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[aoluain]

Usually predicting bitcoin in a year is a hard task, this year it is specifically tough because of the situation with the global economy. Bitcoin doesn't follow any other markets but it is definitely negatively affected by the economy specially by "recession". Everyone is already predicting more recession[1] on top of what we've seen so far and when it is accompanied by inflation, bitcoin can't have a bull market. So that option is out.

I personally don't see any more dumps coming anytime soon so that option is out too, but that's unless nothing big and negative takes place like another major exchange getting hacked or another country (like Taiwan) being invaded, etc.

For the time being, I'll continue taking advantage of the reverse bubble and continue accumulating.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/02/third-of-world-economy-to-hit-recession-in-2023-imf-head-warns

Bitcoins 4 year cycle is constantly on my mind and have just entered year number 3 in
this cycle so I am expecting a strong year 3 overall, I opted for Bitcoin is waiting for
a recovery, the bearish trend is over in the poll.

It will be very interesting to look back in a year or two to see how the markets deal with
one major thing which "Bitcoin" hasn't had to deal with - Global economy and the resulting
recession, this is new territory. Also another major war on top of what is happening in Ukraine
will be a big test to the markets but overall I'm positive with my choice.

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[tokeweed]

^  The 4 year cycle could still be intact but really now we should start becoming more aware that it could also be starting to break apart.  The signs are there.  Just check the much touted rainbow chart.  Lol..  BTC right now is also trading below the last all time high.  That's something that hasn't happened before.  And if it so happens that BTC closes with another red yearly candle for 2023, having two red yearly candles back to back is also a first.  But if it closes the year with a green candle then the party prolly continues.  If not, there's prolly some sort of reset or something to start a new trend...  Dunno.

[buwaytress]

^  The 4 year cycle could still be intact but really now we should start becoming more aware that it could also be starting to break apart.  The signs are there.  Just check the much touted rainbow chart.  Lol..  BTC right now is also trading below the last all time high.  That's something that hasn't happened before.  And if it so happens that BTC closes with another red yearly candle for 2023, having two red yearly candles back to back is also a first.  But if it closes the year with a green candle then the party prolly continues.  If not, there's prolly some sort of reset or something to start a new trend...  Dunno.

I've been saying ever since ATH anyway, the cycle remains, but the peak amplitudes (bottom and ATH) are already weakened. The long-sought reduced volatility over long periods is here -- and it's been dampening every cycle (ATH to ATH, and bottom as percentage of ATH).

And as you mentioned, it's the first time the last ATH has been breaches -- many other clues that we said goodbye to cycles as we know it.

It could all go different of course... but probably not in ways we'd hope for.

[OgNasty]

Up only!  So far 2023 is turning out to be as predictable as the other rallies off the bottom.  I don't understand how traders could follow anything but the 4-year cycle at this point.  It's been demonstrated over and over again, but for whatever reason people want to trade the little news ticks back and forth with each other.  It really doesn't have to be so stressful guys.  Sell every 4 years, buy every 4 years and you'll do great.  Try to trade every little news article and you're going to lose your ass.  Buy now, sell in 2025.  It sounds so simple but yet so many people will miss the trade...

[Biodom]

Up only!  So far 2023 is turning out to be as predictable as the other rallies off the bottom.  I don't understand how traders could follow anything but the 4-year cycle at this point.  It's been demonstrated over and over again, but for whatever reason people want to trade the little news ticks back and forth with each other.  It really doesn't have to be so stressful guys.  Sell every 4 years, buy every 4 years and you'll do great.  Try to trade every little news article and you're going to lose your ass.  Buy now, sell in 2025.  It sounds so simple but yet so many people will miss the trade...

4 year cycle is still holding, but 2025 might be too imprecise as 2017 had a 20X variation in price within the year.
I would says what i expect the peak earlier than December of 2025, maybe again a double hump with the second hump lower (not higher) with the first hum coming by around the end of Q1 2025 (slightly earlier because the cycle is NOt exactly 4 year and we are expected to shift to march from prior halving being in may). For once, I don't believe in lengthening of cycles.

[pooya87]

It will be very interesting to look back in a year or two to see how the markets deal with
one major thing which "Bitcoin" hasn't had to deal with - Global economy and the resulting
recession, this is new territory. Also another major war on top of what is happening in Ukraine
will be a big test to the markets but overall I'm positive with my choice.

Regardless of the cycle and what we predict of the price, lets not forget that bitcoin is being put to the test these days to see how strong it is in a recession+inflation economy. Specially if something catastrophic like 2008 is repeated, we could see how strong a hedge bitcoin is for those who are fleeing the failing economy.

This year will definitely be very interesting economy-wise and with the new world order in place.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

It will be very interesting to look back in a year or two to see how the markets deal with
one major thing which "Bitcoin" hasn't had to deal with - Global economy and the resulting
recession, this is new territory. Also another major war on top of what is happening in Ukraine
will be a big test to the markets but overall I'm positive with my choice.

Regardless of the cycle and what we predict of the price, lets not forget that bitcoin is being put to the test these days to see how strong it is in a recession+inflation economy. Specially if something catastrophic like 2008 is repeated, we could see how strong a hedge bitcoin is for those who are fleeing the failing economy.

This year will definitely be very interesting economy-wise and with the new world order in place.

We have passed it, if we consider covid-19 run and it's subsequent effect to the world economy resulting to what we now see, inflation + recession, and then the geo political event in the background, the war in Europe.

So I think if we have passed the pandemic, then there's nothing stopping us from bouncing this year, although we are still in the middle of the bear market, at least the market is going to recover before the block halving in 2024 and maybe by that time every economy around the world is doing good already.

[kro55]

It will be very interesting to look back in a year or two to see how the markets deal with
one major thing which "Bitcoin" hasn't had to deal with - Global economy and the resulting
recession, this is new territory. Also another major war on top of what is happening in Ukraine
will be a big test to the markets but overall I'm positive with my choice.

Regardless of the cycle and what we predict of the price, lets not forget that bitcoin is being put to the test these days to see how strong it is in a recession+inflation economy. Specially if something catastrophic like 2008 is repeated, we could see how strong a hedge bitcoin is for those who are fleeing the failing economy.

This year will definitely be very interesting economy-wise and with the new world order in place.

We have passed it, if we consider covid-19 run and it's subsequent effect to the world economy resulting to what we now see, inflation + recession, and then the geo political event in the background, the war in Europe.

So I think if we have passed the pandemic, then there's nothing stopping us from bouncing this year, although we are still in the middle of the bear market, at least the market is going to recover before the block halving in 2024 and maybe by that time every economy around the world is doing good already.

It can be said that 2022 is the first test for bitcoin as we have to deal with the highest inflation in 40 years and the tense war between Russia and Ukraine. I feel bitcoin has really succeeded in proving it is a potential asset worth holding and investing like gold. If you compare bitcoin's drop with other assets like tech stocks, bitcoin is doing quite well, as its drop is said to be on par with some stocks. People always say that bitcoin is a volatile asset, but this year tech stocks were hit just as hard as bitcoin.

[dragonvslinux]

Can't believe how bearish people are/were on this poll. The idea of continued downside next year is the equivalent of accepting a multi-year bear market that could last up to a decade.

Only a small survey I know but the fact nobody is expecting a new ATH this year makes it seem more possible. Even if it lands us back in the $30K to $60K range shortly after.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

Well, 2022 is over, the results of the year are summed up, which means the time has come conduct the next survey. I would like to know the opinion of users about what 2023 will be like for bitcoin and what to expect from the market this year? Will there be a new bottom? Will the bearish trend continue, or will the market enter a recovery and accumulation phase? What annual candle will the price of bitcoin close in 2023? Will there be ATH, if not, what peak prices can we expect this year?

The year 2022 is the downtrend and chaos in the bitcoin market has been confirmed and it is not too surprising if we understand the basis of the four year cycle as you have often mentioned. Over the last few days bitcoin has gone through a slightly green phase of recovery and accumulation in the market, the points of resistance to change are becoming more visible when it comes to cycles.

But my forecast is that this year bitcoin will not find ATH, but will experience a phase of gradual recovery according to market reactions and conditions that allow it and I want the $40,000-$50,000 price to close by the end of the year.

In my opinion, now Bitcoin is in consolidation, reaching a new bottom, although possible, is unlikely. This year there will be a recovery in the price of bitcoin, but ATH is definitely not worth the wait. The maximum price of bitcoin can reach the last maximum of 2022, at around $48,000. By the way, it was from this mark that the price started in 2022, and it was to this mark that the price came before descending below $20,000.

Not waiting for ATH at least until the end of the year, a gradual recovery is the most rational thing to happen this year, because consolidation in reaching the bottom of the recovery hasn't been so strong to hold bitcoin for the next few months. Based on a mathematical calculation of the bitcoin cycle, this year the chance to reach ATH seems small.

But who knows that the four-year shift will be faster or will slow down a bit, due to several conditions that affect it and the causes and effects are sometimes difficult to review with the mathematical formula of cycles, remain optimistic about major changes for bitcoin this year.

[Marvell1]

Can't believe how bearish people are/were on this poll. The idea of continued downside next year is the equivalent of accepting a multi-year bear market that could last up to a decade.

Only a small survey I know but the fact nobody is expecting a new ATH this year makes it seem more possible. Even if it lands us back in the $30K to $60K range shortly after.

This survey was conducted at the beginning of January and at that time the market did not have a positive movement so people were still quite pessimistic about this year. But it will be interesting if OP creates a new survey these days as bitcoin is showing strong signs of growth. I guess people will quickly change their minds because of the euphoria that bitcoin gives them.
I still predict this year is still another bear year, I don't think the market will recover so quickly. We have 11 months left until the end of the year so anything can happen.

[Zanab247]

Based on what traders experienced from the market few days ago,made people to believed that Bitcoin is recovering and bear market is going to over in this month of January. The price of Bitcoin has moved to $20k few hours ago and the green light is trying to remain stable for the price to return back to $50 to allow those that prepared well in the past by invested a huge amount of money on Bitcoin to get ready of earning big income from it, because the price will surely reach $100k before the end of this year 2023.

[LogitechMouse]

I voted for "The bottom has already been passed, but there will be no growth this year"

It doesn't mean that I really believe that there will be no growth this year. I think the bottom has already been made last year and we are now in a phase the market will turn sideways like what happened in 2019. I believe that this year, we will be in a year where ups and downs are will be normal. We might be facing 2023 as the year where the markets will just go sideways but with a better price movement than in 2022 where it has all been going down.

Overall, I see 2023 as a better year than last year but it doesn't mean that we will see Bitcoin go as high as $25,000 or $30,000. My prediction is at least at the $17,000-$25,000 price range for the rest of the year.

[$crypto$]

Can't believe how bearish people are/were on this poll. The idea of continued downside next year is the equivalent of accepting a multi-year bear market that could last up to a decade.

Only a small survey I know but the fact nobody is expecting a new ATH this year makes it seem more possible. Even if it lands us back in the $30K to $60K range shortly after.

This survey was conducted at the beginning of January and at that time the market did not have a positive movement so people were still quite pessimistic about this year. But it will be interesting if OP creates a new survey these days as bitcoin is showing strong signs of growth. I guess people will quickly change their minds because of the euphoria that bitcoin gives them.
I still predict this year is still another bear year, I don't think the market will recover so quickly. We have 11 months left until the end of the year so anything can happen.

Many surveys choose this is that bitcoin is recovering, it could also be because the movement of bitcoin at this time is really fast from $16k to $21k, people will definitely have this belief without any pessimism in their hearts, it's just that we can't be sure whether this bearish has ended or not usually after this there will be another correction of a fast positive trend.
The journey is still long, I think $25k-$30k has the potential to be achieved this year. We can see from the current journey of bitcoin that will move later.

[Oceat]

I'm surprised to see the results of the poll as "Bitcoin is waiting for a recovery, the bearish trend is over" was the top answer instead of "The bottom has already been passed, but there will be no growth this year". Since to me that would be the most likely their answer but I can't completely say that the bottom is done yet but we are not actually done with the bear market. We still have a long way to go until this bearish trend will passed. IMO we might still get some pump over the years but that's just it there will be no ATH and I am still undecided whether the bottom has passed or it's not done yet.

[Franctoshi]

This week Bitcoin have had a shocken recovery move to $21k , which is why sometimes it very difficult to predict what Bitcoin is going to do in the future, and it's one of the amazing things about Bitcoin.

Generally with the drastic move today and in this January, it has brought in Volume and momentum that the market needs.
Therefore, My eye is focused on the market moving to take out the FTX price collapse highs (strong psychological price resistance level) which is around the $21.6k level , Though the price moved into that zone and a kind of kissed the $21.2k level and was rejected.

So Bitcoin starting up the year with such movement, is positive for the entire market, and too if that level of $21.6k is taken out , That will a kind of bring investors confidence back in the market to start buying Bitcoin once again and we will start to see a smooth ride towards the upside.  

[pooya87]

~
We have passed it, if we consider covid-19 run and it's subsequent effect to the world economy resulting to what we now see, inflation + recession, and then the geo political event in the background, the war in Europe.

So I think if we have passed the pandemic, then there's nothing stopping us from bouncing this year, although we are still in the middle of the bear market, at least the market is going to recover before the block halving in 2024 and maybe by that time every economy around the world is doing good already.

I hope so but the outlook is not so good. After the pandemic the governments managed to prevent a severe case of inflation by increasing the interest rates and prevented the economy from entering recession. But this time their attempts at increasing the interest rate to decrease inflation has had very little success and the economy is experiencing both inflation and recession. Keep in mind that increasing interest rates only works so much before it becomes ineffective and we are already at that point.

On top of that the way gigantic companies are firing their employees we could soon see a serious case of unemployment on top of inflation and recession which would force governments to pay them some money that would cause more inflation.

Then on top of all that we have another wave of COVID pandemic threat that could cause another 2020 style shut down. The situation in China is getting worse and there is a fear that they'd spread it across the world once again, maybe this time a mutated version of it.

[Tony116]

On top of that the way gigantic companies are firing their employees we could soon see a serious case of unemployment on top of inflation and recession which would force governments to pay them some money that would cause more inflation.

If we look at macroeconomics, this is something that everyone overlooks, although CPI has decreased, the Fed has started to stop raising interest rates but still at a high level. In late 2022 and early 2023, large companies began to lay off employees in bulk, and even crypto companies cut a large number of employees. So, it can be said that this year is a bullish year or that a bitcoin recovery is very unlikely.

Then on top of all that we have another wave of COVID pandemic threat that could cause another 2020 style shut down. The situation in China is getting worse and there is a fear that they'd spread it across the world once again, maybe this time a mutated version of it.

I'm not sure if the covid pandemic will return, but China's reopening of the economy means a lot of supply and demand chaos. Inflation is likely to rise again soon.

[Marvell1]

Can't believe how bearish people are/were on this poll. The idea of continued downside next year is the equivalent of accepting a multi-year bear market that could last up to a decade.

Only a small survey I know but the fact nobody is expecting a new ATH this year makes it seem more possible. Even if it lands us back in the $30K to $60K range shortly after.

This survey was conducted at the beginning of January and at that time the market did not have a positive movement so people were still quite pessimistic about this year. But it will be interesting if OP creates a new survey these days as bitcoin is showing strong signs of growth. I guess people will quickly change their minds because of the euphoria that bitcoin gives them.
I still predict this year is still another bear year, I don't think the market will recover so quickly. We have 11 months left until the end of the year so anything can happen.

Many surveys choose this is that bitcoin is recovering, it could also be because the movement of bitcoin at this time is really fast from $16k to $21k, people will definitely have this belief without any pessimism in their hearts, it's just that we can't be sure whether this bearish has ended or not usually after this there will be another correction of a fast positive trend.
The journey is still long, I think $25k-$30k has the potential to be achieved this year. We can see from the current journey of bitcoin that will move later.

I still believe in the possibility that bitcoin can hit $30k, or it will be a good end at the end of the year when it hits $30k in preparation for 2024. But the remaining 11 months will be very long, and it is hard to say that bear season is over and bull season has arrived. We just saw an increase from 15k to 21k, we quickly forgot that bitcoin fell from 69k to 15k.

I have a habit of going against the crowd trend, when up to 42% voted "Bitcoin is waiting for a recovery, the bearish trend is over". I predict that bitcoin will have the opposite movement.

[aylabadia05]

In my opinion, now Bitcoin is in consolidation, reaching a new bottom, although possible, is unlikely. This year there will be a recovery in the price of bitcoin, but ATH is definitely not worth the wait. The maximum price of bitcoin can reach the last maximum of 2022, at around $48,000. By the way, it was from this mark that the price started in 2022, and it was to this mark that the price came before descending below $20,000.

Not much of a shift from what the OP imagines is likely to happen to Bitcoin price this year. Entering the second week of early 2023, the price chart looks beautiful. Although still not strong, this is likely the start of a new bottom, although the possibility of an ATH is still not certain this year.

chart: coinmarketcap.com

With the price movement having reached $21K, there is now a bit of relief and new hope for the year to come. We certainly hope that what is happening in the market is a good sign from the previous year.