Mt. Gox will release bitcoin in march - what's next?

[adaseb]

Can anyone who is a MtGox creditor can confirm if they are actually going to get their coins in March? I’ve been hearing this for years and it almost always gets pushed back.

Obviously it’s not bullish. Will be a big dump when the first transaction from the MtGox trustee wallet is moved since there are some people that probably need to sell the bitcoins because they need the funds.

[STT]

I thought they had already received something, guess I was wrong but the price just dropped harshly so the market appears to believe its receiving new supplies immediately from perceived selling.   What I think is more likely is there was already pressure in the price, constricted range and in fact we've broken down rather then upwards.  

The deadline to select a repayment option is 10 March, with repayments expected to begin in September this year.

 The actual supply of coins is not actually the most important thing, it has an effect short term possibly if entering order books it will upset balance.   Overall its not new information for new supply possible, theres all kinds of sources of BTC from various parties that can be sold but arent people just hold onto them or use them for a variety of alternatives outside of exchanges.
  Graph now indicates we need to revise maybe all of the 20k prices, we will be moving more slowly then some would have hoped.  I think we still get to 30k as a very reasonable target before any real actual selling comes in from holders who are disillusioned with BTC price performance, as speculators thats normal phenomena as are these rumours that unfold and trigger falls in the price.   Without confirmation we probably recover this fall before cycling through again.

[BITCOIN4X]

I thought they had already received something, guess I was wrong but the price just dropped harshly so the market appears to believe its receiving new supplies immediately from perceived selling.   What I think is more likely is there was already pressure in the price, constricted range and in fact we've broken down rather then upwards.

Traders and investors who are not sufficiently able to ignore price down risks will likely sell above $23K, which has made the market dump much of the day's price. News like this can cause panic, but of course some people are starting to disbelieve about the planned release of the bitcoin Mt. Gox to his creditors.

Something seemed doubtful about possible reversal of the market trend after the bull run during early 2023 to February, but right now some might still be strong enough to hold on and take advantage of this panic to collect bitcoin. $20K or lower I think will be very likely following the Mt. Gox plan, but I hope the news will only be fictional and won't happen before the next ATH takes a hit.

[philipma1957]

Well if they release 130k coins over 6 months time it will be 21 or 22k coins a month.

Since we mine only 27-28 k coins a month it means a price drop due to easier availability.

I have to think ¼ to ⅓ of those coins will be sold . so 7k maybe 9k a month for sale over the next 6 months.

time will tell if it happens.

[Baofeng]

I thought they had already received something, guess I was wrong but the price just dropped harshly so the market appears to believe its receiving new supplies immediately from perceived selling.   What I think is more likely is there was already pressure in the price, constricted range and in fact we've broken down rather then upwards.  

The sharp decline though has nothing to do with Mt. Gox, as I believed it has to do with the Silvergate potential bankruptcy. And if it is about Mt. Gox news, then it's pure FUD.

It's all over the crypto news and financial media outlets, so I guess we can't discount Mt. Gox for now, after the decline and sudden -6% drop in prices.

And as far as I know, it hasn't been distributed yet and it's going to be a slow 6 months to moved from the Gox trust to creditors

[Lucius]

Can anyone who is a MtGox creditor can confirm if they are actually going to get their coins in March? I’ve been hearing this for years and it almost always gets pushed back.

Obviously it’s not bullish. Will be a big dump when the first transaction from the MtGox trustee wallet is moved since there are some people that probably need to sell the bitcoins because they need the funds.

What I know is that payments will be possible in Bitcoin, FIAT, and for some reason an altcoin whose name I don't want to mention at all. In other words, some will certainly decide on a bank transfer because it is a much easier option for them if they are already planning to sell BTC, and let's assume that the trustee will sell BTC through OTC.

Regarding confirmation, there is an official document that confirms that date, but as a deadline for submitting applications and correcting existing ones - while payments will start as soon as possible after that date. Maybe finally, after 10 years, the creditors will wait for their moment, and maybe not - after all, these are "super-efficient" Japanese people.

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20230106_announcement_en.pdf

[bittraffic]

With that much BTC to release, it's going to make this market plunge.
Of all time since 2014, why is 2023 a mandatory date for mtgox coins to be released while the coins are stuck on them for too long?
Who would coerce Mtgox to release those coins by the way and why are the coins not seized when its open season for seizing wealth right now. I doubt it will be released.

[AbuBhakar]

With that much BTC to release, it's going to make this market plunge.
Of all time since 2014, why is 2023 a mandatory date for mtgox coins to be released while the coins are stuck on them for too long?
Who would coerce Mtgox to release those coins by the way and why are the coins not seized when its open season for seizing wealth right now. I doubt it will be released.

Bitcoin will surely plunge if they release all the coins on one batch but they are planning to pay all the customer by batch in the course of 7 months. This might gonna give a negative impact on Bitcoin price but not that enough to dump Bitcoin price to the level when pandemic first hit.

There’s a high chance that recipients will sold immediately right after they received the funds but I think there’s still a lot of traders too that waits to buy their Bitcoin on lower price to balance the sell off.

[Falconer]

Can anyone who is a MtGox creditor can confirm if they are actually going to get their coins in March? I’ve been hearing this for years and it almost always gets pushed back.

Obviously it’s not bullish. Will be a big dump when the first transaction from the MtGox trustee wallet is moved since there are some people that probably need to sell the bitcoins because they need the funds.

You and I share the same perception of Mt. Gox, but anyway it's always good to consider this one to plot things out when we really want to stick around. I mean, plan the investment and prepare budget in case big dump happens. We will get cheap bitcoin afterwards.

Since the news, bitcoin has undergone a correction that sent the market down. Bitcoin lost a few percent of its last price before the news was released, that is bad FUD for most traders.

[royalfestus]

The deadline to register payee information is in mid-March. This was pushed back from early January. I don’t think there’s any chance payouts come in March. There’s still a lot of work to be done and with the US forcing exchanges to close accounts of Americans left and right, I imagine even getting the payouts to their appropriate creditors is going to be a hassle.

I also think that these payments, if nothing changes again, as it has happened many times before, will last a very long time. The exchange won't be able to pay each user the full amount in one lump sum. This procedure will drag on for a long time and will most likely have no effect at all on the market, which has a huge capitalisation compared to when Mt Gox scammed. This news may even have played out a long time ago.

Is from March 10 to September 30, the payment will be in a mix of 2 cryptocurrencies and cash,there are chances the exchange might add further delay
1. 142,000 bitcoin ($3.3 billion) Price as at today
2. 143,000 bitcoin cash ($19 million)
3.  69 billion Yen ($510 million)
I dont expect a big impact in the price with the duration of distribution but FUD will play a small part

[SirLancelot]

Similar to my thoughts I think we had our chance when we got past 25000 to go on a bull run but these repayments are probably going to cause negative news for the next couple of months and I think that will affect the potential increase in price. I think we will break 25000 in the next month or 2 but I do not think we are breaking 30000 in the next 6 months.

Even if we passed the elusive $25k, the bull run is still going to be disrupted with these mt gox issue but I know that we can resume again afterwards. The price is still at $23k plus at the moment and it wasn't really far from $25k so I dont' think we will need 2 months max for this. $25k is pretty possible within this month but what is hard is $30k.

It's fine though because I know that we can still wait for that. Many of us are not new in this game anymore and we are use to long waits already. For those who are impatient, well that was their problem already but there is always coins which can fit better for them. That would be the new coins.

[Captain Corporate]

Whenever there is a good price direction that sees us a little higher, we end up with these type of news and its ordinary by now. If the market falls for it and doesn't go up then its the fault of the market and not these manipulators. The amount of money that will be unloaded in the market is nothing that we can't cover in a day or two, its really nothing, this is a billion dollar worth industry every single day, even more if you consider everything. So all in all there is no reason to keep on thinking this will be a bad thing, its going to be ordinary and shouldn't change anything, but when you consider all the FUD people selling and screaming because of it, it becomes even bigger than it suppose to be.

[buwaytress]

Somehow after all these years of MtGox coin rumours and their potential impact on markets, I feel like even if this comes to pass, we'll be okay.

And even if there is an impact. Better now in the throes of the bear rather than on a rally. A proper purge?

[adaseb]

Well if they release 130k coins over 6 months time it will be 21 or 22k coins a month.

Since we mine only 27-28 k coins a month it means a price drop due to easier availability.

I have to think ¼ to ⅓ of those coins will be sold . so 7k maybe 9k a month for sale over the next 6 months.

time will tell if it happens.

Many miners don’t sell the coins right away however. In the past they generally held them and sold them in a bull market. The issue with MtGox will be that once the coins from the trustee start to move, it will create alot of panic and many non-MtGox coins might be sold because many will think they can buy it back cheaper after the dumping stops.

These days with social media, Twitter, Reddit, as soon as there is an alert sent out of the MtGox trustees moving coins then it’ll create some downward pressure.

[Lucius]

With that much BTC to release, it's going to make this market plunge.

How about you read something other than the title? If it has already been written that payments will be made in batches and that not everything will be paid out in cryptocurrencies, so where exactly do you see the danger that such a process would shake up the cryptocurrency market? We are not talking here about 1+ million BTC, but something less than 150 000, of which I do not believe that even 50% will come to the market right away - and even if that happens, we should not expect the apocalypse that some have been talking about for years.

[indah rezqi]

We are not talking here about 1+ million BTC, but something less than 150 000, of which I do not believe that even 50% will come to the market right away - and even if that happens, we should not expect the apocalypse that some have been talking about for years.

Yes, even though many people will sell it, we never expect apocalypse. After all most of Mt. Gox creditors seems to know that the bitcoin halving has triggered ATH, so they will probably wait for higher price instead of selling all their bitcoin right away. 50% of that bitcoin could be sold, but however the market it would only respond for some time before finally the market will recovering.

[fzkto]

We are not talking here about 1+ million BTC, but something less than 150 000, of which I do not believe that even 50% will come to the market right away - and even if that happens, we should not expect the apocalypse that some have been talking about for years.

Yes, even though many people will sell it, we never expect apocalypse. After all most of Mt. Gox creditors seems to know that the bitcoin halving has triggered ATH, so they will probably wait for higher price instead of selling all their bitcoin right away. 50% of that bitcoin could be sold, but however the market it would only respond for some time before finally the market will recovering.

I agree that there will definitely not be an apocalypse because of this story. But for a while, sellers will dominate the market by about as much as miners sell. I don't see this as a good factor for bitcoin growth, but I do see it as a short-term phenomenon.

[Falconer]

I agree that there will definitely not be an apocalypse because of this story. But for a while, sellers will dominate the market by about as much as miners sell. I don't see this as a good factor for bitcoin growth, but I do see it as a short-term phenomenon.

I also agree, dump can occur due to massive sales made by creditors.
But it's an opportunity to take advantage of if you're have budget, obviously to me it's only going to be a rare phenomenon after ATH $69K. But of course I don't expect a big dump, but it's inevitable because that's how it is likely to be.

[adaseb]

If you go to the MtGox Solvency reddit which is at,

https://old.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/

And you read some of the posts you get conflicting info. Some people think they will get paid in a few days, some think there will be another delay and some think they will get their bitcoins sometime in September.

Very hard to get anything concrete. So until those coins in the cold storage wallet finally start to move... we will just assume it will get delayed again.

[EdenHazard]

Can anyone who is a MtGox creditor can confirm if they are actually going to get their coins in March? I’ve been hearing this for years and it almost always gets pushed back.

Obviously it’s not bullish. Will be a big dump when the first transaction from the MtGox trustee wallet is moved since there are some people that probably need to sell the bitcoins because they need the funds.

What I know is that payments will be possible in Bitcoin, FIAT, and for some reason an altcoin whose name I don't want to mention at all. In other words, some will certainly decide on a bank transfer because it is a much easier option for them if they are already planning to sell BTC, and let's assume that the trustee will sell BTC through OTC.

Regarding confirmation, there is an official document that confirms that date, but as a deadline for submitting applications and correcting existing ones - while payments will start as soon as possible after that date. Maybe finally, after 10 years, the creditors will wait for their moment, and maybe not - after all, these are "super-efficient" Japanese people.

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20230106_announcement_en.pdf

I have seen these kind super tricky announcement.

And it never end well , changing the plan on how they going to pay the creditors time after time just to make them a bit more calm , relax and silent ... but then it never coming , smells like a cheap trick to gain a couple bucks while the market hit by a pretty big correction due this a-well made up boombastic news .