Rapid change in funding rate behaviour, what does it mean for traders?

[Edwardard]

There's suddenly a change in the funding rate pattern for BTC on bybit, I never expected the funding to favour shorts at these prices (~16k). The funding used to be mostly negative to +0.01% at the most since last few months. But today I saw +0.0144% and now 0.04%+.
Are we preparing for 2023 crash or its a trap ? Opinions?
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[adaseb]

I looked into this and it seems Bybit is the only exchange with funding rates this high. All others are flat at 0.01. Looking at the open interest there is very little change. So no idea what to make of it.

Looks like maybe a glitch on how they calculate the mark price or just a low liquidity period where a mid size trader can cause the funding to change this might with a mid sized order.

I am pretty sure in 8 hours after this funding it will be back at 0.01 most likely.

[Oshosondy]

Are we preparing for 2023 crash or its a trap ? Opinions?

You can not use funding rate to determine what the price of bitcoin would be in 2023 first quarter. My advice to people is to just buy more coins.

I looked into this and it seems Bybit is the only exchange with funding rates this high. All others are flat at 0.01. Looking at the open interest there is very little change. So no idea what to make of it.

I checked Binance, OKX, Huobi and Kucoin, the funding rate is at 0.01% all at the four exchanges.

Looks like maybe a glitch on how they calculate the mark price or just a low liquidity period where a mid size trader can cause the funding to change this might with a mid sized order.

Probably, but that is too high.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

There's suddenly a change in the funding rate pattern for BTC on bybit, I never expected the funding to favour shorts at these prices (~16k). The funding used to be mostly negative to +0.01% at the most since last few months. But today I saw +0.0144% and now 0.04%+.
Are we preparing for 2023 crash or its a trap ? Opinions?

Its not a preparation for 2023 crash nor a trap. Its just an short term inefficiency of bybit marketmakers/arbitrage traders. Maybe created by holiday and end of year parties. You should never make a long term asset price predictions based on holiday behaviour on single exchange. Especially funding rate that change frequently and is not connected to long term trends in any way.

[adaseb]

https://www.coinglass.com/funding/BTC

Its back to 0.01%. It was actually the highest funding rate for the year pretty much. No idea why it was high for 2 funding rounds. You would think the open interest had a big change but,

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/usd/bybit/open-interest-chart/btcusd_oi/

It seems mostly flat. So I can only assume it was something to do the way they calculated the mark price, maybe used some API quote which stalled. Looks fixed now.