Is Pure Bitcoin Speculation Dead by 2023?

[BitDane]

Just stumbled on this article, the guy who wrote this article is probably high on Bitcoin because he just came from Africa Bitcoin Conference  in Ghana.

I just came back from the Africa Bitcoin Conference in Ghana — an inspirational event bringing together pan-Africa and international leaders to talk about Bitcoin’s purpose over its price (thank you Farida Nabourema!).

First we need to define what is speculation first:
speculation - the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain^[1]



Article Title: AFTER 2022, PURE BITCOIN SPECULATION IS NOW DEAD
Author: RAY YOUSSEF

As the article stated:
This year was a turning point for Bitcoin and its community is now ready to cut the dead weight of price speculation.^[2]

And to support his claim, he presented these 5 factors that will support his ideals (quoting the explanation so that reader don't have the need to click out of the forum)

THE GLOBAL SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD BITCOIN ADOPTION

I just came back from the Africa Bitcoin Conference in Ghana — an inspirational event bringing together pan-Africa and international leaders to talk about Bitcoin’s purpose over its price (thank you Farida Nabourema!). As a legacy for the event, our team at the Built With Bitcoin Foundation opened the Bitcoin Technology Center (BTC), a learning and training center in Kumasi, Ghana — which is set to educate 400 people in its first year.

This trip reenergized my hope for the future. Even in a bear market, trade volume in Africa continues to press forward. Looking at our volume on Paxful, we predict further increases in both Ghana and Nigeria for 2023. Why? We’re still seeing growth in Africa because of the necessity for Bitcoin on the continent — it offers a cheaper and more efficient solution for people to send money back home, make payments and preserve their wealth. And that does not go away because of market conditions. I expect Africa to continue to lead the way heading into the next year.

THE DIVIDE BETWEEN BITCOIN AND THE REST WILL GROW

Bitcoin is backed by human work and has proven its utility beyond the West’s obsession with speculation. It has the ability to bank the unbanked and finally shift the tides of economic apartheid — Bitcoin’s impact cannot be overstated. The bulk of “cryptos” are for wild speculation and investing, relying on the morals of these shady authorities.

As we’ve seen with FTX, people’s life savings can be demolished when there is only a single point of failure. This narrative is the same game the banks have been running for centuries. I’m not buying it. Next year, we will see more Bitcoin-only companies and conferences as the Bitcoin community works to clean up the mess of misinformation caused by these bad actors.

GOVERNMENTS NEED A RETHINK

Smart regulation fosters safety, but poor- or overregulation stifles innovation and growth. We need to strike a balance and that comes with education. My hope for next year is that more Bitcoin companies come together to share why Bitcoin cannot and should not be regulated as you would, for example, stocks or wheat futures.

It’s our responsibility to also advocate for transparency — like requiring companies to share their proof of reserves. Without this, we’re going to see more far-reaching regulation like the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which pegs more consumer surveillance as the savior and touts Western Union as an example to lead the industry. We know how that narrative will play out...

‘NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS’ WILL GET LOUDER

The trust of the people was tested this year and I don’t blame them for shying away. Life savings were destroyed because of despicable morals and we need to earn back that trust. This is why I advocate for decentralization and for users to self custody their savings.

Using a non-custodial wallet means that users are their own banks, managing their own money and controlling the future of their own finances. In 2023, we’ll see more of a narrative and product push around self custody. I am already doing my part to amplify this message, including sharing a step-by-step process on how to self custody your bitcoin.

BEAR MARKETS WILL BUILD A STRONGER INDUSTRY

I am a natural builder and I have gone back to my roots this year. I’ve come to realize that we are not building products for how people live their daily lives in the Global South. There is too much focus on the unrealistic dream of minting millionaires and not enough around the pain points that keeps billions of people enclosed in economic apartheid. Next year, you will see more products that cater to the true needs of everyday people and offer them solutions for remittance, payments, e-commerce, wealth preservation and basic communication.

While reading the article, I am convinced that Pure Bitcoin Speculation is Dead by 2023.  With all the development and achievement of Bitcoin, it has set its ground to be one of the ever growing industry in the market.  It is not a speculation anymore that Bitcoin will be globally adopted.  We can have references as why Bitcoin will be adopted by countries in fact there is already a proof for it.

With the collapse of central exchanges and popular altcoin demise such as FTT, LUNA and many other altcoin hack, Bitcoin will continue to get the bigger part of the pie.  It also become stronger when ETH moved to POS.

With the current bear market, the longer the bear market stay the better the industry is filtered out.  So surviving this bear market will make Bitcoin even stronger.  

So yeah, people do not need to speculate about Bitcoin growth anymore because Bitcoin had already established a good foundation we just need to wait for the good result.

There is a chance that many of us does not share the same point of view as the writer, so what do you think?  Is pure Bitcoin speculation will be dead after 2022?


[1] https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/speculation
[2] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/in-2022-bitcoin-price-speculation-died

[Apocollapse]

Nah Bitcoin price is still not steady, this year we're suffering around 40-50% price change. Although I know Bitcoin journey is very bright and there's many good news around it, but don't forget those good news has been started since 2017 where Bitcoin price reach $20K and this year El Salvador accept Bitcoin as legal tender. But does Bitcoin become a legal tender in El Salvador make Bitcoin price increase and reduce the volatility? nope.

So it's still really long to wait Bitcoin isn't a speculation asset anymore.

[mk4]

Someday bitcoin will actually be used for SoV/payments and not just solely for speculation — but I definitely don't think it's in 2023. If anything, it'll probably take more than a decade.

[worle1bm]

I also think 2023 is early period to say that bitcoin prices will not to volatile as we still see huge price fluctuations while we are ready to enter the 2023 with only few days remaining so OP do you believe it to happen this fast when the adoption is not wide spread? At this time people use it as investment purposes and whenever there is panic in market we see dumps and if good news then rise in prices but for it to stabilize it will take long then you said.

[BitDane]

I also think 2023 is early period to say that bitcoin prices will not to volatile as we still see huge price fluctuations while we are ready to enter the 2023 with only few days remaining so OP do you believe it to happen this fast when the adoption is not wide spread? At this time people use it as investment purposes and whenever there is panic in market we see dumps and if good news then rise in prices but for it to stabilize it will take long then you said.

Price will always fluctuate, but there will be ground for it why it happens.  I believe Bitcoin isn't a pure speculation anymore.  Anything that will happen in Bitcoin in the future won't be a guessing game anymore because several Bitcoin enthusiasts has created a ground for Bitcoin to proliferate and add sense to the predictions may it be price or acceptance.

Moving out of speculative asset box does not mean the price will be stagnant.  Of course the market will move up and down but this time, I believe, it will be on cause and effect and not because of mere speculations of people.

[franky1]

bitcoin has value which slowly rises naturally and in a slow smooth amount.

the speculative market above value is volatile and no one can agree.. yep its speculative by its very definition.

some want pump and dumps due to greed of trying to harvest idiots that buy high so that greedy people can sell high for quick greedy profits.. others want speculation to stay at a minimum to stabilise the price, and just let value periodically rise over time.

well
we are no longer in the era of the 100x speculation bubbles
we are no longer in the era of the 20x speculation bubbles
2020-2021 had a 17x pump and now we just happens to be on the after effect of a 5x correction
which is still higher than 2020's amounts

tell me any other asset or investment which if you bought in at $4k in 2020. you could turn into $70k within just one year.. where people are then still unhappy about such an assets performance

[pooya87]

THE DIVIDE BETWEEN BITCOIN AND THE REST WILL GROW
Next year, we will see more Bitcoin-only companies and conferences as the Bitcoin community works to clean up the mess of misinformation caused by these bad actors.

This is not going to happen that easily or in such a short time. It will take years for a well separation between bitcoin and the shitcoins. More people are definitely figuring that out and we are on the right path but we should also not forget that the pump-and-dump nature of altcoins and the possibility of quick and big profit in there will continue to attract gamblers. This means we will continue seeing "altcoin companies" and lots of misinformation in the foreseeable future.

‘NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS’ WILL GET LOUDER

Well, FTX was not the first scam and we already know that with each similar collapse more people learn this but there still are going to be a large number of people who'd ignore it.

While reading the article, I am convinced that Bitcoin Speculation is Dead by 2023.  With all the development and achievement of Bitcoin, it has set its ground to be one of the ever growing industry in the market.  It is not a speculation anymore that Bitcoin will be globally adopted.  We can have references as why Bitcoin will be adopted by countries in fact there is already a proof for it.

Speculation is about bitcoin price and market movements not the adoption. The adoption is on the growth path and you are right that more countries are going to accept bitcoin but the price is going to remain volatile and speculating about it will be hard.

It also become stronger when ETH moved to POS.

Actually ETH is a good example proving what I said about people not going to give up shitcoins that easily. There are still so many bag holding all these shitcoins and participate in their pump and dumps. Just check their trading volume.

[mendace]

I'm sure that now this bear market is leading to think that Bitcoin will stabilize and will not be seen as an asset to speculate on but I'm not very sure about that.  First I expect that when this global situation eases the markets will unfreeze and slowly BTC will start to rise again leading speculators to pump up the price.  Unfortunately it is still too early to talk about stability and mass adoption, look what happened to El Salvador they pushed so hard with the marketing campaign but now the situation is not the best if even the population had started using it after less than a year many have stopped because it's a complicated technology and the state wallet didn't help.

[DaveF]

Speculation (a.k.a. gambling) will never die.
Humans always think they are smarter and know better then the other guy and will try to profit from that.

Will people actually make money and be able to continue doing it is another question. But, it does not matter even if they all loose, that means others won and there will be the next group of people to speculate (a.k.a gamble) on BTC

You could probably make a case that there are people speculating on toothpaste futures.....

-Dave

[un_rank]

Currencies are designed to be speculative due to the fact that they are constantly exchanged and as such heavily dependent on market determinants like demand and supply. Bitcoin as a currency is no different.

So yeah, people do not need to speculate about Bitcoin growth anymore because Bitcoin had already established a good foundation we just need to wait for the good result.

This of itself is still a speculation. You are projecting that bitcoin is definitely going to rise in value based on the current fundamentals of it and how much it has established itself, you are also speculating that it would not dip further beyond 2023 and it would only keep going up

- Jay -

[pixie85]

I've read about Nigeria and it's an interesting case.

Their government saw an opportunity to launch their own CBDC probably after some lobbysts from the World Economic Forum wanted to make their country a test site for their population control.
They did exactly what the WEC plan was for the world: banned bitcoin and tried to substitute it with their centralized shitcoin but guess what, people opposed this. They were still using bitcoin despite the ban and refused to support a CBDC, so the government lifted the ban and decided not to launch a shitcoin.

I hope Nigeria works as an example for the rest of the world. Beware though, the battle has just begun. They centralized shitcoiners won't go down that easy.

[countryfree]

Speculation isn't dead, it's just waiting for something. 2022 brought us several bad news, with the FTX debacle being the last one. BTC badly needs some positive news to go up again.

[Baofeng]

I think speculation will be part of the market, it could have been lessen though, but as we go to phases or cycle, speculation is still one of the bare bone of this market that's why it survived after more than a decade. And we could think it as positive or negative though, meaning in bear market it's bad, but we can take it positively if we continue to accumulate and buy cheap bitcoin and wait for the eventual bull run to make huge money because we 'speculated' that the price will go on a new all time high. Like what we are looking for in 2024-2025, minimum $100k. And we could still think this as speculation that bitcoin could be a world currency. And seeing how volatile the market is still in 2022, that is the sign that the market is full of speculators.

[Ryu_Ar1]

This is indeed possible but on the other hand there is still a lot to be done especially bitcoin is still in the development stage.
The adoption of bitcoin is already felt but I think 2023 is too soon for that but that doesn't mean it won't become a reality because hope will continue although I think it will still take time and it won't happen in 2023 which is only a few days away.

[BlackBoss_]

Are pure stock, real estate, gold speculations dead?

They are older and more traditional markets than Bitcoin market.

Logic thinking, Bitcoin speculation won't be dead anytime in future.

People will continue to make sayings like "Bitcoin is dead" as they did 400+ times already.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

[BitDane]

I always agree that traders and investors participation in the market are driven by speculation.  But the growth of Bitcoin isn't just based on pure speculation anymore since people are busy laying foundation for adoption.  The growth now depends on the cause and effect of the action of people that is working towards the future of Bitcoin.  If there is something that happen to Bitcoin positively or negatively,  there is a reason for it.  

I both agree with what has been replied in the thread and what is stated on the article, its that the author's point does not align with the many replies in this thread because we are too focus on the market movement which automatically tag all action as speculations while author wanted to express something else.

The presence of Pure on the speculation gives another depth to the terms which somehow makes me think that pure speculation means everything happen without a reason and just pure guesses which the author wanted to refute by providing evidences why the next thing will happen.  

I agree even the author expresses a speculation but it isn't pure speculation because there is reasons and facts that those thing might possibly happen.

Taken into facts that speculation will never ceased to exist in the market.  It is the core reason why the market is fluctuating and alive.  Without traders and investors speculation, the market will be boring as hell.  

[avikz]

There is a chance that many of us does not share the same point of view as the writer, so what do you think?  Is pure Bitcoin speculation will be dead after 2022?

There's no way bitcoin speculation will be dead ever! Speculative activity is one of the most prominent activity in the crypto market. Millions of traders live by this activity. If speculation goes dead, the market will also go dead. So I don't see any chance. Rather the bitcoin market thrives on speculation.

But there are some positive points as well. The speculation can only go dead if the price of bitcoin stabilizes. If that happens, more and more merchants around the world might see value in accepting bitcoin for their business. Especially those who need rolling cash for their business and can't hold of their bitcoins. Many companies will want to buy bitcoin as a cash equivalent. But bitcoin's price is not going to stabilize anytime soon!

[lionheart78]

Speculation is what fuel the market, so it will never be dead in a lively market anyway.  Any prediction, or thought of something to happen in the future is speculation may it be a guess or with some valid sources.  No one knows what will happen in the future so all we can do is speculate by weighing in what is the things in hand, the current events, the development, the support, opposition, etc...  Anything that is yet to happen cannot be considered as a fact and always will be speculation.

But there are some positive points as well. The speculation can only go dead if the price of bitcoin stabilizes. If that happens, more and more merchants around the world might see value in accepting bitcoin for their business. Especially those who need rolling cash for their business and can't hold of their bitcoins. Many companies will want to buy bitcoin as a cash equivalent. But bitcoin's price is not going to stabilize anytime soon!

Even with the price of Bitcoin stabilizing, speculation will never end because there will always be future thoughts like ideas and expectations that are always considered as speculation.  Even our answer that pertains to the future of Bitcoin is considered speculation according to the definition. 

[hatshepsut93]

Very poor reasoning. The author basically uses some random bullish points to argue that Bitcoin's value is no longer speculative without any clear connection.

Here's some hard truth for the author - Bitcoin will always be speculative. Just like gold. That's the reason why investors like Warren Buffet don't like both gold and Bitcoin - they don't see any mathematical formula for approximating their value. So the value is just a pure guess, aka speculation.

You can't calculate how much a bitcoin is worth because Bitcoin is not based on anything, not tied to anything. You can't take a number of users or a number of transactions and derive the value of utility Bitcoin provides. You can't put a price tag on a store of value that can't be confiscated by third party. So the open market is the only thing that we have for determining Bitcoin's price.

[yhiaali3]

The positive effect that happened as a result of the recent bad incidents of some popular exchanges and coins is that people’s confidence in Bitcoin has increased dramatically, this made people realize the importance of Bitcoin to keep their assets safe.

As a result, I expect that people will begin to realize the importance of Bitcoin as a currency and a means of payment, and not as an investment asset for speculation. When this happens, we will see greater stability in the price of Bitcoin and also a significant increase in the spread of Bitcoin around the world.

This means that people stop speculating with bitcoin and using it to preserve the value of their assets but I expect that will take a bit longer, not in 2023.