Is Pure Bitcoin Speculation Dead by 2023?

[Bobrox]

Speculation about Bitcoin will be die never stopping from one side support for Bitcoin drastically drop or they have community how to make Bitcoin holder or investor are panic moment for selling their assets, but have another side of community keep believing with their speculation one day later Bitcoin back to higher price and waiting cycle four years moment.

I stand for both side and not really optimistic with Bitcoin will be dead based on their speculation hate have another legal digital currency at the future and make compete with USDT, but I don't really believing with other side always have speculative about Bitcoin reach $100,000 next time after checking how drastically Bitcoin price drop now, I think have possibility but I am trader with daily day earn profit than become long term holding.

[Yatsan]

Speculations are undending but it is just that the next anticipation of price increase is on 2024 because of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. But everything's uncertain; there may be things to occur which could boost the market value of cryptos next year and it will not solely depend on what is being assumed. Same thing with expectations of high market value; the opposite may happen. This is simply because market prices are dependent with demand and it happened that demand is changing from time to time depending on factors which could affect the interest of investors.

Maybe for now speculations are rather silent but not dead I guess. Once there are things to happen for next year, there will be changes with speculations at the present, either positive or negative, towards this industry.

[Welsh]

We still have block rewards, and until they've completely gone you're going to have some sort of volatility, and therefore price speculation. Obviously, that doesn't mean we'll always have these wide swings. However, the general idea is that the less block rewards we have, the less volatility. Since, it's literally designed this way to create volatility. I actually think it was done as a way of encouraging people to invest, since it could potentially make them rich, and thus it increases adoption. There's other reasons too which have been well documented, but I do think it was a smart decision in terms of adoption to do it this way.

Anyhow, price speculation is almost definitely going to exist in the new year, and very likely a long time after that. I mean, there's always price speculation anyway whatever investment you take a look at.

[lalabotax]

In general, it's not dead, but rather the condition of Bitcoin itself in the market. I don't think it will be dead, but maybe the price will drop more and not experience high movements because many people choose to hold, at least for the next bullish period. That's why, maybe in 2023, the Bitcoin market will be a little more different. Therefore, each of us personally must have various backup plans for unexpected events in 2023 later.

[buwaytress]

Anyhow, price speculation is almost definitely going to exist in the new year, and very likely a long time after that. I mean, there's always price speculation anyway whatever investment you take a look at.

Probably in my foreseeable adult life spent watching Bitcoin anyway, by that time I'm hopefully no longer having as many dependents as I do now so will just want to focus on subsistence heh.

Even after 3 halvings, we'll get enough new coins to affect these market forces, so that's a good 13, 14 years of active speculation based on crude expectation of new supply.

[redsun114]

Those stuffs in the list are positive and will surely affect BTC in a positive way once it's finally implemented but sorry because I don't think this can end the speculation in BTC. They didn't say that BTC value will be stable after it but it is still volatile and unpredictable sometimes.

When it comes to adoption the same thing is going to happen it will still be speculated because there will always be a country that will stay on the ban side and maybe there are countries who allow BTC before but banned it later on for some reasons. I am not trying to be negative here but im just saying the possibilities so please don't hate me for this guys. Peace .

[suzanne5223]

First we need to define what is speculation first:
speculation - the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain^[1]

This is why I don't always believe in what the people that only know the theory knowledge about cryptocurrency say. Speculation was basically an act of predicting or guessing the market's possible next or future price and no matter what he used to back up his claim speculation can never be separated from the Bitcoin market because its volatility in nature has already made it a subject of speculation.
Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

[BitcoinPanther]

Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

Because speculation has always been a part of a market and people who are active in the marketplace often participates because of their speculation and think that in the future they will get profit from their investment.  And Bitcoin is not different. Even though Bitcoin is far more technical than gold, its market is still subject to supply and demand which always triggers everyone's speculation.  Also Bitcoin market, the same way as other market is affected by the masses sentiment.  So we actually cannot remove speculation in everything especially when it tackles future growth and future price of the industry.

[serjent05]

Those stuffs in the list are positive and will surely affect BTC in a positive way once it's finally implemented but sorry because I don't think this can end the speculation in BTC. They didn't say that BTC value will be stable after it but it is still volatile and unpredictable sometimes.

When it comes to adoption the same thing is going to happen it will still be speculated because there will always be a country that will stay on the ban side and maybe there are countries who allow BTC before but banned it later on for some reasons. I am not trying to be negative here but im just saying the possibilities so please don't hate me for this guys. Peace .

There is no reason to hate you for your point of view.  Each one of us has one and should be respected.  I also think that the adoption won't be 100% successful, there will be a failure and there will be success.  Despite that, I do not think that speculation will die after some well-established foundation of Bitcoin.  I think speculation is already attached to whatever we do especially when we are talking about the price and future value of anything, including Bitcoin.

[BitDane]

Very poor reasoning. The author basically uses some random bullish points to argue that Bitcoin's value is no longer speculative without any clear connection.

I do think that it is a mistake of the author that he attached Bitcoin price to his topic, while he is trying to say is the Bitcoin Industry foundation and future adoption, will no longer be pure speculation.  I do understand that as, there is a solid reason why the next thing will happen and not just any random assumption.  I do agree that the statement itself is  a speculation though.

Here's some hard truth for the author - Bitcoin will always be speculative. Just like gold. That's the reason why investors like Warren Buffet don't like both gold and Bitcoin - they don't see any mathematical formula for approximating their value. So the value is just a pure guess, aka speculation.

You can't calculate how much a bitcoin is worth because Bitcoin is not based on anything, not tied to anything. You can't take a number of users or a number of transactions and derive the value of utility Bitcoin provides. You can't put a price tag on a store of value that can't be confiscated by third party. So the open market is the only thing that we have for determining Bitcoin's price.

I agree, it has been established in this thread the bitcoin speculation will never end.  What is not established is how we understand the meaning of Pure Bitcoin Speculation.  The author should have clearly stated his thought about this "Pure bitcoin speculation"  but he doesn't leaving us to have a thought that it is the same as speculation.

[pooya87]

We still have block rewards, and until they've completely gone you're going to have some sort of volatility, and therefore price speculation.

Major reason for the volatility is the demand part not the supply part, in my opinion. That means even if the block reward dropped down to 0 right now, we still continue seeing a very volatile market for the next 5 to 10 years simply because of how bitcoin adoption works. It comes at bursts and a big portion of that adoption is always weak hands thinking they can get rich quick who would also panic sell causing the big swings.

[Luzin]

This is why I don't always believe in what the people that only know the theory knowledge about cryptocurrency say. Speculation was basically an act of predicting or guessing the market's possible next or future price and no matter what he used to back up his claim speculation can never be separated from the Bitcoin market because its volatility in nature has already made it a subject of speculation.
Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

The one who hates will always give ugliness to the one he hates. But sometimes they don't really understand what they hate, so I think the bad opinions written by that person are not always true. They just feel rivaled and hate. So I thought let it go.
Regarding speculation, I think as long as the BTC community is still strong and they still believe in the value of Bitcoin we don't have to worry. Because it is the best fuel of Bitcoin and crypto. Although adoption or whatever is done for the near future speculation will remain. Unless Bitcoin becomes a stable asset.

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin cannot be seen as a payment means alone without due regard to its value and how it would affect the plans of the buyers and sellers. Speculation is not about the investment alone but also about plans on how to own/accept or spend the coin. The 2023 forecast might be difficult from a technical angle, but judging from the economic angle, Bitcoin might continue to fall this year unless inflation really has a long-term downturn. It might have a rough year as it did in the later part of 2022 when a sideways market dominated. Irrespective, it should still bias downward even if it touches some highs this year.

My conclusion is that whether anyone is storing it, trading it or using it for payment, regular speculation is still a good guide to plan better.

[Famith]

Someday bitcoin will actually be used for SoV/payments and not just solely for speculation — but I definitely don't think it's in 2023. If anything, it'll probably take more than a decade.

I think it will take longer, because Bitcoin can still be mined for 100 years, and we are fortunate to witness the birth of BTC. I think stability must be established on more user groups, which requires more time.

[suzanne5223]

The one who hates will always give ugliness to the one he hates. But sometimes they don't really understand what they hate, so I think the bad opinions written by that person are not always true. They just feel rivaled and hate. So I thought let it go.

I understand what you're trying to point out here because the statement appear not be made by cryptocurrency hater.

This is why I don't always believe in what the people that only know the theory knowledge about cryptocurrency say. Speculation was basically an act of predicting or guessing the market's possible next or future price and no matter what he used to back up his claim speculation can never be separated from the Bitcoin market because its volatility in nature has already made it a subject of speculation.
Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

Regarding speculation, I think as long as the BTC community is still strong and they still believe in the value of Bitcoin we don't have to worry. Because it is the best fuel of Bitcoin and crypto. Although adoption or whatever is done for the near future speculation will remain. Unless Bitcoin becomes a stable asset.

The Bitcoin community is stronger than how we think if not when the SEC planned to FUD the market in the year 2016 we won't have seen what is called BTC.
Having said that, Bitcoin may be volatile in nature but there's no asset in the world that's stable in price and this is the reason speculation can never be separated from every asset market.

[Vaskiy]

This is why I don't always believe in what the people that only know the theory knowledge about cryptocurrency say. Speculation was basically an act of predicting or guessing the market's possible next or future price and no matter what he used to back up his claim speculation can never be separated from the Bitcoin market because its volatility in nature has already made it a subject of speculation.
Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

Regarding speculation, I think as long as the BTC community is still strong and they still believe in the value of Bitcoin we don't have to worry. Because it is the best fuel of Bitcoin and crypto. Although adoption or whatever is done for the near future speculation will remain. Unless Bitcoin becomes a stable asset.

The Bitcoin community is stronger than how we think if not when the SEC planned to FUD the market in the year 2016 we won't have seen what is called BTC.
Having said that, Bitcoin may be volatile in nature but there's no asset in the world that's stable in price and this is the reason speculation can never be separated from every asset market.
[/quote]
Even at that time period the community is strong. Think of the present situation. The number of users and the market available have increased drastically. To destroy bitcoin is not gonna happen. The market being volatile is the best part and no asset have got high volatility as cryptocurrencies. It is high risk asset than the stocks and other forms of investment. The market by development is speculative.

[pooya87]

Having said that, Bitcoin may be volatile in nature but there's no asset in the world that's stable in price and this is the reason speculation can never be separated from every asset market.

To be fair bitcoin is not an asset and was never meant to be an asset. It is a currency that needs to become money hence this much volatility is not good for it at all. The only hope we have is for bitcoin to slowly decrease its volatility and big unpredictable swings, and since so far we have seen that we remain hopeful.

[glendall]

speculation will continue to flow about bitcoin and it can affect the value of bitcoin itself, now the level of trust in bitcoin is not good in my opinion with the case of well-known exchanges,
in that case the bitcoin price turnover is not moving fast but very slowly people are very careful at this time to invest their funds because one moment the FTX and , luna can occur on btc if the level of trust has decreased to 98%
but bitcoin speculation will die in 2023 I don't think so,

[bittraffic]

Someone is always going to be trading either spot or futures for BTC price, it's always going to be speculative just as any other currency whether in a bear or bull market. Even the USD is constantly speculated in foreign exchange.

But this conference surely is inviting more investors of crypto and they are all going to be speculative as well knowing that prices can take a dive after a bull run.

[Mpamaegbu]

Someday bitcoin will actually be used for SoV/payments and not just solely for speculation — but I definitely don't think it's in 2023. If anything, it'll probably take more than a decade.

There won't be any more excitement when that speculative nature isn't there. To tell you the truth what excites the community is the speculation around Bitcoin. Remove speculation from this industry and you will have it muted. Look at how the stablecoins are. There's no excitement there. People want where they will place their money in expectation that it will come out with a better ROI.

Invariably, OP should know that speculation is an ongoing thing in this crypto industry. It can't be dead.