Sanctions at work:Russia posts its second highest deficit in the post-Soviet era

[stompix]

Source

For some, this might be a surprise since we've been bombarded with news about how sanctions don't work, how Russia is making quadrillions from energy exports, , and many more claims that were simply unbelievable for someone who would know basic economics.

And just as propaganda fades away when hit by reality, so have Russian claims

Russia started the year claiming a budget surplus of 1.33 trillion roubles or 1% of GDP in January
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-see-huge-budget-deficit-dec-after-gazprom-fuelled-surplus-nov-2022-12-13/

A bit further down the road, the president of Mordor himself declared that Russia's budget surplus would come in at 0.5 trillion roubles in 2022
https://www.livemint.com/news/russian-economy-to-decline-by-2-2-5-per-cent-says-president-vladimir-putin-11662541324566.html

All of it went in smoke as sanctions start hitting, gas prices tumbled, the price cap of oil was agreed and many more, leading to a 2.3% deficit at the end of the year, and this 2.3% is what they claim, so just to be sure, add another 3% at least.

With gas prices being lower than last year during this period, but with Russia selling just 1/3 of it now, with Urals trading full 33$ down from a year ago to 52$ but with Russia so desperate to sell that it does so even at $38 per barrel, it's obvious what the budget income will look like this year. On top of that add the hundred do thousands of job losses once companies pulled out, a figure that will start to bite around now since a lot of them were generous enough to make a 6 to 12-month payment before firing people, and the hundreds of thousands dead and mutilated in Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands that fled Russia with full pockets, and those were the guys that earned a lot, a real brain drain that will leave its mark for decades.

But of course, there will be some that will say Russia is stronk, Russia has resources, Russia this and that but Russia is a shadow of the URSS that had all of those and much more, but still ended in the garbage bin of history! You can't wage an economic war when you're dirt poor and your ally is the one that should tell you a few things about the sanctions that turned the wannabe global power into an economy the size of Denmark but with 50% inflation and unable to feed its population, although it also turned out they are pretty good at killing and hanging their own citizens.

The bottom line is that when economics are involved, nationalism and pride are useless, you can lie to yourself whatever you want but this won't change a thing, you can dream of anything you want but this won't do any good either once you wake up, so the right choice is doing something about. And the first step for a population to not fall into this is by not having a dictator in charge, not being a slave terrified of going against the ones that should fear your vote, and stop blaming everyone else for the things you could have avoided. Not all resources on earth and all of humankind's glorious history will be able to offset the disaster a moron can unleash!

[Ozero]

Putin's propaganda covered up and continues to cover up the horrendous consequences for Russia and its citizens due to the military invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are slowly but surely gaining momentum and their harmful effects will continue to affect the Russian economy even after they are lifted. In 2022, which has already passed, more than a quarter of the Russian budget was spent on the war in Ukraine, and Putin does not hide the fact that next year even more money will be allocated for military needs related to aggression against Ukraine.

The sanctions against the Russian Federation imposed in 2022 did not destroy the Russian economy, as was first expected. However, they had a negative impact on many industries - from engineering and aviation to the export of oil and gas and other goods.

One of the industries in Russia that has been hit the hardest by the sanctions triggered by Putin's invasion of Ukraine is aviation. Spare parts for aircraft that were previously supplied from other countries are no longer available for Russia. Therefore, in 2022, experts recorded more than 130 dangerous incidents related to aircraft, as well as 28 air crashes, on the territory of the Russian Federation. In a few days of the new year, about 10 dangerous cases have already occurred in Russia.

During the first few months, more than 1,000 foreign companies left the Russian market. The Russians lost up to a quarter of their imports, and production in the technology industries fell by up to 80% due to a shortage of components.

However, the world continues to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. Next in line are new packages and the confiscation of Russian assets in favor of Ukraine. Therefore, over time, Russia will feel the consequences of the sanctions more and more.

[Zlantann]

Things would keep getting worst for Russia unless they end the invasion of Ukraine. The problem with the Russian economy is not revenue but increasing expenditure. The financial statement of the country showed that Russian revenue increased last year but the majority of them went to war financing.

Russia and its allies can't match the financial strength of the US, NATO nations, and their allies. China, India, and other perceived friendly nations are close to Russia just for what they can benefit from the country. At least they buy oil and gas at a discounted price from Russia. This year might be more difficult for Russia because it plans to increase spending on the war and current sanctions such as the cap on oil prices might start affecting the economy negatively.

[Leviathan.007]

We are talking about the economic sanctions against Russia and even many famous political men outside of Russia but still from what's can see Russia was so ready to be under pressure by the USA and some other European countries because they were expecting to face the sanction even before they start attacking Ukraine, they usually will keep trading out of Russia with other countries by using another as a proxy. so they can still keep selling their products and buy their needs without being worried about the sanctions, I guess even the USA and European counties could guess this reaction from Russia.

[DrBeer]

Russia. The government has printed out the last reserves: the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will start selling yuan to patch up the budget.
The Russian authorities decided to turn to the last non-sanctioned foreign exchange reserves to cover the federal budget deficit, which reached historical records at the end of 2022.

From January 13, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Finance, will start selling Chinese yuan from the National Welfare Fund on the Moscow Exchange.

As the Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday, operations will be carried out within the framework of the updated “budget rule”: if oil and gas revenues of the budget exceed the base level, the surplus will be used to purchase yuan, if vice versa, the currency will be sold, and the resulting rubles will be sent to the treasury.

In January, the Ministry of Finance intends to sell yuan for 54.5 billion rubles - so forecasted receipts of raw material rent will fall short of the plan.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/01/11/pravitelstvo-raspechatalo-poslednie-rezervi-minfin-i-tsb-nachnut-prodavat-yuani-chtobi-zalatat-byudzhet-a30515

PS following the results, Russia will also collapse the Chinese Yuan

Things would keep getting worst for Russia unless they end the invasion of Ukraine. The problem with the Russian economy is not revenue but increasing expenditure. The financial statement of the country showed that Russian revenue increased last year but the majority of them went to war financing.

Russia and its allies can't match the financial strength of the US, NATO nations, and their allies. China, India, and other perceived friendly nations are close to Russia just for what they can benefit from the country. At least they buy oil and gas at a discounted price from Russia. This year might be more difficult for Russia because it plans to increase spending on the war and current sanctions such as the cap on oil prices might start affecting the economy negatively.

Let me remind you - for the last week:
- India will join the sanctions against the country of the terrorist.
- China recognized Putin as "crazy" and the fact that "partnership with Russia was a mistake"

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[serveria.com]

Source

For some, this might be a surprise since we've been bombarded with news about how sanctions don't work, how Russia is making quadrillions from energy exports, , and many more claims that were simply unbelievable for someone who would know basic economics.

And just as propaganda fades away when hit by reality, so have Russian claims

Russia started the year claiming a budget surplus of 1.33 trillion roubles or 1% of GDP in January
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-see-huge-budget-deficit-dec-after-gazprom-fuelled-surplus-nov-2022-12-13/

A bit further down the road, the president of Mordor himself declared that Russia's budget surplus would come in at 0.5 trillion roubles in 2022
https://www.livemint.com/news/russian-economy-to-decline-by-2-2-5-per-cent-says-president-vladimir-putin-11662541324566.html

All of it went in smoke as sanctions start hitting, gas prices tumbled, the price cap of oil was agreed and many more, leading to a 2.3% deficit at the end of the year, and this 2.3% is what they claim, so just to be sure, add another 3% at least.

With gas prices being lower than last year during this period, but with Russia selling just 1/3 of it now, with Urals trading full 33$ down from a year ago to 52$ but with Russia so desperate to sell that it does so even at $38 per barrel, it's obvious what the budget income will look like this year. On top of that add the hundred do thousands of job losses once companies pulled out, a figure that will start to bite around now since a lot of them were generous enough to make a 6 to 12-month payment before firing people, and the hundreds of thousands dead and mutilated in Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands that fled Russia with full pockets, and those were the guys that earned a lot, a real brain drain that will leave its mark for decades.

But of course, there will be some that will say Russia is stronk, Russia has resources, Russia this and that but Russia is a shadow of the URSS that had all of those and much more, but still ended in the garbage bin of history! You can't wage an economic war when you're dirt poor and your ally is the one that should tell you a few things about the sanctions that turned the wannabe global power into an economy the size of Denmark but with 50% inflation and unable to feed its population, although it also turned out they are pretty good at killing and hanging their own citizens.

The bottom line is that when economics are involved, nationalism and pride are useless, you can lie to yourself whatever you want but this won't change a thing, you can dream of anything you want but this won't do any good either once you wake up, so the right choice is doing something about. And the first step for a population to not fall into this is by not having a dictator in charge, not being a slave terrified of going against the ones that should fear your vote, and stop blaming everyone else for the things you could have avoided. Not all resources on earth and all of humankind's glorious history will be able to offset the disaster a moron can unleash!

Talking about sanctions, did sanctions stop Iran? North Korea? Venezuela? The answer is no. Did sanctions stop Putin? No. Will they? Most probably not. That's all we need to know about sanctions - they don't work.

[EarnOnVictor]

A "moron" is indeed the fitting word for a useless tyrant showcasing himself as a leader. I don't blame him much though, I blame Russians that still allow an authoritarian to rule them for too long in this century. This is not happening in any advanced countries, and no wonder Europe has never been divided like this because of ego and an overdose of power of a villain. Only God knows the extent of the damage his actions and reactions have cost Russia, and this am afraid would linger for centuries to come.

They (the Russian government) are in the business of deceiving people through media but the reality is now getting clearer in the sight of everyone. There is no way such weighty economic actions meted out to the country would not have both immediate and long-term effects, the effect is only just unfolding, and Russia might be in a sorry state with time.

According to Thehill on a news credited to Forbes Ukraine, Russia has spent about $82b in their senseless invasion of Ukraine.



I view this as an additional pain for the country aside from the economic brunt facing. The money they were supposed to use for the development of their country is now being channelled to the destruction of humanity to the detriment of Russia itself. This is a big shame!

[Rikafip]

While it should be obvious to everyone that sanctions are making life of an average Russian much harder and will continue to do so (at this day and age no country can be self reliant and thrive), I don't think that main goal of these sanctions will be achieved, meaning Russian army withdrawing from Ukraine. Russia ain't democracy where people can simply replace Putin on the next elections, and I don't think that military coup is realistic so I expect this to drag on for years to come.

And the first step for a population to not fall into this is by not having a dictator in charge, not being a slave terrified of going against the ones that should fear your vote, and stop blaming everyone else for the things you could have avoided.

Thing is, people have the government they deserve, and since an average Russian likes "firm hand" approach Putin is right up their alley. I read recently that Stalin is also making a big comeback over there and its more popular than ever (well, at least since the fall of USSR).

[davis196]

At this point, I can't distinguish the facts from the propaganda.
The western propaganda says that everything is collapsing in Russia and the country will be facing a big economic depression followed by hyperinflation. Why there aren't any big protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg right now?
The Putin propaganda says that the Russian budget is under control and the rubble is stable(with a little decrease of value down to 70 rubbles per dollar). Everything will be alright with the oil and gas export, because Russia is switching to the Asian markets(which is a bit exaggerated, because it takes time to build new pipelines).
Which propaganda should we trust more? Western or Putin's propaganda? Or maybe both are lying a lot, which was totally expected.

[stompix]

Talking about sanctions, did sanctions stop Iran? North Korea? Venezuela? The answer is no. Did sanctions stop Putin? No. Will they? Most probably not. That's all we need to know about sanctions - they don't work.

Did North Korea attack South Korea? Did Venezuela attack Columbia? Did Iran attack somebody else?
And don't give the story about their might and their weapons and other bullshit, we've seen the mighty army that was supposed to parade its tanks in Lisbon in 7 days how they fared. Let's wait and see how Russia will fare in 2 years and if it will pose a threat to anybody else from there on!

Things would keep getting worst for Russia unless they end the invasion of Ukraine. The problem with the Russian economy is not revenue but increasing expenditure. The financial statement of the country showed that Russian revenue increased last year but the majority of them went to war financing.
Russia and its allies can't match the financial strength of the US, NATO nations, and their allies. C

Exactly, and that's the aim of those, destroy their revenue so they aren't able to afford a war, Russia can have Putin as a leader for 2000 years, and they can survive on whatever they want for another geological era, the thing is for them to not afford to threaten their neighbors as they did for the last decade, and right now it doesn't look like anyone is feeling like that anymore!

At this point, I can't distinguish the facts from the propaganda.
The western propaganda says that everything is collapsing in Russia and the country will be facing a big economic depression followed by hyperinflation. Why there aren't any big protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg right now?

The numbers I've posted come from Russia itself, they went from excedent to deficit, the number on the price of the Ural oil comes from the markets, you just have to think for yourself right now and draw the obvious conclusion, if despite huge prices in the past they went from excedent to deficit how will they do when the price of oil and gas crumble?
As for protest, common, do you really expect them to do so when holding a blank piece of paper will get you arrested and sent to Ukraine to die?

[Smartprofit]

At this point, I can't distinguish the facts from the propaganda.
The western propaganda says that everything is collapsing in Russia and the country will be facing a big economic depression followed by hyperinflation. Why there aren't any big protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg right now?
The Putin propaganda says that the Russian budget is under control and the rubble is stable(with a little decrease of value down to 70 rubbles per dollar). Everything will be alright with the oil and gas export, because Russia is switching to the Asian markets(which is a bit exaggerated, because it takes time to build new pipelines).
Which propaganda should we trust more? Western or Putin's propaganda? Or maybe both are lying a lot, which was totally expected.

The process of technological and cultural degradation in the country can drag on for many years..... 

Russia has a record low unemployment rate, no problems with food and energy security, and a fairly developed industry. 

Russia's problem is not a lack of resources, but the complete absence of a picture of a positive future and a gloomy depression of the majority of the population.  In the collective unconscious of the peoples of Russia, the Demon of Death Thanatos won a complete victory over the Angel Eros. 

As for other problems, they are purely tactical in nature and will be resolved one way or another. 

The peculiarity of a country like Russia is that it is a country with a very harsh climate.  Such a climate does not allow scenarios of complete technological degradation of the country to be realized. 

A certain level of technological development in Russia will be maintained, even if it is completely isolated.

[Hydrogen]

I think eventually everyone will see the outcome of the russian conflict with their own eyes. Whether russia wins or loses, everyone will know, eventually.

The point of attempting to sway public opinion on this topic, eludes me.

The sun will rise in the morning. Some might say: the sun will not rise today. But eventually everyone will see the sun in the sky! What is the point of claiming the opposite stance of fact and nature?

Personally, I do not like the idea of saying "russia is crumbling and has been defeated" as it is prone towards underestimating the extent of the threat. Underestimating events is a typical media trend. They did it when they said "Hillary had a 97% chance of defeating Trump in the 2016 elections". They said that Trump had already lost. Hillary winning the 2016 presidential election was all but inevitable.

I would like to take topics like russia and Putin more seriously. The same with other issues society faces.

[DrBeer]

Another portion of the "successes" of the country of the Terrorist

- The Russian car market collapsed to the “bottom” of the 1990s. Sales of new cars in Russia in 2022 after the departure of global automakers from the country collapsed by almost 60% compared to 2021 and amounted to only 687,370 units. This is reported by the Association of European Businesses in its report. December sales were half of last year's results and amounted to 64,072 vehicles.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/01/12/rossiiskii-avtorinok-ruhnul-nadno-1990-h-a30681

- Debts of Russians to banks for the first time exceeded 27 trillion rubles

- The State Duma announced the abolition of the deferment from mobilization for fathers with many children
... things at the front are going so "well" that even the fathers of large families are being slaughtered

- "Gone crazy". China says it has lost confidence in Putin

- Russia is one step away from the budget "catastrophe": the Ministry of Finance stated the collapse of Urals oil prices


Everything is fine in this news The most important thing that distinguishes them from Russian propaganda where they have already defeated NATO, Ukraine, and the Russian economy is flourishing, is that the above FACTS are easy to check and make sure they are real

The process of technological and cultural degradation in the country can drag on for many years..... 

Russia has a record low unemployment rate, no problems with food and energy security, and a fairly developed industry. 

Russia's problem is not a lack of resources, but the complete absence of a picture of a positive future and a gloomy depression of the majority of the population.  In the collective unconscious of the peoples of Russia, the Demon of Death Thanatos won a complete victory over the Angel Eros. 

As for other problems, they are purely tactical in nature and will be resolved one way or another. 

The peculiarity of a country like Russia is that it is a country with a very harsh climate.  Such a climate does not allow scenarios of complete technological degradation of the country to be realized. 

A certain level of technological development in Russia will be maintained, even if it is completely isolated.

Unemployment may not be too high (although it is easy to check one hundred is also a fake), but income is a question. Today, if you do not take Moscow and St. Petersburg, 60% of the able-bodied population live at the level of the poverty line. Otherwise, where, for example, does the debt to banks of 27 trillion rubles come from? 90+% of these debts are conditionally middle class. Homeless people are not given loans and mortgages, just as they are not given to the unemployed. This means that the working population has very low incomes.

Food. Many, but there are also nuances:
Again, judging by Moscow and St. Petersburg, everything is not bad. But then ... Reminds me of shops from the late USSR
By the way - do you want to know from what grain mass bread is produced in Russia? I'll tell you - fodder! This is grain for feeding livestock, if it's easier Or what chemistry is used to make dairy products? Read even the official studies of the dairy market

Energy security ? 50% of the population is supplied with gas, about the same number have water supply and sewerage. Oil storages are already full almost "to the eyeballs", and there are almost no gas storages - Russia almost always stored gas in the Ukrainian GTS. Excesses of produced gas and oil lead to the rapid conservation of deposits. But Russia cannot reopen it - it is a technologically backward country, and even in critical sectors of the economy it is 90% dependent on Western technologies. And you are talking about safety here

Developed industry? Are you seriously ? And what is developed - give examples that can be checked? Maybe Russia itself produces nails? Russia is a technologically backward RAW appendage of the West, dependent on Western technology and money.
do not try to pass off Russia as something less significant for the world, the only thing that modern Russia has succeeded in is terrorism, military and economic. He knows how to destroy but not create, he knows how to lie titanic, and he is afraid of the truth like the devil incense!

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[kryptqnick]

As a Ukrainian, I'd be happy if Russia was doing badly. And I do agree that there is some impact of sanctions, but it doesn't seem to be as strong as initially anticipated or as swiftly efficient as expected. Let's not underestimate the enemies and recognize that Russian economists did marvels with a very bad situation on their hands. The gold standard and harsh foreign currency policies worked quite alright to stabilize the ruble, and while people did get poorer and prices went up, we're talking of people who largely went through the harsh 90s and are also generally used to bad economic conditions and barely surviving but still existing. The goal of sanctions, as I understood it at the beginning of the full-scale war, was to bring Russia's economy down so much that it won't be able to wage the war any more because of not having resources to maintain its army and weaponry. Clearly, this isn't working, as Russia can still gather its mobilized people and throw away their lives in Ukraine but also inflict some suffering upon Ukrainians, it can still buy drones from Iran, and it can maintain its economy on a very poor level but just enough not to have a societal collapse.
I do think things will get worse for Russia and that sanctions will inflict more long-term damage, but it's going to take time, while Ukraine, naturally, would prefer to win the war as soon as possible.

[tygeade]

do not try to pass off Russia as something less significant for the world, the only thing that modern Russia has succeeded in is terrorism, military and economic. He knows how to destroy but not create, he knows how to lie titanic, and he is afraid of the truth like the devil incense!

That's what happens when you try to feed your government. This isn't even just about Russia, in any nation that people try to pay most of their money to government to keep it going, they will live in poverty line.

I am not a supporter of liberal views where we should all stop paying taxes as much as possible, just pay a small fee, and government should leave our lives as well, that's not what I support, I support a good supportive government, and even high taxes if it goes to right places and gives a better life to people, but Russia is a terrible example of this, and so is UK and USA for that matter. You pay high taxes, and they still do nothing for you and you live in poverty, then why the hell did you paid all that taxes for?

[DrBeer]

Talking about sanctions, did sanctions stop Iran? North Korea? Venezuela? The answer is no. Did sanctions stop Putin? No. Will they? Most probably not. That's all we need to know about sanctions - they don't work.

instead of 1000 words, I will leave 4 letters for you - USSR

As a Ukrainian, I'd be happy if Russia was doing badly. And I do agree that there is some impact of sanctions, but it doesn't seem to be as strong as initially anticipated or as swiftly efficient as expected. Let's not underestimate the enemies and recognize that Russian economists did marvels with a very bad situation on their hands. The gold standard and harsh foreign currency policies worked quite alright to stabilize the ruble, and while people did get poorer and prices went up, we're talking of people who largely went through the harsh 90s and are also generally used to bad economic conditions and barely surviving but still existing. The goal of sanctions, as I understood it at the beginning of the full-scale war, was to bring Russia's economy down so much that it won't be able to wage the war any more because of not having resources to maintain its army and weaponry. Clearly, this isn't working, as Russia can still gather its mobilized people and throw away their lives in Ukraine but also inflict some suffering upon Ukrainians, it can still buy drones from Iran, and it can maintain its economy on a very poor level but just enough not to have a societal collapse.
I do think things will get worse for Russia and that sanctions will inflict more long-term damage, but it's going to take time, while Ukraine, naturally, would prefer to win the war as soon as possible.

Greetings from Kyiv

Look. For some reason, everyone decided that sanctions are like a toggle switch, or a lethal injection into a vein - once, and that's it, the body cools down! No. Sanctions don't work that way. The sanctions are stretched out in time and have the goal not to try to quickly "neutralize", but to make the country's economy, financial system, industry, military-industrial complex suffer an irreversible destructive effect. It's like a boa constrictor that slowly compresses the rings around the victim's body, first immobilizing it, then it becomes difficult for the victim to breathe, and then a crunch of bones is heard. And even if the victim manages to fall out of these embraces by chance, this victim will never become as fast and strong as it was before - the muscles and tendons are already torn, the brain is already damaged from lack of oxygen, the internal organs are damaged and do not work as they should, and rather everything will no longer work as it was until recently, and the skeleton is broken and will grow together for a long time, but crookedly, causing pain later with every movement ...
These are sanctions. The USSR held out for more than 10 years until the economy began to suffer. Sanctions against Russia really only work for 6 months. And the scale of the problem is already greater than that of the USSR just before the collapse! So do not underestimate the effect of sanctions!
The fact that the terrorist country has some resource - I agree. This is 100 million obedient slaves. It is they who will fulfill the will of the miserable cowardly parody of the Fuhrer, cowardly hiding in the bunker for the last years ...
And then everything - emptiness, the rot of the economy, no slaves, NO-THI-NG  !!!


[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[Lucius]

Why there aren't any big protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg right now?

Even if there was a democracy in Russia like there is in some other countries, I would not expect protests in big cities because they are quite far from everything that has been happening in the last 10 months. If several hundred coffins arrived in these cities every day, there might be protests, but the fact is that Putler sends people from rural areas of Russia to Ukraine, because they mean absolutely nothing to him.

In addition, the average Russian is already numb to the point that he is always with the government either out of fear or some kind of pathological loyalty.

Which propaganda should we trust more? Western or Putin's propaganda? Or maybe both are lying a lot, which was totally expected.

To begin with, ask yourself who is the victim and who is the aggressor, and then who lies more and for what reasons. If you think that Russia is liberating Ukraine from Nazism, and that everyone who is with Ukraine is a Nazi, then believe that propaganda. When I see that the supposed second world military power of the world is fighting for months to conquer a small town in Ukraine with the help of mercenaries, then everything is clear to me - the worst days for them are yet to come.

Even before the sanctions were imposed, relevant experts said that it would take several years for Russia to feel their effect. At a time when such a powerful country has to rely on North Korea and Iran to wage a war, isn't that more than enough proof of how weak they are - well, the other day Putler was mad at a minister because he failed to sign a single contract (if I'm not mistaken, it's about passenger and military planes).

[Synchronice]

With gas prices being lower than last year during this period, but with Russia selling just 1/3 of it now, with Urals trading full 33$ down from a year ago to 52$ but with Russia so desperate to sell that it does so even at $38 per barrel, it's obvious what the budget income will look like this year. On top of that add the hundred do thousands of job losses once companies pulled out, a figure that will start to bite around now since a lot of them were generous enough to make a 6 to 12-month payment before firing people, and the hundreds of thousands dead and mutilated in Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands that fled Russia with full pockets, and those were the guys that earned a lot, a real brain drain that will leave its mark for decades.

People ignore the fact that a lot of educated and rich people, especially young ones, left Russia and moved in different countries. These people are the core of the country.
Who are the core of the success of the country? Educated, young people and the ones who have a capital to make investments into them. When the majority of people who leave your country are in this queue, I don't think that you are doing well in the near future because it takes a lot of time to upbring them.

But of course, there will be some that will say Russia is stronk, Russia has resources, Russia this and that but Russia is a shadow of the URSS that had all of those and much more, but still ended in the garbage bin of history!

Russia truly has a lot of resources but unlike Norway, those resources aren't used to benefit the society, they are either used for military purposes or to overfill the pocket of corrupt billionaires.
USSR was never as strong as people think, quality of life was very low and furthermore, pupils were forced to work in tea plantations too, overall forced labor was used extensively and I sometimes wonder why people dream the soviet union.

[serveria.com]

Look. For some reason, everyone decided that sanctions are like a toggle switch, or a lethal injection into a vein - once, and that's it, the body cools down! No. Sanctions don't work that way. The sanctions are stretched out in time and have the goal not to try to quickly "neutralize", but to make the country's economy, financial system, industry, military-industrial complex suffer an irreversible destructive effect. It's like a boa constrictor that slowly compresses the rings around the victim's body, first immobilizing it, then it becomes difficult for the victim to breathe, and then a crunch of bones is heard. And even if the victim manages to fall out of these embraces by chance, this victim will never become as fast and strong as it was before - the muscles and tendons are already torn, the brain is already damaged from lack of oxygen, the internal organs are damaged and do not work as they should, and rather everything will no longer work as it was until recently, and the skeleton is broken and will grow together for a long time, but crookedly, causing pain later with every movement ...

You're completely delusional. A tiny Caribbean island of Cuba has been under sanctions since 1959! 64 years dammit! That's a very slow constricting boa. Russia is not geographically isolated and is self-sufficient so my rough estimate for the sanctions to start working is approximately NEVER 

[DrBeer]

Look. For some reason, everyone decided that sanctions are like a toggle switch, or a lethal injection into a vein - once, and that's it, the body cools down! No. Sanctions don't work that way. The sanctions are stretched out in time and have the goal not to try to quickly "neutralize", but to make the country's economy, financial system, industry, military-industrial complex suffer an irreversible destructive effect. It's like a boa constrictor that slowly compresses the rings around the victim's body, first immobilizing it, then it becomes difficult for the victim to breathe, and then a crunch of bones is heard. And even if the victim manages to fall out of these embraces by chance, this victim will never become as fast and strong as it was before - the muscles and tendons are already torn, the brain is already damaged from lack of oxygen, the internal organs are damaged and do not work as they should, and rather everything will no longer work as it was until recently, and the skeleton is broken and will grow together for a long time, but crookedly, causing pain later with every movement ...

You're completely delusional. A tiny Caribbean island of Cuba has been under sanctions since 1959! 64 years dammit! That's a very slow constricting boa. Russia is not geographically isolated and is self-sufficient so my rough estimate for the sanctions to start working is approximately NEVER  

You are just wrong
I'll even explain why. And I’ll even start with such a statement, which you probably don’t expect from me!
So - for 50% of the population of Russia, sanctions will not be noticeable !!!
Yes, yes, yes, exactly. I have no nonsense, everything is true!
But there is a nuance. Their standard of living is such that it is WORSE TO LIVE IN THE SAME WHERE!!! Sanctions apply to those who have something to lose. And sanctions do not work on the lower strata of the population - as they were the lower strata of the population, they remain at the bottom of society, where it is no longer possible to go lower!

Here you are talking about Cuba - have you been there? Have you seen how people EXIST there? The sanctions have done their job - you can't live there, you can exist there! Card products, lack of usual services for normal countries, lack of any choice and OPPORTUNITIES! There is nothing ! This is what I saw in 2011. Then I know Cuba began to change, now I’m not ready to say what has changed there.
I specifically drove through Cuba. I thought I was unlucky, I ended up in such a depressive region, albeit a tourist one. It turned out - where I was - it was still "a good standard of living." Believe me - if you are left to live in Cuba for half a year, in a couple of weeks you will be crying with elephantine tears, just to be taken away from there, back, anywhere!


Oh yes, and about self-sufficient Russia - a very funny joke, very

Tell me - why, 6 months after the imposition of sanctions, Russia ran out of ALL stocks, the sale of gold reserves begins, entire industries stop, and the government hysterically demands to lift sanctions? And the "great geostrategist", in fact, a miserable parody of the Fuhrer, is not the first time begging Ukraine for negotiations?
Tax increase. impoverishment of the masses, curtailment of all social programs ... Even the relatives of the dead soldiers of the Russian army who are fighting a terrorist war in Ukraine (objectively - terrorists are murderers) are not paid "coffin" benefits, deceiving in every possible way (they promised to pay 7 million rubles, they pay from 30,000 to 250,000 rubles in real)