@bitmover A few days ago, on another forum, we discussed gold as an investment. Without going into details or conclusions, one user proposed a very similar strategy in gold investment, to the one you and JayJuanGee did.
What do you think about the proposal to do a similar tool for gold, and the possibility of comparing this type of investment in two very "similar" assets, Bitcoin and gold?
I doubt that this particular tool parameters works with gold, yet surely someone who might be an "expert" in gold might strive to make some kind of a similar comparison to gold, yet my own attempt to apply the 200-WMA to bitcoin and to tailorize these kinds of tools around such 200-WMA (bottom as a proximation) seems to have a wee bit of unique application to bitcoin's so far existence... and yeah, who knows for sure my ways of framing are going to continue to work, including that currently there are some folks who challenge the applicability of my ways of thinking about bitcoin to strive to frame (or emphasize) bitcoin prices to the 200-WMA (with an emphasis on valuating based on the 200-WMA).
Even when bitmover and I were discussing the projection tool (the similator) that is at the bottom of the tool, I recall that I was arguing a bit against such an additional portion of the tool and considering that it was not really going to add much or any value in terms of giving more information, yet that portion of the tool frequently helps in back tracing how past projections (and even the application of sustainable withdrawal frameworks) would have had ended up playing out based on various past dates and past amounts and yeah it is a bit tricky to use, even though quite a bit of valuable information can be gotten from using that portion of the tool (from my perspective, and experience).
@bitmover A few days ago, on another forum, we discussed gold as an investment. Without going into details or conclusions, one user proposed a very similar strategy in gold investment, to the one you and JayJuanGee did.
What do you think about the proposal to do a similar tool for gold, and the possibility of comparing this type of investment in two very "similar" assets, Bitcoin and gold?
I never thought about adding the same technical analysis to gold.
I just applied the 200 WMA to gold chart, since 1996 (30years)
Gold cycles are much longer (~10y bear markets)... And they do have a strong indicatior when the 200WMA crosses the price.
I just became a bit worried about my position. I wouldn't want to hold this bag for 10 years
But I still think it can go a bit further.
According to JJG strategy, it is time to make a more aggressive sell with some advanced months.
Of course in the 2.5-ish years since you (bitmover) and I had been working on the tool and brain storming how to attempt to tweak withdrawal amounts based on how BTC prices might relate to the 200-WMA, there have been ongoing questions regarding the extent to which we might be able to extrapolate past cycles into future guidance in regards to how aggressive to authorize withdrawal levels at various points when the BTC price exceeds the 200-WMA as compared with various points to lessen the withdrawal authorization amounts based on the BTC price being less than 25% above the 200-WMA or even currently when the BTC price is barely above the 200-WMA (and the various staggering of the lessening of the withdrawal authorizations if BTC prices were to continue to reach even lower levels below the 200-WMA).
So then part of the ongoing questions have been relating to how extreme the BTC price had gotten relative to the 200-WMA at historical points in time and whether or not it might be realistic to attempt to design and/or guide based on those historical numbers in regards to trying to be realistic about how future numbers might play out.
Of course, on the opposite of the spectrum, to the extent that BTC prices might get back to 25% above the 200-WMA and at various higher price points above the 200-WMA, such as 2x, 6.5x, 14x and some other possible outcomes, then various higher withdrawal authorizations would end up falling within the tools guidances and even considering the extent that those guidances are within the realm of realistic merely because they had happened in the past.
In some sense, I am not exactly sure what you mean when you say "it is time" for "more aggression," since right now, in accordance with the tool guidances, these are currently times to be more whimpy in our withdrawal targets (authorizations) and to tone down our withdrawal levels to the extent that any guys may well be trying to stay in line with the guidances of the parameters (and thinking) within the tool (which of course relate to my ongoing attempts to frame the withdrawal authorization levels) rather than some guys might be coming up with their own withdrawal parameters that surely may well end up deviating quite a bit from my own suggestions within the tool, even though the tool does not stop any guys from coming up with their own guidances and guidelines regarding what they might consider to be their version of time-based sustained withdrawal levels.
Maybe even some other assets could be added to the tool. Gold, Sp500?
Sure, some of the ideas of the tool could still be applied to other assets, such as Gold, Sp500 or even other assets, yet there is a bit of specialization of the ideas of this particular tool being framed specifically around bitcoin, so surely other presumptions would have to apply to any other assets in which such a tool might be designed around them, and personally, I hardly have any interest in getting distracted into shitcoins, inferior assets (or other non-bticoin assets) even though some of the underlying ideas of the tool (of relying valuations upon moving averages rather than spot prices) still could be applied to show how those other assets suck as compared with bitcoin.. but didn't we already know that?
Sure, some folks still have not figured out the greatness of bitcoin as compared with other assets, which might be part of the motivation to spend time, energy and value focusing on such inferior other assets.... hahahahahaha and part of the reason that higher sustainable withdrawal rates work (and more likely to continue to work) for bitcoin and don't seem too likely to work so well (sustainably) with various other non-bitcoin assets, which is why the traditional 4% sustainable withdrawal rules (guidelines) tend to apply to other assets (and traditional asset evaluation circles), and bitcoin likely can (arguably?) sustain something like a 10% withdrawal rate when bitcoin's valuations are guided by the 200-WMA rather than by BTC spot prices... which surely is part of the angle that I tend to be ongoingly arguing in terms of trying to get guys to not get so distracted by BTC spot prices and to try to stay focused on valuations of bitcoin holdings around the 200-WMA (which is ongoingly easier said than done.. and I have been ongoingly trying to practice these principles of valuating around the 200-WMA myself.. which sometimes I am having to shake myself into such framework and reframing of the bitcoin valuation's matter).
I just became a bit worried about my position. I wouldn't want to hold this bag for 10 years
But I still think it can go a bit further.
According to JJG strategy, it is time to make a more aggressive sell with some advanced months.
Maybe even some other assets could be added to the tool. Gold, Sp500?
I often saw doubts and discussions about which instrument is better for investment, Bitcoin or Gold. Maybe this kind of comparison tool could help in this dilemma.
For example, I still have doubts whether long-term holding of these two assets can be considered as passive income. This JJG strategy is perhaps the closest to that.
I have been largely stealing from traditional sustainable withdrawal guidelines (theories), so in some sense, whatever I have been adding to the discussions around the use of the 200-WMA in bitcoin has not really been anything new, and likely even bitmover could attest that in the beginning of our attempting to figure out some of the defaults on the tool, I was gravitating towards having a starting point of a 6% sustainable withdrawal recommendation, even though we both acknowledged that traditional sustainable withdrawal theories tended to gravitate towards 4% annual withdrawal rates, yet especially when bitmover designed the back-testing portion (the similator) of the tool at the bottom, we had a bit of argumentation and even amazement (or maybe it was disbelief?) that even if we maximize the tool at at 30%, there were so many times that the back-tested bitcoin withdrawal rates still had a decent amounts of tendencies towards sustainability within them).
Sometimes many of us might not even completely know how to think about passive income, except maybe if we have some agent who takes care of an overwhelming majority of our finances (and accounting) and we just sit back and receive our money each quarter (or month - or whatever might be are payment time-period), yet surely it seems quite likely to me that if guys have enough bitcoin (beyond the amount of their target annual sustainable withdrawal rate), and they are withdrawing at a rate that is relatively low (including lower than my own advised 10% based on the 200-WMA), there could surely be quite a bit of set it and forget it within bitcoin and within making sure that the cushion is retained and not dwindling with the passage of time, yet ongoingly there are likely questions about how much bitcoin is enough and then wanting to make sure that the bitcoin dollar value is ongoingly growing faster than the annual dollar amounts in which it is being withdrawn from the bitcoin holdings, and surely it seems to me that the 200-WMA gives way more guidance about the setting of a sustainable withdrawal rates rather than potentially relying upon a bouncing all over the place bitcoin spot price and trying to figure out how to guess about withdrawal rate when BTC spot prices have been and likely to continue to move around so much on and ongoing basis.. and surely, so far in bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has not failed to continue to ongoingly and persistently go up, even in periods that the BTC price has languished at or even below the 200-WMA for fairly extended periods of time (like for the 16-ish months that we saw between June 2022 and October 2023).
