Retracement will finally happen

[DevilSlayer]

This is the weekly timeframe of the BTC/USDT

Price don't go straight line, as a trader we should expect a bounce or a retracement after a great momentum. As you can see, the last 3 weeks of BTC/USDT was really good and finally, the price already hit the major resistance, It only means that the supply there are so high and the price already exhausted where we can expect that the price may go down up to its major support in around $19,000 to $20,000. The Major resistance is so strong at around $24,000 to $25,000. The BTC should consolidate more for the price have strong momentum to breakout.

Is it bad or is it good? Even though that the price will finally retrace, it only means a good movement for BTC because it will only confirm that we are already in bullish. The chart of bitcoin is now creating higher highs and finally it will create a higher low. We should keep in mind that having a good risk management can help us to entry better and avoid cutting huge losses. Expect a red days in these coming days

[1714656077]

1714656077

[1714656077]

1714656077

[1714656077]

1714656077

[hugeblack]

The correction will be good if we reach the next resistance level, and thus we will witness a healthy growth rather than a speculative pattern.
The coming days will be either confirmation because what happened is speculation, or the price will reach new support levels, thus officially confirming the bottom.

Is it bad or is it good?

Does it looks good or bad? It depends on your view of the price. If you are a trader, then speculation and the change in the price means profits. If you are an investor, then the price increase is good for you.

[Edwardard]

Expect a red days in these coming days

Lets see what is the impact of today's 1.48b$ options expiry followed by the rate hike decision in the upcoming days (1st feb).
Although I agree with your point that we should see some sort of a correction to fall between 20k-21k range once more before flying harder, the fundamentals are going to decide the technicals. We will know soon. For me 25.2k area is where if the price goes, there is no stopping back upto 32k.

[Oshosondy]

I checked the weekly candles when the bull run started and I predicted that $23000 may be the resistance that retracement may occur and it is happening like that, I used BB and RSI for the analysis, but there is possibility of the price to increase a little above the overbought market which is indicated by the upper band, because it is weekly candles, the price range is huge a little and it is around $25000 which makes me think that even if bitcoin increase above $23000, it may not go beyond $25000. Today I check the daily candle stick, it is showing a pattern that bitcoin may also rise to $25000 before the retracement, but analyses can be wrong.

[pooya87]

There is simply no reason for the price to see another "crash" again specially below the previous resistance which is now a strong buy support. So unless something significant happens to the world economy again, it is highly unlikely to see any kind of major drops.

Whether things are going to be good or bad depends on how healthy the trends from now on are going to be like. A healthy rise where the investors start coming back slowly and buy bitcoin before it shoots up is a good thing but panic buys where price shoots up and creates high volatility is never good.

[Coin_trader]

It’s so early to conclude on this outcome because the current week is not yet over and we don’t if this week candle is a doji or not to confirm retracement. Using Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe chart shows the current price is sitting on the upper limit of the Bands meaning it’s either will break out above to break the current downward channel or a retracement will happened like what stated on your TA. But still it’s too early and needs a confirmation this weekend.

Bitcoin usually make a strong move during weekends since this rally started. I don’t believe too on straight line when it comes to chart but the current rally is not the typical pump and hype buy can always occur anytime whenever traders feels that the current setback is a perfect opportunity to enter in Bitcoin.

[palle11]

It is normal for price to retrace after some bull move and if this happens it won't be a surprise. The resistance levels around 21,000 couldn't stop price to jump to 23,000 and now we have seen a little stop at 23,000.

Hence, I think the next coming week is going to determine if the price level of 23k will be a strong resistance to push price down for a bull correction before the next move but for now, I'm going to stay and watch until the new week to avoid being trapped on the weekend because it is always funny during the weekend.

[justdimin]

It only means that the supply there are so high and the price already exhausted where we can expect that the price may go down up to its major support in around $19,000 to $20,000. The Major resistance is so strong at around $24,000 to $25,000. The BTC should consolidate more for the price have strong momentum to breakout.

But, we have not tested around $23,700 levels for only once which means in my opinion, we can expect bitcoin market to keep trying to penetrate $24k to $25k levels before making a retracement. Yeah, it might be too early to expect for a retracement. Hopefully we are still in the middle of a short term bullish wave which may extend up to $27k levels in coming days.

Is it bad or is it good? Even though that the price will finally retrace, it only means a good movement for BTC because it will only confirm that we are already in bullish.

Regardless of whether it is good or bad, retracement is just part of every wave hence we need to accept and must look for perfect reversal point to make better DCA. We may not have bitcoin to break $20k levels; so we may keep buying around $21k-$20k levels.

[logfiles]

The resistance region seems to start from 23K though, the price has been hovering around that region for a long time. Rejections or retracements usually happen almost immediately after a pump. The current situation is a little confusing thou, but we hope for the best.

About whether it's good or bad? I think this just the market being normal and not moving in one straight line as some people expect.

[jossiel]

That's to be expected.

It won't really just be a straight line that will continue up to $24k-$25k but it has to be retraced and had a dip somehow before it reaches there. But for the meantime, while it's staying on $21k then everyone should get hold of it or still wait for some confirmation until it finally moves to its resistance.

but the other question
 of whether it is good or bad is a bit tricky.

It will always be tricky but then, if you're for the long term that will be good.

[jeraldskie11]

Even if we can't predict the next move, there's always a chance that price will go back for retracement. Price is always seeks for liquidity and if the liquidity was taken it is uses to fuel the price to move to the opposite direction. As we can see in the chart, there's a huge gap and that gap is possible target of price before it make another HH.

[palle11]

About whether it's good or bad? I think this just the market being normal and not moving in one straight line as some people expect.

Usually it is the real thing to happen in market when the price go up or down. Liquidity and volatility is what traders use to trace or chart out the market direction and with this, it is understandable that the movement or waves are not steadily in one direction except it is going on trend but it will be for a particular moment.

[cabron]

The retracement may not actually be as terrible as going to plunge below $16k, but the sentiments will help the price to a level probably just above $20K still and goes back to bullish again til it reaches another major resistance. Call it retracement or correction but the market is going to be better once it does that. But even when I say this, all are still speculations.

[DevilSlayer]

My analysis is still accurate, I expected that the price will resist because there is a major resistance around $24,000 to $25,0000. The price hit the supply zone that causes downward movement, anyway it is healthy and it is just a normal retrace. I expect that this may go lower where the price may hit the $20,000 again. Let's see what will happen to the price in the next few weeks.

Note that this chart is a weekly timeframe. So I'm giving analysis long term and not short term. Be careful because price may dump in these following days. 

[dimonstration]

My analysis is still accurate, I expected that the price will resist because there is a major resistance around $24,000 to $25,0000. The price hit the supply zone that causes downward movement, anyway it is healthy and it is just a normal retrace. I expect that this may go lower where the price may hit the $20,000 again. Let's see what will happen to the price in the next few weeks.

Note that this chart is a weekly timeframe. So I'm giving analysis long term and not short term. Be careful because price may dump in these following days. 

Nice analysis, I’m waiting for this retracement around 25K area before I short since it’s the known strong resistance but 24K grows to become much stronger resistance which means those who put sell order on 25K level reposition a little bit lower that result for this strong resistance.

I know that this retracement is healthy but I’m worried about the short position number. The current number of short position on Bitfinex is still very low while the price is already correcting which means this correction is due to retail traders taking profit already. There’s might be a chance that the support will break once this bear get the opportunity to control the trend by injecting huge volume of short position once again. Let’s how the price will play on the coming weeks. Nice thread you got here.

[Edwardard]

I know that this retracement is healthy but I’m worried about the short position number. The current number of short position on Bitfinex is still very low while the price is already correcting which means this correction is due to retail traders taking profit already. There’s might be a chance that the support will break once this bear get the opportunity to control the trend by injecting huge volume of short position once again.

You're right there, the funding fee is also neutral to bearish on most exchanges suggesting a drop in the btc price (since long numbers are higher than shorts).
I am shorting small qty at the current levels at 23k in anticipation of a retest of 20k level. The spx and american markets are also supporting a dump. Although the federal interest rate decision was good , but the market didnt take it seriously in any direction yet.

[thecodebear]

So far Bitcoin has held the $22k level very well. I had expected it to retrace at least a couple thousand dollars a number of days ago but it has held on to the $6k-$7k gains it started on a month ago.

Will be interesting to see what happens. The market so far doesn't seem to want to see a retracement, but I also wouldn't expect it to break out of the <$25k bottom any time soon. Which leaves it doing what it has been doing for a bit now - just hovering in the $22k/23k/24k range. But I would think at some point we'll see at least a short drop to like $20k in the next few weeks and investors will get at least one last chance to load up a bit lower in this bottom bear market range.

[GreatArkansas]

This is already given, the level of $20,000 is now the strong level. As on the peak of the bull run 2017-2018, the peak was around nearly $20,000.
So for now, I can consider it as a significant level because look when after we break that level this year, it's always now above $20,000 and that level is now acting as a support.

[el kaka22]

I agree that it will go up, and it's already in green a bit and I think it will stay green for a while and we will go up. However, that doesn't mean that we should be too excited about it, it's not guaranteed yet, and even if it does go up, that doesn't mean it will stay up neither and we could have some bad results.

This is why it's so important to keep investing, so that you could wait out all these ups and downs and navigate yourself through these volatile periods. If you could do that, and you could hold tight and wait for better prices in the end, it may take months or even maybe over a year before we break over ATH again, but when it happens, it will be all worth the wait.

[DevilSlayer]

March 06, 2023 MINI UPDATE.

The Major resistance is so strong, the sellers overcome the buyers that is the reason why we saw a red market in these past days.

Does this mean that it is already bearish? The answer is No! I expected that the price will resist in this area many times because it is a major resistance where the possibility of resisting in that area is high. Why the movement of the bitcoin in weekly timeframe is considered as good? The answer is because of the consolidation. The current price of the bitcoin is moving inside the box where it building a momentum upwards. It can be a good sign that there's something is cooking. We can only be invalidated if the Major support will not hold. Expect a bull run if the price of the bitcoin breakouts in the Major Resistance especially in $25,000.