looking OUTSIDE of the market candles.. there are other options to acquire bitcoin
the public CEX exchanges (the retail market)
there is also the OTC market(the wholesale market)
there is also the mining (the producers/farmers market)
by looking at the variance of mining efficiencies around the world
"industrial" grid electric prices go from $0.04/kwh to
"residential" grid electric prices go upto $0.48kwh
this puts a window of
cheapest on planet(value) - no one wants to sell below
expensive on planet(premium) - no one wants to buy above
creating this window of possible price range the market will work within
now based on hashrate of current generation asics
EXA low(value) high(premium)
250 $15,509.84 $98,118.19
330 $20,473.00 $129,516.01
410 $25,436.15 $160,913.83
490 $30,399.30 $192,311.65
570 $35,362.45 $223,709.48
650 $40,325.60 $255,107.30
730 $45,288.76 $286,505.12
810 $50,251.91 $317,902.94
this means while hashrate is in the mid 200-300 the speculative market can speculate anywhere between $15k-$100k(rounded)
this means if the hashrate went upto 800exa. the price could still be at a low of $50k but could speculate as high as $310k(rounded)
yep at 810 exa on current mining asic efficiencies/recent models the bottom will become $50k
no one can predict where within this range the price will be of the range of the hashrate of the time. but we can see that the price is somewhere within that range.
in short 2021-2022 did not really go over the 260exa hashrate and so the (off market) measures had no reasons why anyone would dare buy bitcoin for $100k when everyone could have mined/acquired bitcoin for under $100k via other means
so right now i dont expect bitcoin to go upto $100k
everyone else making smaller number guesses are doing so for personal reasons. usually when someone buys coin they automatically decide a 2x exit price
so if this topic creator wants $30k this year its because he bought at about the $15k rate
so if this topic creator wants $100k this year its because he bought at about the $50k rate
(alot of people have a 2x multiplier of a 'within 1 year' timescale)
however these people throwing a number out into a comment he just wants to see if people agree to those amounts possibly happening in the creators time frame to ease his mind that exiting at his presumed 2x is achievable
well. unless the hashrate goes above 260exha and IF there is very HIGH speculation. it wont breach the $100k market barrier
as for $30k, its possible.. but within your march/april time scale.. well thats an unknown