Good economic news from the US, EU and China!

[Lucius]

Regardless of the fact that it is still too early to predict what this year will be like in comparison to 2022 and a few years back, the news says that the beginning of this year is very optimistic considering that growth has been recorded on all world stock markets, and accordingly we can see that the price of Bitcoin has risen slightly after a long time.

First of all, encouragement came from the US, where all indices rose from 1% to 1.5%, while the news that the number of employees increased by 223 000 was positively echoed - and investors hope that the FED will still reduce interest rates, perhaps even this year.

Good news also comes from the EU, where the stock market indices rose between 3% and 6%, which can mostly be attributed to the data that the decline in production activity has very likely bottomed out and recovery is expected. A drop in inflation in the Eurozone was also recorded, and this could mean that the ECB will also be more lenient when it comes to raising interest rates.

There is also good news coming from China, where the restrictive COVID measures have been eased suddenly, which means that their economy could begin to grow rapidly with the news that the Chinese central bank is announcing support for the domestic economy.

Each piece of news may not mean much, but if we look at the bigger picture, the conditions are created for the world economy to begin to recover. Of course, this entire recovery is still in the shadow of the war in Ukraine, but somehow it seems to me that this war will end this year, either with the victory of Ukraine, which is getting stronger militarily every day, or with the withdrawal of Russia from the occupied territories.

Source (Translated)

Edited : Translated link fixed

[1714209081]

1714209081

[1714209081]

1714209081

[Casdinyard]

As the market is still relatively weak we can't expect interest rates reducing any time soon. It's one of the only corks the economy coulf plug to avoid a collapse of fiat value..although the notion wouldn't be so farfetchrd if the growth and recovery carries on at least until Q2 of this year.

As for China's COVID situation, this has been a long time coming honestly. Nevermind that they're ground zero, the fact that it only took them now to finally lay fhe heavy hand a little lower is a bit hopeful yet disappointing at tbe same time. It took them countless protests and a what seemed to be impending dethronement of Xi Jinping to finally realize they have to listen to the people.

Anyways, you're right, 2023 is shining upon us, but let's not be ahead of ourselves, 11 months are still left and things may go south when we least expect it. Better be safe than sorry.

[Gozie51]

There is also good news coming from China, where the restrictive COVID measures have been eased suddenly, which means that their economy could begin to grow rapidly with the news that the Chinese central bank is announcing support for the domestic economy.

Each piece of news may not mean much, but if we look at the bigger picture, the conditions are created for the world economy to begin to recover. Of course, this entire recovery is still in the shadow of the war in Ukraine, but somehow it seems to me that this war will end this year, either with the victory of Ukraine, which is getting stronger militarily every day, or with the withdrawal of Russia from the occupied territories.

These two paragraphs carry two vital message that I carry from your information. My question is do we think covid-19 pandemic was the part of the major reason that the world economy is struggling and some countries are nearing recession or that the Russian Ukraine war is the major reason and in my own view I think covid-19 was the major cause because it caused or forced many countries to go out of production, it is global and its effects are so excruciating. The war in Ukraine is not directly affecting some continent like it happened with covid-19 , so it is a good news if China is now easing out covid-19 restrictive measures this can help full production to commence. One of the biggest obstacle to inflation to inflation is production.

[Leviathan.007]

As the market is still relatively weak we can't expect interest rates reducing any time soon. It's one of the only corks the economy coulf plug to avoid a collapse of fiat value..although the notion wouldn't be so farfetchrd if the growth and recovery carries on at least until Q2 of this year.

As for China's COVID situation, this has been a long time coming honestly. Nevermind that they're ground zero, the fact that it only took them now to finally lay fhe heavy hand a little lower is a bit hopeful yet disappointing at tbe same time. It took them countless protests and a what seemed to be impending dethronement of Xi Jinping to finally realize they have to listen to the people.

Anyways, you're right, 2023 is shining upon us, but let's not be ahead of ourselves, 11 months are still left and things may go south when we least expect it. Better be safe than sorry.

Maybe the problem is about our expectations because we usually expect to see interest rates reducing or inflation rates decreasing while in the end considering the current situation in the world and these countries, I don't expect to see the inflation rates decreasing or the situation on covid gets better in china, that's not because I'm thinking negative, that's mostly because I think even if the second quarter of this year still we will have even more economic situation in these countries.

[Despairo]

First of all, encouragement came from the US, where all indices rose from 1% to 1.5%, while the news that the number of employees increased by 223 000 was positively echoed - and investors hope that the FED will still reduce interest rates, perhaps even this year.

Interesting, it seems people who're quitting their jobs during October and Novemebr 2022 already get new jobs or back to their previous company since they need to feed themselves and their families

There is also good news coming from China, where the restrictive COVID measures have been eased suddenly, which means that their economy could begin to grow rapidly with the news that the Chinese central bank is announcing support for the domestic economy.

But the COVID case is still increase [1] so it means China is make a decision to open their country in order to save their economy although they need to accept their citizens will get infected more. I think most people already not too scare with COVID since there's no hype around, maybe with this movement it will reduce or prevent from recession.

I'd many articles are want to scare anyone with recession that would happen in this year, but it will happen if the whole economic is bad, so in order to prevent it, just working and try to survive during food and oil shortage due to Russian invasions.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

[Poker Player]

We can't see into the future but by statistics, this year will most likely have positive returns, both in the stock market and for Bitcoin. We will have to see how various issues play out to see how it materializes, such as the war in Ukraine, as you comment, or central banks policies. The rise of the stock markets is partly due to the belief of a rate cut later in the year, which would bring liquidity back into the markets and much of that liquidity ends up in financial assets.

Anyway, we have to think that if we end the year, say at $26k, that would mean ending the year in positive but we could not say that it has been a glorious year.

[NeuroticFish]

There is also good news coming from China, where the restrictive COVID measures have been eased suddenly, which means that their economy could begin to grow rapidly with the news that the Chinese central bank is announcing support for the domestic economy.

While I do read more and more news that are trying to imply that the world may have avoided a recession for now, the news from China are still overly concerning.
The number of people infected is very high and keeps rising rapidly, the death toll is overly big too, so this is far from good news. I don't know how is the economy going, but this may not end well. And what happens in China, doesn't stay/remain in China, we all know that.

[stompix]

Oh, no, this means that the doom and gloom and the total collapse of the European industry as well as our dream of driving donkeys around will not become reality as the major expert in geopolitics and economics that turned claiming this into his daily job has predicted?
So all this was bullshit?  

Who cares that gas and energy price is already so much higher than last year;
Who cares that 30% of the economy declared insolvency in the first 3 months alone and that percentage has been rising ever since;
Who cares that majority of industries in Europe have shut down and migrated abroad (capital fleeing);
Who cares that hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs when these industries shut down;
Who cares that there are strikes and mass protests in every country in the West and their clashes with the police is creating lots of casualties!!!

You know nobody has frozen to death yet so everything must be fine...

We didn't have 30%, just lol, 30% of companies going bankrupt in 3 months, so in one year 120% out of business?
What a surprise!

Further good news from bankrupt Germany:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-unemployment-falls-december-2023-01-03/

The Federal Labour Office said the number of people out of work decreased by 13,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.52 million. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected that figure to rise by 15,000.

And it's the same for the entire EU, the lowest unemployment in 14 years!

Furthermore, it seems that the recession everyone is expecting in Q4 is shrinking month by month, from a claimed 2% it has become a measly 0.5% at most, so we're going to have to wait for another world crisis, this kind of failed already.

Interesting, it seems people who're quitting their jobs during October and Novemebr 2022 already get new jobs or back to their previous company since they need to feed themselves and their families

Yeah, and it was expected, after all despite what r/antiwork claims you can't have 10 million people making a living out of walking dogs and eating pizza in their mom's basement forever. So all of those quitters are back at their jobs, better or worse paid, depending on their abilities, not on what's discussed on social media.

[Smartprofit]

I'm not sure if the fighting between Russia and Ukraine will end this year (it looks like it will be a protracted military conflict), however, optimistic news from other countries is a good sign for the global economy.  

China lifts part of anti-COVID restrictions amid growing protest sentiment among the population.  People are very tired of the problems that Covid-19 has brought into their lives.  

As for the reduction of discount rates (refinancing rate), this is a very real scenario.  And this scenario can be implemented as early as 2023.  

This is because investing in the stock market (and more recently, cryptocurrencies) is an important source of income for American and European voters.

[Lucius]

These two paragraphs carry two vital message that I carry from your information. My question is do we think covid-19 pandemic was the part of the major reason that the world economy is struggling and some countries are nearing recession or that the Russian Ukraine war is the major reason and in my own view I think covid-19 was the major cause because it caused or forced many countries to go out of production, it is global and its effects are so excruciating. .

Of course, the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus had a global effect on the whole world, and we are still feeling its consequences today. Although some will disagree, the data show that all the implemented measures were excessive considering the very low level of mortality, especially in the population under 50 years of age. Shutting down the world for a disease that has a mortality rate of less than 1% is one of the dumbest moves seen in modern history.

But the COVID case is still increase [1] so it means China is make a decision to open their country in order to save their economy although they need to accept their citizens will get infected more. I think most people already not too scare with COVID since there's no hype around, maybe with this movement it will reduce or prevent from recession.

You can sell the story to people for a while, but even the Chinese who are very obedient to their regime will not tolerate being treated like guinea pigs because in a city of 10 million people they are locked up because of 5 positive people. In addition, the Chinese authorities have obviously realized that the direction of constant restrictions will cost them a lot and have decided to change the rules of the game.

A little over a month ago, the world championship in Qatar ended, did you hear anyone mention the virus, the infected or the quarantine? Of course not, because everyone agreed that no one would mention these things.

~snip~
Anyway, we have to think that if we end the year, say at $26k, that would mean ending the year in positive but we could not say that it has been a glorious year.

I personally do not expect any spectacular results when it comes to the price of Bitcoin in 2023, but in another thread I voted for the option that the price could reach between $30k and $40k, which is of course a 100% increase compared to today, but still not something unrealistic in the expectation of halving next year.

While I do read more and more news that are trying to imply that the world may have avoided a recession for now, the news from China are still overly concerning.
The number of people infected is very high and keeps rising rapidly, the death toll is overly big too, so this is far from good news. I don't know how is the economy going, but this may not end well. And what happens in China, doesn't stay/remain in China, we all know that.

China is the most populous country in the world, and some numbers that appear in the media may seem large, but in the last 7 days the number of cases is decreasing, although I don't believe too much in all these data from China, given that the communists always say only what suits them. Besides, do you believe that since the beginning of the pandemic, only 33 000 have died as a result of the virus in China?

I look at the current situation positively, because the winter in Europe is mild and will end in a maximum of 3 months (maybe a little more), and we all know that then the virus problem disappears until next winter.

Oh, no, this means that the doom and gloom and the total collapse of the European industry as well as our dream of driving donkeys around will not become reality as the major expert in geopolitics and economics that turned claiming this into his daily job has predicted?
So all this was bullshit? 

All this is part of a political agenda that started long ago (before Brexit) with the aim of weakening the EU in relation to what was supposed to happen years later. Russia thought that the EU would be weak and allow the dismemberment of Ukraine, although they probably did not think that the US would send tens of billions of dollars in aid and completely reverse the balance of forces on the ground. I am therefore of the opinion that the main battles of the war will be fought next summer, and considering that everything from advanced weapons is arriving in Ukraine, that there will be liberation or withdrawal of Russia on most of the battlefield.

I am not a big fan of the EU, even though I live in it, although I have very good reasons for it, considering how the same EU reacted to the war that was fought 30 years ago in the heart of Europe - but it was not clear to me why some underestimate the EU so much that they predict complete ruin or some kind of winter apocalypse. After all, it is one of the richest areas in the world with a strong currency and various possibilities to resist any crisis that appears in front of its doors.

[Zlantann]

These are positive improvements that will only improve over time, but the essential driver remains the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If those conditions improve, market conditions will improve significantly, and we may expect brighter times ahead. 2023 began nicely, and I hope it will continue in this manner.

These good news are worth celebrating because last year was one of the worst economically. Nations suffered inflation and many currencies became worthless. But the beginning of the year have indicated that this year 2023 might be better than last year. But the world would experience progressive economic growth if the war in Ukraine comes to an end. The war has distabilized the economic space of the world and it would also take peace to fix it. Discovery an active vaccine or drug for COVID-19 would also be important for the quick recovery of the world. China is a key player in the global economic space and instability caused by the pandemic would greatly distort the world's demand and supply chain. I am very optimistic that there would also be much growth on the Bitcoin sector this year.

[kryptqnick]

It's nice that the year is starting at a good point, but the 1-1.5% rise in the US is IMO way too low, and the EU might be getting better only temporarily, as the energy bills are likely to hit consumers harder if/when this winter starts getting cold. So far, they were blessed with very mild temperatures, but we can't just expect it to always be this way.
And I agree that the war continues to have an impact on the global economy. I'm confident in the victory of my country (Ukraine), but I'd say that it will be great if the war is won by the end of this year, so there's still a lot of time left. Moreover, even after the war, the economy will take time to recover from the backlash caused by sanctions, finding new resource suppliers, and Western countries heavily supporting Ukraine militarily and economically. We all win get through this, but I don't think the economic crisis will be successfully avoided or (if you believe it has already started) over soon.

[Cryptodebjoe]

What I feel about the Chinese economy is that its beginning to implode first they're about to cut off about 5000 jobs in the banking sector... That's definitely not a good sign for them

[el kaka22]

It has always been known, well not always but it is a general rule of thumb type of deal. When you have a horrible economy, first you print a lot of money and cause inflation because that means nobody is left with zero money, they can survive, and that helps you get through the first stage, then inflation happens and yeah people are not homeless but they are also not surviving, they are barely paying for food due to increasing prices so you increase interest rate to slow down the inflation.

People keep getting salary increases every year, and inflation was high so they will get a lot in 2023 whereas inflation wouldn't be that high this year. This means companies will try to not hire more new people, hence recession but at least the ones that keep their job will be much better this year and will spend money so companies will make a profit.

[Lucius]

It's nice that the year is starting at a good point, but the 1-1.5% rise in the US is IMO way too low, and the EU might be getting better only temporarily, as the energy bills are likely to hit consumers harder if/when this winter starts getting cold. So far, they were blessed with very mild temperatures, but we can't just expect it to always be this way.

I think that the situation with winter and large heating bills in the EU is something that we have already clarified enough, and even if the temperatures are low in the next 2-3 months, I don't see how it would significantly affect most people, given that in most of the EU, food, fuel and gas prices have been going down for months. In addition, many countries have invested large sums of money to help their citizens when it comes to energy, and I think that most of us have heard about 200 billion euros that Germany set aside for that purpose.


We always have to be careful and approach information critically, but it seems that even after the announcement of the FED, the market still remained in a positive trend, which of course is reflected in the price of Bitcoin.

Inflation declined to 6.5% in December compared with a year earlier, the government said Thursday. It was the sixth straight year-over-year slowdown, down from 7.1% in November. Behind much of the decline in overall inflation are falling gas prices. The national average price of a gallon of gas has tumbled from a $5 in June to $3.27 as of Wednesday, according to AAA.  Also contributing to the slowdown are used car prices, which fell for a sixth straight month in December. New car prices declined, too. The cost of airline tickets and personal care such as haircuts also dropped. Last week’s jobs report for December bolstered the possibility that a recession could be avoided. Even after the Fed’s seven rate hikes last year and with inflation still high, employers added a solid 223,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching the lowest level in 53 years.

[slapper]

It's interesting how hopeful people are about the world economy and how that could effect Bitcoin prices. However, the global economy and cryptocurrency market are complex, interrelated systems, and other factors may affect both. Remember that the resolution of the Ukraine crisis is uncertain and might yet have a major impact on the global economy. Staying current and open-minded is crucial for trend analysis and prediction. Black swans can happen instantly.

Despite signals of revival in the stock market and global economy, now is not the time to make hasty decisions. Geopolitical tensions and the epidemic may also impact the economy. Diversify away from stocks and Bitcoin. DYOR and consult a financial adviser before investing.

Staying aware, studying, and producing money is best right now. No matter the global economy, the next cryptocurrency cycle (or economy cycle) will happen shortly. I think this will be bigger than the last. Whoever wants to play a large role or make a lot of money during that time must be prepared

[FanEagle]

It will take a while before we could get better as the mid income or even poor people, because it's not easy to get the benefits of a recovering nation as a poor person, it will help the companies and the rich first, but slowly we will get better and better eventually as well. This is why it's quite important to end up with something bigger and better.

This is the fact that we are not doing that great at this moment and we can prove that with data, but companies are growing their income which is once again proven by data. So, it is getting a bit better but not that much better at this moment, it's getting only a small bit better and not for us just yet.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, it's probably not very good news in regions where there's price instability and high inflation. The growth in the stock market indicates that there's more tightening to go, and in fact, makes the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank's jobs easier. The jobs increase also is another indication that more tightening should be done. But the cabal behind the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks are stupid, and would probably pivot prematurely. They should stick to the plan.

[Lucius]

They should stick to the plan.

Maybe they stick to the plan, but the investors have other ideas and want to do what they normally do, make a profit. Obviously, their bags are more than full and they decided to move the market in a positive direction, regardless of whether they know it can backfire on them.

One part of the article from the OP perhaps best describes the current situation:

The market is like a child looking for ice cream. The parents say 'no', but the child continues to ask for ice cream because the parents used to give in. So the market still expects to get ice cream, but not as quickly as it thought...

[Ozero]

All this is part of a political agenda that started long ago (before Brexit) with the aim of weakening the EU in relation to what was supposed to happen years later. Russia thought that the EU would be weak and allow the dismemberment of Ukraine, although they probably did not think that the US would send tens of billions of dollars in aid and completely reverse the balance of forces on the ground. I am therefore of the opinion that the main battles of the war will be fought next summer, and considering that everything from advanced weapons is arriving in Ukraine, that there will be liberation or withdrawal of Russia on most of the battlefield.

Both in Europe and in the United States, they did not think that Ukraine would put up such heroic resistance to the "second army of the world" and, before a full-scale attack, only weapons were supplied to Ukraine for waging a guerrilla war under the conditions of occupation of this country. But already after a month of fighting, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflicted a major defeat on Russian troops and forced them to withdraw from the central and northern parts of Ukraine, and especially after the stunning offensive and liberation of the Kharkiv region and part of the Kherson region, only then did they begin to give Ukraine not only defensive, but also heavy offensive weapons.

The active part of hostilities is unlikely to last long. Russia is already exhausted and lacks everything, especially tanks and ammunition. Therefore, the decisive events will be in the spring. It is expected that Ukraine by the summer can completely free its territory.