My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving.

[KingsDen]

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

[1714757770]

1714757770

[1714757770]

1714757770

[NeuroticFish]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

Let's see: who you think they're the biggest Bitcoin sellers, by a great margin? Day traders? They buy back everything they sell. Small holders? ... Or the miners? I'd say it's the miners. The miners must sell in order to pay for electricity and so on.
So, after the halving they'll have to sell half of the amount of bitcoins and still get money to pay for electricity. The only way to do it and stay in the business is to no longer sell this cheap.

This being said, a bull run will still exist. The only question remaining is how big will that be.

[Solosanz]

First we need to go back during Covid 19 pandemic and many people panic to sold their Bitcoin at $5K. At that time the whole economic are really worst, S&P 500 and gold are decline, even more oil price was minus. Is there anyone think Bitcoin will create new ATH at 2021? Nope, the economy isn't really that good because we're trying to move from pandemic to new normal. But Bitcoin is really make everyone shocked since the price suddenly increase and hit $60K!

You need to know Bitcoin price was hit $60K at 2021 before El Salvador accept Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin hit $60K at March 2021 while El Salvador accept Bitcoin as legal tender at September 2021.

Bitcoin doesn't need to be accepted as legal tender to make the bullrun happen.

[mk4]

It's highly likely that after a certain halving date, the price effect would likely be far less spiky compared to past halvings. Instead, we'd probably have a slow and steady uptrend, which is far more preferable in my opinion — if we'd look at bitcoin in the lens of a currency/SoV rather than a hype asset.

[Dave1]

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Assuming that there are no bull run, I doubt thought that there will be panic and serious sell off. If they are here to used bitcoin as payment scheme then good as they are not going to be affected.

But for those who chooses bitcoin as a investment, there could be issues, but it won't go down to be catastrophic though. They could remain in the market and then wait for it to revived. Sooner or later with or without block halving, the price could still go and increase. You have to remember the basic economic tenant of supply and demand, and with that there could be more demand from the mainstream and so the price will still go up no matter what.

[franky1]

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

most bull runs happen AFTER the halfing, like the following year once miners reassess their costs of the year (big asic farms dont play by daily whims they have investment in hardware+electric contracts of mostly 1year+)

your fear is that say when there is a halving. a new gen of asics is released where their efficiency and electric costs are 2x better thus not need to sell coin 2x higher due to the cost per coin becoming neutral..

well do not fear
asics every couple year only get a few % efficient and electric costs go up not down

due to nm chip scaling the efficiency leaps used to be massive but now due to physics the leaps are getting less
lets take the s7 vs s9       3.6 thash/kw - 10.4 thash/kw = +1.88x
lets take the s9 vs s11     10.4 thash/kw - 15.75 thash/kw =  +.5x
lets take the s11 vs s15    15.75 thash/kw - 17.5 thash/kw =  +.16x
lets take the s15 vs s17    17.5 thash/kw - 22.4 thash/kw  =+.28x
lets take the s17 vs s19    22.4 thash/kw - 29.25 thash/kw  =+.3x
lets take the s19 vs s19xp    29.25 thash/kw - 46.6 thash/kw  =+.59x

as you can see its not like its 2x each evolution anymore.
plus as said electric prices are going up

Edit
and as ETF also highlights below the network hashrate would also need to drop considerably to bring the efficiency up to a 2x figure.. considerable network rate loss to give remaining miners more coin per cost

[ABCbits]

Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

No. The only concern is half of miner permanently stop mining which reduce difficulty/Bitcoin network security by half. Although looking at current mining condition, IMO half current hashrate is still more than enough to secure Bitcoin network.

[TribalBob]

The US doesn't need to make btc a legal tender I think, with the good news about btc it can make the value of btc rise slowly and will get stronger, indeed we don't know at what price btc will stop in the halving period later
and I'm not sure if the bull run will be missed this season

[tbct_mt2]

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.

If they buy Bitcoin because they believe Bitcoin will have good growth with big bull run each halving, they are gambling and can be wrong.

For me, I invest in Bitcoin because I believe in its technology and innovation which brings a lot of changes for human civilization which won't be stopped. Halving is only part of contributors for Bitcoin growth but not all of reasons. There are other contributors like adoption, bigger and stronger network with time especially adoption.

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run?

Do you think Internet actually change the world at a same rate every year? It did not. Some years some big milestones ocurred but some years, nothing special happened.
The importance is after 10 years, 20 years, Internet changed the world completely.

Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

Speculators will be panic because they borrow money, use leverages and fail to get profit or get forced liquidation so that they must feel panic.

Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

It won't be legal tender and in fact, do we need Bitcoin legal tender to use it?

I think we don't need it. Making it legally as a payment method is enough. Some people can accept it, somebody else can not accept it. The world always is separated like this.

Even it becomes legal tender, what will you do if you go to a restaurant or coffee store and they reject to receive your bitcoin?

Will you make a phone call to police to report that store or bring them to a court? I guess we don't have time to waste like this.

[Lucius]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

For those who only care about profit, it would be a really big problem and they would certainly panic, but for some others, the price is not everything that Bitcoin revolves around. Halving still has the potential to have a positive effect on the market because the reward per block after the next halving will be 3,125 BTC, but I think that the halving effect will be less and less after that because miners will mine less and less, and thus the impact of freshly mined coins on the market will be smaller and smaller.

This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

I am of the opinion that the US government would sooner ban the sale and use of firearms than declare Bitcoin legal tender. You obviously don't follow American politics too much, and in that case you would know that the US dollar has never had and will never have an alternative. But let's say hypothetically if this happens, it would probably cause a sudden jump in the price, but the euphoria would quickly subside because, like anywhere in the world, most people use Bitcoin as an investment, not as a currency.

[DooMAD]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market.

All this suggests to me is that speculators overthink this shit way too much.  No wonder there's so much panic-selling.  The above post could just as easily be phrased: "What if the mindless hype isn't generating enough hype anymore?" and would convey much the same sentiment. I mean, come on, this is just silly.

[Crypt0Gore]

I will be more concerned about how big the next bull run will be, not what will happen after the next Bitcoin halving, moreover in the past halving event Bitcoin did not surge instantly, it still takes weeks to a few months before we start seeing big bullish momentum, I believe that's what will happen again, a BTC block right now consists of 6.25BTC and after the halving, it will go down to 3.1BTC.

When scarcity meets demand the sky is the limit.

[jossiel]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

That's okay.

As long as it maintains the current stand of bitcoin in the market right now, I'd be more than happy to accept if it won't be in a bull run. But anyway, several times that it has been like that and it's a pattern that we're all hoping for.

So, assuming that no bullruns happen, I don't think that it will cause any panic.

This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Being declared as a legal tender of US will really make a huge impact but, I think that we don't need that to happen. What we have is already enough and effect of the halving is perfect to see the bump in the long run. A slow growth would suffice everything for bitcoin's growth.

[royalfestus]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market.

All this suggests to me is that speculators overthink this shit way too much.  No wonder there's so much panic-selling.  The above post could just as easily be phrased: "What if the mindless hype isn't generating enough hype anymore?" and would convey much the same sentiment. I mean, come on, this is just silly.

It would be the first time the halving will not turn the bullish button, and as you explained, that would be overthinking. In theory, the supply of the coin during the halving will be halved. However, the bear market boosts bitcoin from weak hands to stronger hands, which increases demand while decreasing supply, which reflects in the price increases.

[John Abraham]

No. The only concern is half of miner permanently stop Mining which reduce difficulty/Bitcoin network security by half. Although looking at current mining condition, IMO half current hashrate is still more than enough to secure the Bitcoin network.

We know the Mining will be ended at some point. I know it's still a long way to go. But, What will happen to Bitcoin network security when miners get a few sats for a successive block and stop Mining? I know miners won't stop until it becomes extremely non-profitable. Some will even mine if costs and profitability are the same. But, That will reduce the hash rate. How much hash rate is enough hash rate to secure the network? I am just curious about it.

[CoinEraser]

-snip- My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry? -snip-

With the next halving still over a year away, I'm not too concerned about it just yet. But I do expect that we will see another bull run sometime after the halving. Definitely this time, anyway. But there could be some point where there will be no bull run after the halving, but I don't think that will be 2024 yet. Rather, I expect it much later and then the Bitcoin price will probably not fluctuate as much as it does now. So I don't expect any panic in the market and it will probably just be accepted. But that's just my personal assessment of it. Whether that will really happen remains to be seen.  

[AverageGlabella]

You are worrying about something that has not happened and has not happened in history. Why do you think that we will not have a bull run? Why do you think people will panic? If the price steadily increases instead of going on a big bull run it is probably better for adoption and the stability of btc.

[NotATether]

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

Nah, the supply and demand dynamics resulting from miners having less money will trickle down to the rest of the industry slowly.

Through scarcity, hype is manufactured, as other people will realize that something that is becoming more and more scarce is about to become more expensive. Bitcoin kind of takes it to the extreme by (what feels like) taking away half of the supply overnight.

[AverageGlabella]

Through scarcity, hype is manufactured, as other people will realize that something that is becoming more and more scarce is about to become more expensive. Bitcoin kind of takes it to the extreme by (what feels like) taking away half of the supply overnight.

That is true if btc continues to perform well and is being used for something. atm people are not using their btc because they value it to much. atm that is working because btc has become more of a collectible or a store of value instead of a currency that it was originally created for. As long as that does not change I agree with you that the price should continue to increase and halving will continue to see hype around them because they are reducing the amount of btc that is being brought into circulation.

[DooMAD]

We know the Mining will be ended at some point. I know it's still a long way to go. But, What will happen to Bitcoin network security when miners get a few sats for a successive block and stop Mining?

Think your Chat GPT app is broken.  That's not accurate.  The reward subsidy will end at some point (after every single last one of us is dead, unless life-expectancy dramatically increases in the future).  But mining will still continue, fuelled by transaction fees alone.