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[Tytanowy Janusz]

While for short term I cannot argue, I don't think that it'll go too high this year (and whether the high point will be in May or later I don't know), on long term (decade) you seem to have missed the halvings and the ever increasing difficulty; this cannot be sustained for 10 years only with max 60k price (and usually lower).

This is correct if we assume some variables are constant.

1- mining efficiency thanks to Moore's law. Its no longer double each 2 years but its still an exponential grow. We can have slowly growing hashrate without price going up. Mining efficiency is not constant.
2- demand stays the same so price have to go up when supply goes down. But demand is not a constant and supply goes down a little % of a whole supply. Its not like during first/second halving:

1st halving reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Second halving reduced monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. Halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions and of course ADOPTION.

My point is that each halving has lower fundamental impact. In about 100 years we will cut mining rewards from 2 sats/block to 1 sat/block (the very last halving). I don't think that price will double thanks to this only because miners rewards are getting cut by half (from 0.00105 BTC/ year to 0.000525 BTC/ year while whole supply is 21M). At that day no one will care about halvings. I thinks we have 0-3 halvings left that will have any impact on price. Although i know its not very popular statement in crypto community.

3- the fact that hasrate has to go up. In fact it dosn't. We can be at the top of first hashrate cycle and now a decade going sideways.

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[NeuroticFish]

That's by far not expected. Institutions have more likely (and bigger amounts too) liquidity saved to buying at bottom whatever they can (usually competitors, but Bitcoin is also very appealing at this price).

Institutionals, represented by various banks and funds, will definitely not miss the opportunity to buy at the bottom of the market. As soon as central banks release liquidity to the markets, buying will become more tangible.

Ooohhh, so sorry. I've fixed now my other post too. It was a typo there. I meant "That's by far not unexpected."
I hope now it makes more sense. Yes, they started buying and as the bullish trend becomes something beyond doubt they're expected to increase their sales. We're on the same page 

My point is that each halving has lower fundamental impact. In about 100 years we will cut mining rewards from 2 sats/block to 1 sat/block (the very last halving). I don't think that price will double thanks to this only because miners rewards are getting cut by half (from 0.00105 BTC/ year to 0.000525 BTC/ year while whole supply is 21M). At that day no one will care about halvings. I thinks we have 0-3 halvings left that will have any impact on price. Although i know its not very popular statement in crypto community.

You're right about the far future, but we're not there yet. The amount obtained from tx fees is still small compared to the block reward. And will still be so after the next halving.

3- the fact that hasrate has to go up. In fact it dosn't. We can be at the top of first hashrate cycle and now a decade going sideways.

The advance in technology still happens. Intel has entered the game and I think that they've made a much more comprehensive research than you and me. And if this step is expected by them to cover the costs and also bring them very good returns, that means that the hash rate will still grow in the near future. So again, your logic may be right for a farther iteration, not for now...

[sha420hashcollision]

Hey look, this govt funded entity posted statistics to make it appear as if inflation is going down!! 
You cannot be so easily fooled can you? Inflation is not something that just goes up and down it is permanent, you cannot take inflation out of the current centralized monetary system and anyone who really believes you can is a moron.

[Findingnemo]

So this proves when inflation goes down the price of Bitcoin will rise and ironically when it goes high the price even get higher unless the price of Bitcoin affected by other factors.

Bitcoin on the rise no matter what, one more valid proof to hold Bitcoins over fiat at whatever situation it is.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Intel has entered the game and I think that they've made a much more comprehensive research than you and me.

They are a hardwere producers not a miners. So they care to sell x amount of units not about how profitable they are. Am I wrong here?

You're right about the far future, but we're not there yet. The amount obtained from tx fees is still small compared to the block reward. And will still be so after the next halving.

You are right that example I posted shows very far future. My point was to show the end-game that we are heading too. How negligible the last halving will be. So the good question is where are we now? We know that first halving (reduce inflation from 25% to 12%) had huge impact on price and was fallowed by a 100x pump. Second one (from 9% to 4,5%) was fallowed by a 40x pump. Third halving (from 4% to 2%) and a 6x pump. 4th halving will reduce inflation from 1.5% to 0.7% and its possible that we will do only a 2-3x pump or not if markets will be disturbed by recession or WW3.

5th halving and we will cut inflation from 0.6% to 0.3%. Does it matter? Especially if we evaluate bitcoin in a currency that inflation changes by 1% in a month/month basis.

I know the narrative, that miners wont sell at loss so price have to go up. But price will go up only if we assume that demand is constant. Which is not. It can go down as well and those miners that did not sell at loss wont have cash to pay for bills and will go bust reducing difficulty for others. Other miners will mine cheaper bitcoins that they will sell at profit even lower. Difficulty doesn't have to go up all the time.

I'm not saying that bitcoin will not reach new ATH. I'm saying that all 3 scenarios posted above are possible and the fact that we will have halving in next year doesn't change that.

[UchihaSarada]

I know the narrative, that miners wont sell at loss so price have to go up. But price will go up only if we assume that demand is constant. Which is not. It can go down as well and those miners that did not sell at loss wont have cash to pay for bills and will go bust reducing difficulty for others. Other miners will mine cheaper bitcoins that they will sell at profit even lower. Difficulty doesn't have to go up all the time.

Miners have to sell their bitcoins to pay their electricity bills especially small miners who can not have good budget to hold their bitcoins in bear market. Miners who have bad financial management and take too high leverage in bull market will not only have to sale off their bitcoins but will also face with bankruptcy.

Miners have miner capitulations

I'm not saying that bitcoin will not reach new ATH.

It will, if not in 2024 it will make a new all time high in 2028 or 2032.

I believe in controlled supply and good adoption growth of Bitcoin, its demand will only become bigger. Price will have to rise and new all time highs have to occur.

Bitcoin took 6 months to get 1000 users; 5 years to find 1 million users.

Today, 13.8 years from inception, it has 300m+ users, 4% of the world.

At current growth rates, 1 billion users will be hit in the next 3 years. That's 12% of the world.

[mendace]

I never heard about bitcoin price been affected by inflation either directly or indirectly, bitcoin price is extremely determined by the market demand and supply but what makes them both isn't the role of the inflation on the general parallel market, if we are to compare bitcoin as well with other commodities in the market serving as assets or trade items bitcoin is over beyond their control without being affected by what those centralized institutionizations have on their market price with bitcoin.

What you write makes sense to a certain extent, as inflation can indeed indirectly affect the value of Bitcoin. For instance, it can erode the purchasing power of fiat currency, prompting investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin. Therefore, it can indirectly cause an increase or decrease in the value of Bitcoin

[Macadonian]

How does inflation benefit BTC? I thought that the more inflation on the dollar the poorer people are getting and the more likely they are to look for an alternative? Inflation happens because of printing off money and the government needs to pay that back and they rely on the people to pay it back with increased inflation costs. If the inflation reduces it means they are not printing as much money off and the economy will be more affordable and stable and people will not look for an alternative currency.

We need inflation to continue rising so that the people get tired of the rising costs and look for deflationary currencies and BTC is 1 of the only currencies which is designed to be deflationary and we will get more adoption because people will find us because of the rising inflation cost.

[lizarder]

I used to hear opinions that bitcoin helps in case of rising inflation, but this chart breaks this idea of ​​the market, since during the growth of CPI, bitcoin also reacts negatively to these events.

In other words, inflation and recession have not affected the journey of bitcoin and this has been proven time and time again. The total availability of bitcoins creates a demand on the economic relationship (Supply and Demand) in its course, while the supply decreases causing the bitcoin price to increase, and moreover many holders do not release bitcoins and continue to accumulate them for the long term, so that demand is only available on a few exchanges.

The fact is that bitcoin allows investors to limit their exposure, so that when confidence in fiat currencies wanes in the midst of a recession and ongoing inflation, many people will move their assets to bitcoin. I think these two variables are quite close to the actual analysis. Possible!!!!

[kryptqnick]

Nice job on highlighting the correlation between inflation and the price, op! Some time ago, it could have actually been surprising to me. My intuition around 2019 was that an economic crisis would hit soon, major fiat currencies would collapse via hyperinflation, and that's when the world would realize that Bitcoin doesn't suffer from that, can't be overprinted, and can save wealth when the economy is suffering. Interestingly, my intuitions were completely wrong, as when inflation hit the top currencies, the panic spread to other markets, including cryptos, and when things started looking better, people started feeling more confident about investing money in stuff, particularly in Bitcoin.

[NeuroticFish]

Intel has entered the game and I think that they've made a much more comprehensive research than you and me.

They are a hardwere producers not a miners. So they care to sell x amount of units not about how profitable they are. Am I wrong here?

I talk about mining ASIC chips. I don't know if they make the miners too or only the chips and it doesn't matter much in this discussion. Even if they're only the chips, they have no other use than for mining Bitcoin or similar coins, hence being used inside mining hardware.
And they can sell a good number of units only if mining stays profitable. Else the mining businesses will certainly not invest into new hardware... At least this is how I see the things.
The Intel miners (ASIC chips or full devices, whatever) are a novelty, but I doubt people (and businesses!) will only buy them as collectibles 

You are right that example I posted shows very far future. My point was to show the end-game that we are heading too. How negligible the last halving will be. So the good question is where are we now? We know that first halving (reduce inflation from 25% to 12%) had huge impact on price and was fallowed by a 100x pump. Second one (from 9% to 4,5%) was fallowed by a 40x pump. Third halving (from 4% to 2%) and a 6x pump. 4th halving will reduce inflation from 1.5% to 0.7% and its possible that we will do only a 2-3x pump or not if markets will be disturbed by recession or WW3.

5th halving and we will cut inflation from 0.6% to 0.3%. Does it matter? Especially if we evaluate bitcoin in a currency that inflation changes by 1% in a month/month basis.

This math is actually not too bad. But this means the next pump will go 2-3x from the last ATH (if no recession or bigger war). And this contradicts the initial statement that in the next decade (meaning 10 years) the price stays in the 20k-60k range.
So what I've missed or where we don't understand each other?

I know the narrative, that miners wont sell at loss so price have to go up. But price will go up only if we assume that demand is constant. Which is not. It can go down as well and those miners that did not sell at loss wont have cash to pay for bills and will go bust reducing difficulty for others. Other miners will mine cheaper bitcoins that they will sell at profit even lower. Difficulty doesn't have to go up all the time.

That's correct. Still, the history has shown for now that the difficulty went down only for rather short periods of time and this trend seems to still be strong. For how long? I don't know, but, again, it breaks that 20k-60k range prediction.

I'm not saying that bitcoin will not reach new ATH. I'm saying that all 3 scenarios posted above are possible and the fact that we will have halving in next year doesn't change that.

Franky1 has some interesting calculations he posts here and there. According to those, now the minimum price for obtaining bitcoin (by the miners) seems to be at about 15k (maybe 16k).
The halving will make that minimum price become 30k (maybe 32k), hence I think that it's still the main fuel for the next massive pump (or bubble).
As I said, your long term calculations are not bad, still, last block (777359) had 6.25BTC block reward and less than 0.25BTC tx fees; the tx fees are still not a big enough percentage of the total income to make a real difference. I think that the problems you're telling about will really happen only when the tx fees will become larger then the block reward.

[spectre71]

The problem with CPI is that it is a flat out manipulated lie.

[crwth]

The results of this depend on the people who are reading CPI. Like what they would do once the CPI results are already out. I think it's a highly complex case knowing that there are a lot of factors to consider

I think of it this way:
- If there's a high CPI rate, then they would be looking for a hedge against inflation; hence, markets that are best for hedging, like BTC and real estate, would go up. The results of this would cause the other markets, like stocks, to plummet.

It's hard to pinpoint because there's no right trend based on the graph provided. You can see the CPI increased and decreased, but there's no solid information given. It's still circumstantial, right?

[crypticj]

it's good, but we still need to wait until FED will lower rates because economy is still in danger and something could breakdown any day now. So be carefull buying crypto right now.

[Kakmakr]

I think you are seeing patterns in things that act naturally to important announcements in the Press. We know that some people regard Bitcoin as a store of value, so they might react to negative news on the inflation rate. They might look at Bitcoin or Gold to protect their wealth, but I think more institutional investors are shifting their wealth to Gold.

The inflation statistics are manipulated on a continuous basis to boost the global economy, so I will not just rely on that to determine my trading decisions. 

[Japinat]

So this proves when inflation goes down the price of Bitcoin will rise and ironically when it goes high the price even get higher unless the price of Bitcoin affected by other factors.

Bitcoin on the rise no matter what, one more valid proof to hold Bitcoins over fiat at whatever situation it is.

This is the gift that Satoshi Nakamoto gave to us, it is indeed an opportunity have another option to hedge ourselves from the rising inflations that is almost uncontrollable and then profits afterwards for choosing bitcoin as an option. Apart from that, when the factor is just about inflation, there's just less risk that bitcoin will eventually goes higher because lots of people will begin to choose bitcoin to avoid inflation.

[davis196]

It seems that you are trying to find a correlation where it doesn't exist.
Inflation is slowing down because:
1.The supply chain disruptions get solved and the global economy is adapting.
2.Increased interest rates by the big central banks.
3.Reduced demand for some goods, which pushes the inflation levels down.
4.The expectations of a recession are still strong.
The Bitcoin price is going up because:
1.There aren't any major FUD news.
2.No big crypto company has went bankrupt/hacked/exit scamming.
3.The US dollar lost a part of it's value in comparison to the first half of 2022. This means that one BTC is worth more USD than before, because USD is cheaper, not because BTC became more expensive.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

And they can sell a good number of units only if mining stays profitable. Else the mining businesses will certainly not invest into new hardware... At least this is how I see the things.
The Intel miners (ASIC chips or full devices, whatever) are a novelty, but I doubt people (and businesses!) will only buy them as collectibles  

But all this intel discussin is to prove that bitcoin can't go down because big company can't be wrong by investing in mining chip technology. But history is full of such mistakes. Like KODAK or NOKIA. Nvidia also made many mistakes trying to fulfill ETH miners needs during ICO bubble in 2017.

This math is actually not too bad. But this means the next pump will go 2-3x from the last ATH (if no recession or bigger war). And this contradicts the initial statement that in the next decade (meaning 10 years) the price stays in the 20k-60k range.
So what I've missed or where we don't understand each other?

Its not from ATH but from halving date price. So if we will have halving @ 30k, its possible to bounce from last ATH.

That's correct. Still, the history has shown for now that the difficulty went down only for rather short periods of time and this trend seems to still be strong. For how long? I don't know, but, again, it breaks that 20k-60k range prediction.

Agree. Predicting a reversal of a strong 10 year trend is most often a mistake. But its also worth to mention that bitcoin was created in 2009 (after GFC) and existed only during a decade of booming economy and globalization. I'm not so sure we are booming now and will be in next few years.

Nothing is certain. There are only probabilities.

[tygeade]

That's by far not expected. Institutions have more likely (and bigger amounts too) liquidity saved to buying at bottom whatever they can (usually competitors, but Bitcoin is also very appealing at this price).

Institutionals, represented by various banks and funds, will definitely not miss the opportunity to buy at the bottom of the market. As soon as central banks release liquidity to the markets, buying will become more tangible.
I found an interesting infographic for 2022, which shows the inflation rate in different countries:

Honestly, I checked and couldn't see the two top highest ones, were they omitted because they have high inflation? Argentina and Turkey has officially the highest ones, these are nations that reached 100% levels officially, probably a lot more considering governments would want to hide it as much as they possibly can.

At the end of the day, it is not an easy task to have something like this going on, 100%+ is surreal, imagine paying double for everything, and that's the average, which means somethings got three four times more expensive as well. Lowest inflation is fine, I wonder how the people from highest inflation actually feels about crypto.

[savetheFORUM]

So this proves when inflation goes down the price of Bitcoin will rise and ironically when it goes high the price even get higher unless the price of Bitcoin affected by other factors.

Bitcoin on the rise no matter what, one more valid proof to hold Bitcoins over fiat at whatever situation it is.

That's probably because when inflation rate is high, people with money take refuge in assets like Bitcoin to save their money from getting inflated. Similarly, when the inflation rate is low, people start saving up but again with the fear of inflation, they don't do it in traditional ways but modern ways of saving like buying and storing Bitcoins.

Either way, it's a win-win for Bitcoin and it's admirers with global economy dropping or growing, we will always see significant growth over time for Bitcoin. More and more institutions will see this change and will surely get around Bitcoin and try to leverage to technology in their own favor.