betting against the Public, is this strategy working?

[Maslate]

Yes, it works if you have more information than the public for example if you work as a scout, journalist, or coaching staff. Betting against the public isn't the same as underdog betting tho, since you can have more information and analysis but still bet on the favorite. Probably you'll be more confident about taking handicaps or other strange bets like corners, etc. Probably a fine example of betting against the public is on AJ vs USYK I, IIRC public favored AJ more since he's popular, however, many boxing pros know that he's only a bodybuilder lol.

That's something we have to learn, public bets are not necessary the favorites, it can also be the underdog of the game or fight. This strategy does not require a lot of job to be done, as long as you have a reliable resources, it doesn't matter if you have to pay as long as it's reliable, I think you can win most of the time.

The bookies are definitely making money from commission, but they probably make money easily from the public bets who does not carefully study their bets, when it's popular, they will certainly go for it. I'm wondering if there are bettors here who are experimenting using the stated method, please share your experience, are you in profit or loss?

[trendcoin]

It is not a method I would prefer. In my opinion, all gambling (including sports events) is largely an event of chance, but nevertheless, I aim to use even the smallest detail of information in all my bets. For example, if I'm going to predict the outcome of a match, I look at the squads of the teams in that match and their performance in the last matches and then make a decision. Other methods are not my preferred methods.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Though it depends on personal interest but i cannot depend or rely on other gambling sites to give me the required strategies i needed, well some gamblers take this an an opportunity for getting clue to the games they intended playing, i have seen some gamblers that uses the open gambling tips as for their own gambling pattern and strategies and they go with that, some take their time to make amendment and play but all that is required most is for a gambler to always play the game they have idea about the strategies to use in playing them because they have their money involved and will be responsible for any outcome aftermath.

[Desmong]

Though it depends on personal interest but i cannot depend or rely on other gambling sites to give me the required strategies i needed, well some gamblers take this an an opportunity for getting clue to the games they intended playing, i have seen some gamblers that uses the open gambling tips as for their own gambling pattern and strategies and they go with that, some take their time to make amendment and play but all that is required most is for a gambler to always play the game they have idea about the strategies to use in playing them because they have their money involved and will be responsible for any outcome aftermath.

We should always go for whatsoever works for us. Gambling is not meant to be as hard that we think. If we think that we can create our strategy from the way see the game predictions them that is fine and we should also get prepared and always try to manipulate things in a way that it will work for us and suit our bets.

[Cantsay]

We should always go for whatsoever works for us. Gambling is not meant to be as hard that we think. If we think that we can create our strategy from the way see the game predictions them that is fine and we should also get prepared and always try to manipulate things in a way that it will work for us and suit our bets.

Agreed, most times people tend to neglect the fact that gambling should be done for fun though not everyone go there for this reason, but at least we should try to catch some fun while gambling but instead most gamblers get worked up with different strategies on how to win a bet that they don't even realize that there are stressing the f**k out of themself.

And as for the Op I don't think betting against the public is a wise choice at least gamblers should try as much as possible to get a strategy that normally works for him/her and not just try to depend on other's opinions.

[AicecreaME]

I guess it is working, but of course, still do this with precaution if you aren't very much familiar with it.

While the concept of betting against the public is really simple, it could still be a little tricky because you'll never know if you are on the winning or losing end because there are still sudden turn of events even at the end of the game. Although I must say this is pretty much common in sports betting because people have the perception of joining or following someone or something that is stating that this team is great and thus, will win.

Most people are gullible, let's admit it. Some are brainwashed with the ideas and information that the mainstream media feed their minds without knowing that these media outlets just want to make some noise and perhaps hype the team or player. Sometimes, the media just really left some reservations in publishing something so that they'll have more engagements and their name would be known.

Meanwhile, some people are just not that into it but decided to go through it nonetheless. Which means they would bet just based on their gut feeling and little knowledge if ever they have any, which results to failed attempt bets because it wasn't backed up by factual information that are reliable and updated.

[irhact]

Gamblers constantly try to follow new ‍stretegy for batting to win. Not all the strategies will work. Many strategies work once or twice, but later it does not work. However, no matter how good the strategy, it will not work too long. The strategy that the OP has talked about can be effective. But not for all the time.

Does it really matter if it doesn't work for long, you have made your profit and you move on to newer strategy and there's nothing wrong in that. As a gambler you should be all in for the money therefore if you come across any opportunity that'll give you money then you should take it without hesitation. Majority never wins when it comes to betting because if they were to be winning then casinos won't be such a lucrative business.

The fact that there are many casinos should tell you that majority of their customers are losing their money therefore, if you betting against them can be done in such a way that you won't lose much yourself if the bet was to go against you then do it. You'll likely win more been different from what others are doing.

[o48o]

I often play against the public. But that's not my strategy or that i would do it on purpose. I do it when i disagree with public and obviously there are benefits of high multipliers that are affecting to my decision to take the risk. Netting against public constantly doesn't seem like a counterproductive idea as you are also betting against higher probability. Which is exactly what makes betting skill based gambling and worth playing more then slots etc.

[rahmad2nd]

It is not a method I would prefer. In my opinion, all gambling (including sports events) is largely an event of chance, but nevertheless, I aim to use even the smallest detail of information in all my bets. For example, if I'm going to predict the outcome of a match, I look at the squads of the teams in that match and their performance in the last matches and then make a decision. Other methods are not my preferred methods.

I don't agree with the points you said. but clearly, there is nothing wrong with your opinion. as you said, "is largely an event of chance" I think in sports, there really is no such thing as coincidence. I mean, not entirely true. if we refer to big teams, like Real Madrid for example. they became big, established, and strong not by accident. and that's why, Madrid always dominates La Liga.

No exception to the method that is your choice, as when you make a bet. it all depends on how you analyze it carefully, even to bet against the public. success or failure, all depends on the outcome of the game. whatever our way, be it the method of betting against the public, or according to your own version. the goal is the same, namely to win from the bet.

[Silberman]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

For those who don't know about this strategy, you can read here to educate yourself.
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/betting-against-public/

Also, this website is providing details about public bets, I'm not sure how accurate it is, but we can use this as a reference since I haven't found another one. You can also comment if you some reliable sites.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/public-betting

This is a strategy that can definitely work but it is not simple to use, after all it is not enough to go against what the public believes will happen as there is a house edge on every bet that you make anyway, you need to find matches in which the overwhelming majority of the people have taken one side over the other and bet on the other side to receive better odds, however most of the time this means betting on long shots so you will lose very often.

[BitDane]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

I have not experienced betting against public but I read whether it is profitable or not is somehow debatable.  Some believe that public is often less informed and think that they are more likely to make mistakes but I think it depends on the kind of information we have.  Just like the given example on the link given by @OP, betting on the underdog,even though gives a better odds,  does not often result in a win.  Thus betting against the public in this case work against us. 

For those who don't know about this strategy, you can read here to educate yourself.
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/betting-against-public/

for those who do not want to click out of the forum

Betting against the public, or "fading the public," is a betting strategy that is based on the idea that the general public tends to make mistakes when placing bets. The reasoning behind this strategy is that the public is often less informed and more likely to be swayed by emotions and biases, which can lead them to make bad bets. By betting against the public, a bettor is essentially taking the opposite side of the most popular bet, and in theory, this could give them an edge if the public is indeed making mistakes.

However, it's important to note that there is no guarantee that this strategy will be profitable. The odds are set by bookmakers to balance the amount of money being bet on each side and calculate the risk, taking into account the public betting behavior. So, fading the public does not necessarily mean that you will be betting on the underdog or getting better odds, it's just that you're betting on the side that is receiving less support from the general public.

Additionally, it's important to keep in mind that the sports betting market is complex, and there are many factors that can affect the outcome of a game, including injuries, weather, and other unforeseen events. Therefore, it's important to use multiple strategies, and not just rely on betting against the public.

In summary, fading the public is a betting strategy that can be used by bettors who believe that the general public is making mistakes when placing bets. However, it's important to keep in mind that there is no guarantee of success and using multiple strategies is recommended.

to reiterate the advantage and disadvantage of betting against the public

Pros:

• Contrarian approach -  it goes under the belief of public often goes wrong thus betting against them, we may be able to get profit from their mistakes
• Better odds - by betting against the public we maybe able to find better odds
• Less Pressure - we are not swayed by the opinions of others and make our own decisions
• Market Inefficiency - bookmakers often adjust the odds on the public pattern and is not always efficient since their prediction isn't always correct, we can take advantage of this inefficency
• Consistency - eliminates the need for constant research and just follow the betting pattern since the sports betting market is ever changing staying on the top of the trend maybe hard.

Cons

• Risk of losing - we may not be always at the winning side
• Lack of information - public may have access to better information which we may fail to acknowledge
• Unpredictability - with the different factor affecting the sports betting market, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the game with certainty
• Overvaluation - By betting against the public, you may be overvaluing the odds and underestimating the potential of the more popular team/outcome.
• Limited by own knowledge - if we don't have a good understanding of the sports we may be losing more
• Odds adjustment - bookmakers may adjust the odds to balance betting on both sides so betting against the public may not yield a better odds.

Also, this website is providing details about public bets, I'm not sure how accurate it is, but we can use this as a reference since I haven't found another one. You can also comment if you some reliable sites.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/public-betting

You can also check http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

[beerlover]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

It sure works, but this is not a strategy that works or shows up all the time or everyday, the only time I can tell you that betting against the public worked for me was in recent QATAR 2022 world cup that just ended, and it was the match between Morocco and Croatia, from the odds, I could see that the public were pouring their bets on Croatia to win the match, after seeing how attractive Morocco's odd is and putting into consideration how they've played well against Portugal, i decided that they could end up beating Croatia, so I betted against the public in that match, and amazingly, i was right, Morocco beat Croatia and that was how i won some really good amount of money.

And like i said, the above is the only time betting against the public has really worked for me, every other time i tried, it has always ended in a loss.

It's very rare that betting against the public would work, because public is betting on the most likely outcome anyway, and statistically it's not a wonder that the most likely option to happen, is the most likely thing that happens in the end as well. Of course you could go against the tide sometimes and just have fun with it, but that doesn't mean that it's going to be any different in the long term neither, it will be something expected.

This is why I believe that we should be focusing a bit more towards betting on the common results, that way we would not be making more money, but we would be winning more frequently and that's easier on the eyes and on our psychology as well.

[serjent05]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

It sure works, but this is not a strategy that works or shows up all the time or everyday, the only time I can tell you that betting against the public worked for me was in recent QATAR 2022 world cup that just ended, and it was the match between Morocco and Croatia, from the odds, I could see that the public were pouring their bets on Croatia to win the match, after seeing how attractive Morocco's odd is and putting into consideration how they've played well against Portugal, i decided that they could end up beating Croatia, so I betted against the public in that match, and amazingly, i was right, Morocco beat Croatia and that was how i won some really good amount of money.

And like i said, the above is the only time betting against the public has really worked for me, every other time i tried, it has always ended in a loss.

It's very rare that betting against the public would work, because public is betting on the most likely outcome anyway, and statistically it's not a wonder that the most likely option to happen, is the most likely thing that happens in the end as well. Of course you could go against the tide sometimes and just have fun with it, but that doesn't mean that it's going to be any different in the long term neither, it will be something expected.

True, today everyone has access to vast information so betting against the public effectiveness has somehow deteriorated.  The public is often informed now so the possibility of mistakes drops.  Though betting against the public still works when a person knows how to position his bet very well.  Else, betting against the public will more likely give us losses than winnings.

This is why I believe that we should be focusing a bit more towards betting on the common results, that way we would not be making more money, but we would be winning more frequently and that's easier on the eyes and on our psychology as well.

True, but if the opportunity opens its way that we can effectively take advantage of betting against the public then why not take the position of betting against the public, it will surely gives us way more profit because the odds will be so favorable to the minority.

[xSkylarx]

I just heard of this kind of strategy as I am not really fan on it , I am into opposite on this like having an overall gist on the fans like their speculations per team if they can win or not and also my own understanding and speculation. I don't really go deep or serious in sports betting it is just for fun and brought you excitement but when I try to recall this there are some couple of games that I've lost which if I use this strategy I should probably won. This is still 50% chance of winning same with my own speculations so I would still prefer my own insights per game.

[EarnOnVictor]

It is not a method I would prefer. In my opinion, all gambling (including sports events) is largely an event of chance, but nevertheless, I aim to use even the smallest detail of information in all my bets. For example, if I'm going to predict the outcome of a match, I look at the squads of the teams in that match and their performance in the last matches and then make a decision. Other methods are not my preferred methods.

I second you on this, betting against the public is not a strategy, it's gambling with a different belief which I know would put the gambler in trouble most times. This approach would make the gambler lose much in football, though other gambling avenues might still be the same as they would be for any gambler because luck is mostly required.

In gambling, no certain method works, but in football, you can easily predict the team that would win, this might not work all the time but it would work most times like say over 85% for the public. So predicting against over 85% means you have less than a 15% chance of winning, and it will not be able to sustain the person though the odds against the public are much higher.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I just heard of this kind of strategy as I am not really fan on it , I am into opposite on this like having an overall gist on the fans like their speculations per team if they can win or not and also my own understanding and speculation. I don't really go deep or serious in sports betting it is just for fun and brought you excitement but when I try to recall this there are some couple of games that I've lost which if I use this strategy I should probably won. This is still 50% chance of winning same with my own speculations so I would still prefer my own insights per game.

Though, I don't totally understand what you meant, but to comment on the part I understood....
It is a simple question, you talked about your insights, let's use that as an example, let's say for instance, Arsenal and Chelsea are playing a match, and you want to bet on the match, your insight tells you they Chelsea would win, and you are Goin to bet on Chelsea, opening your casino, from the odds, you can easily tell which team the general public is rooting and betting for to win, so let's say the general public thinks Chelsea would win too, this made the odds on Chelsea really low and the odds on Arsenal really high, this means that betting on Arsenal with little amount of money might help you win a really significant amount as profit.

Would you leave or forget about your insight and bet on Arsenal instead of betting for Chelsea which is the public's choice,? have you ever tried this and has it ever worked for you?
This is what we are discussing.

[KTChampions]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

It works sometimes and doesn't work sometimes. I cant say I use it as a strategy, I just follow my intuition and if my intuition goes against the public then so be it. It doesn't matter if the whole world plays a particular bet the same way, if my intuition tells me otherwise then i'll follow and I regret it sometimes when I don't listen.

An instance was the Napoli vs Juventus game and the Lecce vs AC Milan game. I was so certain Napoli would win Juventus for unknown reasons. I even said it on the Italian league thread. That's what my gut told me and I was convinced. Same goes to the the Milan game. I just had this gut feeling that Milan was not going to win that game.
I don't do it based on the public opinion, I didn't bet against Milan because majority of the public bet on Milan its just a gut feeling.

Regularities don't work "sometimes" they either exist or they don't. If the strategy is unprofitable in the long run, then it does not work at all. Experiments with consecutive bets on outsiders (with and without Martingale) have been carried out many times and as a result, the average loss of a better is always approximately equal to the average loss of a better who consistently bets on favorites. Thus, it can be stated that this strategy does not work.

[Agbe]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

For those who don't know about this strategy, you can read here to educate yourself.
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/betting-against-public/

Also, this website is providing details about public bets, I'm not sure how accurate it is, but we can use this as a reference since I haven't found another one. You can also comment if you some reliable sites.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/public-betting

Yes but not always, you know betting is a game of luck so your betting against the public or fading the public does not mean anything, but the day your luck shine you win and the day have bad luck the same thing (lose) will still occur. Yes this the first time I am seeing and hearing this term. well it is good method to fake the majority to win a game. when everyone think that they would win the bet and instead of you to join them and play the same lane with them, you bet the opposite, and when everyone is crying, you are laughing.

[Kelvinid]

I heard this strategy working but I like to know based on your experience if this is working.

For those who don't know about this strategy, you can read here to educate yourself.
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/betting-against-public/

Also, this website is providing details about public bets, I'm not sure how accurate it is, but we can use this as a reference since I haven't found another one. You can also comment if you some reliable sites.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/public-betting

Yes but not always, you know betting is a game of luck so your betting against the public or fading the public does not mean anything, but the day your luck shine you win and the day have bad luck the same thing (lose) will still occur. Yes this the first time I am seeing and hearing this term. well it is good method to fake the majority to win a game. when everyone think that they would win the bet and instead of you to join them and play the same lane with them, you bet the opposite, and when everyone is crying, you are laughing.

It does mean anything if the game is rig or the sport itself. That betting against the public words was created because bookmakers are so smart, they will set up a line that is very attractive to the public while in reality it's overvalued, means the actual chance of hitting is low.

[Reid]

Underdog? Was that it? The public most of the time goes for the favorite player or team so it's also like betting against them. Right?
I love doing that, I like the risk associated with it and the high profits that you can win which is often higher than multiplied by two. Then, if you can combine it with a parlay, the rewards will definitely more satisfying.
It does work, for those who knows their game and lucky enough to predict the right underdog to win. Occasionally, I can find myself betting for the underdog without being emotionally inclined.