Everything is cyclical and repetitive. Bitcoin is no exception

[jayce]

It needs more than just knowledge to have this kind of ability. It also involves intuition, demography, some lucks, and of course experience. The person I have in mind when discussing about this is Elon. While people consider it's a big mistake for him to buy Twitter, his other companies Tesla and SpaceX are blowing our mind, especially the latter, which with SpaceX rockets, now it's possible to reuse same rockets to the space and even now he is figuring out to make a colony in Mars.

So talking about bitcoin, of course anyone could be expert on it. We were newbies and knew nothing about bitcoin, now we are here and we can talk much about it. For sure, if you invest more time to learn it, study the market, do trial error, and even experience losses, you could predict the future of bitcoin. E.g. bitcoin dropped a lot couple times, but we are still here, because we have learnt that bitcoin price would be bounced back.

[1714467589]

1714467589

[1714467589]

1714467589

[Adbitco]

The historical data may not be the same as the previous but must either has same occurrences, we can't deny the fact that history or past event of bitcoin still works on the investment side. What i am trying to say is that you might fall while doing that, the best options as an investor is to go for long time investment with this at least you must meet the bull run whereby may actually make go return from the investment. While those active in trading can get more involved with scalping maybe some of you calls it DCA.

In all, the historical data gives us more guideline and stability to be able to withstand the pressure of market and all forms of price manipulation.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

In as much I share in your opinion @op, I think other matters of life is quite different from the market, bitcoin and entire cryptocurrency market in particular.
By cyclical, you mean that bitcoin is only repeating what it has done before, well, to some extent, you are right, but to a larger extent, you are wrong, wrong because bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is still very young, bitcoin's all time high in 2011 is not the same as its all time high in 2017, and 2017 all time high is not the same as 2021 all time high, and if you still ask me, I will say that I am very sure that 2024 all time high will be very different from 2021 all time high, and for what the all time high price will be in 2024, no body knows for sure at the moment - so this is clearly not cyclical at the moment.

But then, maybe bitcoin will become cyclical when eventually, it reaches an all time high price it can not break above from anymore, that is, when it reaches that price or close to it, it falls back, then repeat, and repeat again.
This is when we can indeed conclude that bitcoin have started cycling around prices it has seen before.

[BitcoinPanther]

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Everything indeed is cyclical, even the lives of people are cyclical (in some religious view, such as Ecclesiastes 3:20 where it stated : "All go to the same place; all come from dust, and to dust all return".).   In terms of finance and investment, what matters is to know this cyclic pattern so that we can take advantage of the ups and downs of every market.  

So yeah, I agree that applying this kind of knowledge to Bitcoin will give us an advantage on the market since we will know something that others don't know and be able to buy and sell at the right time.

[hatshepsut93]

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

Price history is not the full market data. There a ton of other factors, like if you take Bitcoin - you need to consider adoption levels, hashrate, legal status in multiple countries, exchange ecosystem, and a lot of other things that may influence the price. You can't predict the price just by looking at the chart alone. The market is not a system driven by single law, like a physical pendulum, it's a combination of many factors.

And history is not cyclical. You can find examples when similar events happen under similar conditions, but you can also find examples of the opposite.

[Oilacris]

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

There's a point but we know that this do work on different field.It isnt something that we could just apply it out that in investing considering those inventions and theories that had been mold up
isnt something that correlates on what we are doing now.It isnt really just applicable since there would be no study nor verification that had been done and since this is investment
then it has nothing to do with those things.

Therefore, its better not to boggle up yourself about those theories because it couldnt work no matter how hard you do try.There's no way for us to know the future
that lies ahead.

[Lucius]

Satoshi never expected Bitcoin to be adopted by governments, but the citizens who would use it to escape the fiat financial trap the government put them into.

Yes, it seems that was his idea, but we still have the problem that most people have a negative attitude towards Bitcoin because it is the attitude of their government. With some exceptions like El Salvador, it is not realistic to expect the government of some economically stable and rich country to suggest its residents to start using Bitcoin. It is enough to read what the SEC, the Bank of England or the European Central Bank think about Bitcoin to understand that such a concept is simply unacceptable to them.

[siniminomorocomunisakito]

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

When you understand why a market behaves in a certain way and the lessons it has taught us in the past, you can make better-informed decisions. Similarly, individuals who thoroughly study a field can develop the ability to predict the future. This is evident in the work of great minds like Tesla and Leonardo da Vinci. Therefore, it makes sense to apply this approach to investing, including in virtual currencies, to increase the likelihood of success.

This means that successful investing also requires agility and adaptability in response to changing market conditions.

[BVeyron]

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

The overall market process is the process of bubbles forming and bursting. I suppose there will surely be some fluctuations of crypto price, but now there is also a high risk of inflation of the worlds main fiats. So one of the main problem is to establish non-fluctuating value measurement scale (or at least not heavily fluctuating). Currency (USD, other fiats, BTC, alts, whatever) is not a reliable value measurement scale.

[Smartvirus]

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Its the reason why we've got historical records or data. Its the only thing you've got, to give you a glimpse of what to expect when you see certain patterns. History is useful that way and those who are able to merge that with the present day events have some huge advantage.
The bitcoin market has been season to come in two seasons (the bears and the bulls) and also, its got another circle about the halving.  Without being able to predict in exact when the bulls will operate, many people have associated the bull market to follow up the halving. This hasbeen true many times and we as well have the bears to come in there after. It's a repeated event.

[jrrsparkles]

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

The overall market process is the process of bubbles forming and bursting. I suppose there will surely be some fluctuations of crypto price, but now there is also a high risk of inflation of the worlds main fiats. So one of the main problem is to establish non-fluctuating value measurement scale (or at least not heavily fluctuating). Currency (USD, other fiats, BTC, alts, whatever) is not a reliable value measurement scale.

1 BTC = 1 BTC, so we used the fiat to know the value of Bitcoin per unit since we use the fiat on daily basis to buy anything we wanted. The actual value of an asset based on its demand and supply so if we need to calculate the value we can use anything that has stable value against it but it won't be convenient like using fiat. By the way I feel using the fiat is good because then we know how much we are being robbed by printing those paper every year and inject it into the economy.

[Blitzboy]

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Its the reason why we've got historical records or data. Its the only thing you've got, to give you a glimpse of what to expect when you see certain patterns. History is useful that way and those who are able to merge that with the present day events have some huge advantage.
The bitcoin market has been season to come in two seasons (the bears and the bulls) and also, its got another circle about the halving.  Without being able to predict in exact when the bulls will operate, many people have associated the bull market to follow up the halving. This hasbeen true many times and we as well have the bears to come in there after. It's a repeated event.

History indeed steers us through tomorrow's labyrinth. But, each historical beacon doesnt guarantee success. Visionaries like Da Vinci, Tesla didnt predict - they sculpted the future. For Bitcoin, recurring patterns - halvings, bulls, bears - are observed. But like fickle nature, Bitcoin too swings. A severe winter can succeed a gentle autumn; a harsh crash can follow a halving. This is crypto's mutable climate. While historical facts are a navigation tool, theyre no fortune teller. Profiting in Bitcoin necessitates mastering its underpinnings, market tides, and economic factors. A judicious investor realizes patterns can shatter as swiftly as they shape.

[KiaKia]

The 2015 crypto market performance is different from the 2021 market performance, I believe we shouldn't judge the future with the past, anything can still happen, today is certain but not tomorrow, many people lost their lives to Covid 19, they never knew that 2020 would be their last.

As Bitcoin is the best one in this space, I will still recommend risking what you can only afford to lose, and also try to lower your expectations, because if Bitcoin loses strength in the future you can easily give up because you expected way too much.

[Ico.best]

Hmm interesting, maybe someone is somehow smart enough to predict where the market will go, when to buy and sell.

But it is also not certain that these people are always right! I guess it's also wrong sometimes, and it also doesn't seem like a simple skill you can get.

While there are some iterations and one can be fairly certain that there will be ups and downs, for example, there is a Bitcoin bull market every 3-5 years or so, it is much more difficult to know when a low will be reached or when the price will start moving significantly. So it's not just cycles and learning from history, but maybe something like talent.

Like some can be great artists and singers, but also many can't. I know I'm fine with relatively safe long-term investments, but I'm not very good at trading. So, I immediately stopped getting involved in it as soon as I realized I wasn't good at it, wasn't sure I would ever be good at it, and wasn't willing to invest my time and effort trying and figuring it out.

[Mpamaegbu]

The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well

This is apt. For those who assume that history wouldn't continue to repeat itself on Bitcoin will have a hard time making money off it. For me, the full circle is the ups and downs that cumulate in ATH every four years. I saw it in 2017, 2021 and I'm expecting another in 2025. The beauty of the whole thing is that each preceding ATH is always better than the last.

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

However he was said about volume, not the price.

Certainly, even Satoshi never envisaged that Bitcoin would be treated as an asset. He merely looked at it as a payment option and that was why he talked about volume. Today, the greatest advantage of Bitcoin which has helped advance it is its price, not volume. Many of us got hooked on it because of how price moved and then decided to make further research on it. I never thought of Bitcoin as a means of payment the first time I heard of it on radio. The radio crusaders on that day only talked about its value appreciation as an investment.

[Dave1]

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

I'm pretty sure that those who become rich investors didn't ignore historical data. In fact they look at it and that's why we have what we call technical analysis which base everything on it's previous history and then plot in and try to see where it will go in the future.

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

It's being applied already, and that is why there are many predictions. But it doesn't mean though that it is an exact science. Most likely those analysis is going to be a hit or miss. Just like what one famous prediction model which was almost perfect, but it just failed when it says that the last bull run, we are going to see at least 6 digit tops.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
 ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

It's because in investments, there's always a risk and you can't guarantee that's why a lot of people are saying that you can start small, diversify your portfolio, and be patient, and some also advice that invest for the long term.
Even Bitcoin comes with a lot of risks, no one knows what will happen to Bitcoin before, some became lucky and some with patience are rewarded.

[tranthidung]

It's because in investments, there's always a risk and you can't guarantee that's why a lot of people are saying that you can start small, diversify your portfolio, and be patient, and some also advice that invest for the long term.
Even Bitcoin comes with a lot of risks, no one knows what will happen to Bitcoin before, some became lucky and some with patience are rewarded.

Diversify your capital into different assets which should be old safe heaven assets like Gold, Silver and new assets with potential for big growth like Bitcoin.

Because we are in a cryptocurrency market, many people will put altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) into their radars but altcoins have younger ages than Bitcoin. Altcoins have yet been tested enough by the market especially bear markets. If an investor invests in altcoins, he will have bigger risk than invest into Bitcoin, Gold, Silver.

It can be called as capital diversification too but in a risky way.

• Dead Coins: How Many Cryptocurrencies have Failed?