Israel and the Moscow-Tehran Axis

This article, in which I foresaw Israel's strategic cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan, was published in the Israeli newspaper “Our Country” on 11/19/1997.



   Alik Bakhshi

   Israel and the Moscow-Tehran Axis




  Turkey and Israel are an ideal pair of strategic partners.

   For the past two centuries, Russia has been Iran's most dangerous neighbor. Iran was the last obstacle to the advance of the Russian Empire to the Indian Ocean. And the weak impoverished country would certainly become its next victim, if not for the intercession of England. Moscow made its last attempt to carry out its aggressive plans at the end of World War II, when Soviet troops occupied part of Iranian territory, the so-called South Azerbaijan. Only the political talent and foresight of Winston Churchill, who foresaw the era of the Cold War, forced Stalin to withdraw the army from Iran.
   Subsequently, under American patronage, the SEATO bloc was created, which included Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. This trio formed a military-political shield against the possible expansion of the Soviet Union to the South. Given that Turkey is a member of NATO and has a bilateral mutual assistance pact with the United States, SEATO was as unassailable as NATO.
   Iran at that time received a lot of American weapons and economic assistance. The Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who graduated from an institute in Switzerland, was a supporter of the development of his country on the model of Western civilization, like Turkey, which made a rather bold step for the religiously orthodox East, separating religion from the state. But, if Atatürk had support in the person of the Young Turks in his progressive reforms, then Pahlavi did not have such support. And yet, thanks to petrodollars, the country was developing rapidly in technical and economic terms and was on the verge of an economic boom.

   Following American goods, the seeds of Western culture entered the country. American films literally flooded cinemas and television. Young people like a sponge absorbed everything new and unusual. The "corruption of the souls" of the faithful aroused the wrath of the religious elite, who saw in the cultural transformation of society a threat to their influence on the masses. All attempts to convince the shah to turn off the chosen path, which runs counter to religious dogma, were unsuccessful. Moreover, the shah did not stand on ceremony with his ideological opponents, and the future father of the Islamic revolution even had to leave Iran and turn into a kind of martyr for the faith.

   Everyone knows the tragic finale of the transformations of Iranian society, undertaken by none other than the Shahinshah (Shah of all Shahs) of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. A proud loner, ahead of his time, ended his last days in exile. Cruel terror scattered the sprouts of a new life. The Revolutionary Guards took great pleasure in public executions of women who dared to appear with an open face, or who were convicted of treason. Cinemas were burning along with the spectators locked in them. The black veil of religious fanaticism has again descended on Iran, protecting it from the rest of the world, and in an instant plunging the country into an era of medieval obscurantism.
   The civilized world was shocked by what happened in Iran, and only Moscow remained silent. The communists have always respected all totalitarian regimes that are close to them in spirit, be it fascist in Germany, dictatorial in Libya or Iraq, and now another version of it - religious totalitarianism in the face of the Islamic state of Iran.

   Knowing perfectly well that democracy is the main evil for their power, the religious oligarchy declared Western civilization the enemy of Islam and all Muslims. (This is fundamentally not true, if only because it was the military action of the West that saved the Bosnian Muslims from the genocide committed by the Serbs.) Naturally, America and its ally Israel became the main opponent of the revolution, and not for the reason that Israel is at war with the Arabs, Iran and he himself fought with Iraq for 8 years, but because Iran, like any totalitarian regime, needs an enemy to mobilize the spirit and eliminate the slightest free-thinking within the regime.
   Iran is trying to assume the role of leader in the Muslim world, and for this it is necessary to back up propaganda with some more active actions. You can't reach America, but Israel is nearby.

   The collapse of the Soviet Union, an empire that occupied a sixth of the land, changed a lot on the political map of the world, reshuffling the interests and military-strategic plans of many states. In the sphere of geopolitics, Russia is failing, especially in Europe. NATO is expanding to the East, getting closer and closer to Russia, and if the former Soviet Baltic republics and Ukraine become NATO members, then Russian naval forces in the Baltic and Black Sea will be effectively blocked.

   The situation is no better in the southern direction, where Moscow quite reasonably foresees a threat to its Turkic-speaking underbelly from the Caucasus and Central Asia. Here, the contours of the bloc of Turkic countries emerging under the auspices of Turkey from Asia Minor to Altai, which cuts like a wedge into the very center of the Asian continent, are becoming more and more clearly visible here. The possibility of reviving Turkic cooperation on such a vast territory changes the geostrategic situation. This legacy of Timur has a great military-strategic potential not only because of the space, but also because of the presence of huge oil and gas reserves, not inferior to those of the Persian basin. Russia undoubtedly fears such a change in the geopolitical situation and takes preventive measures to prevent the emergence of a union of Turkic countries.

   The weak point of the Turkic community is the absence of a continuous territorial corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is also the reason for the difficulty in implementing the project of laying an oil pipeline from Baku to Turkey. In strategic terms, the situation is aggravated by the occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory by Armenia. But in case of reunification of Azerbaijan with its southern part, located in Iran, the bloc will become monolithic. Naturally, for Iran, the prospect of losing a significant part of the territory, where about 30 million Azerbaijanis live (there are 9 million Azerbaijanis in Northern Azerbaijan), seems like a nightmare. This is where the geopolitical interests of Russia and Iran intersect, and the existing Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis just serves as a noose in this most vulnerable spot. In addition, the unfinished Karabakh war plays the role of a smoldering fuse in order to start military operations in this region with the hands of Armenia at a favorable moment for Moscow.

   In military cooperation with Iran, Russia sees a worthy response to the West for NATO expansion, and assistance in the construction of a nuclear reactor, which, with an excess of natural energy resources, Iran undoubtedly needs to create an atomic bomb, is a good irritating factor for America and Israel. And politicians who consider Russia already completely defeated are greatly mistaken. The Evil Empire is still capable of burning the Earth with nuclear breath in death convulsions or giving birth to its own kind in the face of Iran.

   The Moscow-Tehran axis should also protect Russia's economic interests. Russia cannot accept the fact that Azerbaijan is single-handedly extracting oil and gas from its shores and from time to time raises the issue of some unclear status of the Caspian Sea. Moreover, it should be taken into account that oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan may be added to Baku oil. Thus, Baku will become a transit hub for transporting oil from the Caspian basin through Turkey to the countries of the Mediterranean Sea. It is very important for Russia that Caspian oil be transported to the Black Sea through its territory, and by political leverage, using the Karabakh conflict, Russia will in every possible way prevent the laying of an oil pipeline from Baku to Turkey. On the other hand, the throughput of the existing oil pipeline through Chechnya is insufficient to carry out the pumping of the amount of oil that is planned to be produced in the Caspian. Moreover, it should be taken into account that oil from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will be added to Baku oil. Along with technical difficulties, Russia also has political problems due to the instability of the general situation in the North Caucasus.
Taking all this into account, the Turkish option for building a new oil pipeline remains the most promising. In this case, oil will become more accessible to all Mediterranean countries, including Israel, and then there will be no need to bring oil from distant Mexico.

   Thus, Caspian oil is the cause of future political and possibly military clashes.

   After a series of political defeats in the Middle East, Russia does not give up hope of resuming its activity in this region, which is not desirable for both Israel and Turkey.
   Having common political opponents and not having friends in the immediate environment, Israel and Turkey need mutual support and the union of these countries is the best response to Moscow's demarche to return to the political arena of the Middle East with the help of Iran.

   Turkey and Israel are an ideal pair of strategic partners. The combination of a country that has the largest army among NATO members and in the Middle East region, and a country that possesses nuclear weapons and is not associated with any military bloc and, as a result, is able to make decisions independently, represents a serious force that cannot be not to take into account strategists in Moscow and Tehran, not to mention closer neighbors.
   Hence the recent visit of Minister of Foreign Affairs Yevgeny Primakov to Israel, one of the purposes of which, I think, was to probe how deep Israeli-Turkish military contacts are.

   In the current situation, the conclusion of an alliance between Israel and Turkey would undoubtedly cool the ardor of the Tehran fanatics and make it clear that any intentions to upset the balance of power that has developed in the Middle East will not go unpunished.

   11/19/79.