The way to identify the money coming back is a very important and difficult thing to realize, but if we can identify it, we will have a very nice position and an extremely good profit, so to receive the cash flow, we usually You will see the following signs.
Mostly you have to look at 6-18 months ahead and ask yourself a question what type of news we will read that day because market is never pricing current day. Retails do financial decision based on today news. They are always wrong.
just like we've seen it last years:
2020 - broken supply chains, covid - Retail sell at the bottom based on current news, how bad it is for economy. Smart money see money printing acceleration combined with production limitations and knows that we will have inflation spike 2 years later. Everything pumps
2021 - inflation spike. Retail buys the top of gold, the top of stocks and the top of bitcoin to find a "inflation hedge" to save their savings. Smart money knows that everything is cyclical and after inflation spike there will be disinflation (among others thanks bullwhip effect) and most likely a recession.
2022 - retails scared of recession sell at big loss waiting for FED pivot to buy back - printing will save asset they think. Smart money buys the dip right after news from big companies about redundancies
2023 - retails buys FED pivot - smart money sells the news.
Treating the amount of negative news as an indicator of the bottom can be good only if the future in the perspective of 0.5-1.5 year is not gonna be worse.