How often does mempool get manipulated with transactions.

[Cyber_warrior]

Some days ago, I tried to send bitcoin from my wallet to another wallet, I used the recommended sats blue wallet suggested but I was surprised my transaction didn't verify and when I check the mempool, the fee was around that range but all of a sudden it began to rise and my transactions was stuck for hours before dropping.

My question is.
1. Does mempool get manipulated by people who do large transaction and pay high fees to get ahead of lower fees?
2. Does Mempool get manipulated if you own a node or a mining pool?

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[Charles-Tim]

Just know that the mempool congestion can increase at anytime, just as a result of more people making more transaction.

1. Does mempool get manipulated by people who do large transaction and pay high fees to get ahead of lower fees?

No. But the people with high fee will first be considered and their transactions will be included into block first before others, that is how the mempool works.

2. Does Mempool get manipulated if you own a node or a mining pool?

No, because we can not call it manipulation. But if you have a mining pool, you can even include any transaction that you like. If your pool mine a block all the transaction you included in your candidate block would be confirmed, and you can include any transaction that you like, regardless of the fee.

[NeuroticFish]

1. Does mempool get manipulated by people who do large transaction and pay high fees to get ahead of lower fees?
2. Does Mempool get manipulated if you own a node or a mining pool?

Each and every node has its own mempool. This being said, your questions don't have much substance; plus you've described a normal behavior as manipulation: I call that misunderstanding from your part.

There's one case we could say "mempool is manipulated" and that is when mining pools decide to include transactions they would normally not include on a per-fee based "race" (transactions they accelerate for free or for a fee or simply their own transactions when they pay the miners participating in the pool).

Paying higher fee is the normal way to ensure transactions get taken earlier by the miners. That's not a manipulation. Miners are businesses that work for money, hence this is by design.

[Stalker22]

My question is.
1. Does mempool get manipulated by people who do large transaction and pay high fees to get ahead of lower fees?
2. Does Mempool get manipulated if you own a node or a mining pool?

The term "manipulation" can imply a negative or unethical action, but in the context of the Bitcoin network, paying higher fees to get a transaction confirmed faster is a normal operation of the system. It is a mechanism for users to incentivize miners to prioritize their transactions over others, and it is a fundamental aspect of how the Bitcoin network works.
Based on the information provided by mempool.space, the current low priority transaction fee is approximately 10-12 sat/vB. This equates to an average cost of around $0.50 for a native segwit transaction, and it is expected to be confirmed within the next few blocks. Do you consider this cost to be too high?

Regarding your second question, owning a node or a mining pool does not necessarily give someone the ability to manipulate the mempool. However, miners do have the ability to prioritize transactions based on the fees they offer, so they can potentially influence which transactions get confirmed faster. However, it is important to note that miners are incentivized to include transactions with higher fees, as they receive those fees as part of their block rewards.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

I wouldn't call it manipulation. The Bitcoin network is used by so many people, and including transactions into the next block is entirely based on how high the fee rate of the transaction was.

So it's natural that some people who want the transaction to get confirmed as soon as possible end up paying a higher fee rate. that's not manipulation.

Before broadcasting a transaction, always check the mempool using mempool explorers like mempool.space to get clear fee estimated. Don't blindly trust wallet software programs.

This is an old post and Bitmex isn't as popular as it used to be, but it can help you understand why priority transaction fee rates suddenly spike at times

These are other factors to consider; This only applies from personal wallet to personal wallet trnansactions

1. Day of the week:
Week days are considered to be the busiest for the Bitcoin network which implies high numbers of unconfirmed transactions in the mempool. The transaction activity tends to slow down during weekends which also translates to lower transaction fee rates that can easily be confirmed once the mempool clears
- Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC

2. Time of the day
Bitcoin fees tend to spike at certain hours during the day. Do on't want to send you transactions during those time of the day especially if you are planning to use a lower fee rate and need quicker confirmations.

For example  always send out your transaction every day some hours before 13:00 UTC, when bitmex broadcasts a batch withdrawal of thousands of transaction with relatively high transactions fees which flood the mempool for a few hours affecting how long other transactions with lower fees are going to be confirmed


https://b10c.me/mempool-observations/2-bitmex-broadcast-13-utc/

[Husires]

If we take this chart, which shows the fees for the last 6 months, the source is from here https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,6m,fee

We will notice that changes in fees, even at their peak, did not occur between one block and another (assuming that the average is 10 minutes), but rather it took several hours during the day.
In other words, if you send your transaction to be confirmed within the next 5 blocks and the fees are appropriate (when you sent), even if there is a traffic jam, the probability that your transactions will be confirmed within the next 3 hours is great.

Some days ago, I tried to send bitcoin from my wallet to another wallet, I used the recommended sats blue wallet suggested but I was surprised my transaction didn't verify and when I check the mempool, the fee was around that range but all of a sudden it began to rise and my transactions was stuck for hours before dropping.

If this pattern is repeated, there are two possibilities, either you do not know how to set the fees in that wallet or you have modified the settings. Use https://mempool.space/ to control your fees and know that the appropriate fees are estimated, so if you are in a hurry, send higher than the estimated fees. for now send more it with more than 32 sat/vB and will be confirmed within 1 Hour.

[LoyceV]

if you are in a hurry, send higher than the estimated fees. for now send more it with more than 32 sat/vB and will be confirmed within 1 Hour.

At current mempool, I'd expect 5.1 sat/vbyte to have a high chance of being confirmed within a few blocks. OP may want to read my topic about consolidating inputs and using low fees, it's a bit of an "art" to pay as little as possible while still getting a confirmation. Yesterday, for instance, I paid less than what Bitcoin Core recommended to be confirmed within 4 hours, and my transaction got confirmed quickly.
It's also important to realize "recommended fees" are based on the past while they "predict" the future. It's basically just an extrapolation of known data. At any moment, mempool can grow faster than expected, leaving your transaction unconfirmed. If that happens, you can (depending on your transaction) use RBF or CPFP and pay a higher fee. But in most cases, that's not necessary if you picked the right fee.

[o_e_l_e_o]

If we take this chart, which shows the fees for the last 6 months, the source is from here https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,6m,fee

I would point out that you really want to be using the graph which displays transactions by weight, not by fee. The fee chart you have chosen vastly distorts things to show very small amounts at low fees and much higher amounts at high fees. If you have 100,000 vbytes of transaction data paying 1 sat/vbyte, then it will show a bar of 100,000 sats in height. If you also have only 10,000 vbytes of transaction data paying 50 sats/vbyte, then that bar will be 500,000 sats in size. So the bar at the higher fee rate will be 5 times bigger despite there actually being only 10% of the data.

So yeah, in the bar at the top on the right hand side, make sure you click on "weight" rather than on "fee" to get a far more accurate representation of the mempool, remembering that each block will remove up to 1 MvB from the top.


Given how easy it is to make an RBF transaction, and it is only going to get easier with full RBF spreading through the network, then there really is no reason to ever have a stuck transaction anymore.

[pooya87]

I want to point out that fee spikes is not always "manipulation" but it can be although it is commonly referred to as "spam attacks" which is where the malicious entities keep creating large numbers of transactions and keep injecting them into the mempool hence inflating the fee rate.

In normal times the fees go up when there is normal increase in number of transactions because of a normal event. Like when the price makes a big move (a big rise or a big drop) and many people move their coins to and from exchanges by making an on-chain transaction.
These "normal" events resolve easily as the cause disappears (eg. in case of price spike when the rise or drops slows the mempool starts clearing too). But in an attack, they can last much longer and their effects are more severe. Like most of 2017 where price kept rising hence increased the natural number of transactions while spammers kept spamming the mempool with tens thousands of spam tx per day.

BTW the situation with the fees and the mempool these days is not normal. There is a new form of attack going on!

[un_rank]

I want to point out that fee spikes is not always "manipulation" but it can be although it is commonly referred to as "spam attacks" which is where the malicious entities keep creating large numbers of transactions and keep injecting them into the mempool hence inflating the fee rate.

This would require the malicious entity sending transactions back and forth between their wallets, this would be costing them transaction fees to keep up with the large number of transactions and also reducing their privacy by exposing their different addresses.

What is the end goal of this?
All I can think of is that they are miners and clog the network to push up fees which would be paid to them. But that is a huge risk to take with no assurance to get the next block.
Could it just be anti-bitcoin organizations who just want to slow up the network? This would have little effect and the network would clear up in no time too.

- Jay -

[LoyceV]

This would require the malicious entity sending transactions back and forth between their wallets, this would be costing them transaction fees to keep up with the large number of transactions and also reducing their privacy by exposing their different addresses.

What is the end goal of this?

We've seen "dust attacks" in the past, in which many funded Bitcoin addresses received the minimum amount that can be sent. It could have been meant for tracking (see if the input is used together with another address) or maybe just a spammer hoping to receive a donation. My money is on the first option though.