⚽ Conmebol Libertadores 2023 - Prediction and Discussion Thread

[rdluffy]

Hey guys, Libertadores of America will start today (third stage/group stage)



This year's champion will have a guaranteed place in the 2023 FIFA Club World Cup, and also in the new World Cup format that will be played in 2025.
The bets are already active at the bookmakers.
This is a very difficult championship to predict the games, it has many surprises, games in high altitude places, teams with a lot of passion, etc.

Do you already have a guess for this year's champion?
Do you follow the matches?
For those who do not watch, I recommend watching at least from the round of 16 on, I will try to post the links to the matches when there are official and free broadcasts.

Sources:
Official website: https://www.conmebollibertadores.com/
You can check the schedule HERE
Previous thread HERE

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[rdluffy]

I'll reserve this post to make updates, post links to the matches etc

Odds of the top teams to be 2023 champion:

Flamengo 4.50
Palmeiras 5.00
River Plate   8.00
Boca Juniors 10.00
Atlético-MG 13.00
Corinthians 15.00
Fluminense 20.00
Internacional 20.00
Athletico-PR 30.00
Racing 30.00

Source HERE

Edit3:

[Lucasgabd]

cool thread!
If I was beating for the most probable one I'd beat Palmeiras will be the champion
but since I like underdogs I'll just say Boca Juniors will win this time
let's see

any idea what are the best websites to bet on it?
maybe duelbits itself?

[alegotardo]

I hadn't seen this thread yet.
Thanks @rdluffy for opening it and also for letting me know by DM.

Well... despite being the biggest football championship in Latin America, I confess that don't follow it as much as the European championships and I believe that the rest of the world doesn't give it as much relevance either.

It isnt wonder that Conmebol is discredited on the international scene for hosting these sporting events, in my humble opinion, it's quite incompetent and disorganized, because every year something goes wrong.
This year, for example, they postponed the date of the Final game and this certainly caused a lot of inconvenience for those who had already bought tickets, booked their hotel, flights, time off work...

But anyway, I hope that the title goes to a Brazilian team again.

[rdluffy]

cool thread!
If I was beating for the most probable one I'd beat Palmeiras will be the champion
but since I like underdogs I'll just say Boca Juniors will win this time
let's see

any idea what are the best websites to bet on it?
maybe duelbits itself?

I think Palmeiras is the favorite here, just like in Brasileirao, but as you said, there's some teams hard to beat, even in bad situtations teams like Boca Junior are tough for brazilians.
You can use DuelBits, just go to this link and type Libertadores to find all the matches available to bet: https://duelbits.com/sportsbook/home/soccer

Take a look here:


If I remember well, you're a fan of Internacional right? The team is doing good until now, 1 victory and 1 draw, but my Corinthians is not in a good situation, they lost playing in home and now the road will be hard.

I hadn't seen this thread yet.
Thanks @rdluffy for opening it and also for letting me know by DM.

Well... despite being the biggest football championship in Latin America, I confess that don't follow it as much as the European championships and I believe that the rest of the world doesn't give it as much relevance either.

It isnt wonder that Conmebol is discredited on the international scene for hosting these sporting events, in my humble opinion, it's quite incompetent and disorganized, because every year something goes wrong.
This year, for example, they postponed the date of the Final game and this certainly caused a lot of inconvenience for those who had already bought tickets, booked their hotel, flights, time off work...

But anyway, I hope that the title goes to a Brazilian team again.

I can see, it's hard to draw attention to this championship hahaha, but I can guarantee there's a lot of emotion here and memorable matches.
Maybe you guys can watch the games from the round of 16 on, specially if the teams are Brazil vs Argentina 
It is a different competition than in Europe for example where it is more organized, but the countries are richer and have rich soccer leagues.
In South America there are still countries where professional soccer doesn't have that much money and can't get a decent organization.

There's a great chance to have a Brazilian champion, specially Palmeiras, Flamengo and now Fluminense playing in high level again.


If anyone wants good betting tips, I can post the tips and a brief analysis here.
I'm already saying that for the next round I'll place a bet on Corinthians' victory, paying 1.82, playing at home, I believe it's a good odd.

[Lucasgabd]

thanks @rdluffy
cool stuff

actually I don't have any team
as a child a used to have it influenced by my father but then I grew up not carrying for football that much

so I have no idea why you thought I'm a fan of international hahaha

[Slow death]

The Brazilian teams did not start well in this season's Libertadores, Palmeiras had a defeat against Bolivar, which is a team from the Bolivian League, honestly, despite Bolivar being in second place in the Bolivian League, I don't see Bolivar as a much superior team. To Palmeiras, the Bolivian League is much lower than the Brazilian League, I understand that in the Palmeiras game against Bolivar, the Palmeiras player received a red card in the 44th minute and this had a great negative impact on the Palmeiras team and in the minute a following, palmeiras conceded the second goal, but in the 52nd minute bolivar also suffered a red card and with that they also had 10 players on the field

with 40 minutes still to be played and each team with 10 players on the pitch, palmeiras could have at least managed to get out of this game with a draw, but instead of scoring another goal and leveling the game, they conceded the third goal in the 89th minute, With that, Palmeiras lost. then came the second game in which palmeiras won the game, but again it was not an easy game for palmeiras who were losing after just 5 minutes, looking at the current performance of palmeiras, I would say that they would hardly win the Conmebol Libertadores and I also very much doubt that Palmeiras will be able to beat the Brazilian this season

[Lucasgabd]

The Brazilian teams did not start well in this season's Libertadores, Palmeiras had a defeat against Bolivar, which is a team from the Bolivian League, honestly, despite Bolivar being in second place in the Bolivian League, I don't see Bolivar as a much superior team. To Palmeiras, the Bolivian League is much lower than the Brazilian League, I understand that in the Palmeiras game against Bolivar, the Palmeiras player received a red card in the 44th minute and this had a great negative impact on the Palmeiras team and in the minute a following, palmeiras conceded the second goal, but in the 52nd minute bolivar also suffered a red card and with that they also had 10 players on the field

with 40 minutes still to be played and each team with 10 players on the pitch, palmeiras could have at least managed to get out of this game with a draw, but instead of scoring another goal and leveling the game, they conceded the third goal in the 89th minute, With that, Palmeiras lost. then came the second game in which palmeiras won the game, but again it was not an easy game for palmeiras who were losing after just 5 minutes, looking at the current performance of palmeiras, I would say that they would hardly win the Conmebol Libertadores and I also very much doubt that Palmeiras will be able to beat the Brazilian this season

hat do you mean by: "Beat the Brazilian?"
I didn't understand

The championship is just getting started, still too early to make assumptions.
even if Palmeiras didn't perform well yet it can bounce back in the upcoming games
Anything can happen, bro.

Let's wait and see how the season unfolds before making any definitive statements about who will come out on top.

[swogerino]

The Brazilian teams did not start well in this season's Libertadores, Palmeiras had a defeat against Bolivar, which is a team from the Bolivian League, honestly, despite Bolivar being in second place in the Bolivian League, I don't see Bolivar as a much superior team. To Palmeiras, the Bolivian League is much lower than the Brazilian League, I understand that in the Palmeiras game against Bolivar, the Palmeiras player received a red card in the 44th minute and this had a great negative impact on the Palmeiras team and in the minute a following, palmeiras conceded the second goal, but in the 52nd minute bolivar also suffered a red card and with that they also had 10 players on the field

with 40 minutes still to be played and each team with 10 players on the pitch, palmeiras could have at least managed to get out of this game with a draw, but instead of scoring another goal and leveling the game, they conceded the third goal in the 89th minute, With that, Palmeiras lost. then came the second game in which palmeiras won the game, but again it was not an easy game for palmeiras who were losing after just 5 minutes, looking at the current performance of palmeiras, I would say that they would hardly win the Conmebol Libertadores and I also very much doubt that Palmeiras will be able to beat the Brazilian this season

I am sure that the Brazilian teams will recover as their league Serie A has just started with only a couple of games played so most teams have not reached their peak form while other South American leagues are already over 13-14 games and as such their physical form is in much better shape than those of Brazilian teams.I have been losing a couple of bets here by betting on Brazilian teams but I am confident that still Brazilian teams are the ones to beat compared to a majority of other league participants here,only River Plate from Argentina can be a threat as they are good this year but overall the best teams are still from Brazil.

[Lucasgabd]

The Brazilian teams did not start well in this season's Libertadores, Palmeiras had a defeat against Bolivar, which is a team from the Bolivian League, honestly, despite Bolivar being in second place in the Bolivian League, I don't see Bolivar as a much superior team. To Palmeiras, the Bolivian League is much lower than the Brazilian League, I understand that in the Palmeiras game against Bolivar, the Palmeiras player received a red card in the 44th minute and this had a great negative impact on the Palmeiras team and in the minute a following, palmeiras conceded the second goal, but in the 52nd minute bolivar also suffered a red card and with that they also had 10 players on the field

with 40 minutes still to be played and each team with 10 players on the pitch, palmeiras could have at least managed to get out of this game with a draw, but instead of scoring another goal and leveling the game, they conceded the third goal in the 89th minute, With that, Palmeiras lost. then came the second game in which palmeiras won the game, but again it was not an easy game for palmeiras who were losing after just 5 minutes, looking at the current performance of palmeiras, I would say that they would hardly win the Conmebol Libertadores and I also very much doubt that Palmeiras will be able to beat the Brazilian this season

I am sure that the Brazilian teams will recover as their league Serie A has just started with only a couple of games played so most teams have not reached their peak form while other South American leagues are already over 13-14 games and as such their physical form is in much better shape than those of Brazilian teams.I have been losing a couple of bets here by betting on Brazilian teams but I am confident that still Brazilian teams are the ones to beat compared to a majority of other league participants here,only River Plate from Argentina can be a threat as they are good this year but overall the best teams are still from Brazil.

yes, Brazil is usually quite good and I'd probably keep betting on Brazilian's teams over other teams to be honest
there are other good teams of course, like even Boca Juniors that we mentioned here before

what are the next games you are betting on?

[rdluffy]

so I have no idea why you thought I'm a fan of international hahaha

I'm sorry Lucasgabd, I thought it was you, but I think it's @alegotardo who supports Internacional, I remember that in last year's thread about Brasileirao some user commented that he was Inter fan hehehe.
If I have time I'll do some search in the last year's thread and try to find 

what are the next games you are betting on?

Today is Corinthians match day, I'm going to watch and probably bet
Besides being an extremely important match for Corinthians (as they lost the last game), it is the debut of coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo.
For those interested, the match will be shown on the Paramount+ streaming service

Here are the odds from today's matches:


I see great opportunity to bet on Corinthians and Fluminense victories, both brazilian teams will face strong opponents (specially Fluminense), but playing at home, it has everything to get a victory
Fluminense has been playing very well lately and is focused on the Libertadores, even spared players in the last match of the Brazilian Championship
And Corinthians finally with an experienced and respected coach, has everything to start with a good result and be able to keep safe for the classification for the next round of Libertadores, if the team loses it will be disastrous
That is why I think that betting on both teams today is a good opportunity.

[swogerino]

The odd for Corinthians looks really appealing at near 2 while they are playing at home and usually Brazilian teams play very well when playing in front of the home crowd.I don't think Ind.De Valle is a great team or a great threat to Corinthians as Corinthians is doing relatively well also in the Serie A so far.I would bet a lot of money on Corinthians in tonight game as I doubt very much a team from Ecuador no matter how strong they may be to be causing problems to Corinthians tonight if Corinthians plays seriously and since the new coach debut is in this game most likely this will be an extra motivation to the team to win.

The fact that Corinthians lost at home against one team in the last places in Liga Professional in Argentina is what holds me back from betting a lot of money on Corinthians but most likely they will win tonight.

[alegotardo]

The odd for Corinthians looks really appealing at near 2 while they are playing at home and usually Brazilian teams play very well when playing in front of the home crowd.I don't think Ind.De Valle is a great team or a great threat to Corinthians as Corinthians is doing relatively well also in the Serie A so far.I would bet a lot of money on Corinthians in tonight game as I doubt very much a team from Ecuador no matter how strong they may be to be causing problems to Corinthians tonight if Corinthians plays seriously and since the new coach debut is in this game most likely this will be an extra motivation to the team to win.

Well, if I didn't get the count wrong I think that in this game Corinthians will debut the fourth different coach... it's practically one every game... but I'm betting that this time Crinthians will beat Ind. Del Valle under coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo, even for playing at home.

Corinthians needs to win, as they are tied with Ind. Del Valle in second place in group E with exactly 30 points.

I like to relive history, so I researched the last time they faced each other... it was in 2019 for the Copa Sudamericana and the Ind. Del Valle in 2019 and the Ecuadorians came out with the victory

[Lucasgabd]

so I have no idea why you thought I'm a fan of international hahaha

I'm sorry Lucasgabd, I thought it was you, but I think it's @alegotardo who supports Internacional, I remember that in last year's thread about Brasileirao some user commented that he was Inter fan hehehe.
If I have time I'll do some search in the last year's thread and try to find 

what are the next games you are betting on?

Today is Corinthians match day, I'm going to watch and probably bet
Besides being an extremely important match for Corinthians (as they lost the last game), it is the debut of coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo.
For those interested, the match will be shown on the Paramount+ streaming service

Here are the odds from today's matches:


I see great opportunity to bet on Corinthians and Fluminense victories, both brazilian teams will face strong opponents (specially Fluminense), but playing at home, it has everything to get a victory
Fluminense has been playing very well lately and is focused on the Libertadores, even spared players in the last match of the Brazilian Championship
And Corinthians finally with an experienced and respected coach, has everything to start with a good result and be able to keep safe for the classification for the next round of Libertadores, if the team loses it will be disastrous
That is why I think that betting on both teams today is a good opportunity.

haha no problem at all
in reality I'm not a big fan of soccer, even in the last world cup I ended up not watching any game at all
in the day Brazil lost I was in the beach, it was an amazing sunny day, I could hear some people screaming because of the game, but so far away...

[rdluffy]

The fact that Corinthians lost at home against one team in the last places in Liga Professional in Argentina is what holds me back from betting a lot of money on Corinthians but most likely they will win tonight.

I don't know what is going on with the Corinthians team, even though we thought that at least this match we were going to win, they ended up losing against Independiente del Valle, playing at home.
The team is on the verge of failure in this Libertadores, as they lost two games at home, now I think the only way to classify is to win the remaining 3 matches, make 9 points and be at least the second place.
It will be hard, because Corinthians will play against this same team and Argentino Juniors in their countries.
Let's hope the new coach will find a way to put the team on track again.

Well, if I didn't get the count wrong I think that in this game Corinthians will debut the fourth different coach... it's practically one every game... but I'm betting that this time Crinthians will beat Ind. Del Valle under coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo, even for playing at home.

So, we all thought about Corinthians victory, and we all lost the bets
alegotardo, I asked Lucasgabd but I think it's you that is a fan of Internacional right?

haha no problem at all
in reality I'm not a big fan of soccer, even in the last world cup I ended up not watching any game at all
in the day Brazil lost I was in the beach, it was an amazing sunny day, I could hear some people screaming because of the game, but so far away...

Thanks, I think it's alegotardo, I asked him 

[Ulven]

We have a good chance with odds of 2.24 offered by betting agents for Flamengo's away match. I don't think I will miss this opportunity, especially since brasil and argentine clubs are performing well in this tournament. Where can I follow this match? Please share a link if available. I have tried searching on Google, but without success.

[alegotardo]

I firmly bet on Internacional's victory over Nacional, but I believe that no fan was expecting that Noguera goal in stoppage time

Nacional now has a good moment, with 7 games undefeated and remains at the top of the group with two victories in the competition.

Internacional, on the other hand, need to play better, but I believe that the problem is mainly in the coaching staff, which isn't managing to properly manage the players in all the championships that the club competes in. After all, only now in May there will be 8 matches in a period of just 27 days between the Brasileirão, Copa do Brasil and Libertadores.
Which championship and which players to prioritize

[Lucasgabd]

The fact that Corinthians lost at home against one team in the last places in Liga Professional in Argentina is what holds me back from betting a lot of money on Corinthians but most likely they will win tonight.

I don't know what is going on with the Corinthians team, even though we thought that at least this match we were going to win, they ended up losing against Independiente del Valle, playing at home.
The team is on the verge of failure in this Libertadores, as they lost two games at home, now I think the only way to classify is to win the remaining 3 matches, make 9 points and be at least the second place.
It will be hard, because Corinthians will play against this same team and Argentino Juniors in their countries.
Let's hope the new coach will find a way to put the team on track again.

Well, if I didn't get the count wrong I think that in this game Corinthians will debut the fourth different coach... it's practically one every game... but I'm betting that this time Crinthians will beat Ind. Del Valle under coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo, even for playing at home.

So, we all thought about Corinthians victory, and we all lost the bets
alegotardo, I asked Lucasgabd but I think it's you that is a fan of Internacional right?

haha no problem at all
in reality I'm not a big fan of soccer, even in the last world cup I ended up not watching any game at all
in the day Brazil lost I was in the beach, it was an amazing sunny day, I could hear some people screaming because of the game, but so far away...

Thanks, I think it's alegotardo, I asked him 

Now I'm curious about it too

We have a good chance with odds of 2.24 offered by betting agents for Flamengo's away match. I don't think I will miss this opportunity, especially since brasil and argentine clubs are performing well in this tournament. Where can I follow this match? Please share a link if available. I have tried searching on Google, but without success.

problably on globo websites you can watch it
they're often streaming it but sometimes it's a paid stream, not sure

I found this website too but couldn't verify it's legit

https://www.livesoccertv.com/competitions/international/copa-libertadores/

anyone else has suggestions on that?

[Slow death]

Result of today's games:

Deportivo Pereira 2 - 1 Monagas

probably if there hadn't been the draw that benefited Deportivo Pereira then the game would have ended in a draw, and with this result it puts Deportivo Pereira in the second position in the table, when I saw the highlight videos of this game I confess that I couldn't stop laughing , these two teams wasted many good opportunities to score goals, they were mistakes that have not been made in the premier league or la liga or bundesliiga

Libertad 1 - 2 Athletico - PR

it was a game in which Liberdad scored the first goal after 10 minutes, Athletico's goalkeeper handed it to the opponent, it was a very serious mistake, and caught all defense off guard, that's why they suffered that goal at 10 minutes, but Athletico didn't stand still and they reacted but it's impressive how they missed a lot, it's true that they scored 2 goals, but if they were more effective they would have scored a lot of goals on both sides

Patronato 4 - 1 Melgar

I don't have much to comment on this game, both teams came into this game with a negative result, so it was a game with a very unpredictable result, I also think that these two teams will not make it very far

Racing 1 - 1 Flamengo

honestly Flamengo is in an endless decay, they were playing against an opponent who at 26 minutes was reduced to 10 players, even so Flamengo after winning the game went to shit and took red and a goal, it's unbelievable how Flamengo is in decline after Jorge Jesus left

[rdluffy]

We have a good chance with odds of 2.24 offered by betting agents for Flamengo's away match. I don't think I will miss this opportunity, especially since brasil and argentine clubs are performing well in this tournament. Where can I follow this match? Please share a link if available. I have tried searching on Google, but without success.

Sorry Ulven, I didn't see your post in time, but for next matches I'll try to find the stream to watch the matches, it's not easy because it's not only streamed in a unique place, last match of Corinthians for example I watched on Paramount + channel

Internacional, on the other hand, need to play better, but I believe that the problem is mainly in the coaching staff, which isn't managing to properly manage the players in all the championships that the club competes in. After all, only now in May there will be 8 matches in a period of just 27 days between the Brasileirão, Copa do Brasil and Libertadores.
Which championship and which players to prioritize

It's not easy for any team to manage Brasileirão + Copa do Brasil + Libertadores
In my opinion Inter is doing well, 2nd place in their group of Libertadores and 4th place in Brasileiro. The last result against Nacional was not that bad, since Nacional is a good team and it's in 1st place of group.
I hope you didn't lose any money on that match hehehe.

In your opinion, which championship your team will prioritize?
Corinthians, will not prioritize anything at this moment, my team is doing bad in both championships and desperately needs to win in both

anyone else has suggestions on that?

I'll check later about the options of stream

honestly Flamengo is in an endless decay, they were playing against an opponent who at 26 minutes was reduced to 10 players, even so Flamengo after winning the game went to shit and took red and a goal, it's unbelievable how Flamengo is in decline after Jorge Jesus left

Good points, I'll comment only in Flamengo's match, and it's impressive how the team's performance dropped, being almost the same team as the year before, when they were very victorious, but this year it seems that nothing works out.
It seems that the coach makes much more difference than they think, and if they take too long to get right, it may be too late for Libertadores and even the Brazilian championship.