Can the exact date of the next Bitcoin halving be determined accurately?

[Cantsay]

I was reading an article about Bitcoin halving when I noticed a timer, and according to them, the time tells when the next Bitcoin halving is most likely to occur.

I did some research and the results were all different, and since this will be my first Bitcoin halving since becoming a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, I'd like to know if it's really possible to know the exact date of the next halving which is to happen in the year 2024.

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[Jawhead999]

AFAIK it will depends on how fast or slow every block to be completed until it will reach the 840,000th block, the average estimation of each block to complete is 10 minutes, but it's just an average calculation and the Bitcoin difficulty will increase too which can effect to complete the block. That's why there's no accurate estimation when it will be completed because it depends on each people to calculate it.

[UchihaSarada]

Noboday can say exact date of next halving.

Bitcoin block reward halving happens after every 210,000 blocks since a previous halving block. It is an exact number and you can calculate a next block number at which block reward will be halved again.

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Exact date is impossible to say because block time is very different but the average time is about 10 minutes. Time between two blocks can be a few seconds, 10 minutes or more than 10 minutes. It makes impossible chance to say an exact date for a next halving.

[CageMabok]

I was reading an article about Bitcoin halving when I noticed a timer, and according to them, the time tells when the next Bitcoin halving is most likely to occur.

I did some research and the results were all different, and since this will be my first Bitcoin halving since becoming a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, I'd like to know if it's really possible to know the exact date of the next halving which is to happen in the year 2024.

It will be very difficult to know the exact date for the next half bitcoin in 2024. Because it is the same as knowing the day the next half bitcoin occurs and I think it will be very difficult for many people to know, and for example it can be known from now on. Of course there will be many people who want to wait for that date and there will also be many rich people on that date. And of course in the article that you read is also not mentioned about the date for the next half bitcoin right?

[death69]

Lemme school ya on the lowdown of Bitcoin halving, cuz it ain't no set-in-stone event, ya dig? It only goes down once the Bitcoin network hits a specific block height, which happens about every 210,000 blocks or so, give or take. And while we can't pin down the exact date and time of the next halving, we can make an educated guess based on the current block height and average block time.

Now, I know y'all are eager to know when the next halving's gonna happen, but hold up, it ain't an exact science, my dudes. We can only estimate that it's gonna be around April or May of 2024. But don't go bettin' your life savings on that date just yet, cuz fluctuations in the mining network can still throw a wrench in our predictions

[hugeblack]

There is no specific date and time in the blockchain, but an attempt to maintain an average of 10 minutes between each block. Based on this, it is expected when the next block will be mined, so you will get a normal distribution curve, a dispersion standard of two months, and a higher chance of occurrence during that two months.
But if you want to calculate the block, you will get 100% accuracy.

[decodx]

I'd like to know if it's really possible to know the exact date of the next halving which is to happen in the year 2024.

I don't think we can. Just like we can't predict the precise timing of the next block or any subsequent blocks, it's not possible to predict the precise timing of block 840,000, which is still 61,640 blocks away at the time of this post.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

There can be a lot of random content on the internet, some of which is simply misinformation uploaded by random people with no concrete results to back it up. I recently discovered that it takes 210,000 blocks to be mined before halving occurs, and some search engine results indicated that a possible halving in 2024 will occur on March 4th or March 18th. I obtained the information from this source. 
Just as hugeblack mentioned, if you calculate the block to get 210,000, you will know when it will be.

[franky1]

guys its a halving per 210,000 blocks

but the timing is not "10 minutes" accuracy

its aim is actually 2016 blocks per fortnight. which equates to a hopeful average of a block per 10 minutes.(conversationally.. not categorically)

emphasis: trying to maintain the accuracy is not about any code pushing for "10 minutes"
its actually code adjusting difficulty if there are more or less than 2016 blocks a fortnight.

[dimonstration]

I was reading an article about Bitcoin halving when I noticed a timer, and according to them, the time tells when the next Bitcoin halving is most likely to occur.

I did some research and the results were all different, and since this will be my first Bitcoin halving since becoming a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, I'd like to know if it's really possible to know the exact date of the next halving which is to happen in the year 2024.

I know that everyone knew this but the simple answer to this inquiry is a big NO. We all know that blockchain halving event is based on the number of blocks and not the time. The time of block being is dynamic so it means that the date for the specific block to be mined is impossible to determined especially if it’s still far.

Maybe it’s only possible if there’s only few blocks away to have a few margin of error on the ETA. But for now the date is indefinite.

[Little Mouse]

But if you want to calculate the block, you will get 100% accuracy.

Did you mean the 840000th block? That's pretty simple.

Just as hugeblack mentioned, if you calculate the block to get 210,000, you will know when it will be.

It's impossible to know the exact date. hugeblack didn't tell about the accuracy of when it will be I think. You can calculate the average timing since there's adjustment every 2016 blocks as mentioned above post but that doesn't guarantee any accurate date. You can have an estimation as all the websites do. That's it. You can't confirm anything with whatever calculation you do.

[naira]

I did some research and the results were all different, and since this will be my first Bitcoin halving since becoming a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, I'd like to know if it's really possible to know the exact date of the next halving which is to happen in the year 2024.

I'm sure everyone will be united in saying that no one knows the exact date when the halving will occur. Because even if there is research from various articles in the end everything will end in wild speculation or maybe some analysis will still end the subject without a definite date.
After all, it doesn't matter when it happens because there is no point in not collecting Bitcoins. Halving will be very special for those who hold it.

For that, if you believe in Bitcoin then start cultivating it from now on.

[Godday]

Bitcoin Halving Day is an event every four years where the reward for Bitcoin miners will be halved every 210 thousand blocks that occur until the maximum Bitcoin capacity limit is reached, which is 21 million Bitcoin.  I don't think we can pinpoint the exact date because this is an annual event and it goes from year to year and there is never a fixed date in each year.

[solehdavid]

Can be predicted, but no exact date can be given. The Bitcoin protocol initiates a halving event on the Bitcoin blockchain when the number of blocks on the chain reaches 210,000 (approximately every four years).

When the number of blocks halves, the Bitcoin protocol automatically prepares for a new halving. Therefore, as the number of blocks on the blockchain increases, this date can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy.

Currently (as of 2023), the next Bitcoin halving can be expected to take place around May 2024. However, this date may change depending on the number of blocks on the blockchain.

[Rikafip]

Yes, the exact date of the next Bitcoin halving can be accurately determined in advance. The Bitcoin protocol initiates a halving event on the Bitcoin blockchain when the number of blocks on the chain reaches 210,000 (approximately every four years).

Nope, exact halving date can't be known in advance, the best we can to is estimate it and all the websites with halving counters do exactly that. All that we know is that the next halving will happen at the block 840,000 but problem is that we can't be 100% sure when that will happen because blocks are not mined at the exactly 10 minutes interval and instead that's just an approximate average.

[UchihaSarada]

Nope, exact halving date can't be known in advance, the best we can to is estimate it and all the websites with halving counters do exactly that. All that we know is that the next halving will happen at the block 840,000 but problem is that we can't be 100% sure when that will happen because blocks are not mined at the exactly 10 minutes interval and instead that's just an approximate average.

Even two or three blocks before the next halving block #840,000, we still can not know exact time when the halving block will be mined on the network. Three blocks can be mined in a little more than 10 minutes if there are two blocks occur in a few seconds and a third block occur after about 10 minutes (an average block time). Three blocks can be mined in more than 30 minutes if all those three blocks are mined around average block time. It can be to 40 minutes if one of three blocks needs 20 minutes to be mined.

We can not know it exactly.

The Average confirmation time shows the uncertainty of block time
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/avg-confirmation-time

[franky1]

lets simplify

even if we use the lame "10 minute" conversational average
if blocks from now until block 840,000 averaged just 10m 1 second that can change the ETA by 17 hours
average of 10m 7 seconds can change the ETA by 5 days

[crwth]

This is a fun game that some members have made it into a contest that makes it interesting to do to accurately predict the halving. It’s going to be hard but it’s just an estimate for now since it’s always an approximation with how long the solving of the blocks is.

Something like this. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.0

[franky1]

This is a fun game that some members have made it into a contest that makes it interesting to do to accurately predict the halving. It’s going to be hard but it’s just an estimate for now since it’s always an approximation with how long the solving of the blocks is.

Something like this. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.0

start a competition in the gambling section of the forum if you want

[yhiaali3]

Yes, as everyone pointed out, it is very difficult to know the exact time of the next halving, but the percentage is approximate because the time is not fixed, but rather it changes with difficulty.

Therefore, it is natural to find differences between the sites that give the date of Halving, but this difference will decrease with the passage of more time and the approaching event.

For me it is not important to know the exact timing of the halving, it is enough to know that it occurs approximately every four years after 210,000 blocks of the previous halving.