What comes next for Bitcoin: $17K or $23K?

[dragonvslinux]

With price now back at $20K after rejection from $25K, what comes next for Bitcoin: $23K resistance level or $17K support level?



Based on volume profile, most of the volume has been traded between $19K and $20.5K with some selling pressure around $23K and volume point of control around $17K.

The bullish: The 200 Day MA is neutral (flat) at $19.7K after "golden cross" with 50 Day MA in January. The 20 Week MA is bullish (rising) at similar price.

The bearish: The 50 Week MA at $23.5K is trending downwards after weekly "death cross" that rejected price. Next week it will be at $23K.



Personally I'm leaning towards re-testing $23K over $17K, as long as $19K level (200 Day MA, 20 Week MA and high volume area) can hold as new support.

Previous topic & poll: What comes next for Bitcoin: $20K or $30K?

[NeuroticFish]

I think that it's good that you've closed the other topic. People seem to have forgotten the bullish sentiment of the time the other topic was created and now where posting like "I cannot understand how could people choose so badly"  .
Well, if one has invested into bitcoin, no matter if big or small, he expects it to go up, not down..
Oh well.. the bears have spoiled the fun for March, but I still hope that the month will not end in this (or bigger) red zone, although it may depend greatly whether other banks/institutions will follow Silicon Valley Bank into the pit.

[Eternad]

Most likely it will retest the bottom again since this dump is incorporated by a big bad news. I don’t want to ignore the chance of having a relief rally but the current FUD is so strong for the bulls to have enough buy power to drive the price back at 23k. We are already on the start of the March which means there’s a possibility to test to the bottom again before we see another good run.

16K to 17K is what I’m predicting if this crazy news about bank collapsing continue.

[Nrcewker]

It is really sad to see that after a struggling February, Bitcoins have fell back to 20k usd price range. I mean many had great expectations from Bitcoins in the month of March, but seeing this sudden price drop, has really affected the Bitcoin users a lot. I guess Bitcoins will go down more till 18k usd and then will bounce back stronger. Moreover we should also take this positively, as we have now the chance to buy these valuable Bitcoins at very low price, so without wasting more time, if we buy some coins now and hold it, then definitely we will make great profits in the future. Just we need to be more patient and wait for the miracle.

[hugeblack]

The bearish: The 50 Week MA at $23.5K is trending downwards after weekly "death cross" that rejected price. Next week it will be at $23K.

Have you calculated what is happening chaos because of SVB? Or was the participation before taking this into account, if so, then updating is necessary.
Personally, after USDC/DAI broke its peg, I hope that there will be no panic in the market and that we will continue above the $19.7K level, which seems the most likely option so far, but we need about two or three days to know how things will go until the end of the month.

[dragonvslinux]

The bearish: The 50 Week MA at $23.5K is trending downwards after weekly "death cross" that rejected price. Next week it will be at $23K.

Have you calculated what is happening chaos because of SVB? Or was the participation before taking this into account, if so, then updating is necessary.

No, as I wouldn't consider this bullish/bearish price action wise. More like sentiment/news based information, that could indirectly result in a bullish or bearish scenario, depending on whether price is bullish/bearish.

Personally, after USDC/DAI broke its peg, I hope that there will be no panic in the market and that we will continue above the $19.7K level, which seems the most likely option so far, but we need about two or three days to know how things will go until the end of the month.

Remember in October 2018 when USDT significantly broke it's peg, and price pumped by around 15%? For reference I don't see this like UST de-peg, as in that scenario it was considerably backed by Bitcoin, so caused a sell-off when BTC reserves were dumped. USDC isn't backed by Bitcoin. Even DAI only have a small percentage backed by Bitcoin, it's mainly USDC. It's relatively detached it seems.

So far today price is up/down nothing%, so I really don't see the SVB/USDC situation being that relevant at all (at least not yet). I'd be more concerned about Silvergate dumping holdings over liquidation personally, that would be genuine selling pressure. To me, since yesterday, price has been relatively neutral. Today, since USDC news, price has been relatively neutral. What's there to update??

But sure, we can always claim that the SVB is bearish for Bitcoin when price is so far completely unaffected by news. Then if price drops in the coming days, we can blame it on SVB  

In other news, Coinbase claim they will re-commence 1:1 USDC:USD conversations on Monday. So personally I'm only expecting weekend noise until then.
They run out of liquidity with the panic selling it seems, but will use one of their 5 other banks once they are open again.

[Ben Barubal]

It is really sad to see that after a struggling February, Bitcoins have fell back to 20k usd price range. I mean many had great expectations from Bitcoins in the month of March, but seeing this sudden price drop, has really affected the Bitcoin users a lot. I guess Bitcoins will go down more till 18k usd and then will bounce back stronger. Moreover we should also take this positively, as we have now the chance to buy these valuable Bitcoins at very low price, so without wasting more time, if we buy some coins now and hold it, then definitely we will make great profits in the future. Just we need to be more patient and wait for the miracle.

      I'm not shocked by what's happening in the market right now, it's simple if it drops unexpectedly again there's no problem, instead it's an opportunity for us to buy again and hold it until the bull run returns.

     An opportunity like this is an opportunity that can be considered to be true, we should not worry or be afraid of it, the value of bitcoin has
nowhere else to go besides decreasing its value but raising its value again in the market.

[jossiel]

     An opportunity like this is an opportunity that can be considered to be true, we should not worry or be afraid of it, the value of bitcoin has
nowhere else to go besides decreasing its value but raising its value again in the market.

Us, long term people don't really worry with this. What's worrying is that when we're in a situation that we can't take advantage of such positions and opportunities of some personal reasons that we're unable to do.

I'm moving forward that whether it tests back to its support, that's totally fine. Am I the only one who thinks that every great bull run that does come requires some disaster or collapses just as what we've seen in the past?

As we talk about the cycle, with the past bull runs that I've seen that seems to be the thing.

[Cryptomiles1]

From the second screenshot charts I noticed is in a week chart meaning the candle have not yet closed for week, meaning before it closes we could experienced more dip but however, this is a very best moment traders or investors utilizes their chances of acquiring more volume of bitcoin.

[BitcoinPanther]

It was announced that Mt. Gox Bitcoin release is moved to April.  It is supposed to be released this March but for some reasons it was moved in April.  With the current news of USDC issue, the SVB collapsing, and the upcoming release of MT. Gox BTC, it is quite hard to think BTC moving up to $23k but I do not think that the price will collapse below $18k touching $17k.  So I speculate that BTC will go sideway with the possibility to touch sub $19k  when the sell pressure of the MT. Gox release comes around.

[bestcoins1]

      I'm not shocked by what's happening in the market right now, it's simple if it drops unexpectedly again there's no problem, instead it's an opportunity for us to buy again and hold it until the bull run returns.

If you see a dip as an opportunity to buy again for extra money, I have to say that's good for you too. Because those who don't have the extra money to buy back at the time this decline occurs while they are still holding what they bought earlier because they don't want to sell at a low price are the audience waiting for a high price for Bitcoin in the market.

     An opportunity like this is an opportunity that can be considered to be true, we should not worry or be afraid of it, the value of bitcoin has
nowhere else to go besides decreasing its value but raising its value again in the market.

Actually, some people are obviously not worried about this because they still believe in Bitcoin and also still believe that Bitcoin can increase again in the future. But those who aren't panicking and aren't worried also need to increase their patience in waiting and waiting for better prices in Bitcoin. So that they will definitely feel boredom before seeing the best price in the market for Bitcoin.

[STT]

Should be harder to go to 17k then just retrace our recent movements back to 23k.   It could be a hard check and we head down sharply from 23k but still if resistance and selling is strong then we need to check that.  
  My rough take for direction would be we orbit around measures such as the 200 day and 200 week.  These carry the majority of inertia in the route they take, with no buying it would still lead down but not directly.

[mv1986]

Should be harder to go to 17k then just retrace our recent movements back to 23k.   It could be a hard check and we head down sharply from 23k but still if resistance and selling is strong then we need to check that.  
  My rough take for direction would be we orbit around measures such as the 200 day and 200 week.  These carry the majority of inertia in the route they take, with no buying it would still lead down but not directly.

Would say so as well as we now just got through a wave of bad news and uncertainties. Silvergate getting liquidated was the big elephant in the room for a while. Now that it is a fact people already priced it in. For Bitcoin to go to 17k it would need seriously bad news in terms of regulation or another big exchange collapsing.

Even the bad regulation part shouldn't get any worse in the near future as Biden bashed Bitcoin with his last proposal already in terms of taxation and its influence on trading strategies.

[dragonvslinux]

The bearish: The 50 Week MA at $23.5K is trending downwards after weekly "death cross" that rejected price. Next week it will be at $23K.

Have you calculated what is happening chaos because of SVB? Or was the participation before taking this into account, if so, then updating is necessary.

But sure, we can always claim that the SVB is bearish for Bitcoin when price is so far completely unaffected by news. Then if price drops in the coming days, we can blame it on SVB  

Now that price has pumped by more than 10% to the upside since the SVB/USDC situation, do we now speculative that this is bullish for Bitcoin, rather than bearish? Personally I'd simply say that price bounced from 200 Day MA & volume support, as well as long-term resistance downtrend turned support again. Maybe price has bounced back stronger/quicker, but the bounce was very likely regardless of SVB meltdown.

Should be harder to go to 17k then just retrace our recent movements back to 23k.

This is basically the bottom line. Breaking significantly below $20K wasn't going to be an easy task for the bears, as it's been a 9-month long accumulation zone, even after failing late last year. Whereas re-testing $23K new local distribution zone is the expected bounce back level, even if it is a dead cat bounce before lower lows. Notably it's also the 0.618 fib retracement, as well as local volume point of control.

[fzkto]

Hello, mate! I'm afraid 23k just happened and bitcoin is not going to stop at that mark. Anyway, it seems to me that 17k, if there is one, is not going to happen anytime soon. Right now it looks more like the market has turned around after almost two years of decline. Therefore, it is better to follow the trend and not to think about a new bottom.

[dragonvslinux]

Hello, mate! I'm afraid 23k just happened and bitcoin is not going to stop at that mark.

Thanks for notifying me, had forgotten the poll was $17K vs $23K. Have locked poll and will lock topic now. Will create another poll topic soon, so anyone wanting to respond to anything in here still can do so in new topic.

(Also not convinced it's going to stop at $23K either, looks like $25K will be up next very soon at this rate)