Bitcoin will (probably) go lower.

[crypticj]

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be bearish or say that bitcoin is bad and you shouldn't buy it. I still think that DCA is the best tactic to choose in any circumstance. So keep buying bitcoin, it is the future of money and great technology.

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it.

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[palle11]

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Your strong point and analysis to say bitcoin price drop is coming is all about inflation but I don't think that is what will happen to bitcoin only because of that. Are you saying when the inflation is high then people withdraw hodling and to take care of life? But during COVID-19 that was restrictions and low income earning, we saw gradual increase in investment and appreciation of price so inflation should not be the only reason for price drop. Bitcoin has the tradition of fall in price a year before halving.

[stompix]

But during COVID-19 that was restrictions and low income earning, we saw gradual increase in investment and appreciation of price so inflation should not be the only reason for price drop.

What appreciation was there?
Once inflation started climbing bitcoin was only going down, every single announcement over CPI triggered another dump, the only time it jumped was when, surprise, the announcement came that inflation has cooled off. No, contrary to what was expected by some, in times of rising inflation BTC did poorly, actually managing a first, that is going below the previous ATH level, and not by a tiny fraction.

And you can see it again now, Silvergate and the FED saying rates will keep going higher and there you have it, 10% in a flash and sub 20k.
No, BTC  doesn't thrive in an inflation either, and for sure not in a looming economic recession, it has ceased to overwhelmingly be a safe haven refuge and is more a tradable asset that moves as stocks do.

This is BTC correlation with Nasdaq, almost the entire year it stayed up closer to 1 than to half a point and din;t go blow zero till the very end finally diverging.


The bright side in this is that most likely once the whole inflation and recession crap is finally done and gone the increase would probably overshadow everything else on the markets.

[dragonvslinux]

Once inflation started climbing bitcoin was only going down, every single announcement over CPI triggered another dump, the only time it jumped was when, surprise, the announcement came that inflation has cooled off. No, contrary to what was expected by some, in times of rising inflation BTC did poorly, actually managing a first, that is going below the previous ATH level, and not by a tiny fraction.

Technically not every bearish CPI announcement caused another dump, this is just retrospectively what people perceived to have happened. Can give examples if required...
There were a few where price had already dumped, so instead price rallied to the upside (last year in particular), or otherwise just went sideways for longer.
But everyone only remember the times when priced dumped after the announcement, as opposed to when it didn't or the opposite occured...

And you can see it again now, Silvergate and the FED saying rates will keep going higher and there you have it, 10% in a flash and sub 20k.

After rejection from $25K a lot of people saw $20K incoming, as a usual bull market retracement. Obviously within a longer term bear market it looks a lot more severe, as it well could be.
Silvergate bankruptcy or not, after $23K broke I was expecting $20K to come next. Maybe Silvergate accelerated that process, but it seemed likely long before that news broke imo.
I'm not just saying this in hindsight, I stated numerous times in different threads that either $25K breaks and we go to $30K, or we go back to $20K...

No, BTC  doesn't thrive in an inflation either, and for sure not in a looming economic recession, it has ceased to overwhelmingly be a safe haven refuge and is more a tradable asset that moves as stocks do.

Maybe you can help to unravel the followings data then, as so far nobody has been able to explain the following:

2014-2015 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2018-2019 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year

So despite the subjectivity of Bitcoin going below previous ATH for first time, or below 200 Week MA - which is more about the lack of blow off top in 2021 than a poor performance in 2022 - why has Bitcoin performed better after 15 months+ in it's 2022-2023 bear market with high inflation than previous bear markets without? Is it because it will do worse eventually, ie more than -83% drop below $12K?

For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12. I'm trying to understand why many are speculating that Bitcoin will do worse in 2023 than previous bear markets and go sub $12K (-83%) when so far after a year since ATH it has performed much better than usual. Anything above $12K isn't worse...

The only logical answer I've heard so far is that without the blow-off top in 2021, then price performed better because of that. The lack of blow-off top could be attributed to anticipated inflation, so therefore inflation was priced into the market in 2021, hence Bitcoin didn't do as well as usual or expected, as opposed to 2022? But with the same logic, a recession could well be priced in a year in advance as well.

So does this then mean that Bitcoin's rise in 2021 was due to impending high inflation (after post covid19 money printing etc)? I'm not very convinced, again, I think this is just 4-year all over again.

This is BTC correlation with Nasdaq, almost the entire year it stayed up closer to 1 than to half a point and din;t go blow zero till the very end finally diverging.

This is true, no-one can deny the correlation. But at the same time, I'm not particularly bearish about the S&P or Nasdaq. There was a lot of selling 2022 with the anticipation of a recession and therefore a long-term bear market to follow (like 10 year long or something). But so far this recession hasn't happened yet it seems (even though it obviously still could), and Bitcoin could de-correlate at any point like it has in the past.

The bright side in this is that most likely once the whole inflation and recession crap is finally done and gone the increase would probably overshadow everything else on the markets.

The irony being that if the high inflation / recession clears up by 2024/2025, then a Bitcoin recovery & bull market would likely be contributed to this factor, rather than it's reliable and unbroken 4-year cycles  

[Smack That Ace]

I don't want to make predictions on how much it will fall because I'm not good at technical analysis, and I also believe bitcoin is unpredictable. But I hope your prediction is correct because I want bitcoin to be priced as low as possible, I don't want bitcoin to recover and rise again anytime soon. Bitcoin's decline is an opportunity, not a time to panic. Like when we go to the market, an excellent product is being sold at a high discount, which is a good thing. Similarly, if we have a chance to buy bitcoin at a lower price, the profit will be more in the future. Don't forget, the early adopters of bitcoin got rich because they bought bitcoins at super low prices.

[thecodebear]

Well there were a lot of things that all came together at the same time to cause the drop under $20k. Silvergate going bust, job growth being too strong and inflation didn't go down much in February so FED chairman just said past couple days interest rate raises will probably continue longer and therefore go higher (which doesn't affect Bitcoin directly but it makes investors in general scared of investing in anything because they seem to treat Bitcoin as though its a tech stock cuz they still don't know what Bitcoin is), I think some other collapsed crypto firm just announced it is liquidating as well, plus NY attorney general sued Kucoin over having ETH on their platform with the NY AG claiming ETH is a security, news that the US govt sent $1 billion of Bitcoin to Coinbase causing panic they would just dump it on the open market, Biden announcing in his budget proposal for next year a ridiculous 30% tax on electricity used in Bitcoin mining which implemented would basically drive all US Bitcoin mining companies overseas, and on top of all that of course looming worry of the SEC building up to take tyrannical enforcement against crypto and crypto companies. That's a ton of things all happening at once, and most of those just happened the past few days.

Bitcoin absolutely could go lower for sure, as several of these factors are ongoing. But some will fade with the next news cycle so it also wouldn't surprise me if Bitcoin recovers a thousand dollars or two in the near future.

[OgNasty]

It feels like this is a drop in price due to global economic conditions. We seem to have reached a point where we’re going to find out if bitcoin is going to collapse with the rest of global assets, or if it’s going to soar in the face of a recession like some are hoping. I have my doubts, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed. However, I’m not sure that crossing your fingers is the best investment strategy.

[Lucius]

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.
Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.
~snip~

Hope is reborn for those waiting for $10k, and while I won't say it's impossible, I don't agree with those hoping for just that. Of course, it's easy to make statements like you make when the price has lost 20% in a very short time, because why wouldn't it lose another 20% or more?

However, although many will blame the FED and their latest statements, I would also take into account the fact that many took profit by selling at a price of around $25k, and they bought exactly when the price was the lowest. The game is always the same, buy low, sell high, and take advantage of any news, whether it's good or bad. In any case, this will be a turbulent year, but that does not mean anything bad, because those who trade will have nothing against profiting 40% or even more a few more times.

[uneng]

Instead of adapting your strategy to the FED's movements, I think it's better to just focus on the halving event. Historically it has proved to be solid, while being a sure thing. Independent of groups' decisions and manipulative measures we know it's going to happen in a fixed date, so everyone can prepare for it with equal chances, different from FED's actions which only reach to you through news' portals after the whales and insiders already had access to it in first hand, putting them in a very superior position against average investors like us.

[royalfestus]

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Your strong point and analysis to say bitcoin price drop is coming is all about inflation but I don't think that is what will happen to bitcoin only because of that. Are you saying when the inflation is high then people withdraw hodling and to take care of life? But during COVID-19 that was restrictions and low income earning, we saw gradual increase in investment and appreciation of price so inflation should not be the only reason for price drop. Bitcoin has the tradition of fall in price a year before halving.

At the moment, the news of MT. Gox is still having a significant effect on the market, and the FUD may last for some time. While the size of the bitcoin planned for release is huge, it could spread for nine months. Still, I have no doubt some people will do some accumulating again from the FUD. There is still a long period in the market before the halving when the market will break the previous ATH.

[thecodebear]

I don't think its Mt Gox causing anything, I mean that may have caused a bit of the initial bearishness at the beginning of the month but I don't see anyone talking about Mt Gox now. And didn't that get like moved back to later in the year anyway or something?

All things that happened in the past few days or past week:
- FED saying rates will raise for longer and therefore higher
- US Govt supposedly moving a billion dollars of bitcoin to coinbase
- NY AG office suing Kucoin and claiming that ETH is a security
- Silvergate officially going bust
- Voyager currently liquiditating all their crypto assets
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US


That's a lot of negative things and it all happened at once. Those are what bought Bitcoin crashing down below $20k. Silvergate was the main thing, though all these other things happening in the past couple days just compounded the Silvergate news to drop the market further. Once we're onto the next news cycle and Silvergate collapsing is old news Bitcoin should recover unless some of these other things become more serious.

[Hispo]

Instead of adapting your strategy to the FED's movements, I think it's better to just focus on the halving event. Historically it has proved to be solid, while being a sure thing. Independent of groups' decisions and manipulative measures we know it's going to happen in a fixed date, so everyone can prepare for it with equal chances, different from FED's actions which only reach to you through news' portals after the whales and insiders already had access to it in first hand, putting them in a very superior position against average investors like us.

Spot on.
The FED can do whatever they want to try to keep the USA economy from sinking. In the end, Bitcoin price is about offer and demand  and nobody escapes one of the most universal laws of economics.

Once halving comes through, it would be just matter of time before the price increases in an important amount. In the meantime, anyone should be staking sats, instead being fearful of a passing dump provoked by the reckless choices of crypto CEO's.

[yhiaali3]

Thank God, I am optimistic and my belief in Bitcoin is still strong despite all this decline, even if Bitcoin falls to 15k$ so that I will not lose my optimism, on the contrary it will be the best time to buy.

There is a lot of negative news that caused this decline, the most important of which is the issue of the Mt.gox exchange, where distribution is supposed to start today for those affected, also news that the US government sent 40,000 BTC to the Coinbase platform two days ago.

In addition, of course, to raise interest, but despite all that, as I said before, this affects the speculator, but it does not affect the investor in the long run.

[Yaunfitda]

[..snip..]
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US


That's a lot of negative things and it all happened at once. Those are what bought Bitcoin crashing down below $20k. Silvergate was the main thing, though all these other things happening in the past couple days just compounded the Silvergate news to drop the market further. Once we're onto the next news cycle and Silvergate collapsing is old news Bitcoin should recover unless some of these other things become more serious.

Most likely this is the best explanation for the sudden plunge of the price, it's a direct attack by the US government to bitcoin per se, that is a huge tax implications for bitcoin miners and it doesn't sit well with us.

Silvergate news was overshadowed already, and if I'm not mistaken, once the Silvergate news surfaces, it's not that huge drop, as we keep above $22k. But the new proposal from Biden government was the nail in the couple for us in the last 24 hours.

[Mate2237]

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be bearish or say that bitcoin is bad and you shouldn't buy it. I still think that DCA is the best tactic to choose in any circumstance. So keep buying bitcoin, it is the future of money and great technology.

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it.

The initial prediction of bitcoin price on bearish has not reached, different users with different prediction have been said here and other boards, some predicted that bitcoin will reach as low as 10$ or below. One thing I also discovered in the rapid coming down of bitcoin price more faster than when it is going up. Remember in last year the price was in 15$ for weeks before it climb up again. So reaching 15$ again is not a new thing for bitcoin legends.

The best time to invest on bitcoin now and then lower price to come. Then to come is only of the buyer is ready to be patient because the movement of the downward might be slow.

[Jating]

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be bearish or say that bitcoin is bad and you shouldn't buy it. I still think that DCA is the best tactic to choose in any circumstance. So keep buying bitcoin, it is the future of money and great technology.

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it.

The initial prediction of bitcoin price on bearish has not reached, different users with different prediction have been said here and other boards, some predicted that bitcoin will reach as low as 10$ or below. One thing I also discovered in the rapid coming down of bitcoin price more faster than when it is going up. Remember in last year the price was in 15$ for weeks before it climb up again. So reaching 15$ again is not a new thing for bitcoin legends.

The best time to invest on bitcoin now and then lower price to come. Then to come is only of the buyer is ready to be patient because the movement of the downward might be slow.

We are still much in the bearish state, so we need to take into account that the price "might" go lower or we might see another lower lows. I don't think that we need for the FED and see them pivot some data.

It's better to just invest on whatever capacity we can.

DCA or buying if you have the capital, then it's all good. And with buying anytime, you have total control of it. What I mean is that we should look in the future, in the next bull run and see how investment right now could grow overtime.

[passwordnow]

As for the inflation rate, it's decreasing but to be honest that decrease ain't that much compared to the pre-pandemic inflation rates. Well, it's just a suggestion that it's still not yet a good time to buy and that's OP's tactic before he buys again and waits for a lower price to come.
But those that have been waiting to see it again lower than $20k or within $20k itself, it's now your chance to make your moves and dca as much as you can.
Time is just so quick to pass and if you really are following the market, this correction that's happening just need to happen before we get to see something better maybe little late by the end of this year or starting next year.

[DeathAngel]

The $ price of 1BTC is currently $20,125. This is the first proper retest of support in & around $20,000.

I think if $20,000 acts as a real support then bears will retreat & we could break $25,000 & start to confirm that the bear market is over. We should know more in the next 2 weeks.

[Silberman]

As for the inflation rate, it's decreasing but to be honest that decrease ain't that much compared to the pre-pandemic inflation rates. Well, it's just a suggestion that it's still not yet a good time to buy and that's OP's tactic before he buys again and waits for a lower price to come.
But those that have been waiting to see it again lower than $20k or within $20k itself, it's now your chance to make your moves and dca as much as you can.
Time is just so quick to pass and if you really are following the market, this correction that's happening just need to happen before we get to see something better maybe little late by the end of this year or starting next year.

I hope those people wake up and take the chance that has appeared in front of them out of nowhere, there were people complaining about not being able to buy bitcoin for sub 20k prices anymore and now they have the opportunity to do it, if they do not take advantage of it they do not know when this opportunity will repeat itself, if it repeats itself at all, but despite all their complains I am sure there are many of them which will refuse to do it as they are probably waiting for the price to go even lower than its current levels.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I hope those people wake up and take the chance that has appeared in front of them out of nowhere, there were people complaining about not being able to buy bitcoin for sub 20k prices anymore and now they have the opportunity to do it, if they do not take advantage of it they do not know when this opportunity will repeat itself, if it repeats itself at all, but despite all their complains I am sure there are many of them which will refuse to do it as they are probably waiting for the price to go even lower than its current levels.

Yes, many people talk, and when they have the opportunity to buy cheap, they don't do it. I am taking the opportunity to accumulate at the moment. I don't care if it goes down a little more and as I have said in other speculation threads, I don't expect big rises for 2023, although I would expect that by the end of the year we will close with a higher price than in 2022, which is not difficult, but until then there is a lot of volatility ahead of us, especially as things are in general in the economy.

I don't look at what will happen to the price in the next few months, but over the next few years, and what I see happening is that we will look back and see that 20,000 was a very cheap price. So the best thing to do is to accumulate at these levels.