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Author Topic: Bitcoin's Price Development: A Quick Recap  (Read 118 times)
mv1986 (OP)
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March 09, 2023, 06:19:26 PM
Last edit: July 03, 2023, 09:02:13 AM by mv1986
Merited by 1miau (20), Symmetrick (10), bakasabo (5), vapourminer (4), JayJuanGee (1), DdmrDdmr (1), dragonvslinux (1)
 #1

Hello guys,

I know this topic isn’t new, but sometimes you come across some well prepared graphics or websites that remind you once again of how absolutely astonishing the journey is that Bitcoin has taken so far over the last 13.5 years. Years and years ago, if somebody said to you that he is about to write software that is able to produce something like a digital coin, which then will outcompete any and all existing asset classes for over a decade in terms of yield, it would at best have evoked a weary smile from others. At the latest when the question by which this mysterious coin is backed, would have been answered with: “mining!“ With what? The expended energy to solve algorithmic riddles, which in turn promise the solver a fixed amount of X Bitcoin as a reward, the so called coinbase transaction.

All of this would have sounded very absurd to almost all of us. That is not the case anymore as a lot of folks in this forum have developed over the years a decent understanding of the technology. As I was just dealing with a couple of topics concerning crypto, I came across an interesting website and, despite being aware of this already, thought that this is just still incredible to look at and recap once more:



Be aware that these are logarithmic scales. In order to present the data arithmetically, you would probably need an x-thousand inch screen to properly mark the data points! Wink

Information about the very first official Bitcoin prices are not to be verified that easily. Perhaps someone from here can confirm or correct what I found. Based on some sources I found, the prices varied between $0.0008 and $0.00099.

This is why in the first screenshot it says one could have turned a $1 investment into $28,466,600, if the investment had been made at the earliest possible point in time ($1/$0.0008=1250 BTC * ~$23,000). The numbers don’t match precisely as the prices are volatile these days, but it’s roughly correct.

The sources about this are exciting and what I find quite frequently is that a first trade happened based on the so called "New Liberty Standard", which is a fixed amount of  X Bitcoin per $1.

How exactly price developments affected the standard and how deviations from it were accounted for, since it was an open market by then, is beyond my knowledge.

It remains to be said that a first trade took place by the end of 2009 between Bitcointalk users (the forum was launched on 22nd November,2009), which resulted in 5,050 Bitcoin being exchanged for $5.02 via PayPal.
This equates to less than a USD cent per Bitcoin.

If you invested $1 in Bitcoin 13 years ago, you could have turned that $1 into roughly $3.6 million. If you had been around for even longer, like 13.4 years ago, you could have turned $1 into the above mentioned (in the screenshot) $28.4 million (depending on the exact point in time as Bitcoin is volatile these days).

I have to admit there is a bit of wistfulness inside me. Just imagine if you bought $10 worth of Bitcoin and locked them away with Check Lock Time Verify (CLTV) for 10 years. That wouldn’t have bothered you at all, just a $10 gamble for fun. And you could have invested another $10 to play around and trade with them as Bitcoin continues to exist or even grow.

But if locked away those $10 worth of Bitcoin, the time afterwards wouldn’t have passed without pain. As you would not have been able to access those coins, you might have thrown your laptop out the window out of desperation, condemning yourself from being so “naive“ to make such long-term considerations and now not being able to realize any gains:



However, one quickly forgets that you would have supposedly sold the coins way too early anyway instead of patiently waiting for all those peaks without pushing the sell button. Additionally, back at the time there was only the nLockTime function available and CLTV was only added by the end of 2015 .

The first screenshot I provided was the first half of the website. Now I am going to provide you with the second half:



What I do particularly like about that website is the little greeting in red that the creator left for Peter Schiff! Cheesy

Indeed we had an inverse price development of Bitcoin and gold over the last two years provided in this overview. The year 2022 was certainly not a good one, but I am optimistic now since we started 2023 at $16,500 and despite all the turmoil and mediocre or even bad news we are still well positioned with 33%.

Now let’s see what the future holds for us. Or should I say HODLS for us? Wink

What do you guys think about this recap and was it good to once more provide you with a reminder how remarkable Bitcoin’s journey has been so far?

I am optimistically looking forward to what’s coming and close this post with: HODL on, dear friends!

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March 09, 2023, 11:09:51 PM
Merited by mv1986 (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #2

Your overview is very nice and it shows perfectly which massive price development Bitcoin has experienced so far. Sure, it won't go on how it did, forever and models like stock-to-flow are ridiculous FOMO, but Bitcoin's potential looks really promising long term. Best strategy: Buy, forget about it for 10 years and after 10 years are over, see how much Bitcoin increased in value (nobody will manage not to check prices for 10 years but it's meant more symbolically). Cheesy


Also a very interesting site:


Source: https://hodl.camp/

Price gain or price loss is visualized, if we had bought Bitcoin at a specific date, compared to today's price. Smiley
By moving our mouse above it, we can get some more data.




However, probably only very few early investors will be left, who have actually benefited from Bitcoin's early low prices until now.
Dangers against HODL were quite numerous:

- Sold too early (not enough hodled)
- Private keys misplaced / forgotten / binned
- Got hacked
- Lost on Mt. Gox
- Lost due to Shitcoins or Shitcoin industry (ICO / Ponzi / DeFi Bullshit / collapsed stablecoin / useless NFT)
- Lost due to Scammers
- Transaction made to a wrong address
- Lost due to trading...

We have to avoid many dangers to HODL our coins safely. Wink



HODL on, dear friends!
Agreed, HODL!  Smiley



Maybe you can move your topic to Speculation or Bitcoin Discussion, where it's more appropriate in my opinion?  Smiley

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mv1986 (OP)
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March 09, 2023, 11:41:24 PM
Merited by 1miau (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #3

Your overview is very nice and it shows perfectly which massive price development Bitcoin has experienced so far. Sure, it won't go on how it did, forever and models like stock-to-flow are ridiculous FOMO, but Bitcoin's potential looks really promising long term. Best strategy: Buy, forget about it for 10 years and after 10 years are over, see how much Bitcoin increased in value (nobody will manage not to check prices for 10 years but it's meant more symbolically). Cheesy


Also a very interesting site:


Source: https://hodl.camp/

Price gain or price loss is visualized, if we had bought Bitcoin at a specific date, compared to today's price. Smiley
By moving our mouse above it, we can get some more data.




However, probably only very few early investors will be left, who have actually benefited from Bitcoin's early low prices until now.
Dangers against HODL were quite numerous:

- Sold too early (not enough hodled)
- Private keys misplaced / forgotten / binned
- Got hacked
- Lost on Mt. Gox
- Lost due to Shitcoins or Shitcoin industry (ICO / Ponzi / DeFi Bullshit / collapsed stablecoin / useless NFT)
- Lost due to Scammers
- Transaction made to a wrong address
- Lost due to trading...

We have to avoid many dangers to HODL our coins safely. Wink



HODL on, dear friends!
Agreed, HODL!  Smiley



Maybe you can move your topic to Speculation or Bitcoin Discussion, where it's more appropriate in my opinion?  Smiley

Thanks @1miau, topic moved as per your suggestion.


Source: https://hodl.camp/

Yes, this is an extremely valuable graphic and in my opinion it's important educational material. When you think about the early days, we didn't have these overviews. We couldn't look back and say "hey, see holding is paying off and there are bumps in the road along the way". Now we do have these overviews and they provide some useful info in regards to how to go about Bitcoin investing. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you have bad luck, you have just been catching falling knife but patience could resolve the issue. Hence, don't invest money you need anytime soon and get forced into liquidation of your digital assets.

Whether it is the overview I provided or your graphic, all these build an entire picture that help understanding the market we are dealing with here. There is enormous potential, but also enormous short-term downside risk.




Quote
However, probably only very few early investors will be left, who have actually benefited from Bitcoin's early low prices until now.
Dangers against HODL were quite numerous:

- Sold too early (not enough hodled)
- Private keys misplaced / forgotten / binned
- Got hacked
- Lost on Mt. Gox
- Lost due to Shitcoins or Shitcoin industry (ICO / Ponzi / DeFi Bullshit / collapsed stablecoin / useless NFT)
- Lost due to Scammers
- Transaction made to a wrong address
- Lost due to trading...

We have to avoid many dangers to HODL our coins safely. Wink

Oh yes, and I have been around when the alt coin hell broke loose and it was so damn tempting to use your Bitcoin and jump into one of those roller coasters. But I handled it decently because I had an army of graphics cards mining (for the most part) the alt coins that I was interested in. Actually, I am thinking about posting a funny story regarding my living situation as a student when I was mining. My lord, I can tell you! Cheesy My apartment was worse than a McDonald's in Texas without an AC at maximum outside temperature. Cheesy

But all the points you mentioned are very true and I know people as examples for every single one of that list. I myself traded on Mt. Gox when it closed its doors.

But I think that by far the most dominant factor was people selling "too early". It is relative right, what does "too early" even mean when you still made amazing profit and hopefully kept some for the time to come. A 100% exit at maybe $100 when you entered at double digit prices would still be painful given where we are today. 

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March 10, 2023, 03:42:35 AM
 #4

-snip-

Now let’s see what the future holds for us. Or should I say HODLS for us? Wink

What do you guys think about this recap and was it good to once more provide you with a reminder how remarkable Bitcoin’s journey has been so far?

I am optimistically looking forward to what’s coming and close this post with: HODL on, dear friends!

It's very interesting to see the movement of Bitcoin from time to time. From these graphs I see that even though it is a little unstable, Bitcoin is able to provide a fairly high ROI to its old investors, it proves that Bitcoin is a very profitable asset to invest in for a long time. Or if you are a good scalper, Bitcoin is good enough to be your trading asset.

R


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March 10, 2023, 08:30:30 AM
 #5

-snip-

Now let’s see what the future holds for us. Or should I say HODLS for us? Wink

What do you guys think about this recap and was it good to once more provide you with a reminder how remarkable Bitcoin’s journey has been so far?

I am optimistically looking forward to what’s coming and close this post with: HODL on, dear friends!

It's very interesting to see the movement of Bitcoin from time to time. From these graphs I see that even though it is a little unstable, Bitcoin is able to provide a fairly high ROI to its old investors, it proves that Bitcoin is a very profitable asset to invest in for a long time. Or if you are a good scalper, Bitcoin is good enough to be your trading asset.

Yes and as I mentioned above these overviews show that there are extended periods of time that turn out to have been bad entry points for traders if they did not intend to hold for the long-term. That is an important lesson. Every now and then you read predictions in the forum here, or people ask whether they should take a loan, buy Bitcoin and sell at double the price. But you can see here that plan has a significant probability for failure. Using short-term means like taking a loan or selling your valuable belongings in hopes of buying it back soon with your Bitcoin profits is dangerous, naive and doomed to fail. Rather, go for a very strict DCA approach with money you don't need tomorrow and you won't have sleepless nights.

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March 10, 2023, 01:01:50 PM
Merited by mv1986 (3), 1miau (1)
 #6

Holding - the only way to succeed with Bitcoin. Otherwise consider getting less than you should every time you sell. The most difficult part of holding is to resist reading news and be around crypto, as temptation of selling is growing every second Smiley

R


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March 11, 2023, 12:48:40 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #7

But I think that by far the most dominant factor was people selling "too early". It is relative right, what does "too early" even mean when you still made amazing profit and hopefully kept some for the time to come. A 100% exit at maybe $100 when you entered at double digit prices would still be painful given where we are today. 
Yes, making some decent profits is very tempting and many people are happy to do so even if it doesn't bring them gains of what Bitcoin potentially offered from a few cents to even a few hundred Dollar per Coin.
Since I haven't been following Bitcoin around 2009 / 2010 / 2011, it's easy from my point of view to say "just HODL" to people sitting on massive gains and recommend to keep HODLing.  Cheesy
For sure, it would be different if we had unrealized gains of a few Million USD but as you've said, I would keep at least half instead of selling all Bitcoins.  Cheesy
It's a good recommendation.  Smiley



Holding - the only way to succeed with Bitcoin.
You are right, it all boils down to Trade vs. HODL and I believe just HODLing will be much more profitable compared to trading. It is hard to make predictions but after my comparison in a separated topic, also called Trade vs HODL - avoid traps I see much more benefits in HODL.

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