Bye Bye Bear Market :)

[ImThour]

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

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[STT]

I dont disagree but the retest is where I have more confidence.  The low prices more then the high prices is where I find accuracy is best given for prediction and the backbone to trends.    We do have weekly, 50 and I hope soon 200 day averages moving upwards.   When all that is true is best to be biased to the upside but I wont assume just yet, sincere optimism seems totally correct but I'll wait this month out and some.
   So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.

[adaseb]

It doesn’t look like it broke either. The trend line is not broken yet and the moving averages just started to cross. So it’s a little pre mature to say this. However given how small the dips have been I am starting to think this will rally into the $25K at least before it pulls back.

One indicator of a Bitcoin bull market is when you want to buy the dip but can’t. That usually means it’s a very strong bull market. And the best way to play it is get in early and keep holding without selling too early. Hence if you got a long going keep holding and don’t sell yet.

[Oshosondy]

What I know is that indicators can fail, but long term sentiment has not been failing yet, the price of bitcoin is still low, for anyone that has money he is not using for long time, he can buy bitcoin, the price may reduce but we are still going above $50000. Going above $50000 may not be this time, it can be in this year or next year.

I use weekly BB and RSI indicator, what I predicted before is that bitcoin would increase above $23000 which would be a resistant price, but getting to $25000 is possible because there can be more overbought market, the upper band has been attained now but the market can be bullish a bit more. But because of the weekly BB overbought market, bitcoin price may drag around this price, finding it difficult to go higher for now. But I am still expecting above $30000 this year though.

[NeuroticFish]

3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

I hope you're right (obviously), but I still don't feel like we are 100% safe. The price looks good, however, I'd wait for a correction (or at least plateau) and then the next pump; then I'd also be convinced we're good (I tend to be "slow" in this, but don't worry about me).
On the other hand, I was expecting the bear market end in Q4 2022 and, based on these new charts, it has basically ended in 2 of January 2023. So, based on my original math, you indeed may be right on this.

PS. Thanks for the new charts, I've been awaiting for them

[Lucius]

It is evident that something is happening, but regardless of the data, I am of the opinion that the bear market cannot be completely written off. I think it's just a recovery that is still on shaky legs, until we get back to pre-crash levels caused by that South Korean scammer. This would mean that the price should reach at least $30k, and somehow it doesn't seem to me that this can happen soon.

[buwaytress]

Cautious optimism is the name of the game for now, and feels like I am not alone judging from responses. I feel almost guilty now waking up the past week and expecting sub 20k levels, as if we are just so used now to false dawns we feel it must not yet be over until there is real pain (not to say it doesn't hurt yet, just I thought we would be on our knees first).

A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?

[TravelMug]

Cautious optimism is the name of the game for now, and feels like I am not alone judging from responses. I feel almost guilty now waking up the past week and expecting sub 20k levels, as if we are just so used now to false dawns we feel it must not yet be over until there is real pain (not to say it doesn't hurt yet, just I thought we would be on our knees first).

A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?

Oh yeah, we need to be very careful as well, although we see the price jumping to $23k, very early to judge if the bottom is in already. On the other hand, me waking up seeing the price moving over $20k makes me nervous, Lol, because I'm thinking that the waking up next day, the price might be different.

But it seems that the bulls has taken control of the market, and again, waking early in my timezone to witnessed again $23k++ still baffles me as to what is the real reason for this increase at the start of the year.

[hatshepsut93]

Maybe it's the end of the bear market in some sense, but it's not the start of the bull market. There's still more than 1 year till next halvening. The growth, if it starts now, will still be slow, I don't expect the price reaching the previous top in this year. Even 40k sounds in this year sounds pretty ambitious, considering that the price can drop anytime for no good reason or if there's some unforeseen negative event.

[Woodie]

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

Bottom maybe in but for every break of structure you need to anticipate a pullback and from what I can see, price could comeback to anywhere around the $19k region to mitigate open orders and then nothing will be left at the bottom and price will moon upwards.

It doesn’t look like it broke either. The trend line is not broken yet and the moving averages just started to cross. So it’s a little pre mature to say this. However given how small the dips have been I am starting to think this will rally into the $25K at least before it pulls back.

My thoughts exactly, price is yet to break the trend line, but looking at the size of those bullish candles.. Markets keep showing that they do have upward momentum to break the trend line,but after this happens a pullback is certainly on the cards!

[Franctoshi]

Having Bitcoin continuesly moving up with such momentum and Breaking two structures especially the FTX collapse, is something that caught my attention and makes me start ​to believing that the Bottom is in already at $15k,

not only that, Another two things which is corresponding with this move is the fact that previous Bear/Bull market cycles records shows that Bear market ended in the 12th month , while the Bull market started on the 13th month after ATH, which means that in previous cycles Bitcoin only spent 1 year in the Bear market and 3 years in Bull market.

Now we are currently in the 13 month of Bitcoin down trend, seems history is trying to repeat itself.

[bitgolden]

I dont disagree but the retest is where I have more confidence.  The low prices more then the high prices is where I find accuracy is best given for prediction and the backbone to trends.    We do have weekly, 50 and I hope soon 200 day averages moving upwards.   When all that is true is best to be biased to the upside but I wont assume just yet, sincere optimism seems totally correct but I'll wait this month out and some.
   So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.

It is true that we could have a "confirmation" of sorts to make sure it is start of a bull run, or at least end of bear market. But that doesn't mean that we can't be finding anything that would be closer to reality, and I believe that we should be finding something that would be a bit risky, and at the very least something that would be too late if we wait for that confirmation.

I think it's a lot better if we end up with having some sort of better results in the long run, then it would be better if we get involved now, if we wait for that confirmation and it goes up, we would be too late and making profit is still possible but it will be less profit, I already bought at lower prices so I am fine, but I suggest not being even later than now.

[Oceat]

I can't say that bear market is done since it's just getting started to rise after a long bearish months though the bull trap is still in my mind after all. I'd like to be cautious as possible if I don't see a reliable strong support that the bottom is done already since I kinda feel like it's still waiting to dump after pumping. Maybe let's just wait a little longer to see if it's really moving up and it's finally a good bye to the bear market.

[JoyMarsha]

$22k is that the bottom price we should have our bitcoin fall to? It's all good if am to have that kind of assumption with you but will that possible to come by cos a few months back we were having a bitcoin price at $22k above before the luna and the FXT exchange crashed.

In a year the bitcoin halving would kick off. Before then and now, we are going to encounter so numerous price movements (up and down) of bitcoin. Let's keep our tempo cool for now and trust the movement of bitcoin(whether it declines or increases)

[Fundamentals Of]

I'm smiling at how things have suddenly changed. Just several days or a few weeks ago, I have observed that many are bearish. I have seen a number of polls and discussions showing that the sentiment remains generally bearish, probably because the halving is still happening in 2024. Nobody would probably have expected that the price would leap from $16,000 when the year started to $23,000 just around 3 weeks later. Bitcoin is indeed unpredictable and while we could say that the bearish days is probably over now, we could again be wrong.

[Sebas.tian]

I don't think, bearish market is off from the market yet, because the market price is still moving between $22,342 and $23,211 which is a sign that investors will soon experience massive pumping before the end of next two months in the market. I think, investors can still visit the market to buy as much they want and hold for the price to change for their favour before they can release them to smile in the market, because the bearish market is still on for long and short term investors to make use of the opportunity so that they will have something reasonable to achieve at the end of their investments.

[franky1]

not time to call off the bear. nor time to call in the bull..

what is actually happening since atleast second half of last year is saying "hello whales"

take just this last 5 days.
there are 2 pods of whales

one pod is futures trading with bets the price will be above $22k. and so they have spot market bots trading to keep prices above $22k

another pod is futures trading with bets the price will be below $23k. and so they have spot market bots trading to keep prices below $23k

both pods like to bait the sharks(smaller traders) by letting the price slip above limits for a short period(minutes-hour) to tickle and tease and bait the sharks to make opposing bets that the price will go above $23k or below $22k

this is so that the whales have a pool of opposing bets to win against (take their money)

we are not going to see much "free market" natural trading this year (my opinion, do you own research) where the price will move freely and more volatility within the natural wide window of $15k-$90k(read my post history for my numbers explainers, there enough of them)

instead we are going to see alot of 1 week-8 week straight horizontal lines (zoom out to 3-6 months and is clearer)
when then step up or step down once the futures contracts expire and the whales turn off their spot bots for a few hours or day to allow a little bit of freemaket movement before readjusting and setting new support/resistance narrow window frames again

[GreatArkansas]

I am still positive that we will not yet start yet the bull market, maybe more sideways but no more dumps just like what we experienced last year. Last year is the best example of a bear market which we saw drastically drop from an all-time high and most of the altcoins are also dumping. Since Bitcoin block halving is next year, maybe the first quarter of this year is still not sure for me, I am still bearish.

[kro55]

I am not sure if this is a bull trap although my doubts are great, but I am convinced that we are not out of the bear market yet, it is still very early to confirm the bears was left behind. It is normal for bitcoin to recover from a long string of declines, just as there will be a few sunny days in winter.
In order to see what the next trend of bitcoin is going to be, we need to take more time to observe and confirm whether the winter has indeed ended or if this is just a price trap.

[btc78]

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

How I wish this is completely true mate though  have been following you and sees most of your confidence about Bitcoin movement , if bear really ends here meaning I will be successful in all of my buying right before the pump happens? yes I bout at 17k and at 19k , knowing the price now is at 22-23k meaning i will continue to close my eyes and wait , even there is a small dump this what needs to stay strong and never panic.