What will happen to BTC price if the US defaults?

[Abiky]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

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[adaseb]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

[EarnOnVictor]

You are missing a lot of facts here, which might be a misrepresentation of the situation and what the US and the USD stand for. For the record, the US has never defaulted since over 2 millennia ago, they can't now when it's in the hands of capable hands and better technology and economic exposure.

Your post might have been borne out of the pegging on the debt permissible by the Federal Treasury, which is a debatable issue and could be readjusted if need be.

Mind you, if the US defaults today, which currency would fit in perfectly as stable as it is? Do you think the world would even think of Bitcoin as an alternative? If you think so, then you are joking. Another fiat will be a viable choice, but none can still fit the show of the USD, for now, so the USD will still be preferred.

Even with the US default, it will have a temporary effect on the USD because they will measure it up with a fix as soon as possible, and the effect on BTC (positive or negative) will be minimal.

[pooya87]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

[Husires]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon.

This will not happen, do you know why? Because this is how the financial system works, being a global reserve currency means that your debts will be paid by all countries, not the United States, so they will print more and the debt ceiling will increase.

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

If this happens, Bitcoin is the last thing to worry about because this means that the Third World War has come and the victor will change the current features of the world.

US defaults does not necessarily mean an increase in the price of Bitcoin, but rather the failure of the current central systems.

[gunhell16]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

Well, I kind of agree with what you said dude, the U.S. dollar doesn't have any backup, unlike other countries whose fiat currency is backed-up gold, unlike the U.S$ America which doesn't have anything except big debt.

So it's impossible to default, I don't believe that. Yes, there is a lot of speculation, but that's all there is to it. That's why many believe in bitcoin even though in the eyes of the majority it is impossible.

[stompix]

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

First, we will congratulate each other for living at least 100 years because I was in middleschool when the US was supposed to default and it's most likely my kid will finish college without it happening.
Second, nobody is going to give a damn about the bitcoin price anymore, with all markets collapsing, trade going bust and countries switching from 3rd world to sixth world economies, there will be nothing left to invest in Bitcoin anymore, you can see the effects right now in the markets, inflation war and fears of recessions have pushed the price down not up, it's optimism that has fueled the last bull run which seems to come to a halt, so if by a miracle the US defaults bitcoin will be the last of the world worry and for sure not something people will rush the trillions that are no longer there into.

This would be a clear example of: be careful what you wish for!

[Emitdama]

Too many weird questions, USA won't default on their debts, end of story. This has been talked about a million times already, and that is why I believe that we shouldn't really be wondering what to do, because we don't need to do anything or the price of bitcoin won't be affected or anything like that because it won't happen.

I know house has mainly republicans who will want to keep it as it is and not increase the ceiling, but enough protests from people will see them fix that too. I think the best thing about the current situation is that there are too many people who are wondering what to do and I think that is why it's such a good thing that we should be buying and taking advantage of the situation.

[GeorgeJohn]

One country can not abolish the existence of Bitcoin, that's what we have comprehend, but my instincts is telling me that it will affect Bitcoin if the rumors happened to be official, and another thing i find out in Bitcoin technology is that negative information or news really create impact in the market volatile in Bitcoin, but i believe that government can not eradicate the existence of Bitcoin.

[davis196]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

The USA owns the global money printing machine. How would they default? This doesn't make any sense.
The global fiat payment infrastructure(SWIFT) is also dominated by the USA. How many big banks and corporations are located in the USA?
There's no way for the USA to default. Of course many countries are already dumping their US treasury bonds and dollar reserves, but this has nothing to do with USA defaulting. The Federal Reserve will print more money and the US government will keep paying it's debts. The USD value will drop.
BTC and the altcoins are usually measured in US dollars, but that doesn't mean anything. If the US dollar value drops, one Bitcoin will be worth 100K USD or 500K USD, instead of 22K USD. And no, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin will become more valuable. The US dollar will simply become more worthless.

[hugeblack]

The wiser question is how long will the public debt ceiling be raised, especially since it has been moving at the fastest pace in a hundred years? How will the United States solve this problem?
Printing money is the easiest solution, but we will reach a stage where printing more money is absurd. Also, the increase in the number of people who do not see the United States as an ally, the increase in payment and dealing in currencies other than the dollar are all things that must be taken into account.

[OgNasty]

I don’t think that any good would come from a US default. You could make an argument that it would send Bitcoin’s value into the millions per coin, but I think the more likely scenario is all assets taking a major hit. I’m sure there will be survivors that go on to do well, but it’s impossible to say what actions the government would resort to in that scenario.

[SquallLeonhart]

The USA owns the global money printing machine. How would they default? This doesn't make any sense.
The global fiat payment infrastructure(SWIFT) is also dominated by the USA. How many big banks and corporations are located in the USA?
There's no way for the USA to default. Of course many countries are already dumping their US treasury bonds and dollar reserves, but this has nothing to do with USA defaulting. The Federal Reserve will print more money and the US government will keep paying it's debts. The USD value will drop.
BTC and the altcoins are usually measured in US dollars, but that doesn't mean anything. If the US dollar value drops, one Bitcoin will be worth 100K USD or 500K USD, instead of 22K USD. And no, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin will become more valuable. The US dollar will simply become more worthless.

The idea was politically I suppose, like they can avoid defaulting if they want to is something that is just factual and there is nothing around it, it is just a fact that they could print more and more money and get out of debt, there is no issues there. But will they? Was the question I suppose, if not then I do not know what OP is talking about.

There are politicians who says they should default the debt and face the reality, or even if not default, at least do not make more and just focus on the ones they have for a while until they are paid off, and I agree that it would be good to pay off debts, but they make enough profit to pay the last ones and make new ones so they won't bother with it.

[crzy]

There is no way to US to be on default, that will be a huge economic crisis and probably will be the start of another war, Bitcoin will not be spare from this because a lot of people will start to panic and prefer to have more cash than to have money online. I can’t imaging US being defaulted with their loans, that can be more worse than a pandemic so let’s not hope for that and I know US is working with their loans well and they are doing everything to prevent this kind of scenario.

[Abiky]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

I could imagine how easy it is to raise the debt ceiling when the whole world depends on the US Dollar as its reserve currency. This may be more of a drama than anything else. It's likely the US will never default during our lifetimes, especially when most countries depend on the US Dollar. The de-Dollarization process would be a slow and steady one to say the least. You can bet Bitcoin will rise astronomically in price if the USD weakens by a large margin. But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

American decline is happening before our very eyes, so it should only be a matter of time before the US is no longer a superpower. Let's see how Bitcoin will hold off in the long run. Just my thoughts

[yhiaali3]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

[Minecache]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

Because they own the machine that prints USD, and they can print as much as they want and withdraw whenever they want, as they were doing in 2022. Print money to save the economy during the pandemic, and now it's time to export inflation and withdraw USD.

I still haven't thought of the prospect of them falling, as long as something threatens their position as a great power, they will find a way to destroy it. It can be said that it is very unlikely that the US government will default or the US dollar will collapse.

If the US falls, there will be another great power to take its place, and that will be another centralized currency, not bitcoin. The chance of bitcoin is almost zero.

[adaseb]

I remember 20 years ago, before I invested or was involved in anything market related, they posted some debt/per person in the USA and it was crazy high. That was 20 years ago. People were saying that they had no choice but to default, did they?

No and they won't default anytime soon. They will just keep raising the debt limit and keep printing money. I don't think anyone wants them to default. It'll create more suffering than we already have. Plus the bonds are not showing any proof of defaults yet.

[aoluain]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

This is how I understand the US economy and US$  progressing ^{or regressing!}

The only safe haven for anyone's wealth is Bitcoin. We have been told many times
particularly by Michael Saylor that there is no other comparable store of wealth.

In the scenario above the demand for Bitcoin would explode.

[STT]

Soft default not hard default.   Soft default is when you pay taxes for a national pension for 40 years then just before you retire they raise the age at which you can retire by 1 or 2 years, this is soft default.  They will not return the value promised but it wont be a hard default.   Reason we can so sure of the soft default is that it is just alot easier to allow to happen then the alternative which as mentioned above could lead to war and extreme consequences for government failure.
   The stated aim of the FED is 2% inflation, we may see them overshoot that to average 10% at times but the main reason is the debt load is reduced by that inflation and neither dollar or government will exactly default or fail to pay however great value will lost to private citizens and bond holders.

[Franctoshi]

From my own perspective I do believe that it going to favour Bitcoin, because no one wants to be cut up in such event, so investors are gonna be running and be looking for a safe heaven assets and Bitcoin, Cryptos and Gold will benefit.  We could even begin to see where more and more countries begin to adopt Bitcoin and either make it a legal tender like the El Salvador did.
The fall of the dollar will be the rise of Bitcoin Imo.

[Abiky]

I remember 20 years ago, before I invested or was involved in anything market related, they posted some debt/per person in the USA and it was crazy high. That was 20 years ago. People were saying that they had no choice but to default, did they?

No and they won't default anytime soon. They will just keep raising the debt limit and keep printing money. I don't think anyone wants them to default. It'll create more suffering than we already have. Plus the bonds are not showing any proof of defaults yet.

The US can't keep raising the debt ceiling forever. There's a limit to everything. If they keep doing it, the American economy would be vulnerable to hyperinflation. That would mean a weaker USD within the not-so-distant future. It would be best for the US to pay its national debt first, before thinking of raising the debt ceiling.

Whatever happens, I think BTC will win in the long run thanks to the way it was designed. Deflation counteracts inflation, so technically, BTC price should go up in the long term. As more USD are added in circulation, its value will depreciate over time. That would be Bitcoin's opportunity to shine. Considering that Fiat currencies are a disaster right now, it's very likely Bitcoin will reach $1m as predicted. Who knows if we become the next Bitcoin millionaires? Just my opinion

[lionheart78]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

People love to spread gossip and rumors that bring fear and uncertainty and i also think that the rumor about the US will default will stay as a rumor and will not happen.  US is very influencial country and their currency USD is used by several country so it is less likey that uS will default.

While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

Well, if US defaulted then many institution will possibly look at Bitcoin's way of creating an institutional investment explosion  which can bring huge boost to the Bitcoin market. 

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

We don't know if the USD will no longer be the worlds reserve currency after the uS defaulted, one thing I am somehow thinking and that the Bitcoin market as I stated will have a boost which can lead to price increase.

[adaseb]

It seems that this “US defaulting” is becoming more and more active in the headlines. Because I keep hearing this topic being discussed almost daily. It was originally some suggestion of some bank and now all the news stories are printing it. And since they are printing it, means they have no idea how slim of a chance this is of happening.

They won’t default. They will just keep doing what they have been doing for the past few decades. The debt ceiling will be raised as usual and life will go on. This is not a reason for them to pivot and cut rates. Inflation is still too high and the fed needs a soft landing.

[pooya87]

But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

[Marvell1]

But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

I agree with this thinking, the EU economy is not sustainable, the recent war shows that the EU is too dependent on the US, and there will be no solution if it completely cuts off ties with Russia, and in case the US stops supporting, they will collapse completely. Euro cannot become a world currency like USD. The only competitor so far for the USD is none other than the Chinese yuan. With the current rapid development rate, if the US does not have any solution to restrain China's development. In the future, they will soon replace the US as a superpower and the renminbi will replace the US dollar.

[wxa7115]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Can the US even default on their debt? They can print all the dollars they want, and while this will mean a very high inflation, especially if governments around the world decide to begin to use their reserves and buy whatever they can with it, this will not be technically a default as the US government will still pay what they owe, they will just use devalued dollars.

At that point I expect the value of bitcoin to drop at the beginning of this process as many holders begin to sell  their coins to pay their own debts and other basic needs, but then I would expect bitcoin to perform really well as people try to find a currency that is not going through such a high inflation and only bitcoin and precious metals could fulfill that role.

[Abiky]

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

I can't imagine the Chinese Yuan becoming the next reserve currency in the world. It will give unfantomable power to China beyond comprehension. If that happens, China will rule the world. I don't think the USD will get out of its current position without a fight. Nothing lasts forever, so it's likely the world will have another reserve currency in the future (hopefully it won't be the Yuan).

What will that mean for Bitcoin, is an excellent question. The crypto market is tied to the USD (although many coins can be traded for other Fiat currencies), so a collapse of the USD might boost prices all the way to the moon. BTC would probably be in the "millions" if that happens. We're still early to the game, so why not keep buying and "holding" BTC to plan ahead for the future? Just my thoughts

[pooya87]

I can't imagine the Chinese Yuan becoming the next reserve currency in the world. It will give unfantomable power to China beyond comprehension. If that happens, China will rule the world. I don't think the USD will get out of its current position without a fight. Nothing lasts forever, so it's likely the world will have another reserve currency in the future (hopefully it won't be the Yuan).

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

What will that mean for Bitcoin, is an excellent question. The crypto market is tied to the USD (although many coins can be traded for other Fiat currencies), so a collapse of the USD might boost prices all the way to the moon. BTC would probably be in the "millions" if that happens. We're still early to the game, so why not keep buying and "holding" BTC to plan ahead for the future? Just my thoughts

Exactly.

[savetheFORUM]

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

[AverageGlabella]

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

War would make the dollar fall more wouldn't? As soon as you go to war and there is not enough money to go around the US would need to print more money off increasing inflation and the tax people pay. The dollar would feel the affect and drop further which will only convince other countries that they need to find an alternative to the dollar. I do not think a proxy war solves any thing for the US.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

A lot of asian countries prefer the dollar to the euro and if you are traveling from Europe it would be better to exchange your euros into dollars before traveling because while it is not their official currency they prefer it over local sometimes because it is more stable.

[LittleBitFunny]

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

The US dollar is still the global currency, still dominating the world currency, but it has weakened in recent years, and many countries have stopped using the US dollar in their commercial transactions. That has never happened before, and it shows that USD is weakening.
Of course, the renminbi will not replace the USD anytime soon, it will probably take a few decades for China to do that, and the US is doing everything to maintain its position. Anything is possible because, before the US, we also had Spain, France, and England, which once dominated the world.

[Abiky]

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

The de-dollarization process is inevitable. Countries are slowly stepping away from the USD, especially when they are starting to lose trust in it. Rising geopolitical tensions should leads us towards a shift in the world's reserve currency within the not-so-distant future. Empires don't last forever, so I'd expect the US to fall as the world's leading superpower in the long run.

What currency will replace the USD as the world's reserve currency is a mystery. It could either be one of the leading Fiat currencies in the world, or in a shocking twist, Bitcoin itself. I'd prefer BTC to become the world's reserve currency, as that would be a game-changer. Having a decentralized and censorship-resistant cryptocurrency leading the global economy, does come with its benefits. The odds of this happening are very slim, but you'll never know what the future holds for all of us. If countries adopt BTC as legal tender like El Salvador, then BTC will become the next reserve currency of the world. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts

[pooya87]

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

There really isn't any difference between dollar and yuan. Both are centralized unlimited fiat currencies that are printed by a centralized government and are devalued over time. That means adopting Yuan by Brazil for their trades is not going to hurt them any more than adopting dollar did.

War would make the dollar fall more wouldn't? As soon as you go to war and there is not enough money to go around the US would need to print more money off increasing inflation and the tax people pay. The dollar would feel the affect and drop further which will only convince other countries that they need to find an alternative to the dollar. I do not think a proxy war solves any thing for the US.

It both does and doesn't. We have to consider all the effects of this war.

On one hand What you said is correct and another negative impact is that high energy price and the global competition that's been happening is creating recession in US and the US economy is hurting badly. With non-stop money printing dollar is inevitably losing value.

On the other hand the US regime is heavily increasing its income through 4 major exports that would have never happened without this proxy war. They are oil, gas, food (eg. wheat, corn, etc.) and weapons.
For example without the proxy war with Russia the gas price would have never reached this high and US would have never had this much demand for their super expensive LNG. Russia needed to cut off gas export to Europe for Europe to be forced into buying US LNG.
Same with the other 3.

The real question is, how much longer this trend can continue before it all falls apart? What if the 70's is repeated and Europe dumps dollar again?