = 941. and pivot to BTC in your dreams


my point is how do you know when we go up look if you grabbed 353,000 in gold in 1992 you would feel terrible with only 201,000 value in 2001  so look above gold pretty much sucked if you got in 1992 and held to 2003.  break even with a 12 year hodl and no real peaks that you missed.

None of us know that BTC will have a 4 year flat slot in the 14-18k range were are 4 months in and have 44 months to go.

Gold showed a 1992 to 2003 in a 200-400 slot and basically 353 became 358 if you held that long.

Proof to me that BTC is going to sideways slot 13 to 19k

or proof it is going to leave the slot in the 2023-2026 time frame.  

you can't I can't .  But it looks sideways for more time right now.

Oh those gold numbers come from here.

https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/

[serjent05]

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.

Fundamentally, the current sentiment of Bitcoin is far from breaking $20k, unless some big things happen like many giant companies investing in Bitcoin or the US of A approved Bitcoin as legal tender (which is highly unlikely).

At the current market sentiment, I believe the best outcome we have would be a sideway, due to the lingering negative sentiment in the market as we can read on the online news since the fall of Luna, then FTX, and now the mining farms while Binance is still on the hot seat.  If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.

[MoonOfLife]

If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.

If binance crashes, bitcoin is not only down 50% from now, but I think it will drop even more we could see $5k bitcoin or $3k if binance crashes. Of course bitcoin will recover after that but it will take us a very long time to recover. Binance currently dominates and holds the majority of the market share, larger than Mt.gox and FTX combined.

[bbc.reporter]

If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.



In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the business disclosed a purchase of about 2,395 bitcoins made with cash, at an average price of some $17,871 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.

Source https://cryptonews.com/news/michael-saylor-continues-invest-bitcoin-with-428-million-purchase-through-microstrategy.htm

[Lucius]

If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.

Why would anyone use such a meaningless indicator to try to estimate in which direction the market will move? Until recently, you considered Bankman to be one of the most intelligent people in the world of cryptocurrencies (need I quote you again?), and now you think that Saylor was wrong (and still is) in his investments when it comes to Bitcoin? Maybe he should have invested in NTF, DeFi or various shitcoins, so today he would have solved all his worries because he would have lost all the money he invested...

A smart person who also has money for investments invests for the long term, so what seems wrong to you today will probably turn out to be a very profitable investment in 1-2 years.

[Moeda]

I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.

Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.

If we follow the 2018 chart, of course the final cross-down is at this time before entering the lowest price stage, or closing the down price. If we calculate a 50% drop from the current price, roughly the price of Bitcoin will drop to $8,500.
This means that it is not the right time to go to the exchange to buy Bitcoins. At a glance, what I can understand is based on the chart and analysis of the price reduction that you conveyed. But many predictions now contradict the chart at that time. Many say that the current Bitcoin price is the lowest price before entering the next bullrun.

[FanEagle]

I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.

I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.

Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.

Just because it could, doesn't mean it will and that's the difference. Everyone assumes that just because bitcoin could go down 50% that means it will go down that much, technically speaking we could go down to 100 dollars as well, will we? We all know we won't. So that means there is a difference between another 50% fall, and 100 dollars. People (at least some of them) believe that another 50% is possible whereas nobody believes it would be 100 dollars and we need to figure out the difference between them to help.

I believe we are at the bottom right now and we are going to stay strong here and nothing under 15k is ever possible, doesn't matter if it is 10k or 100 dollars, its all the same, not going to happen.

[STT]

Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently.    We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices.   I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
    RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now.  Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world  is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all.  history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.

[minime0105]

If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.

[Oceat]

If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.

Yes, you are right, it does happen in the past where most people expect or believing what the News said that Bitcoin would go/drop to zero that's why there's a sudden crash of the market. It's the people that will make the Bitcoin price to move but if this analysis of OP were going to be expected it's kinda difficult to say so since it's just a speculation but most people from the past really learned their lesson so it might not follow of what OP's been expecting IMO.

Besides, most speculation believe that $10k was the best support or it won't even touch that price to see the very bottom although, we are almost there if you come to think about it but the $16k support is kind of strong to still hold this long.

[samcrypto]

If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.

There’s no strong buyer at the moment and probably many are still waiting for Bitcoin to dump again and I think in the first quarter of 2023, we might still see the bear trend with Bitcoin. Negative news are still here preventing the market from rising, though many are now optimistic about the trend this new year and we should also believe on that. Bitcoin can rise again if it gets enough volume to pump, we need more patience for this.

[EdenHazard]

Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently.    We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices.   I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
    RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now.  Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world  is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all.  history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.

True. We had a different sentiment ... a special one that might happen once in a century , can't really compare that to any other years in the past. We could get the bottom pretty soon and bounce a little bit back to $20k and then get the price down halved even more lower to below $10k if there is more sentiment in the macro economics such as the recession pressure etc.

Stay balancing the cash and the crypto portofolio for now.

[bbc.reporter]

If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.

Why would anyone use such a meaningless indicator to try to estimate in which direction the market will move? Until recently, you considered Bankman to be one of the most intelligent people in the world of cryptocurrencies (need I quote you again?), and now you think that Saylor was wrong (and still is) in his investments when it comes to Bitcoin? Maybe he should have invested in NTF, DeFi or various shitcoins, so today he would have solved all his worries because he would have lost all the money he invested...

A smart person who also has money for investments invests for the long term, so what seems wrong to you today will probably turn out to be a very profitable investment in 1-2 years.

It appears someone did not get the joke or does not see how Michael Saylor is presently a running joke in the cryptospace. However whether it is a joke or not, Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.



Also on Sam Bankrupt-Fried, I reckon I was also the first person to speculate that FTX was going to bite the dust. I speculated him to be the next king in the cryptospace after Changpeng Zhao. I never considered him to be the most intelligent.

[Edwardard]

Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.

What type of decisions? Meanwhile, we all btc holders have made a wrong decision too if we havent sold anything since last year hoping for a rally which never came.

I never considered him to be the most intelligent

He was intelligent but just in the wrong direction unfortunately.
Btw, your img is not loading, invalid error by forum's proxy server?!

[bbc.reporter]

Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.

What type of decisions? Meanwhile, we all btc holders have made a wrong decision too if we havent sold anything since last year hoping for a rally which never came.

Buying decisions. After most of Microstrategy's announcements that they have bought bitcoin, the price has fallen. These types of decisions are expected for us because we are the stupid money. Michael Saylor is the smart money.

Also, @Lucius argued jokingly that Michael Saylor should have invested in Defi, NFT and different types of shitcoins instead of bitcoin to have a better return on his investment. It appears that @Lucius might be correct. I found something. I will create another thread and avoid this one to be offtopic.

[Yatsan]

If we'd base on the past Bitcoin's price movement, we should be ready to wait for a year without any continuous upward movement on its price. As far as I remember, the moment Bitcoin and other cryptos reached its peak price way back 2017-2018, the market was a bit stagnant for more than a year. And if we would reflect that market behavior at the present, the downfall has just started on the last quarter of 2022. The next Bitcoin halving on the other hand would be on 2024. Thus, if we qould compare maket behaviors of the two mentioned years, ans if same thing would happen, patience will really be required in order to avoid mistakes as committed by investors before by selling too early without hopes of recovery.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

arm these shields boys!

[Lucius]

It appears someone did not get the joke or does not see how Michael Saylor is presently a running joke in the cryptospace. However whether it is a joke or not, Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.

For people who think like you, Saylor is certainly a joke in every sense, because a man invests in Bitcoin even at a time when most others are selling, because like every time we are in the middle of a bear market, pessimism is at its highest level, and tombstones for Bitcoin spring up like mushrooms after the rain. Maybe it's good to expose yourself to the end, in other words all the people (including Saylor) have been wrong for the last 2 years because they invested in Bitcoin.

Also on Sam Bankrupt-Fried, I reckon I was also the first person to speculate that FTX was going to bite the dust. I speculated him to be the next king in the cryptospace after Changpeng Zhao. I never considered him to be the most intelligent.

Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:

I think Sam Bankman-Fried is one of the most intelligent founders in the cryptospace, however, I am starting to be more skeptical about his agenda. In the article, he mentioned that bitcoin may have a future as an asset, a commodity or a store of value. I am scratching my head on what he might be implying in his statement. Is he telling us that bitcoin will not forever be no.1 in market capitalization?

[buwaytress]

Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:

Ouch, bbc. Heh.

So I don't think someone bought your account or posted on your behalf but when you make a habit of commentary on the news, you end up making contradictory statements every now and then. Think even I find myself guilty of that.

Perhaps time to leave them corporate personalities to themselves and not give them so much exposure? Particularly if you think they aren't intelligent...