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Author Topic: Alts Blood Bath for Feb?  (Read 353 times)
rhomelmabini
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February 18, 2023, 06:48:32 PM
 #21

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

Anyway US session starts soon.  Let's see how it goes...
Historically February is a profitable month for Bitcoin so I'm not expecting it will have bloodbath this time, I think it will be this March and the market is somehow exhausted. If $21k doesn't hold then I'd think we can see another $18k but if it holds I think we will go sidelines from that area since that's a strong support for Bitcoin.
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February 19, 2023, 01:56:17 AM
 #22

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

Anyway US session starts soon.  Let's see how it goes...
Historically February is a profitable month for Bitcoin so I'm not expecting it will have bloodbath this time, I think it will be this March and the market is somehow exhausted. If $21k doesn't hold then I'd think we can see another $18k but if it holds I think we will go sidelines from that area since that's a strong support for Bitcoin.
I don't expect this February to be a bloodbath as bitcoin has already increased to $24k. After that, a price of $25 is about to be reached. And if there's a dip, the market can still survive and bitcoin can still survive, although there may be a dip. But the decrease will not be too drastic.

If the $21k-$22k doesn't hold up, that's going to send the price even deeper and I can't imagine how much the price drop will be. Maybe $19k, $18k, or even $17k or back to $15k again. Hopefully, that doesn't happen this year or in the following months.

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February 19, 2023, 08:16:48 AM
 #23

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

Anyway US session starts soon.  Let's see how it goes...
Historically February is a profitable month for Bitcoin so I'm not expecting it will have bloodbath this time, I think it will be this March and the market is somehow exhausted. If $21k doesn't hold then I'd think we can see another $18k but if it holds I think we will go sidelines from that area since that's a strong support for Bitcoin.
I don't expect this February to be a bloodbath as bitcoin has already increased to $24k. After that, a price of $25 is about to be reached. And if there's a dip, the market can still survive and bitcoin can still survive, although there may be a dip. But the decrease will not be too drastic.

If the $21k-$22k doesn't hold up, that's going to send the price even deeper and I can't imagine how much the price drop will be. Maybe $19k, $18k, or even $17k or back to $15k again. Hopefully, that doesn't happen this year or in the following months.

We are still in bear season, so if there is no drop in February, it will happen this year so instead of expecting it not to happen, we need to prepare when it happens. Sometimes it's not so bad for bitcoin to fall back and the market to crash again. Assuming bitcoin drops to $17k this month, that would be an opportunity for those who want to own more bitcoin for cheap. I'm ready for anything because the bears haven't disappeared yet, so surprises can happen anytime.

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February 20, 2023, 01:44:05 AM
 #24

We are still in bear season, so if there is no drop in February, it will happen this year so instead of expecting it not to happen, we need to prepare when it happens. Sometimes it's not so bad for bitcoin to fall back and the market to crash again. Assuming bitcoin drops to $17k this month, that would be an opportunity for those who want to own more bitcoin for cheap. I'm ready for anything because the bears haven't disappeared yet, so surprises can happen anytime.
I see a fractal for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 and it's possible to see Bitcoin move higher to $30,000 but I found a more important point. In 2019, after a good mini run, Bitcoin was pulled back and it ended 2019 with not too higher price than where it started.

I see it is safer to not bet that Bitcoin will rise more in 2023 and try to bet with higher risk in altcoins. If Bitcoin was pulled back, altcoins will be in blood path again. They are recovering and pumping too much from their bottoms.

If Bitcoin rises to $30,000, I will wait to see its pull back and can buy it about $25,000 again because I believe in fractals and it can not rise straightly to $69,000 in 2023.

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February 20, 2023, 04:43:49 AM
 #25

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
looking at how the market perform this month?
this is what is coming and happening .

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February 20, 2023, 02:02:20 PM
 #26

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

It's looking likely that most alts will end up in the red against Bitcoin, but probably neutral or green against fiat imo. I'm still waiting for alts to get left behind once Bitcoin starts really pumping.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

I see you posted this after Bitcoin's correction to $21.4K. Looks like time already answered your question, as can be retrospectively be seen as a natural correction back to support before further upside.

Yeah..  That's why I was asking as it was all looking good before that sell down to 21.4k or so.  Which looked like it was a change in sentiment.  I was wondering why when everything started to look good and seemed like the market sell downs have been exhausted.

But then a couple of days later, everything started getting back to the program again and started going up.  It's now almost up to 25k.  This week is gonna be crucial.  If it breaks out of 25k and holds, I think we're in for a ride to 28k - 32k range.

R


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February 20, 2023, 02:26:09 PM
 #27

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

It's looking likely that most alts will end up in the red against Bitcoin, but probably neutral or green against fiat imo. I'm still waiting for alts to get left behind once Bitcoin starts really pumping.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

I see you posted this after Bitcoin's correction to $21.4K. Looks like time already answered your question, as can be retrospectively be seen as a natural correction back to support before further upside.

Yeah..  That's why I was asking as it was all looking good before that sell down to 21.4k or so.  Which looked like it was a change in sentiment.  I was wondering why when everything started to look good and seemed like the market sell downs have been exhausted.

To me it looked like a natural & healthy correction, as it seemed unlikely Bitcoin was going to simply carry on to the upside without a pullback, although I was expecting a little lower around $20.9K. Rebounding from where it did clearly left some bulls behind as many were also expecting slightly lower, which just went to show how bullish the sentiment was back then with price bouncing above support rather than within.

On another note last weeks -7.5% drop to $23.3K looked more concerning to me at the time, as it happened with reasonable volume and mostly within 4 hours. But then within a day price completely eradicated that correction with even more volatility. Now I see there are bearish wicks to the upside on Daily time-frame along with bullish wicks to the downside on lower time-frame, very much creating not much else but noise.

But then a couple of days later, everything started getting back to the program again and started going up.  It's now almost up to 25k.  This week is gonna be crucial.  If it breaks out of 25k and holds, I think we're in for a ride to 28k - 32k range.

Not going to lie I was disappointed price didn't close last week above the August high of $24.3K, instead slightly below, but otherwise price is now comfortably above the 50 Week MA ($24.470) as it continues to decline which I think has had an instant positive impact. Regardless of the fact that last week it was at $24.7K and price closed below. If we keep knocking at the $25K door it will eventually break imo.

As you said this week will be crucial, either bullish with a close above $25K or bearish with a close below $24K, as the latter would be the second consecutive weekly rejection from long-term MAs (50 & 200 WMA).

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February 20, 2023, 06:48:02 PM
 #28

We are still in bear season, so if there is no drop in February, it will happen this year so instead of expecting it not to happen, we need to prepare when it happens. Sometimes it's not so bad for bitcoin to fall back and the market to crash again. Assuming bitcoin drops to $17k this month, that would be an opportunity for those who want to own more bitcoin for cheap. I'm ready for anything because the bears haven't disappeared yet, so surprises can happen anytime.
There is already a drop that happens not only in the month of February but also in the previous months but those drops are only small and prolly just a correction only. We aren't officially out of the bear yet but I think we are going to be once the price breaks $25k to $35k.

People are only optimistic for a bull run but it doesn't mean that they are not preparing for any bear possibilities. They do also. That is why they already have some saving with then and they will use it to buy more Bitcoins once it occurs. The game of crypto trading and investing won't be possible to be played if without those two cycles but there are still people who only likes to see one side of it.

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February 20, 2023, 08:10:54 PM
 #29

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
looking at how the market perform this month?
this is what is coming and happening .
Stagnant? We reached 24.5k for the first time in a long long time during this month, I mean it has already happened and not out future or something, it has already happened. I do not know what else do you want from the month, it is obvious that it has been a very great deal and has been properly a bull month if you ask me.

Maybe you wouldn't want to call it a bull just yet, I can understand that, but it has been a green month nevertheless and not a stagnant one at all, definitely not. It is doing alright so far and I believe that we wouldn't see anything that is stagnant about a month that has 10%+ daily movements a few times within that month, which we had.
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February 20, 2023, 09:13:27 PM
 #30

Now the market had reacted good amount,many of the trusted coin had raised today.I had some Trx coin in my wallet,it had give me some good profit by just holding it.Nearly 25$ had raised by holding of 550$ in my wallet.So it will be shocking news for me.It was unexpected profit by holding it.last week I had brought this tron coin.Now I had gained 25$ from it,like this holding is enough for the profit sometimes in the crypto currency.

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February 20, 2023, 09:59:36 PM
 #31

My prediction: just another month of nothing. We've been sitting at the same BTC price since June, and if I had to bet one way or another, I'd bet nothing is special about February. Alts and Bitcoin will stay roughly flat. Long term, I think they're going up, but I just see nothing dramatic that changes it one way or another this month.
Just expect flat market movement on altcoins, nothing exciting to see this month. Maybe the BTC price climbs back to $30k levels then altcoins gonna follow that path but I don't give more than 5% chance for this prediction. Market price stuck on this price level, focusing on short timeframe charts have better potential than waiting for a U-turn on altcoin markets. Let's see what happens if BTC whales make some surprises nowadays. In the worst-case scenario, the BTC price will touch $15k levels and the blood bath will be real, anything is possible with this volatility, IMHO.

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February 20, 2023, 10:42:13 PM
 #32

My prediction: just another month of nothing. We've been sitting at the same BTC price since June, and if I had to bet one way or another, I'd bet nothing is special about February. Alts and Bitcoin will stay roughly flat. Long term, I think they're going up, but I just see nothing dramatic that changes it one way or another this month.
Just expect flat market movement on altcoins, nothing exciting to see this month. Maybe the BTC price climbs back to $30k levels then altcoins gonna follow that path but I don't give more than 5% chance for this prediction. Market price stuck on this price level, focusing on short timeframe charts have better potential than waiting for a U-turn on altcoin markets. Let's see what happens if BTC whales make some surprises nowadays. In the worst-case scenario, the BTC price will touch $15k levels and the blood bath will be real, anything is possible with this volatility, IMHO.
Bitcoin would be always the main trend setter on which it would be pulling the alts most of the time.If it would be bearish then it would goes red but green then it would be the same but if we are seeing sideways movement then it would be on random since this is where usually altcoins do really make out some significant move but not really that much in compared when Bitcoin is on bullish run.

For this month of February it is really still considered to be good one considering that Bitcoins price is almost breaking that 25k price point but it would be better if it would be able
to break that resistance before this month ends. Long positions are really that still on hindrance on making one due to several rejections.

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February 20, 2023, 11:19:22 PM
 #33

My prediction: just another month of nothing. We've been sitting at the same BTC price since June, and if I had to bet one way or another, I'd bet nothing is special about February. Alts and Bitcoin will stay roughly flat. Long term, I think they're going up, but I just see nothing dramatic that changes it one way or another this month.
Just expect flat market movement on altcoins, nothing exciting to see this month. Maybe the BTC price climbs back to $30k levels then altcoins gonna follow that path but I don't give more than 5% chance for this prediction. Market price stuck on this price level, focusing on short timeframe charts have better potential than waiting for a U-turn on altcoin markets. Let's see what happens if BTC whales make some surprises nowadays. In the worst-case scenario, the BTC price will touch $15k levels and the blood bath will be real, anything is possible with this volatility, IMHO.
Bitcoin would be always the main trend setter on which it would be pulling the alts most of the time.If it would be bearish then it would goes red but green then it would be the same but if we are seeing sideways movement then it would be on random since this is where usually altcoins do really make out some significant move but not really that much in compared when Bitcoin is on bullish run.

For this month of February it is really still considered to be good one considering that Bitcoins price is almost breaking that 25k price point but it would be better if it would be able
to break that resistance before this month ends. Long positions are really that still on hindrance on making one due to several rejections.
I'm not sure how far the market gonna favour the bitcoin and altcoins market. Most of the time February month used to have decline and gradual rise in the market. This time too it looks like the same pattern. The market is gaining good momentum for forward push, and none is sure to which level the growth would happen this time.

Altcoins are in good position. I don't see the altcoins on blood bath. The market always have the dependence over bitcoin. For now altcoins investment seems to be good as the move of bitcoin would trigger the market.

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February 21, 2023, 02:35:51 AM
 #34

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
looking at how the market perform this month?
this is what is coming and happening .
Stagnant? We reached 24.5k for the first time in a long long time during this month, I mean it has already happened and not out future or something, it has already happened. I do not know what else do you want from the month, it is obvious that it has been a very great deal and has been properly a bull month if you ask me.

Maybe you wouldn't want to call it a bull just yet, I can understand that, but it has been a green month nevertheless and not a stagnant one at all, definitely not. It is doing alright so far and I believe that we wouldn't see anything that is stagnant about a month that has 10%+ daily movements a few times within that month, which we had.
actually what I mean is that the price had reached 24k this month but staying as is now as we are near closing the month , there is no argument that we had a great movement this month of February but what i wanna see is the price to reached 25 or at least 26k to be assured of the position.

but now we are just couple of bucks away to reach and may stay at 25k

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

congrats in advance to all of us.

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February 21, 2023, 04:26:21 AM
 #35

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
(....)
(....)
actually what I mean is that the price had reached 24k this month but staying as is now as we are near closing the month , there is no argument that we had a great movement this month of February but what i wanna see is the price to reached 25 or at least 26k to be assured of the position.

but now we are just couple of bucks away to reach and may stay at 25k

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

congrats in advance to all of us.
Seems everything is focused on right now and Bitcoin is their leader.
I believe that most of the altcoins now are just following Bitcoin, so for me, Bitcoin will lead and altcoins will follow, just like normal pumps even before.
As long as Bitcoin will stay above $20,000 this month, it's a good sign for the market especially the altcoins.

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February 21, 2023, 01:02:33 PM
 #36

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
looking at how the market perform this month?
this is what is coming and happening .
$30k sounds to be a challenging target at this moment, considering how market is behaving from the last couple of days or so. We've seen too many unstable movements to $25k and then down below to $23-22k. It seems like Bitcoin is having a pretty hard time holding its position above $25k mark.

We only got about 10 days for the month to end, and there are no clear signs of it clearing the $30k mark within this period, unless or until it crosses $26k and shows some stability there and then it might rally up from there. My guess is that we will stay between $20k and $26k this month. The first week of next month will show how it will be later that month.
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February 21, 2023, 02:31:09 PM
 #37

I'm not sure if this will be correct but for me? I think February is another stagnant month for bitcoin as we will stay from 20-25k or at least will break 30k usd.
looking at how the market perform this month?
this is what is coming and happening .
$30k sounds to be a challenging target at this moment, considering how market is behaving from the last couple of days or so. We've seen too many unstable movements to $25k and then down below to $23-22k. It seems like Bitcoin is having a pretty hard time holding its position above $25k mark.

Posted this elsewhere, and while I'd usually say ignore the short-term noise, sometimes the noise is trying to tell you something very simple:

On lower time-frame we already had the tests of resistance x2 with ascending support (higher lows x2), so was one step away from confirming ascending triangle structure.


While generally I'd agree that getting rejected with reasonable volume from $25K is bearish, it depends on where price goes next, and each time we have seen buyers step in at higher levels (at least so far). Getting rejected for the consecutive week at current levels would be bearish imo, but we'd need to see a close below $24K levels to really confirm a bearish weekly candle, and still 5 days to go yet.

We only got about 10 days for the month to end, and there are no clear signs of it clearing the $30k mark within this period, unless or until it crosses $26k and shows some stability there and then it might rally up from there. My guess is that we will stay between $20k and $26k this month. The first week of next month will show how it will be later that month.

Bare in mind that last time we had the break-out from $17K, that very much invalidated the bearish momentum, price increased by +20% within only 4 days. Whether price reaches $30K this month or next, I don't see it being a slow move to the upside, instead an explosive break-out, probably stronger than the previous one we saw from $17K to $21K, because we'll be creating first macro higher high for over a year. Also that break-out was from 2 months of range bound trading. A break-out above $25K would effectively be breaking out of an 8 month range (between $15K and $25K).

The stronger the resistance, the more explosive the break-out to the upside once it breaks. So personally I'd say 10 days is plenty of time to reach $30K. Only needs 1-5 days with high voume imo.

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February 21, 2023, 05:00:06 PM
 #38

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

Anyway US session starts soon.  Let's see how it goes...
Historically February is a profitable month for Bitcoin so I'm not expecting it will have bloodbath this time, I think it will be this March and the market is somehow exhausted. If $21k doesn't hold then I'd think we can see another $18k but if it holds I think we will go sidelines from that area since that's a strong support for Bitcoin.
I don't expect this February to be a bloodbath as bitcoin has already increased to $24k. After that, a price of $25 is about to be reached. And if there's a dip, the market can still survive and bitcoin can still survive, although there may be a dip. But the decrease will not be too drastic.

If the $21k-$22k doesn't hold up, that's going to send the price even deeper and I can't imagine how much the price drop will be. Maybe $19k, $18k, or even $17k or back to $15k again. Hopefully, that doesn't happen this year or in the following months.

We are still in bear season, so if there is no drop in February, it will happen this year so instead of expecting it not to happen, we need to prepare when it happens. Sometimes it's not so bad for bitcoin to fall back and the market to crash again. Assuming bitcoin drops to $17k this month, that would be an opportunity for those who want to own more bitcoin for cheap. I'm ready for anything because the bears haven't disappeared yet, so surprises can happen anytime.
We can expect no decline this February, especially since we are already in the last weeks of February. But indeed we must still be prepared if a decline occurs because we can use the decline to our advantage by doing so. And if we assume that there will be another decline at the end of February, we are still allowed to buy more bitcoins before the price starts to increase again. But I don't expect the price to go back to $17k but maybe it could reach $22k again. If we are ready to face anything, we can survive all conditions and use it well for our benefit.

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tokeweed (OP)
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February 23, 2023, 01:51:31 PM
 #39

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

It's looking likely that most alts will end up in the red against Bitcoin, but probably neutral or green against fiat imo. I'm still waiting for alts to get left behind once Bitcoin starts really pumping.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

I see you posted this after Bitcoin's correction to $21.4K. Looks like time already answered your question, as can be retrospectively be seen as a natural correction back to support before further upside.

Yeah..  That's why I was asking as it was all looking good before that sell down to 21.4k or so.  Which looked like it was a change in sentiment.  I was wondering why when everything started to look good and seemed like the market sell downs have been exhausted.

To me it looked like a natural & healthy correction, as it seemed unlikely Bitcoin was going to simply carry on to the upside without a pullback, although I was expecting a little lower around $20.9K. Rebounding from where it did clearly left some bulls behind as many were also expecting slightly lower, which just went to show how bullish the sentiment was back then with price bouncing above support rather than within.

On another note last weeks -7.5% drop to $23.3K looked more concerning to me at the time, as it happened with reasonable volume and mostly within 4 hours. But then within a day price completely eradicated that correction with even more volatility. Now I see there are bearish wicks to the upside on Daily time-frame along with bullish wicks to the downside on lower time-frame, very much creating not much else but noise.

But then a couple of days later, everything started getting back to the program again and started going up.  It's now almost up to 25k.  This week is gonna be crucial.  If it breaks out of 25k and holds, I think we're in for a ride to 28k - 32k range.

Not going to lie I was disappointed price didn't close last week above the August high of $24.3K, instead slightly below, but otherwise price is now comfortably above the 50 Week MA ($24.470) as it continues to decline which I think has had an instant positive impact. Regardless of the fact that last week it was at $24.7K and price closed below. If we keep knocking at the $25K door it will eventually break imo.

As you said this week will be crucial, either bullish with a close above $25K or bearish with a close below $24K, as the latter would be the second consecutive weekly rejection from long-term MAs (50 & 200 WMA).

It could be a correction but looking at things now it could also be BTC starting some shenanigans again and starts doing what it did from August to November.  I'd be more comfy saying it's all just corrections before resuming the trend back up again if BTC breaks out well above 25k resistance then flips it, corrects to it and makes it the new support.  

Take a look at the chart...  Let's just hope that there's not gonna be some bs news taking everything back down below 20k again.


R


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dragonvslinux
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February 23, 2023, 02:31:06 PM
 #40

I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath.  And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.

It's looking likely that most alts will end up in the red against Bitcoin, but probably neutral or green against fiat imo. I'm still waiting for alts to get left behind once Bitcoin starts really pumping.

I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys.  Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves..  Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?

I see you posted this after Bitcoin's correction to $21.4K. Looks like time already answered your question, as can be retrospectively be seen as a natural correction back to support before further upside.

Yeah..  That's why I was asking as it was all looking good before that sell down to 21.4k or so.  Which looked like it was a change in sentiment.  I was wondering why when everything started to look good and seemed like the market sell downs have been exhausted.

To me it looked like a natural & healthy correction, as it seemed unlikely Bitcoin was going to simply carry on to the upside without a pullback, although I was expecting a little lower around $20.9K. Rebounding from where it did clearly left some bulls behind as many were also expecting slightly lower, which just went to show how bullish the sentiment was back then with price bouncing above support rather than within.

On another note last weeks -7.5% drop to $23.3K looked more concerning to me at the time, as it happened with reasonable volume and mostly within 4 hours. But then within a day price completely eradicated that correction with even more volatility. Now I see there are bearish wicks to the upside on Daily time-frame along with bullish wicks to the downside on lower time-frame, very much creating not much else but noise.

But then a couple of days later, everything started getting back to the program again and started going up.  It's now almost up to 25k.  This week is gonna be crucial.  If it breaks out of 25k and holds, I think we're in for a ride to 28k - 32k range.

Not going to lie I was disappointed price didn't close last week above the August high of $24.3K, instead slightly below, but otherwise price is now comfortably above the 50 Week MA ($24.470) as it continues to decline which I think has had an instant positive impact. Regardless of the fact that last week it was at $24.7K and price closed below. If we keep knocking at the $25K door it will eventually break imo.

As you said this week will be crucial, either bullish with a close above $25K or bearish with a close below $24K, as the latter would be the second consecutive weekly rejection from long-term MAs (50 & 200 WMA).

It could be a correction but looking at things now it could also be BTC starting some shenanigans again and starts doing what it did from August to November.  

For sure, not going to argue there. There still is a lack of confirmation that the bear market is truly over. Without breaking $25K, there is little to no confirmation despite the bullish looking move.

I'd be more comfy saying it's all just corrections before resuming the trend back up again if BTC breaks out well above 25k resistance then flips it, corrects to it and makes it the new support.  

Personally, I'd be happy enough with a higher low (>$20K) on macro scale with a return to $25K. While price was rejected by this resistance for the second time, I don't think it'd hold as resistance a third time. As for flipping $25K into support, I very much doubt this will happen anytime soon based on previous times Bitcoin has broken a strong resistance level that has led into a new uptrend.

A few examples, notably the trend change scenarios:

  • Breaking $4K resistance in April 2019. Took 11 months and a black swan event to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 3x)
  • Breaking $6.4K resistance in May 2019. Took 7 months to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 2x)
  • Breaking $20K resistance in December 2020. Took 18 months to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 3.5x)*

*This one is subjective as wasn't based on a trend change, but still remains relevant imo as very much confirmed a new bull market.

You more of less have to go back to 2015 to see the 10 month long resistance level of $300 flipped to support a month later. Or otherwise the July 2020 breakout above $10K resistance that was re-tested two months later, but this one is again more subjective as was merely a continuation of a bullish uptrend within a relatively neutral consolidation environment. Not trend change based in particular. This only goes to show that Bitcoin does indeed flip old resistance into new support quite regularly and in a "normal" manner compared to other markets, with the notable exception of doing so when the tide changes.

There are also many on the sidelines singing the same tune of waiting for $25K to be turned into support, as opposed to the break-out above this level, and I feel these more conservative investors will get left behind as they have done consistently in the past, particularly the trend change scenario in 2019. Waiting for a re-test of $4K or otherwise a re-test of $6.5K (when at best there was a quick wick to $6.6K, ie no meaningful consolidation turning resistance into support). Many will wait for a rejection of $30K for the re-test of $25K, but if 2019 is anything to go by this might not act as any resistance either once price reaches it.

I also don't think waiting on the sidelines is the worst idea if you want to see $25K or $30K turned into support, as I do think it will eventually happen, but if past Bitcoin trend changes are anything to go by, it may well be a case of having to wait 6-12 months in order to enter (or re-enter) the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin could easily go to $50K, and yes I mean easily as above $30K there is low volume. I'm not suggesting anyone should FOMO into a break above $25K, but more so that $26K or $27K might not be that much of a premium to pay if prices return to >$30K, compared to the risk waiting for an imminent re-test.


Take a look at the chart...  Let's just hope that there's not gonna be some bs news taking everything back down below 20k again.

I mean anything is possible, but I think it's unlikely. To me it seems we already had the bs news that took price down to $15.5K, after Bitcoin had spent 5 months carving out a bottom that without that FTX news, could well of held imo. I'd be a lot less comfortable if we didn't already have the news orientated upside bart style fake-out to the downside, that's for sure.

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